We Now Know Who the Next President Will Be
My friend Tim Russert, who didn't pull his words, famously said on the night of the North Carolina and Indiana primaries: "I think we now know who the Democratic nominee will be." Tonight I think we know who the next President will be.
The debate was a crossroads. For two weeks, John McCain has lurched down a dead-end road on the economy, from happy talk about "sound fundamentals" to gloom about economic crisis; alternately out of touch, confused and self-contradictory; then desperately reaching for another stunt with his blundering, transparently opportunistic intrusion into the financial rescue negotiations which crimped his debate prep. He clearly could have used more.
Barack Obama was crisp, reassuring and strong -- in short, presidential, as he has been throughout the financial storm of the past two weeks. McCain was not as bad as he has been recently; but much of this debate was fought on what was supposed to be his high ground. As the encounter ended, Obama not only controlled the commanding heights of the economic issue -- and he not only held his own on national security -- but clearly passed the threshold as a credible commander-in-chief. McCain kept repeating that Obama doesn't "understand." But he clearly did. McCain made up no ground. That's similar to what happened in 1960 when Nixon ran on the slogan "Experience Counts" but found it didn't count that much when voters decided JFK was up to the job after the side by side comparison they saw in the first debate.
So what does McCain have left? Behind on the economy, no longer able to slip into the White House on the now disproven claim that only he can handle national security, he has two more debates but no big offer to the country. And then there's the VP debate -- which is likely to be seen as the peril of Palin. (Can't they give her a basic briefing, maybe in a spiral notebook -- or is it too much to read and too hard to remember?)
McCain has nowhere to go but stunts, warmed over stump lines, and lying ads -- which pollute his brand more than they hurt Obama, and the ugly hope that backlash may save his feckless campaign. The press will mostly miss the point: Obama met and surpassed the test.
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Look, I'm not saying McCain won't be a great president someday, just not now. Maybe in a few more years.
I think there are few Americans who are truly racists who would never vote for a person of another culture, race or religion no matter what. I think there are some people who never thought they would vote for Barack Obama just last week who will vote for him in November.
Nice!
Robert Shrum's mention of Kennedy-Nixon illustrates a good point. Just as 1960 was the time when Americans embraced a Catholic candidate, 2008 can and very may will be the year when Americans embrace a mixed-race candidate.
"And then there's the VP debate -- which is likely to be seen as the peril of Palin. (Can't they give her a basic briefing, maybe in a spiral notebook -- or is it too much to read and too hard to remember?)"
Does no one else here think Palin is now getting the finest briefings, using the most modern technology and advisors, not to mention performanc
Other than implanting a chip in her brain or replacing her with a robot, there's no prep that will suddenly make her an intelligent, thoughtful or capable person. what we should be worried about is how the repugs will cheat--cow Biden & the moderator into letting Palin's startling incompetence go unchallenged yet again.
You guys are all SO WRONG ABOUT PALIN. She learned about Russia by seeing it from Alaska. So, I imagine that she will be an expert on economy by debate time, because I am sure she is staring very hard at a dollar bill and a picture of the bull in front of the NY stock exchange. For foreign policy knowledge, this time she is probably staring at an entire globe. THAT SHOULD BE ENOUGH for any VP candidate.
Lol!
Rumor has it she will have a mic in her hair/behind her ear. Rove thinks of everything!
The best bet on the part of the Republicans may be to pay Tina Fey a gizzilion dollars to impersonate Palin.
The red states people aren't as stupid as everyone things they are.
(meaning, they are actually following things unfold, reconsidering,
and will not vote for McCain.)
Many will be voting for Obama ! Everyone I know , is.
You must not know any hardcore right-wingers then. Consider yourself lucky, most of my family are of that ilk, and they're... well, I don't like to talk bad about family, but they're FREAKING BUG-NUTS!! Seriously, I've tried to talk to them and what I figured out is that they KNOW McCain is a dangerous choice, they KNOW that Palin doesn't know her rear end from a hole in the ground, but they are loyal to the party. That's all that matters to them. They literally see the Democratic party as an enemy, one who should be given no quarter ever, one who should be defeated at all costs.
