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Manufacturing Illusions

Posted: 02/17/2012 9:15 pm

Suddenly, manufacturing is back -- at least on the election trail. But don't be fooled. The real issue isn't how to get manufacturing back. It's how to get good jobs and good wages back. They aren't at all the same thing.

Republicans have become born-again champions of American manufacturing. This may have something to do with crucial primaries occurring next week in Michigan and the following week in Ohio, both of them former arsenals of American manufacturing.

Mitt Romney says he'll "work to bring manufacturing back" to America by being tough on China, which he describes as "stealing jobs" by keeping value of its currency artificially low and thereby making its exports cheaper.

Rick Santorum promises to "fight for American manufacturing" by eliminating corporate income taxes on manufacturers and allowing corporations to bring their foreign profits back to American tax free as long as they use the money to build new factories.

President Obama has also been pushing a manufacturing agenda. Last month the president unveiled a six-point plan to eliminate tax incentives for companies to move offshore and create new lures for them to bring jobs home. "Our goal," he says, is to "create opportunities for hard-working Americans to start making stuff again."

Meanwhile, American consumers' pent-up demand for appliances, cars, and trucks have created a small boomlet in American manufacturing -- setting off a wave of hope, mixed with nostalgic patriotism, that American manufacturing could be coming back. Clint Eastwood's Super Bowl "Halftime in America" hit the mood exactly.

But American manufacturing won't be coming back. Although 404,000 manufacturing jobs have been added since January 2010, that still leaves us with 5.5 million fewer factory jobs today than in July 2000 -- and 12 million fewer than in 1990. The long-term trend is fewer and fewer factory jobs.

Even if we didn't have to compete with lower-wage workers overseas, we'd still have fewer factory jobs because the old assembly line has been replaced by numerically-controlled machine tools and robotics. Manufacturing is going high-tech.

Bringing back American manufacturing isn't the real challenge, anyway. It's creating good jobs for the majority of Americans who lack four-year college degrees.

Manufacturing used to supply lots of these kind of jobs, but that was only because factory workers were represented by unions powerful enough to get high wages.

That's no longer the case. Even the once-mighty United Auto Workers has been forced to accept pay packages for new hires at the Big Three that provide half what new hires got a decade ago. At $14 an hour, new auto workers earn about the same as most of America's service-sector workers.

GM just announced record profits but its new workers won't be getting much of a share.

In the 1950s, more than a third of American workers were represented by a union. Now, fewer than 7 percent of private-sector workers have a union behind them. If there's a single reason why the median wage has dropped dramatically for non-college workers over the past three and a half decades, it's the decline of unions.

How do the candidates stand on unions? Mitt Romney has done nothing but bash them. He vows to pass so-called "right to work" legislation barring job requirements of union membership and payment of union dues. "I've taken on union bosses before," he says, "and I'm happy to take them on again." When Romney's not blaming China for American manufacturers' competitive problems he blames high union wages. Romney accuses the president of "stacking" the National Labor Relations Board with "union stooges."

Rick Santorum says he's supportive of private-sector unions. While in the Senate he voted against a national right to work law (Romney is now attacking him on this) but Santorum isn't interested in strengthening unions, and he doesn't like them in the public sector.

President Obama praises "unionized plants" -- such as Master Lock, the Milwaukee maker of padlocks he visited last week, which brought back one hundred jobs from China. But the president has not promised that if reelected he'd push for the Employee Free Choice Act, which would make it easier for workers to organize a union. He had supported it in the 2008 election but never moved the legislation once elected.

The president has also been noticeably silent on the labor struggles that have been roiling the Midwest -- from Wisconsin's assault on the bargaining rights of public employees, through Indiana's recently-enacted right to work law -- the first in the rust belt.

The fact is, American corporations -- both manufacturing and services -- are doing wonderfully well. Their third quarter profits totaled $2 trillion. That's 19 percent higher than the pre-recession peak five years ago.

But American workers aren't sharing in this bounty. Although jobs are slowly returning, wages continue to drop, adjusted for inflation.

The fundamental problem isn't the decline of American manufacturing, and reviving manufacturing won't solve it. The problem is the declining power of American workers to share in the gains of the American economy.

