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Robert Reich

Robert Reich

Posted: October 25, 2010 04:09 PM

If Republicans succeed in taking over the House and come even close to gaining a majority in the Senate, expect calls for the president to "move to the center." These will come not only from Republicans but also from conservative Democrats, other prominent Democrats who have been defeated, Fox Republican News, mainstream pundits, and White House political advisers.

After the 1994 midterm, when Democrats lost the House and Senate, Bill Clinton was told to "move to the center." He obliged by hiring the pollster Dick Morris, declaring the "era of big government is over," abandoning much of his original agenda, and making the 1996 general election about nothing more than V-chips in televisions and school uniforms.

It happened in the 1978 midterm when Democrats lost ground and Jimmy Carter was instructed to "move to the center." He obliged by firing his entire cabinet, apologizing for the errors of his ways, and making the 1980 general election about absolutely nothing.

Oddly, though, after Republicans suffer losses in the first midterms they pay no attention to voices telling them to move to the center. If anything, Ronald Reagan and the two Bushes moved further right.

Could it be that Republican presidents understand a few things Democrats don't? For example:

  1. There is no "center" to American politics. The "center" is merely what most people tell pollsters they think or want at any given time. Trying to move to the center by following polls means giving up on leadership because you can't lead people to where they already are.
  2. By the first midterm the public is almost always grouchy because the president wasn't a messiah and didn't change the world. No single president has that kind of power. The higher the expectations for change at the start of an administration, the greater the disillusionment.
  3. Presidents' parties always lose the first midterm elections because the President isn't on the ticket, and the opposing party has had time to regroup and refuel. It's always easier for the party on the outs to attack -- and to mass troops for the assault -- than for the party inside to defend.
  4. The economy trumps everything else, even though presidents aren't really responsible for it. So when it's bad -- as it was during the first midterms of Carter, Reagan, and Clinton -- voters penalize the president's party even more than usual. When it's very bad, the electoral penalty is likely to be that much larger.


Why are Democratic presidents so much more easily intimidated by the "move to the center" rhetoric after midterm losses than Republican presidents?

Because Democrats think in terms of programs, policies, and particular pieces of legislation. It's easy to reverse course by compromising more and giving up on legislative goals. Bill Clinton never mentioned the words "health care reform" after the 1994 midterms.

Republicans think in terms of simple ideas, themes, and movements. It's far harder to reverse course on these (look what happened to the first George Bush when he raised taxes), and easier to keep them alive: Republican presidents just continue looking for opportunities to implement them.

Republicans are also more disciplined (ask yourself which party attracts authoritarian personalities and which attracts anti-authoritarians). This makes it easier for them to stay the course. Their base continues to organize and fulminate even after midterm defeats. Democrats, on the other hand, are less organized. Electoral defeats tend to fracture and dissipate whatever organization they have.

Republicans are cynical about politics from the jump. Political cynicism fuels them. Democrats are idealistic about politics. When they become cynical they tend to drop out.

Message to Obama: Whatever happens November 2, don't move to the center. Push even harder for what you believe in. Message to Democrats: Whatever happens, keep the courage of your conviction and get even more active.

Robert Reich is the author of Aftershock: The Next Economy and America's Future, now in bookstores. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org.

 
 
 
 
 
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11:06 PM on 10/31/2010
"Message to Obama: Whatever happens November 2, don't move to the center. Push even harder for what you believe in. Message to Democrats: Whatever happens, keep the courage of your conviction and get even more active."

so what's going to happen on 11/2; btw o is already at the right of center - further move is to abyss
10:58 PM on 10/31/2010
just a guess, demos have no backbones
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Winston Smith
GOP solution: GIVE THE 1% MORE !!!
05:22 PM on 10/31/2010
This is ....Reich's best column recently out of many very good ones.

