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Robert Shrum

Robert Shrum

Posted: September 26, 2008 10:51 PM

We Now Know Who the Next President Will Be


My friend Tim Russert, who didn't pull his words, famously said on the night of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries: "I think we now know who the Democratic nominee will be." Tonight I think we know who the next President will be.

The debate was a crossroads. For two weeks, John McCain has lurched down a dead-end road on the economy, from happy talk about "sound fundamentals" to gloom about economic crisis; alternately out of touch, confused and self-contradictory; then desperately reaching for another stunt with his blundering, transparently opportunistic intrusion into the financial rescue negotiations which crimped his debate prep. He clearly could have used more.

Barack Obama was crisp, reassuring and strong -- in short, presidential, as he has been throughout the financial storm of the past two weeks. McCain was not as bad as he has been recently; but much of this debate was fought on what was supposed to be his high ground. As the encounter ended, Obama not only controlled the commanding heights of the economic issue -- and he not only held his own on national security -- but clearly passed the threshold as a credible commander-in-chief. McCain kept repeating that Obama doesn't "understand." But he clearly did. McCain made up no ground. That's similar to what happened in 1960 when Nixon ran on the slogan "Experience Counts" but found it didn't count that much when voters decided JFK was up to the job after the side by side comparison they saw in the first debate.

So what does McCain have left? Behind on the economy, no longer able to slip into the White House on the now disproven claim that only he can handle national security, he has two more debates but no big offer to the country. And then there's the VP debate -- which is likely to be seen as the peril of Palin. (Can't they give her a basic briefing, maybe in a spiral notebook -- or is it too much to read and too hard to remember?)

McCain has nowhere to go but stunts, warmed over stump lines, and lying ads -- which pollute his brand more than they hurt Obama, and the ugly hope that backlash may save his feckless campaign. The press will mostly miss the point: Obama met and surpassed the test.

Read more reactions to the first presidential debate from HuffPost bloggers, including Nora Ephron, Madeleine Albright, Paul Reiser, Arianna Huffington, Sean Penn, Sheryl Crow, and more.


My friend Tim Russert, who didn't pull his words, famously said on the night of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries: "I think we now know who the Democratic nominee will be." Tonight I think we k...
My friend Tim Russert, who didn't pull his words, famously said on the night of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries: "I think we now know who the Democratic nominee will be." Tonight I think we k...
 
 
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08:08 PM on 09/29/2008
Look, I'm not saying McCain won't be a great president someday, just not now. Maybe in a few more years.
05:02 PM on 09/29/2008
I think there are few Americans who are truly racists who would never vote for a person of another culture, race or religion no matter what. I think there are some people who never thought they would vote for Barack Obama just last week who will vote for him in November.
11:12 PM on 09/29/2008
Nice!
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Manchurian
With Liberty and Justice for All
03:51 PM on 09/30/2008
Robert Shrum's mention of Kennedy-Nixon illustrates a good point. Just as 1960 was the time when Americans embraced a Catholic candidate, 2008 can and very may will be the year when Americans embrace a mixed-race candidate.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
pakaal
Pigs, in cages, on antibiotics
03:39 PM on 09/29/2008
"And then there's the VP debate -- which is likely to be seen as the peril of Palin. (Can't they give her a basic briefing, maybe in a spiral notebook -- or is it too much to read and too hard to remember?)"

Does no one else here think Palin is now getting the finest briefings, using the most modern technology and advisors, not to mention performance-enhancing supplements in order to get her as ready as possible for the debates? The Republicans should surely be able to find top-quality people to prep her for the debate. The problem is that she may simply not be capable of assimilating that much info that quickly. I also assume that if they decide she can't, they're going to go to Plan B - what that is, I'm not sure, but assume it includes lots of Neocon talking points, repeated ad nauseum.
05:00 PM on 09/29/2008
Other than implanting a chip in her brain or replacing her with a robot, there's no prep that will suddenly make her an intelligent, thoughtful or capable person. what we should be worried about is how the repugs will cheat--cow Biden & the moderator into letting Palin's startling incompetence go unchallenged yet again.
10:04 PM on 09/29/2008
You guys are all SO WRONG ABOUT PALIN. She learned about Russia by seeing it from Alaska. So, I imagine that she will be an expert on economy by debate time, because I am sure she is staring very hard at a dollar bill and a picture of the bull in front of the NY stock exchange. For foreign policy knowledge, this time she is probably staring at an entire globe. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH for any VP candidate.
11:14 PM on 09/29/2008
Lol!