Robert Reich is the author of "http://www.amazon.com/Aftershock-Next-Economy-Americas-Future/dp/0307592812" target="_hplink">Aftershock: The Next Economy and America's Future, now in bookstores. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org.

 
 
 

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Suddenly, manufacturing is back -- at least on the election trail. But don't be fooled. The real issue isn't how to get manufacturing back. It's how to get good jobs and good wages back. They aren't a...
Suddenly, manufacturing is back -- at least on the election trail. But don't be fooled. The real issue isn't how to get manufacturing back. It's how to get good jobs and good wages back. They aren't a...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
FAIRTV
12:10 PM on 02/22/2012
Robert Reich's misguided policies have been a total failure. Don't forget he was Labor Secretary during much of that time America lost 12 million manufacturing jobs. His suggestions to strengthen unions and to increase federal spending have been completely discredited by history.
06:52 AM on 02/22/2012
"The problem is the declining power of American workers to share in the gains of the American economy." I agree Bob. wtf is the solution? The idiot Europeans are pushing austerity on the Greeks. Wow that will teach them. Where the hell did they get that new economics. Like: The man is starving because he is broke let's not give him food, that will make him sicker? How do we get people with a spine that say 'NO' to Bay bridge projects that make us poorer? Where did generations of sweat equity and legacy savings go>?
12:56 PM on 02/20/2012
As someone who has a college degree, bs economics and a skilled trades apprenticeship, I'm a pipefitter, the world has changed. I used to work in the commercial/industrial building trades making close to $40.00 per hour on the check plus full benefits, now I work in a union shipyard as a pipefitter making $23.00 with full benefits, doing ship repair and I'm thankful and lucky to get to many of my coworkers have been unemployed or marginally employed for the past 3 years. The problem is my job is more technically demanding than anything I did in the building trades but my yard is competing against repair yards all over the world my job really can't be automated it changes from hour to hour but I have no illusions that there is not an equally qualified pipefitter in India or China that could do my job and if wages or expenses go to high the vessel owners will take their boats elsewhere. A side note about 25% of my coworkers have a bs degree in addition to completing an apprenticeship and about 50% have an AS degree in welding and completed an apprenticeship. The amount of education required to get any job is going up a lot it used to be you could work your way up into project manager/superintendent positions now you have to have at minimum the BS.
06:55 AM on 02/22/2012
China 18.00 a day. But China has the largest standing army in the World and is amassing a world class military hardware.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jwilson1
10:48 AM on 02/20/2012
There are 7 billion people in the world going to 9 billion...not enough jobs to go around. We need to start thinking about how we are all going to live on a planet that can't sustain that many people.
We need to do it now. The politicians are all worrying about getting elected Creating mfg jobs in the US is not going to happen in time to save America.
Mitt and Obama know that this is not going to happen...so do all the rest...so drop all the BS and start telling the public the truth.
03:58 PM on 02/22/2012
YUP
09:48 AM on 02/20/2012
It is the bought and paid for legislators who signed ridicilous trade agreements to bust unions at the request of the 1%'ers, who were mostly born with a silver spoon in their mouths. Nobody ever got to vote in any election about globalization from the very start with NAFTA. Warren Buffett was right when he said the 1%'ers had the A-bomb, control of the media, which is used to brainwash the masses into indentured servitude for the benefit of the few. Public campaign funding and term limits are the only way to take down the "For Sale" sign and get rid of career politicians and end corruption.
09:33 AM on 02/20/2012
Funny as he talks about higher wages he also desires gas at 10 dollars a gallon.Who cares about gas prices?The service price I provide has remained constant for 13 years,my competitors hire illegals.I pay my workers above average pay,can not lower the wages to reflect my real cost they will understandably be hurt and quit.I will then be forced to hire illegals.