Funny that it is not about economics but about social science.
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realitytrumpsbull
Two 'alves of coconut!
12:47 PM on 10/31/2010
I hope our next President is named MacDougal, and he starts throwing the moneychangers out of Congress, and provides some effective leadership in the general direction of getting things back on track where the federal budget is concerned. Really. It's time to cut the B.S., and get this country's fiscal house in order. Or, does Reich think that having the US go a trillion further into the red as a normal matter of course is a desirable circumstance? I say chop, hack, and slash that budget business, and democrat, republican, or whatever, need to sit down, and start talking about the mess that's been created this last decade. Obama glued the wheels back on, sort of, but there's miles to go in improving how this country (mis)handles its' money, and ends up effectively putting the taxpaying public further and further into debt every year to help finance current dysfunction, and all the pie-in-the-sky B.S. that people keep trying to troll in front of Congress. Clean house, ladies n germs! Give this aspect of government that 'Comet clean' smell! Because right now it stinks like a barnyard. And frankly, so does California. 46 of 50 states are in trouble financially. How did it get that way? How did it get that way? Moreover, how do you fix it? What if it mean shutting down things like taxpayer-funded schools? No votes in support there, eh?
11:59 AM on 10/31/2010
Please Mr. Obama do as robert says, Go left even harder, ignore the polls, the people ,and do it just like that and watch what happens. The president ignored the polls in the heathcare bill, and the people are abandoning him and his agenda for his trouble.
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11:26 AM on 10/31/2010
Right on, Robert.
11:17 AM on 10/31/2010
This tendency of Democrats to move to the center when pressure is applied is why this country lags so far behind other Western countries in social and economic reform.

The biggest problem is that liberals and Democrats in turn more than earn the title "Goody Two Shoes". While those on the Right....do not.

The Republican party has known how to play the game called American Politics to it's extreme for many decades now, and they don't really care about little things like...morals, integrity, fairness...
They play to win, no matter what the costs may be, and no matter how dire the consequences to anyone they hurt on their way to the top.

Democrats and liberals on the other hand, always try to play fair and play nice.

Liberals may have an easier time getting into heaven then most Rethugs, but will they hold the reigns of this country for very long at any given time while they continue to play nice? Not likely.....
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ZiloRS
03:39 PM on 10/31/2010
You are so right. Democrats need to toughen up and stick to their ideals. The ONLY thing Americans want to hear right now is the voice of someone who knows the direction they want to go. The cons know exactly what their message is at all times--destruction for the country and people follow them because they seem so sure of themselves (the arrogant and irresponsible types usually do).

I want the kind of democrats that don't have to apologize for being right, dang it.
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10:56 AM on 10/31/2010
And, of course the obvious, that this country is "center/center right" (Yes, Robert, the center does exist. Your dismissal that it does is your first huge mistake).

The continued insistence of the Left otherwise despite survey after poll after survey after poll showing otherwise is why they will always not "get it" and fail.
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VirginiaJeff
Waiting for the "Jennifer Government" movie
06:12 PM on 10/31/2010
Actually, poll after poll shows the country is center-left. Take away the labels and simply ask people what programs they like or whether or not openly-gays people should be allowed in the military, and you find out they're are liberal -- even if they don't use that label for themselves.
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10:10 AM on 11/01/2010
Thank you, Jeff, for making my point.
PaulArt
Under 50 and Screwed by the TParty65+
09:34 AM on 10/31/2010
Democrats keep sliding to the center and selling out their base because they have no accountability system that will whip them into shape. Our only 'movement organization' if you can call it that have been the Unions and we know how that has worked. The GOP has a foot soldier brigade that is disciplined, organized, multifarious and uniformly brainwashed to the point of fanaticism. The Church. Evangelicals and Catholics may not vote in lock step but the machinery of the Church serves beautifully to get every GOP talking point out. Answers are circulated in anticipation even before questions are asked. If you have some evangelical relatives and friends you would have realized this by now. "Fannie and Freddie caused the financial crash", "Obamacare is going to use Death Panels", "Government is too intrusive". I heard these canards in uniformity from two families separated by almost 40 states geographically and they dont even belong to the same evangelical community. I marveled then at the success of their fantastic mis-information network. People who receive, internalize and act on this information are uniformly ignoramuses who never read and inform themselves on any issue. Their news comes from the Church and Fox. Umbrella organizations at the top like James Dobson's Focus on the Family, Pat Robertsons 700 Club, assorted Tele-evangelists all carry the message of the week, poll tested and tried. What do we have? HP?
08:56 AM on 10/31/2010
I always thought Clinton was the first Republicrat. He certainly didn't stand behind any of the legislative intiatives that got me to vote for him the first time.

As Americans we ought to be ashamed that we let politics interfer with doing what's right for the citizens of this nation. As Boehner and others work for their corporate masters at the expensive of the working class, the working class seems to think he's on their side.

For decades, one side then the other has used fear and racism to cloud the fact that since the mid1960s very little has been done to support and secure the path toward fulfilling the "American Dream." Though a myth, it was a motivator because people could see the sometimes hard work, education, and the willingness to go above and beyond was rewarded.

That possiblity began in die under Reagan as those who had convinced those who didn't that it was their fault, all the while tipping the playing field until it was too steep to climb.