Rumor has it she will have a mic in her hair/behind her ear. Rove thinks of everything!
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Manchurian
With Liberty and Justice for All
03:54 PM on 09/30/2008
The best bet on the part of the Republicans may be to pay Tina Fey a gizzilion dollars to impersonate Palin.
12:20 PM on 09/29/2008
The red states people aren't as stupid as everyone things they are.
(meaning, they are actually following things unfold, reconsidering,
and will not vote for McCain.)
Many will be voting for Obama ! Everyone I know , is.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
OkieIntellectual
I AM the atheist in the foxhole.
04:14 PM on 09/29/2008
You must not know any hardcore right-wingers then. Consider yourself lucky, most of my family are of that ilk, and they're... well, I don't like to talk bad about family, but they're FREAKING BUG-NUTS!! Seriously, I've tried to talk to them and what I figured out is that they KNOW McCain is a dangerous choice, they KNOW that Palin doesn't know her rear end from a hole in the ground, but they are loyal to the party. That's all that matters to them. They literally see the Democratic party as an enemy, one who should be given no quarter ever, one who should be defeated at all costs.

Oh and then there's the religious rhetoric. OMG, you'd think they were Islamic extremists ranting about Jihad... no seriously, I don't see any difference. They seem to think that voting Democrat shows a weakness of their faith and a lack of personal character.

I should probably point out that I am the only person in my family with a college education. Come to think of it, most of them either dropped out of or just barely graduated from High School. I don't know if that really has anything to do with it, I'm just sayin'... :)
05:44 PM on 09/29/2008
Same here.....it's an uphill battle with some. With others, they just never get it. Or if they DO get it, they'll never admit it. They "go down with the ship", calling it Patriotism. Some of the idiocy that I hear makes me seriously question these folks' mental stability...
06:22 PM on 09/29/2008
Sadly, everyone in my right-wing immediate family is college educated, & the most irrational right-winger of them all has a masters degree. Ditto everything you said, especially the religious rhetoric. It's what worries me the most, because a lot of people in this country vote the same way as they do. It went to new levels with Dubya's first presidential campaign. That's when they really started associating "Republican" with "Christian". Now it's like that link has always been there (it hasn't; I remember them in the 80's & 90's & they weren't like this), & it'd be like converting to Buddhism to leave the Republican party.
10:04 AM on 09/29/2008
Remember the headlines: Dewey Wins! Held up by President Harry Truman.

Also, remember Reagan being 15 points or so behind Jimmy Carter in August?

Bush losing all the debates to Kerry?

Bush losing all the debates to Gore?

Daddy Bush being significantly behind Dukakis?

McCain being out of the primary race.

Hillary being a slam dunk winner before the primaries.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
KatieHW
12:39 PM on 09/29/2008
Yeah, Bush lost the dabates with Gore and Kerry. And he was elected despite an abundance of evidence that he shouldn't have. Maybe voters have learned a few things, like if it walks and quacks like a duck, it's a duck (not a good sign for a presidency).
And McCain just keeps right on quacking....
02:22 PM on 09/29/2008
Bush didn't lose all the debates with Kerry. The third debate was considered a win for him in that he looked a lot better than in the first two.

And so sorry, Bush didn't win either election honestly. SCOTUS stole the first one for him, Diebold the second.
06:24 PM on 09/29/2008
"And he was elected despite an abundance of evidence that he shouldn't have."

Make that "he was put into office despite an abundance of evidence that he was not elected"
01:52 PM on 09/29/2008
Funny you should mention Reagan v. Carter, since the exact reasons the people gave up on Carter are now going to be the reasons the people give up on the Republicans...

I'm thinking right about November 5th you'll be able to add 'McCain leading Obama in August' to your list of examples of why the race isn't over until the votes are counted...

You also might not want to site GWB in 2000 as an example of someone WINNING an election. Any ties this year are going to go to the party controlling the House... McCain can't rely on a tie putting him in the Oval Office.

FWIW, SOME of us NEVER though Hillary was going to win the primaries.
03:03 AM on 09/29/2008
The only chance McCain has is "Bradley Effect". McCain better hope this country is still racist. That is all he has.
10:05 AM on 09/29/2008
Do you include fellow democrats in that assessment?
11:25 AM on 09/29/2008
I have one word for that, first - "UNCOUNTED."
10:18 AM on 09/29/2008
Or to abuse the electoral college.
01:28 AM on 09/29/2008
The only problem is that pesky little "technical glitch" we never bothered to sort out with Diebold.
09:21 AM on 09/29/2008
I thought the only imaginable problem that could derail Obama would be some racy Scarlett Johanson-Obama expose. But it looks like problem solved, I think we are all on the O-train to Jan 20!