Oh and then there's the religious rhetoric. OMG, you'd think they were Islamic extremists ranting about Jihad... no seriously, I don't see any difference. They seem to think that voting Democrat shows a weakness of their faith and a lack of personal character.
I should probably point out that I am the only person in my family with a college education. Come to think of it, most of them either dropped out of or just barely graduated from High School. I don't know if that really has anything to do with it, I'm just sayin'... :)
Same here.....i
Sadly, everyone in my right-wing immediate family is college educated, & the most irrational right-winger of them all has a masters degree. Ditto everything you said, especially the religious rhetoric. It's what worries me the most, because a lot of people in this country vote the same way as they do. It went to new levels with Dubya's first presidential campaign. That's when they really started associating "Republican" with "Christian". Now it's like that link has always been there (it hasn't; I remember them in the 80's & 90's & they weren't like this), & it'd be like converting to Buddhism to leave the Republican party.
Thank you for writing this...I thought I was the only one with a family like this!!!! I too am the only gollege graduate. Coincidence?? I am surrounded by righ wingers that excuse everything that Republicans do and say. It is severely hurting our relationship, and it's sad. They refuse to hear anything I have to say, or have learned. They only listen to Rush Limbaugh or Sean Hannity, and preach what they hear them say at nauseum. When the Couric interview went sour, they blamed Katie for being a "liberal" and setting her up. I agree that they feel the Democratic party is the enemy, and no matteIr how bad or incapable the Republican nominee is, they will always be loyal to them. At least I know I'm not alone....t
I know some sane and otherwise intelligent people who I generally respect that are stubbornly pro-McCain. I think they never got past the war-hero thing, and one refers to himself as a post 9/11 Democrat - which supposedly means he only trusts Republicans on keeping the country safe. Everything else is just noise to them.
You're never going to convince all of the people all of the time, I just hope for the country's sake, and the world's, that enough people think beyond patriotism slogans and accepted wisdoms / myths about McCain being better on foreign policy because he spent some time in a POW cell (never mind the fact that he can't tell the difference between Iran and Iraq, thinks Pakistan borders Iraq, and Czeckoslovakia is still a country - Don't all these things fall under foreign affairs? They don't mean that he is good at foreign affairs - they mean he is a hard motherf#cker who would think nothing of bombing a far-away country. That's just what this country's seriously overdrawn and overstretched military needs...ah
To OkieIntellectual - any kind of religious fanaticism - Jihad or Jesus Camp - is dangerous because it precludes critical thought. When people stop thinking for themselves and follow blindly, everyone is in trouble. And when anyone starts waging war or claiming righteousness in God's name it is ungodly. God is God, Allah is just the Arabic word - God is love, God is peace.
Remember the headlines: Dewey Wins! Held up by President Harry Truman.
Also, remember Reagan being 15 points or so behind Jimmy Carter in August?
Bush losing all the debates to Kerry?
Bush losing all the debates to Gore?
Daddy Bush being significantly behind Dukakis?
McCain being out of the primary race.
Hillary being a slam dunk winner before the primaries.
Yeah, Bush lost the dabates with Gore and Kerry. And he was elected despite an abundance of evidence that he shouldn't have. Maybe voters have learned a few things, like if it walks and quacks like a duck, it's a duck (not a good sign for a presidency).
And McCain just keeps right on quacking..
Bush didn't lose all the debates with Kerry. The third debate was considered a win for him in that he looked a lot better than in the first two.
And so sorry, Bush didn't win either election honestly. SCOTUS stole the first one for him, Diebold the second.
"And he was elected despite an abundance of evidence that he shouldn't have."
Make that "he was put into office despite an abundance of evidence that he was not elected"
Funny you should mention Reagan v. Carter, since the exact reasons the people gave up on Carter are now going to be the reasons the people give up on the Republican
I'm thinking right about November 5th you'll be able to add 'McCain leading Obama in August' to your list of examples of why the race isn't over until the votes are counted...
