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Robert Reich

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Slouching Toward a Double-Dip, for No Good Reason

Posted: 08/08/11 12:09 PM ET

Imagine your house is burning. You call the fire department but your call isn't answered because every fire fighter in town is debating whether there will be enough water to fight fires over the next ten years, even though water is plentiful right now. (Yes, there's a long-term problem.) One faction won't even allow the fire trucks out of the garage unless everyone agrees to cut water use. An agency that rates fire departments has just issued a downgrade, causing everyone to hoard water.

While all this squabbling continues, your house burns to the ground and the fire has now spread to your neighbors' homes. But because everyone is preoccupied with the wrong question (the long-term water supply) and the wrong solution (saving water now), there's no response. In the end, the town comes up with a plan for the water supply over the next decade, but it's irrelevant because the whole town has been turned to ashes.

Okay, I exaggerate a bit, but you get the point. The American economy is on the verge of another recession. Most Americans haven't even emerged from the last one. Consumers (70 percent of the economy) won't or can't spend because their major asset is worth a third less than it was five years ago, they can't borrow as before, and they're justifiably worried about their jobs and wages. And without customers, businesses won't expand and hire. So we're trapped in a vicious cycle that's getting worse.

But the government won't come to the rescue by spending more and cutting most peoples' taxes because it's obsessed by a so-called "debt crisis" based on budget projections over the next ten years. That obsession -- which serves the ideological purposes of right-wing Republicans who really want to shrink government -- has even spread to the eat-your-spinach media, deficit hawks in the Democratic Party, and a major (and thoroughly irresponsible) credit-rating agency that's neither standard nor poor.

Meanwhile, some lazy (or misinformed) commentators are linking our faux debt crisis to Europe's real one. But the two are entirely different. Several European nations don't have enough money to repay what they owe their lenders, or even pay the interest. That's threatening the entire euro-zone.

But there's no question that the United States has enough money to pay what it owes. We're the richest nation in the world and we print the money the world relies on. The only question on this side of the pond is whether tea-party Republicans will allow America to pay its bills when the debt-ceiling fight resumes at the end of 2012.

Europe is scared of what's happening in the United States - but it's not America's faux "debt crisis" that's spooked them. It's the slowdown here (and the likelihood of another recession), made all the worse as our debt obsession prevents the U.S. government from doing what it should. A slowdown and recession here mean fewer exports from Europe to America. When combined with their genuine debt crisis, this could push Europe's economy over the edge.

The most important aspect of policy making is getting the problem right. We are slouching toward a double dip because we're getting the problem wrong. Despite what Standard & Poor's says, notwithstanding what's occurring in Europe, and regardless of U.S. budget projections years from now -- our current crisis is jobs, wages, and growth. We do not now have a debt crisis.

Every time you hear an American politician analogize the nation's budget to a family budget (as, sadly, even President Obama has done), you should know the politician is not telling the truth. The truth is just the opposite. Our national budget can and should counteract the shrinkage of family budgets by running larger deficits when families cannot.

Americans are more frightened, economically insecure, and angrier than at any time since the Great Depression. If our lawmakers continue to obsess about the wrong thing and fail to do what must be done -- and they don't explain it to the nation -- Americans will only become more fearful, insecure, and angry.

We are slouching toward a double dip, with all the human costs that implies. We don't have to be. That is the tragedy of our time.

Robert Reich is the author of Aftershock: The Next Economy and America's Future, now in bookstores. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org.

 
 
 

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Imagine your house is burning. You call the fire department but your call isn't answered because every fire fighter in town is debating whether there will be enough water to fight fires over the next ...
Imagine your house is burning. You call the fire department but your call isn't answered because every fire fighter in town is debating whether there will be enough water to fight fires over the next ...
 