honk honk
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Minnehaha
Ohio Buckeye
12:07 AM on 09/29/2008
McCain is stuck in the past. His premise for continuing the war is based on the reactions of Americans to the soldiers that fought in Vietnam. When the soldiers returned from Vietnam they were not treated with much respect. Because so many Americans were against the war. He does not understand that We (as a people) are much more sophisticated, and honor the service preformed by our military. He continues to talk about victory, he never mentions the young men and women that are injured and killed. All he is concerned about is Victory. Mr. McCain at what cost ? He is not a person concerned with Troops, or they would not have these young folks doing two or three war zone rotations. I don't ever recall our military being used like this.
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fishgirl26
Flyfishing Montana Native:)
10:30 AM on 09/29/2008
not to mention the fact he never said what "victory" was. I think he's so much ego that he doesn't understand that we CANNOT AFFORD to stay there any longer!!! He wants to stay there, what do yousay to him and Cindy financing things for a while. Or give up one of their homes for the dismembered to recover???
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Willow712
democratic socialst
08:33 PM on 09/29/2008
Or even allow a train to go through Arizona with a car filled with nuclear waste. He wants all the nuclear waste to go to Yucca Mountain in NEvada, but refuses to let the train go through Arizona. I say if nuclear waste is so safe, why not use his back "40" for disposal?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ConnieInCleveland
One Lonely Voice trying to make a difference
11:29 PM on 09/28/2008
I don't think the debates mean a thing. Al Gore danced on George W. and the 'talking heads' danced on Al Gore. Mainstream media spun ordinary Americans into thinking they wanted a President, they could have a beer with? Even though that person was a born again drunk. Supposedly he had given up drinking.

Mainstream media is going to spin John McCain and Palin just like they did George W. Oh, they may fake like they are not, but they will grab onto any facts which are in John McCain's favor. They are spinning Palin as a "Mom". Who could be against "Mom"? My husband used to say, "if you want anything, just add "moms".

Mainstream media are right wing enablers. They haven't changed and I don't think they will. No one holds them accountable for distorting instead of reporting. As long as they are able to distort the truth, ordinary Americans are victims of disinformation. The majority of people are too busy to research facts, they count on the nightly news to tell them what they need to hear. Sad thing is they still trust the spinners. SAD! SAD! SAD!
12:39 AM on 09/29/2008
You see "sad sad sad" - sorry you're not enjoying the positives that have been happening pretty frequently over the past several months in spite of the Rethug efforts to hold us fast in their wicked past.

I see "hope hope hope" for an ultimate celebration. O'bama/B'iden and the entire Demo'cratic movement are even getting some shocking (if begrudging) respect from more talking heads and networks than ever before.

I and a whole lot of other people can hardly wait for the next debate - but since you don't think they mean a thing, I don't suppose you'll bother to watch...
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newhouse1
Democracy Is Worth The Effort
01:36 AM on 09/29/2008
ConnieInCleveland, do not despair. You have more than ample reason to be cynical and jaded. The MSM does not give a straight accounting of facts, and bends truths, in an effort to make the election a horse-race with drama and suspense favoring commercial ad spending. It's what pays their bills. The media in the last 3 election cycles have turned Daniel Patrick Moynihan's axiom on its head, where he stated: "Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but everyone is not entitled to their own facts."

Be that as it is, even the MSM has to yield to the current state of our nation and the opportunity to make it whole. There will be plenty of manufactured drama for the MSM to promote regarding a President Obama, as well as the remedies and inevitable challenges we will face in the next 4 years. But even this strain of MSM contempt for facts and fact checking is innoculated against the possibility of a Palin VP or McCain hothead 4-year virus. They live here too.
10:44 PM on 09/28/2008
You are right, Mr. Shrum. There was one person on stage who appeared to be and thought like an American president. Mr. Obama was intelligent, rational, diplomatic, and understanding of past practices and appreciative of the challenges of the future.

The other person diminished himself further by his negativity, drama, repetition, and erratic behaviors. He is chained to the past and exhibits no knowledge of having learned from past bad decisions.
10:27 PM on 09/28/2008
McCain's entire campaign has been to say Obama isn't ready. In one night Obama proved him wrong.

Barack Obama is intelligent, level-headed, professional, and inspiring.

McCain is none of these.

If the people don't see that, our country is much further gone than I think.

Palin notwithstanding.
10:13 AM on 09/29/2008
The "change" candidate is dragging people along with him who really don't want to look at history as a prologue for the future.

Unfortunately, for democrats, democratic nominees have won the debates in the past two elections. Kerry beat Bush, and Gore beat Bush.

You remember them. President Kerry and President Gore.