You also might not want to site GWB in 2000 as an example of someone WINNING an election. Any ties this year are going to go to the party controlling the House... McCain can't rely on a tie putting him in the Oval Office.
FWIW, SOME of us NEVER though Hillary was going to win the primaries.
What's your point? Seriously, this is not that!!
The only chance McCain has is "Bradley Effect". McCain better hope this country is still racist. That is all he has.
Do you include fellow democrats in that assessment?
I have one word for that, first - "UNCOUNTED
Or to abuse the electoral college.
Racism is definitely all that McCain has left. And in this country, it'll almost certainly be enough. I hope my fellow Americans prove me wrong and shock me to the core of my being with their clear thinking and common sense, but I have no faith left anymore. Obama and McCain's numbers should NOT be as close as they are.
They only reason NOT to vote for Obama is because he's black. Period. Anyone who says otherwise is lying, whether it's to themselves or to other people or both.
The only reason NOT to vote of Obama is because he's black. Or because you disagree with his position on any particular issue.
You are an arrogant a$$. How dare you presume to know anyone's motivation for their vote.
You might as well say that the only reason for any black American NOT to vote for McCain is racism.
Grow up. Not everyone views the world as simply as you do.
I am a huge Obama supporter, but I think it's a mistake to call McCain supporters racist. There will be some racists who will not vote for a black man, and some racists who will vote for a black man just because they finally can.
I agree with Barack when he says those two small groups of voters will cancel out, and what's left is a majority of people who vote based on their own beliefs and principles. Considering those reasons I am voting for Barack Obama; however, it is narrow minded and unfair of Obama supporters to dismiss the beliefs of those who would favor McCain/Palin.
It also has the negative side effect of rallying people NOT to support your candidate of choice when you call them stupid if they do not. Noone likes being called stupid, just like Obama supporters do not like being told we 'Don't Understand'
Everyone who heads to the polls on November 4th should cast their vote based on their own personal beliefs, not for fear that they will be perceived 'racist', 'sexist', 'elitist', 'out of touch', or that they 'don't understand'.
If all votes get counted, and only get counted once, then the 'right' person for the job, is the one who wins the election. That's democracy, and is what all of us are fighting to protect by voting for what we believe in.
I answered the comments by "LoveComesInSpurts" my reply was not posted!
I am a white woman and I am voting for Barack Obama. I believe LoveComesInSpurts
message was taken the wrong way...mayb
he IS for Barack Obama, but is worried that racisim is playing a part.
We all know if Obama was a white man he would be Out Polling McCain in triple
digits...t
Just on this administrations record alone...wi
voting for "CHANGE!" I believe that Americans will put racisim aside & vote for Obama!
Now Huggington Post....Wh
You are totally right. No one is talking directly about race but that is the underlying issue--otherwise the polls wouldn't still show such a close race. You've got the war, the economy, the Sara Palin fiasco and McCain and Obama are still neck and neck in the polls? Yes, the only reason NOT to vote for Obama is racial.
It is. From sea to shining sea. Soon, Phil Gramm will be in charge of the bailout.
Ha, brings back memories here in NC of Helms vs Gant.
Playing on racism here in the south and the negativity on Affirmative Action, Helms put out an add on those very fears. Needless to say he won...
The only problem is that pesky little "technical glitch" we never bothered to sort out with Diebold.
I thought the only imaginable problem that could derail Obama would be some racy Scarlett Johanson-Obama expose. But it looks like problem solved, I think we are all on the O-train to Jan 20!
honk honk
McCain is stuck in the past. His premise for continuing the war is based on the reactions of Americans to the soldiers that fought in Vietnam. When the soldiers returned from Vietnam they were not treated with much respect. Because so many Americans were against the war. He does not understand that We (as a people) are much more sophisticated, and honor the service preformed by our military. He continues to talk about victory, he never mentions the young men and women that are injured and killed. All he is concerned about is Victory. Mr. McCain at what cost ? He is not a person concerned with Troops, or they would not have these young folks doing two or three war zone rotations. I don't ever recall our military being used like this.
not to mention the fact he never said what "victory" was. I think he's so much ego that he doesn't understand that we CANNOT AFFORD to stay there any longer!!! He wants to stay there, what do yousay to him and Cindy financing things for a while. Or give up one of their homes for the dismembered to recover???
