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Robert Reich

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Newt's Tax Plan, and Why His Polls Rise the More Outrageous He Becomes

Posted: 12/13/11 09:24 PM ET

Newt Gingrich has done it again. With his new tax plan he has raised the bar from irresponsibility to recklessness.

Every dollar estimate I'm about to share with you comes from the independent, non-partisan Tax Policy Center -- a group whose estimates are used by almost everyone in Washington regardless of political persuasion.

First off, Newt's plan increases the federal budget deficit by about $850 billion -- in a single year!

To put this in perspective, most forecasts of the budget deficit cover ten years. The elusive goal of the White House and many on both sides of the aisle in Congress is to reduce that ten-year deficit by 3 to 4 trillion dollars.

Newt goes in the other direction, with gusto. Increasing the deficit by $850 billion in a single year is beyond the wildest imaginings of the least responsible budget mavens within a radius of three thousand miles from Washington.

Imagine what Standard & Poor's or Moody's or Fitch would do if it became law. We'd go directly from a triple-A credit rating to triple X -- the veritable porn star of fiscal mayhem. Interest on our debt would become larger than most of the rest of the budget.

Most of this explosion of debt in Newt's plan occurs because he slashes taxes. But not just anyone's taxes. The lion's share of Newt's tax cuts benefit the very, very rich.

That's because he lowers their marginal income tax rate to 15 percent -- down from the current 35 percent, which was Bush's temporary tax cut; down from 39 percent under Bill Clinton; down from at least 70 percent in the first three decades after World War II. Newt also gets rid of taxes on unearned income -- the kind of income that the super-rich thrive on -- capital-gains, dividends, and interest.

Under Newt's plan, each of the roughly 130,000 taxpayers in the top .1 percent -- the richest one-tenth of one percent -- reaps an average tax cut of $1.9 million per year. Add what they'd otherwise have to pay if the Bush tax cut expired on schedule, and each of them saves $2.3 million a year.

To put it another way, under Newt's plan, the total tax bill of the top one-tenth of one percent drops from around 38 percent of their income to around 10 percent.

What about low-income households? They get an average tax cut of $63 per year.

Oh, I almost forgot: Newt also slashes corporate taxes.

I'm not making this up.

This might be amusing if Newt were just being old Newt -- if this were another infamous hot-air bubble emerging from an always provocative, sometimes clever, often bizarre mind.

But it's the tax plan of the leading candidate for president of one of the two major political parties of the United States.

And it comes at a time when America's super rich are raking in a larger portion of total income and wealth than at any time over the last eighty years, and when their marginal taxes are lower than they've been in three decades; a time when the nation's long-term budget deficit is causing cuts in education and infrastructure which will impair our future and that of our children, and when safety nets and social services are being slashed.

Can Newt get away with this?

Probably -- because his plan also comes at a time when Americans are so cynical about the major institutions of our society that someone who offers huge, outrageous plans holds a special fascination: The whole system is so awful, people tell themselves, why not just jettison everything and start from scratch? Let's throw caution to the winds and do something really big -- even if it's colossally stupid.

This is why the more outrageous Newt can be, the better his polls. The more irresponsible his bomb-throwing, the more attractive he becomes to a sizable portion of Americans so fed up they feel like throwing bombs.

History is full of strong men with dangerous ideas who gain power when large masses of people are so desperate and disillusioned they'll follow anyone who offers big, seemingly easy solutions.

At times like this a nation must depend on its wise elders -- people who have gained a reputation for good judgment and integrity, and who are broadly respected by all sides regardless of political affiliation or ideology -- to call out the demagogues, speak the truth, and restore common sense.

The great tragedy of America today is the paucity of such individuals when we need them the most.

Robert Reich is the author of Aftershock: The Next Economy and America's Future, now in bookstores. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org.

 
 
 