 
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12:33 PM on 08/14/2011
as we slouch towards Hoovervilles, whoops, I meant Obamavilles, yes, "Americans will only become more fearful, insecure, and angry"

the tent cities, and the hunger, will not be pretty

as Gil Scott Evans put it back in the 70's, "The Revolution Will Not Be Televised"
( http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/05/27/gil-scott-heron-dies_n_868363.html )

it'll take till the 75% see, real clearly, in spite of the corporate media's propaganda, what the utter madness (and rank stupidity) of the 25% have brought, MAYBE we'll then see some actual change ...

away from debt crisis stupidity, away from political fear of standing up to foolishness and worse, and away from being 100% bought and owned by Wall Street and Big Money

maybe

it seems, by then, it'll be awfully late ...

the half-full part is it is NEVER too late to change direction, and start working on actually solving real (aka "right" ;-) problems!
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wmnorton
Moderate where moderate used to be
11:02 AM on 08/11/2011
The question we should be asking is how do we stimulate the economy when the Republicans will not allow you to raise revenue or have a stimulus package. The following would work and should not be opposed because of the Grover Pledge. He has already stated that this would be acceptable, because where you are raising the taxes in one place you are lowering it in another. Raise the taxes on the wealthy back to where they were under Clinton, not as high as they ought ot be but a good first step. Now use all of that revenue to increase the Standard Deduction, should be able to double the Standard Deduction. 99% the people that would be getting that money will spend it, that will stimulate the economy.
08:43 AM on 08/11/2011
Oh, this is quite a familiar scenario. It's ALREADY happened, right here in America, in recent years.

Substitute flood water for fire, add "total civil society breakdown", and you've got New Orleans in Katrina.
03:43 PM on 08/09/2011
The last three years of federal spending prove that Keynesian economics do not work. Obama is driving us to third world status as he purposely chokes business with regulations and tries to steal the wealth of others.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ILoveGreatDanes
If you can read this,my cloaking device is broken.
09:28 PM on 08/09/2011
Obama "tries to steal the wealth of others?" Yeah, right. Cutting spending with no tax hikes is stealing the wealth of others. I understand why you have no fans.
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12:25 PM on 08/14/2011
you have to wonder what planet some folks are on ...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
02:41 PM on 08/09/2011
The 12 private banks and the secret foreign banks that make up the Fed do not make any bones about it..during good times we make the interest rate very low. When the people buy more than they can afford WE raise the rates very high and the public loses all of their assets to the elites for pennies on the dollar...
...........The motto of the Federal Reserve: to saddle the public with debt from cradle to grave.
and last a love note from the Banksters:
http://www.illuminati-news.com/bankers-manifesto.html
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roberttsf
Give War A Chance
01:12 PM on 08/09/2011
"our current crisis is jobs, wages, and growth. We do not now have a debt crisis."

Actually the S&P downgrade was made simply because our law makers were unable to come to an equitable agreement. More partisan rhetoric and blame will exacerbate the divide and eventually force a further downgrade. In my experience no one party has the answer. A plan purely from one side of the aisle or the other will not forge a lasting solution. Contrary to what the author says here we do have a debt problem. We have recalcitrant law makers that completely unwilling or unable to deal with the root causes of our defecit spending. On the left our lawmakers are unwilling to embrace entitlement reform in the big programs which are causing most of our debt, on the Right the TP and GOP are unwilling to increase taxes and revenue when it is needed in the long term. The author is right on one point alone. This battle didn't have to happen right now, and in hindsight shouldn't have because the economic recovery was fragile and I fear now it may be broken beyond repair.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
02:53 PM on 08/09/2011
excellent post...in addition both parties want to cut medicare and Social Security. Neither party wants to stop these perpetual wars...are our legislators bought and paid for by the MIC? and last their are enough funds for SSI for another 25 years, it is self sustaining and really the only program that works. I may post more later as I have quite a lot of data on this subject and it must be dealt with in an equitable manner...MR
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:U.S._Federal_Spending_-_FY_2007.png
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
dkrypt
Unencumbered by political correctness
01:06 PM on 08/09/2011
"we print the money"

Yes, we certainly do, a lot of it.
dgoose50
Proud Socialist
12:52 PM on 08/09/2011
Riddle me this....corporations are same as Individuals,but individuals are NOT the same as corporations.THANKS SCOTUS.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
02:57 PM on 08/09/2011
it is time to impeach the 5 Repub supreme Court judges that saddled US with that change of law.

Today all of our lawmakers are millionaires and have been bought and paid for by the Corporations. The Public goes wanting again. "The Best Government the corporations can Buy"
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11:49 AM on 08/09/2011
Corporate profits remain strong, if not at record levels. Exports to developing countries, such as China and their emerging middle class, more than make up for the loss of consumption here at home.