Or even allow a train to go through Arizona with a car filled with nuclear waste. He wants all the nuclear waste to go to Yucca Mountain in NEvada, but refuses to let the train go through Arizona. I say if nuclear waste is so safe, why not use his back "40" for disposal?
I don't think the debates mean a thing. Al Gore danced on George W. and the 'talking heads' danced on Al Gore. Mainstream media spun ordinary Americans into thinking they wanted a President, they could have a beer with? Even though that person was a born again drunk. Supposedly he had given up drinking.
Mainstream media is going to spin John McCain and Palin just like they did George W. Oh, they may fake like they are not, but they will grab onto any facts which are in John McCain's favor. They are spinning Palin as a "Mom". Who could be against "Mom"? My husband used to say, "if you want anything, just add "moms".
Mainstream media are right wing enablers. They haven't changed and I don't think they will. No one holds them accountable for distorting instead of reporting. As long as they are able to distort the truth, ordinary Americans are victims of disinformation. The majority of people are too busy to research facts, they count on the nightly news to tell them what they need to hear. Sad thing is they still trust the spinners. SAD! SAD! SAD!
You see "sad sad sad" - sorry you're not enjoying the positives that have been happening pretty frequently over the past several months in spite of the Rethug efforts to hold us fast in their wicked past.
I see "hope hope hope" for an ultimate celebration. O'bama/B'iden and the entire Demo'cratic movement are even getting some shocking (if begrudging) respect from more talking heads and networks than ever before.
I and a whole lot of other people can hardly wait for the next debate - but since you don't think they mean a thing, I don't suppose you'll bother to watch...
ConnieInCleveland, do not despair. You have more than ample reason to be cynical and jaded. The MSM does not give a straight accounting of facts, and bends truths, in an effort to make the election a horse-race with drama and suspense favoring commercial ad spending. It's what pays their bills. The media in the last 3 election cycles have turned Daniel Patrick Moynihan's axiom on its head, where he stated: "Everyone is entitled to their own opinion, but everyone is not entitled to their own facts."
Be that as it is, even the MSM has to yield to the current state of our nation and the opportunity to make it whole. There will be plenty of manufactured drama for the MSM to promote regarding a President Obama, as well as the remedies and inevitable challenges we will face in the next 4 years. But even this strain of MSM contempt for facts and fact checking is innoculated against the possibility of a Palin VP or McCain hothead 4-year virus. They live here too.
ConnieInCleveland I think things are changing. Must see TV is the Rachael Maddow Show on MSNBC, after Countdown, they both give me hope that the truth is being told.
So hang in there and we have to get past the far right, because all they serve up is, " Smears, Fears and Greed".
I agree, I wouldn't watch MSNBC if it weren't for Keith Olbermann and Rachail Maddow!
Chris Matthews mind changes with the tide at the moment! On sunday afternoon
9/28, "David" switched over from the Obama/Biden rally in Michigan to Washington
regarding the"Bailout Wall Street Scenario". I was shocked that he got away with
that since nothing was going on...scene was empty...no one was speaking, the
meeting was still going on behind closed doors! I wonder if it was a McCain/Palin
rally if it would have been handled the same way...I doubt it!! Isn't it strange that
Chris Matthews and Keith Olbermann were demoted to being just commentators for
the rest of this political season!! I guess MSNBC has shown "They are Not Fair and
Balanced" anymore then Fox News!!
"Mainstream media are right wing enablers. They haven't changed and I don't think they will. No one holds them accountable for distorting instead of reporting. As long as they are able to distort the truth, ordinary Americans are victims of disinforma
I agree with everything except the right wing enabler part. Even SNL saw the obviousl tilt for Obama in the media. Any other candidate with his lack of experience and connections with criminals, idealogues, domestic terrorists and money would have been vetted long ago.