I also experience a serious entitlement problem with american job seekers,they want the first week off.Weird?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
wetheenemy
You want to do what with what?
12:06 AM on 02/20/2012
Robert writes, "the president unveiled a six-point plan to eliminate tax incentives for companies to move offshore". I am absolutely astounded that companies were encouraged to move their manufacturing to a foreign country! Am I missing something here? I can't believe it!
01:01 AM on 02/20/2012
Yes, you are missing something. Incentives to move jobs offshore (even specific tax breaks) are often thrown into fiscal legislation. It is not simply indirectly via free trade agreements that America had bled productive jobs, but the government has literally been subsidising it too.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
wetheenemy
You want to do what with what?
03:45 AM on 02/20/2012
Beyond belief. The verbal phrase is "societal genocide"
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
01:51 AM on 02/20/2012
Yes, the Export-Import Bank and the Overseas Private Investment Corporation are corporate welfare.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
wetheenemy
You want to do what with what?
12:03 AM on 02/20/2012
Robert writes an interesting article but the conclusion is incorrect. Forgivable from his lofty perch of academic success which unfortunately removes him from some simple realities such as P/E Ratio in sociological terms. Let me rewrite the conclusion from my tiny room in Saigon; the fundamental problem is the decline of American manufacturing, and reviving manufacturing would solve it. The problem of the declining power of American workers to share in the gains of the American economy is because all of us for the last 35 years have purchased goods made in other countries thereby decimating our manufacturing, our poorly educated middle class and at the same time allowed China and India to grow a huge middle class. Now we are paying the price for our short sightedness. Solution? There is none, our time is done.
10:23 AM on 02/20/2012
The American people did not agree to give up our good jobs for cheap goods. That decision was made by the investors who saw they could get greater profits by using cheap labor to build the products that were once built by Americans.

Not only did our government do nothing to stop the selling of America by the .1%, they actively encouraged it with tax breaks and incentives.

The robber barons and stock pushers bought politicians who enacted laws that put profits ahead of people; and, benefited the investors and only themselves.

It is now time to enact laws that benefit Americans who rely on their paychecks to maintain their quality of life.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
wetheenemy
You want to do what with what?
09:37 PM on 02/20/2012
We elected these buyable government officials, we accepted their chicanery. WE are the reason for the decline and have to accept it. Putting the blame elsewhere is so easy, even now, look at the President Americans have elected, the Prime Minister we have elected. Both eager for war and unrepentant for their lies. Your comment about enacting laws; who is going to pass these laws? Doesn't matter, you can't legislate common sense and honesty. You really have it backwards; it is each of us deciding to buy the cheaper goods because of our inherent greed. I repeat; our society is done, your refusal to take ownership of the problem is why.
11:11 PM on 02/19/2012
One of the biggest problems with the US economy is years of tax cuts for everybody.Yes, most people might have had a bit more disposable income to waste on cheap Chinese goods but meanwhile the education system and infrastructure have been deteriorating.
America needs better education programs to compete globally, not a huge uneducated and unemployed underclass.
Consumerism has failed Americans; all it's done is make people greedy, materialistic and self-centered. Everyone needs to pay MORE taxes and the money needs to be invested in education, sewers, and road upgrading etc.
The US is still a large market and prosperity is possible for all. Buy American, pay your taxes and insist on getting corporate money out of the political process.
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12:35 AM on 02/20/2012
"Made in America" and "Made in China" labels may soon be replaced by:

"Made in the World" labels

http://www.manufacturingnews.com/news/11/0930/madeintheworld.html
European Technocrat­s May Soon Deprive Americans Of Knowing Where Everything They Buy Is Made

"The World Trade Organizati­on, the OECD, the Internatio­nal Chamber of Commerce and the European Commission are moving aggressive­ly to eliminate "Country of Origin" labeling, claiming that it does not reflect the current structure of global trade. The Europe-bas­ed organizati­ons instead want to adopt a "Made in the World" logo for all products on the grounds that global supply chains have rendered country of origin labeling inaccurate and obsolete.

The intent of the proposal is to reduce public pressure on politician­s for protection­ist trade policies..­."

More at:

http://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/miwi_e/miwi_e.htm
WTO | Made in the World
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12:37 AM on 02/20/2012
Many people cannot afford to pay income tax. An article on the 47% who don't pay federal income tax...