Corporate America no longer needs us. We've given them so many tax breaks and subsidies that they can remain profitable without the American consumer.

We need to take our power back, as well as our government, by reinstating a "sane" corporate tax rate, closing loopholes and eliminating subsidies. Only then will corporations begin to participate in our economy again and carry their fair share of the burden.

Afterall, they are responsible for our current situation. It's about time we make them take responsibility.
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JayDDrew
Facts are neither conservative or liberal.
12:45 PM on 08/09/2011
You can do a corporate tax rate, but that just pushes corporations to move overseas. Don't do that, unless you also plan on an import tax, which will be passed on to the American consumer. THe better idea is to LOWER the corporate tax rate AND have a modest import tax to coerce the corporations to move back onto American soil. Then, to increase tax revenues, increase income taxes, particularly on the wealthy.
Bottom line - it's the current tax code that is allowing the wealthy to move the corporations overseas, but keep the personal income at lower tax rates, that is running up the deficit.
Excellent article, particular the fire analogy, by Mr. Reich, by the way.
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12:33 PM on 08/10/2011
How low can they go? GE didn't pay ANY federal taxes in 2010. Capital gains rates are at an all time low, so anyone whose income based on earnings from investments pay next to nothing.

There is absolutely NO historical basis for this claim.
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wmnorton
Moderate where moderate used to be
09:43 AM on 08/11/2011
First steps in tax reform should be income from dividnds should be taxed as ordinary income, to encourage stock ownership you could have a nominal amount ($1000) tax free. Capital gains should be indexed. That means that capital gains are adjusted for inflation, so that the longer you keep the asset the more adjustment there is. The adjustment should be the same as the Social Security COLA.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
02:58 PM on 08/09/2011
ckimble FF...power to the people
11:01 AM on 08/09/2011
Labor is a liability to business meaning they are not going to hire unless demand forces them too. During the recession they realized just how thin they can stretch there workforce by increasing workload without increasing pay. The workers cannot complain or leave because their are no other jobs out there so by fear they are forced into this situation.

Big business will not hire in American because the cheapest labor is overseas, small business cannot afford to pay a decent wage or offer decent benefits because they are forced to compete with big business using 3rd world labor.

Right now we have 2 options:

Republican: Rid the US of labor laws and regulations, effectively turning the United States working class into a 3rd world population.

Democrats: Same as republicans just complain about it and pass laws to ad regulation just never fund them. However they will leave intact social programs that allow the working families to eat, and receive health care.

Independents: Increase tariffs on imports from countries with 3rd world labor laws making it more costly than hiring workers in the US. Forcing global corporations to hire in the US to most effectively reach the worlds largest market.
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JayDDrew
Facts are neither conservative or liberal.
12:46 PM on 08/09/2011
You're right, but we still need to cut corporate taxes (balanced by increasing taxes on the wealthy) so they will move the corporations (and jobs) back onto American soil. A simple import tariff will be passed on to American consumers.
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muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
03:00 PM on 08/09/2011
a VAT tax is actually a tax on the purchaser
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wmnorton
Moderate where moderate used to be
10:14 AM on 08/11/2011
We need to cut sorporate taxes based upon ending the loopholes for corporations. By ending the loopholes we could cut the corporate rate to about 20%. We need to keep corporate taxes and individual taxes separte rather than mixing them all up. We should raise the taxes on the wealthy but then use that money to incease the Stadard deuction to the equivalent of full time work at minimum wage. The guy working for minimum wage pays enough with the payroll taxes. I would also end the Earned Income Credit at the same time.
11:01 AM on 08/09/2011
It can't be said enough, we have a jobs crisis. The debt stuff is just silly nonsense at the moment. If there was a debt crisis people would not buy treasuries and interest rates would be 6% or more. Why is this so difficult for people to believe? Just because some groups have a desire for unemployment to be 10% in November 2012 does't mean that the population as a whole should follow like sheep. We need to spend more, either as a government infrastructure repair works program or private corporations with all their retained billions of cash from reckless taxation cutting. When things are going again, then worry about silly budget numbers.
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12:11 PM on 08/09/2011
If the president really wanted to stimulate job growth, all he needs to do is insitute a nation wide 30 hour woork week. Unemployment would plummet and we would be on our way to recovery in no time.
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JayDDrew
Facts are neither conservative or liberal.
12:49 PM on 08/09/2011
That would not work. As a small businessman, more employees means more benefits to pay out. You're also talking about staggering work shifts to meet the needed hours.
A thirty hour work week sounds good in theory, but most small businesses don't work on that schedule. Plus, you're talking about a 25% pay cut for those employees, as we could not afford to pay them 1/3 more, ie, to keep their current salaries the same.
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02:01 PM on 08/09/2011
Corporations are making record profits. I hear all the time that they could hire, but are instead hoarding money. Productivity is rising, meaning they are squeezing more work out of people for less pay. Sure, maybe wages wouldn't rise, but they could at least remain stable. Either way, the purpose of economic activity is to provide jobs.
10:13 AM on 08/09/2011
heading into a recession requires some one to stimulate the economy -----ie spend money to create more economic activity ----