And any DEMOCRATIC MAN who gave as pathetic a performance as Sarah Palin did on CBS News would be buried. The media has been too nice to Palin. Time for gloves off -- treat her like any other VP candidate.
You are certainly entitled to your opinion. I just caution you to make sure you understand that you are voting for the collapse of our financial institutions, a return of the draft, and the very real potential of a nuclear war just to keep someone you perceive as a 'corrupt Chicago insider' out of the White House.
How far have we come as a country that we would allow forty years of unsubstantiated scandal in a midwestern city outweigh having our freedom trampled by a handful of old white men who feel they're sworn to protect us like children because we 'don't understand' the world around us the way that THEY do?
Remember that these people who are telling you they 'against big government' are the same people who would send you to fight and die based on a lottery draw and would make sure you have the lowest possible benefits when you return home. They are the same people who want to know every book you check out at the library, who want to have unfettered rights to tap your phone if you speak your mind, who want to regulate the Internet so big companies voices are heard louder and more clearly than those of the people.
Vote for whomever you want, but make sure you know WHY you're voting for them...
Everything on Time ("Real Clear Politics") today appears totally slanted toward McCain/Palin. They're pumping up Palin and ripping into Biden. What's up with that?
You are right, Mr. Shrum. There was one person on stage who appeared to be and thought like an American president. Mr. Obama was intelligent, rational, diplomatic, and understanding of past practices and appreciative of the challenges of the future.
The other person diminished himself further by his negativity, drama, repetition, and erratic behaviors. He is chained to the past and exhibits no knowledge of having learned from past bad decisions.
McCain's entire campaign has been to say Obama isn't ready. In one night Obama proved him wrong.
Barack Obama is intelligent, level-headed, professional, and inspiring.
McCain is none of these.
If the people don't see that, our country is much further gone than I think.
Palin notwithstanding.
The "change" candidate is dragging people along with him who really don't want to look at history as a prologue for the future.
Unfortunately, for democrats, democratic nominees have won the debates in the past two elections. Kerry beat Bush, and Gore beat Bush.
You remember them. President Kerry and President Gore.
And VP candidate Quayle was pilloried often before Daddy Bsh beat the democrats.
AND HOW IS YOUR 401K DOING LATELY....
But remember when you have to steal an election you get the mess you have going on in the United States right now. GW Bush was an idiot then and he is a bigger idiot now.
And McCain is his clone.
Actually, history favors the Democratic party in this election. Unless in your mind 'history' only exists from 1987 through 1989...
If you could for one moment explain WHY you like McCain as opposed to why you HATE Obama I might be more likely to give you the benefit of the doubt that you're not just here to stir the pot... If it helps, I'll go first...
I support Barack Obama because:
I believe in ending the war in Iraq
I believe in funding education
I believe that in the richest nation in the world, health care should be a right
I believe in a woman's right to choose
I believe the lower and middle classes should be treated with the respect they deserve while the upper class should take pride in supporting the nation that gave them their great riches
I believe in upholding the constitution
I believe in finding and killing the terrorists who attacked our nation on 9/11
I believe Barack Obama will spend every single day in the White House fighting for all of these things and more.
Which "change" candidate are you referring to, FirstShirt? McCain has purloined the Obama campaign's slogan, along with many other of its ideas.
And as I recall, Quayle was pilloried even more after Bush 41 won the presidency (even more than he honestly deserved to be, in my opinion).
SENATOR OBAMA WAS NOT PERFECT BUT HE DID WHAT WAS MOST IMPORTANT--HE LOOKED AND TALKED AND THOUGHT LIKE A PRESIDENT SHOULD--WE HAVE HAD EIGHT YEARS OF DOUBLE TALK AND NOW WE CAN LOOK FORWARD TO REALITY AND COMMON SENSE
"looked and talked a and thought like a president"???? Who are you referring to. Bush. Reagan. Carter. Ford, Nixon, LBJ. Martin Sheen? You guys are living in a make believe world. You don't want to compare him to JFK or Clinton do ya? They, uh, fooled around if you recall.