Until Americans of all parties throw off the blinders and really LISTEN not just hear what the politicians are saying (then doing) the U.S.A. will continues it's steep decline into a 3rd world nation.
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04:39 AM on 10/31/2010
"Message to Obama: Whatever happens November 2, don't move to the center. Push even harder for what you believe in."

And what exactly does Obama believe in? I have no clue.
05:50 PM on 10/27/2010
Obama's problem has been to make a 180 degree change from everything Bush did. Bush barely won both elections and he declared himself to have a mandate. Bush then subsequently did his best to exclude Democrats from American government. For example, making it look like anyone voting against the Patriot Act and more war is a traitor.

So, Obama has gone out of his way to NOT exclude the minority party. That was a big mistake because they decided they could just stamp their feet and throw a tantrum anytime they didn't like some part of some bill ("No no no") because they new "daddy" wasn't going to come down hard on them.

If Obama figures out a way to get enough people back to work in the next two years, I think that will make it a lot easier for him to get re-elected.
kellygreen
"Ideology is the Science of Idiots" John Adams
01:54 PM on 10/27/2010
The man has spent the last two years trying to govern from the Center.

Which is why BOTH extremes are so honked off at him.

...and there IS a political Center in this country. They are the fiscally-conservative-but-socially-progressive voters that swell the ranks of Independant voters. The very voters that Democrats need in order to maintain any sort of governing majority.

The idea that voters are split into ranks of Progressives and Conservatives---and nothing else---is a myth. The same sort of myth that caused Conservatives to over-reach and self-destruct under Karl Rove's drive to create a "Permanent Majority".

The President can BOTH stand up for what he believes in, AND forge a constructive relationship with Centrist voters. By simply RESPECTING the validity of THEIR point of view---even if he doesn't agree with it---and giving them a seat at the policy negotiating table.

But this notion that the "only" way forwards is to pursue a narrow, Liberal agenda is nothing but a recipie to ignite Independant voters stereotypical fears of "Big Goverment" and "Tax-and-Spend Liberalism"....and chase them right back into the arms of the Republicans.

Who will welcome their votes.
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snoopbuzz
Left RNC because of TP
04:33 AM on 10/31/2010
I like your statement. Couldn't have stated it better. Fanned.
One other point I would include is that the progessive conservatives are more interested in the fical soundness of the candidate while a progressive liberal is more interested in social issues.
kellygreen
"Ideology is the Science of Idiots" John Adams
03:10 PM on 11/01/2010
Good point.

In my experience Centrist voters don't believe that goverment should be dictating morality, or deliberately holding certain groups down (like gays and minorities) like some elements on the Far Right clearly believe it should. But they don't think it is government's responsibility to solve everyone's problems for them....like some Progressives seem to feel.

They want a goverment that runs an orderly, healthy society...and does so in a financially responsible manner.

It is not a viewpoint that I agree with totally...but one that I can the see the value of in many respects. One I see as a necessary counter-balance to some of the excesses of Progressivism. (Like the notion that if you aren't actively at WAR with the business community, than you are slave to the "corporate agenda"...that there is no middle-ground between trying to beat corporations into submission...and letting them run amok.)
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04:41 AM on 10/31/2010
Obama's already lost me with his "mission accomplished" moment in Iraq, his failure to close Gitmo and the escalation in Afpak. He'd have to perform some sort of miracle to get my vote.
kellygreen
"Ideology is the Science of Idiots" John Adams
03:06 PM on 11/01/2010
Then you are more interested in being "right", than you are in actually accomplishing anything tangible.

1. On the campaign trail, he promised to end the War in Iraq responsibly. Which means bringing our troops home at a pace where the Iraqi goverment can step in and fill the security vaccuum. He is doing that.

2. He said on the entire campaign, that he planned on escalating our involvement in Afpak to degrade Al-Qaeda and keep the Taliban from toppling the Pakistani government and acquirng that nation's nuclear aresenal. Apparently you either missed or ignored those repeated promises...that he has carried through on.

3. He has tried to close Gitmo...which he said he would do only when he could do so responsibly, and not put the nation's security at-risk. He has been thwarted by his own Congress (who refused to fund it) and state-and-local officials who are skittish about trying these people in civilian courts. Apparently, you seem to think the President should simply ignore the constitutional limits of his authority, when it gets in the way of what you want.
09:41 PM on 10/26/2010
A frightening observation given how regressive the Republican agenda is.
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07:37 PM on 10/26/2010
Professor -- if the GOP takes over the House, then Obama should take that as a signal to get bolder and make a real attempt to push through progressive (small p) ideas in the legislature. He will thereby build the support that he needs for 2012. Otherwise, it may end up being "We'd Like to Thank You, Herbert Hoover."