And VP candidate Quayle was pilloried often before Daddy Bsh beat the democrats.
11:47 AM on 09/29/2008
AND HOW IS YOUR 401K DOING LATELY.......FOUND A JOB YET????
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
toppergem
11:54 AM on 09/29/2008
But remember when you have to steal an election you get the mess you have going on in the United States right now. GW Bush was an idiot then and he is a bigger idiot now.
And McCain is his clone.
09:33 PM on 09/28/2008
SENATOR OBAMA WAS NOT PERFECT BUT HE DID WHAT WAS MOST IMPORTANT--HE LOOKED AND TALKED AND THOUGHT LIKE A PRESIDENT SHOULD--WE HAVE HAD EIGHT YEARS OF DOUBLE TALK AND NOW WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO REALITY AND COMMON SENSE
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
RButler
I've always wanted to have everything I wanted
10:14 PM on 09/28/2008
"looked and talked a and thought like a president"???? Who are you referring to. Bush. Reagan. Carter. Ford, Nixon, LBJ. Martin Sheen? You guys are living in a make believe world. You don't want to compare him to JFK or Clinton do ya? They, uh, fooled around if you recall.
10:46 PM on 09/28/2008
So did McCain.
10:21 AM on 09/29/2008
"like a president SHOULD"
Not like a president HAS.
Besides, I've got no problem with people fooling around on the side, as long as they don't author legislation that makes what they are doing illegal (Craig). It's between them and their partners.
OBAMA/BIDEN '08
08:19 PM on 09/28/2008
After the debate I was proud of Obama mentioning the middle class. Throughout the debate he kept focusing on strengthen America. First we need to fix things here and in order to restore the relationships aboard. Brillant! Also, he told the TRUTH about his record for voting against funding for the troops. McCain never once informed the public that he also voted against funding as well, Only that Obama did because he doesn't believe in them. Intentionally distorting the fact that it was "a time table issue" and not "a supporting the troops issue." "Keep lying about my record and I'll tell the truth about yours." Yes Obama did! YES WE CAN, find out how sneaky McCain can be. Obama showed that he can be a skillful TRUTHFUL politician.

Obama/Biden 08
Florida
HUFFPOST PUNDIT
RButler
I've always wanted to have everything I wanted
10:21 PM on 09/28/2008
Obama supporters have been harping on that 'middle class' business since the debate. Obama should have spelled it for them. They are so dense. M-i-d-d-l-e c-l-a-s-s. There. What else do you need spelled out?

They had to have the word 'change' drilled into them for the last 20 months as anyone who proposed any new or different policies didn't register in their pea brains as 'change'. Ya see. I'm going to take off the shirt I'm wearing and put on a different shirt. But, then I'd have to explain to the Obama people that I'm 'changing' shirts so they understand. God. They're allowed to vote.
10:25 AM on 09/29/2008
Ding! Ding! Ding!
We have a winner for most useless and poorly formed thought of the day!!!!!

We'd love to give you our usual gift of a Bush/Cheney button, but you'll have to make do with this McCain/Palin sticker instead.


But being serious, what the heck are you trying to say? Or were you going for dribble?
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KayCo
08:04 PM on 09/28/2008
No matter how impressive and intelligent Obama appeared, I still plan to vote for him. Unfortunately in this red state I live in, people are going to turn a blind eye to all the signs that McCain and Palin are not and should not be elected, and vote for 'em anyway. Some of the people I work with think that McCain based on his prior POW status, cannot do anything wrong. We elected Bush twice and I know that our state is going to be red. I read on a website that "it is not even in play".

I still plan to vote for Obama and will cheer with the rest of the country when he wins. I'm just sorry that my state will not be one of the ones that are "blue"
09:09 PM on 09/28/2008
You never know how many are out there like you....maybe people are afraid to say they plan to vote Obama cuz it's "not cool" where you are, but trust me...you're not alone, and even if you think it may not matter, Obama needs your vote. Have faith my fellow red stater. Intelligent leadership can and WILL prevail on 11/4!
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BrickSykes
"Professor, Harvard; Chess Mixmaster
11:16 PM on 09/28/2008
You know, we could both be living in the same state! I agree with Miss Edith, though, because I've talked to some former Bush supporters in my neighborhood, and they're addressing it sort of generally, and they seem to be leaning away from any further Republican involvement. They're embarrassed.

Brick
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toppergem
12:00 PM on 09/29/2008
There are many people in those red states who will be voting Obama. They may not make a public acknowledgement of who they are voting for because of the way they feel the community will treat them. But, when they go in their voting booth and cast their ballot, that is when they will vote OBAMA. Sometime there is nothing wrong with keeping your move close to your breast...noone has to know who you vote for just vote your conviction.
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RumiSouth
Caerbannog!
07:54 PM on 09/28/2008
McCain did himself no favors Friday night. Pundits may parse to their hearts' content, pretending this was a boxing match with a scorecard; but it wasn't. Presidential debates never are. Just look at the way Al Gore "won" all three debates with Bush, but damaged his candidacy by coming across as an impatient know-it-all jerk. McCain came across that way the other night, and it will prove the undoing of his candidacy.