So did McCain.
"like a president SHOULD"
Not like a president HAS.
Besides, I've got no problem with people fooling around on the side, as long as they don't author legislation that makes what they are doing illegal (Craig). It's between them and their partners.
OBAMA/BIDEN '08
I assume you are voting on the candidates' sex lives rather than on their policies. Pick up this week's National Enquirer for your latest election news.
YEAH THEY FOOLED AROUND....
so you're saying if you could have had jackie kennedy AND marilyn monroe, you wouldn't? i highly doubt that.
After the debate I was proud of Obama mentioning the middle class. Throughout the debate he kept focusing on strengthen America. First we need to fix things here and in order to restore the relationships aboard. Brillant! Also, he told the TRUTH about his record for voting against funding for the troops. McCain never once informed the public that he also voted against funding as well, Only that Obama did because he doesn't believe in them. Intentionally distorting the fact that it was "a time table issue" and not "a supporting the troops issue." "Keep lying about my record and I'll tell the truth about yours." Yes Obama did! YES WE CAN, find out how sneaky McCain can be. Obama showed that he can be a skillful TRUTHFUL politician.
Obama/Biden 08
Florida
Obama supporters have been harping on that 'middle class' business since the debate. Obama should have spelled it for them. They are so dense. M-i-d-d-l-e c-l-a-s-s. There. What else do you need spelled out?
They had to have the word 'change' drilled into them for the last 20 months as anyone who proposed any new or different policies didn't register in their pea brains as 'change'. Ya see. I'm going to take off the shirt I'm wearing and put on a different shirt. But, then I'd have to explain to the Obama people that I'm 'changing' shirts so they understand. God. They're allowed to vote.
Ding! Ding! Ding!
We have a winner for most useless and poorly formed thought of the day!!!!!
We'd love to give you our usual gift of a Bush/Cheney button, but you'll have to make do with this McCain/Palin sticker instead.
But being serious, what the heck are you trying to say? Or were you going for dribble?
No matter how impressive and intelligent Obama appeared, I still plan to vote for him. Unfortunately in this red state I live in, people are going to turn a blind eye to all the signs that McCain and Palin are not and should not be elected, and vote for 'em anyway. Some of the people I work with think that McCain based on his prior POW status, cannot do anything wrong. We elected Bush twice and I know that our state is going to be red. I read on a website that "it is not even in play".
I still plan to vote for Obama and will cheer with the rest of the country when he wins. I'm just sorry that my state will not be one of the ones that are "blue"
You never know how many are out there like you....may
You know, we could both be living in the same state! I agree with Miss Edith, though, because I've talked to some former Bush supporters in my neighborhood, and they're addressing it sort of generally, and they seem to be leaning away from any further Republican involvement. They're embarrassed.
Brick
There are many people in those red states who will be voting Obama. They may not make a public acknowledgement of who they are voting for because of the way they feel the community will treat them. But, when they go in their voting booth and cast their ballot, that is when they will vote OBAMA. Sometime there is nothing wrong with keeping your move close to your breast...n
Living in a "Red state" should give you a good reason to do some work : contact your nearest "Obama camp office"...
If you are an Obama supporter, be a proud of it!
I doubt it would help, but maybe you could point out to people in your state that McCain crashed 5 expensive Navy aircraft (at the taxpayers' expense) because he apparently just wasn't a very good pilot. The fifth time he lost a plane, he got thrown in a Vietnamese POW camp.
Actually, I admire McCain for his service and his ordeal as a POW. But come on, isn't it really much more heroic to evade enemy fire and return yourself and your plane safely to your base? Everyone who fought in that horrific, immoral war was a hero, and McCain is just one of countless thousands.
McCain did himself no favors Friday night. Pundits may parse to their hearts' content, pretending this was a boxing match with a scorecard; but it wasn't. Presidential debates never are. Just look at the way Al Gore "won" all three debates with Bush, but damaged his candidacy by coming across as an impatient know-it-all jerk. McCain came across that way the other night, and it will prove the undoing of his candidacy.
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