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2011/10/signs-of-dissent-what-about-the-47-who-pay-no-federal-income-taxes/246721/
Signs of Dissent: What About the 47% Who Pay No Federal Income Taxes? - Derek Thompson - Business - The Atlantic

"...Who pays no federal income taxes? I think I have the picture you're looking for. This piechart shows the households paying no FIT, with all inset numbers in thousands of dollars (i.e.: 20-30 means $20,000 to $30,000). The big takeaway is that more than half of the folks who pay no federal income tax make less than $20,000 a year. It is also true that 7,000 millionaires paid no federal income tax last year (more on that factoid here)...."
10:25 AM on 02/20/2012
Federal income taxes are only 42% of the annual federal budget. Who do you think is paying the other 58%?
09:12 PM on 02/19/2012
Right on. - The problem is the inability of non-college degree educated American workers to find good paying jobs. Exactly.

Unfortunately, most suggested "solutions" to this problem aren't. As R.R. points out, a manufacturing comeback is not going to do it. - And Obama's targeting of manufacturing is just more give-aways to the rich at the, face it, expense of everyone else, because someone has to make up the lost revenue and payouts.

Another popular non-solution: educate everyone to the college degree level. We already have a plethora of almost worthless college degrees. There is no way to "educate everyone" without substantial further watering down of the degree. At the end, more money spent (big $$$ for this one), nothing accomplished.

I am a firm believer in unions, but am not sure that negotiating power can solve this problem.

I wish someone could come up with a good solution to this problem. If someone could just identify one, throwing lots of our personal money at it might solve OUR problems, $$$$-wise.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Steve Lives
The Venus Project ... look it up
11:23 PM on 02/19/2012
Look into the Venus Project. It's a solution, though not one many understand at this point.
www.thevenusproject.com
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10:03 AM on 02/20/2012
Trade schools need to be part of the equation. Not everyone wants or needs an academic education. Manufacturers (particularly the revitalized auto industry today) complain that the workers they laid off years ago don't have the skills required to work in newly modernized factories. They should be partnering with community and vocational colleges to develop the required skills.
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Artos
Down with Tyrants
08:01 PM on 02/19/2012
Rob, I'm not fooled, but I do believe many of my fellow Liberals are. They want Obama to win so badly that they are willing to settle for typical Election year baloney. I don't care whether it's a Repbulican or a Democrat, they both like to feed us B.S. so long as it gets them another term. I Wouldn't have minded voting for Obama yet another term, if he had spent the last three years trying to do everything he is now attempting to cram into this last single year. That may be good enough for my fellow Liberals but not for me. I don't like being taken for a ride no matter who it is. It doesn't sit well with me to be manipulated. I will cast my vote for MIckey Mouse or Donald Duck before I vote for either a Republican or Obama. Maybe I'll just elect to sit this one out on principle.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
chris hatala
07:04 PM on 02/19/2012
The teapubs want to make the US like China, unlivable wages for work. Beware the Evil Empire.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
wetheenemy
You want to do what with what?
12:10 AM on 02/20/2012
Chris hasn't been to China. Fancy cars, big houses and a middle class growing like crazy. The jokes on you Chris; if we were more like China it would be a good thing.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Janzee12000
05:33 PM on 02/19/2012
RR paints a picture that is pretty spot on with the issues facing manufacturing in the US. The wealthy are interested in the return on investment which is dictated by the projections of analysts in Wall Street. So any decline in projections means a decline in return. The wealthy will do anything to meet those short term goals as is their obligation to themselves and others as investors. Until, we define what is an acceptable metric to measure profits other than these short term results we will never see the growth necessary rekindle manufacturing in the US. Even if we go hole hog into alternative energy this too will make it's way overseas unless we change...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
wetheenemy
You want to do what with what?
12:10 AM on 02/20/2012
Very clever analysis, the rich are the problem.....
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
cbates
03:23 PM on 02/19/2012
To a time in this country to allow employment of those folks. I think this failure to educate our young will allow other nations to be more competitive as world leaders.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
cbates
03:21 PM on 02/19/2012
I somewhat agree that we are not dealing with the root cause of this country's ills. Fundamentally we should really be looking at crating new energy sources, improved efficiencies of current technologies, along with many more opportunities. Yet we find ourselves with uneducated workers, few dreamers and many with high school or less education. Therein we must double back to the