kind of like when you play a championship game you have to -----dig deeper ----play a little harder ---give it 110% ---------the last thing you do is ease off ----or play handcuffed

republican economic strategy ----make cuts ----bench the star player ----
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JayDDrew
Facts are neither conservative or liberal.
12:50 PM on 08/09/2011
Yup, but their strategy is working - sabotage the country under the Obama administration to weaken his chances of being reelected in 2012. Meanwhile, we all suffer for their power grab.
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chodian
10:07 AM on 08/09/2011
You are correct on one thing Mr. Reich, conservatives want to cut the size of government. We wouldn't be in this situation if we had strong conservative leadership in the White House.
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11:53 AM on 08/09/2011
Yeah, that's right. It doesn't have anything to do with tax loopholes, deregulation and increasing subsidies for corporate America.

If we only had a conservative in the White House *sigh*
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Footwarrior
Progressive Apparatchik
12:25 PM on 08/09/2011
You are correct, the US would not be in a slow recovery after a recession. We would still be in an economic depression.
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Indigo1941
Time traveler.
10:05 AM on 08/09/2011
No, Robert. It's beneath you to enable the Myth of a Recovery that wasn't. The finery on the upscale Forbes list got an upward wobble, that's true, but that's not a recovery on Main Street which is where people live. You're drifting away into the Republican Cloud. Come back!
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opines
09:34 AM on 08/09/2011
Prior to WW II, the U.S. endured 13 depressions. Our economy was understood to be a 'boom and bust' economy. Overextensions of credit during the boom years led to collapses that washed out the debt and eliminated non-competitive, inefficient businesses. Through hard work, inventiveness and free land (stolen from the Native Americans) we were able to dig our way out of the pit.

In the context of the Cold War we believed that a 1930s type depression might 'defeat' us. So, instead of washing out the debt, eliminating inefficient entities, we inflated and borrowed.

The George W. Bush years of unfunded wars and tax cuts has placed our economy beyond the point where monetary tinkering can ward off a full blown collapse.

And now, we are in the early stages of a system ending DEPRESSION that began four years ago. Runaway inflation, now in its early stage will provide the coup de grace.
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journeyman steve
10:43 AM on 08/09/2011
IMHO, we can still stave off full-blown collapse through corrective action to the failed policies, tax and investment laws, but are unlikely to. The system failing was really allowing short-sellers to rampage and profit through our stock market. The Uptick Rule MUST be re-instated if we want the future of America to be more prosperous than the past.

However, my skeptical outlook is largely driven by the drivel coming out of the wealthiest contributors to public policy lobbying. The rich have grown obsessive compulsive about their hoard and their future chances of hoarding more. It's gotten so bad that average people think they're in the "hoarding" wealthy class and make statements of the absurd, all the while ignoring their childrens' futures. The truly wealthy are not foresaking their children, it's assumed that they'll have that few hundred thousand dollars laying around for their future education and start in life. But the average and poor who are carrying water for the rich have not even life insurance to cover catestrophic loss of life. Too many people who want to be rich quick, arm chair experts, but have demonstrated a predilection towards bad study habits. I can't fix lazy and sinful pride, that's where I look for God to help. Not of the economic or political "crises", but the crises of honor, character and love.