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Newt Gingrich has done it again. With his new tax plan he has raised the bar from irresponsibility to recklessness. Every dollar estimate I'm about to share with you comes from the independent, non-p...
Newt Gingrich has done it again. With his new tax plan he has raised the bar from irresponsibility to recklessness. Every dollar estimate I'm about to share with you comes from the independent, non-p...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Josh Crawford
Just the facts, man!
05:50 PM on 12/15/2011
In "Bizarro World) (aka "Opposite Land"), the massive BushTaxCut­s of the last decade worked and the ClintonTax­Increases of the 90s (passed in 1993 without a SINGLE GOP vote) were a total failure. Meanwhile, here in the REAL WORLD, the BTCs have been an unmitigate­d failure and EVERYONE thinks of the 90s as the "good old days"! Wake up Republican drones: Supply Side Economics (aka "VOODOO" economics) is a vicious LIE!!!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ennis438
12:02 PM on 12/15/2011
The insane electorate that installed these useless (at least to the majority of the population) members of Congress who actively work every waking moment to destroy the American dream for 99% of the citizens so the corporate welfare and tax cuts can keep coming for the richest, seemingly does not care what happens here. The popularity of Gingrich , therefore, is no big surprise.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
madbonger618
08:25 AM on 12/15/2011
It's all GHS driving this party. Greed, Hate & Stupidity!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Josh Crawford
Just the facts, man!
08:36 PM on 12/14/2011
In "Bizarro World) (aka "Opposite Land"), the massive BushTaxCuts of the last decade worked and the ClintonTaxIncreases of the 90s (passed in 1993 without a SINGLE GOP vote) were a total failure. Meanwhile, here in the REAL WORLD, the BTCs have been an unmitigated failure and EVERYONE thinks of the 90s as the "good old days"! Wake up Republican drones: Supply Side Economics (aka "VOODOO" economics) is a vicious LIE!!!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Gadgetman
No sense of humor? That's not funny!
06:51 PM on 12/14/2011
"Meanwhile, former House Speaker Newt Gingrich predicted that his recent rise in the polls is not a fluke: 'The American people want an adult, and no one has a stronger record of adultery than I do.' ~Andy Borowitz
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Sahuaro
Molded by Gilligan, Hogan, Darrin, 99, Spock, &Ayn
06:30 PM on 12/14/2011
Reich tells the tax half of the story. Newt's spending half of the story balances it out. Nobody is commenting on that, because it's going to hurt.
02:08 PM on 12/29/2011
If it's true that isn't being discussed, it's probably because it literally isn't possible to slash 850 billion from the budget in one year. There is no way Congress could ever pass a spending bill that goes from around 3 trillion now to 2.1 trillion, no way.

People can complain about spendign all they want but when their needed program is on the chopping block then it's a different story. And it's not partisan either, in Texas, the GOP controls everything with supermajorities and even the Texas legislature couldn't come anywhere close to balancing it's budget with spending cuts alone. They tried, but failed.
06:14 PM on 12/14/2011
I wonder how he plans to pay for his lunar colony? Maybe he can get inner city elementary school children to.do it cheap?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
2pence
ignorance should not be contagious
05:35 PM on 12/14/2011
Newt is dangerous because he can effectively oversimplfy stupid ideas to where they look sound byte brillant, the perfect tidbit for the voter who is not an indepth thinker, self researcher, or analytical; unfortunatly a majority of American voters tend to fit this description. His death spiral in political arena cannot come too soon.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
EspritDeVoltaire
K Street PR firm board member
03:48 PM on 12/14/2011
Newt flits around like a mosquito looking to draw blood oblivious to the fact a great big slap is coming.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gevan
the pilgrim has landed
03:25 PM on 12/14/2011
Republicans don't really care about the deficit. They just pander for votes by holding out the promise of cash for taxpayers.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
joetrade
biography
03:24 PM on 12/14/2011
The only people that would support this caricature of a viable Presidential candidate are the poor frustrated Republicans who had to watch the rotating circus of clowns who believe that they have the ability to be the next American president! The Republican mob are so incensed with racial hatred that they would support and vote for Charley Brown if they thought that he would reduce their taxes and start another war against their latest bogeyman "The War on Terror"! (read Iran)! I think that it is arguable that the Bush administration did more damage to this country than all the so called terrorists combined and unfortunately,these criminals still are free and prospering in this society! Let us hope and pray that we never,ever elect a President as incompetent and dangerous as he!
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HUFFPOST PUNDIT
PatLow
A karate man bruises on the inside
02:44 PM on 12/14/2011
How is this a surpirse? Look at spending after the contract with america, which promised fiscal responsibility. Gingrich is the poster boy for republican spending sprees.
02:31 PM on 12/14/2011
The part of our GDP that has lowered the most in our economic downturn is private investment. So lowering the tax rate on investment does make sense. I don't think that you make it zero though. Generally speaking a tax system that simplified our tax code and its 60,000+ pages while lowering the overall rate would be a good thing. You could increase revenues if it is done correctly. Same thing with our corporate taxes which currently are the highest in the world, but many get exemptions and credits on. End those exemptions and make the rate competitive with other countries. You have to find a balance. Policies have to work for all sides or they won't work at all.
02:12 PM on 12/14/2011
When the "wise elders" are legally on-the-take or have chosen to work in the private sector, it's difficult to rely on them. The good from this is that he's proposed something and it can be demonstrated to be dangerous. As almost everyone I know is completely baffled by people that believe that failed fiscal policieis are supposed to fix our financial ills, maybe this newest suggestion will penetrate.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Sharkcellar
support your local library.
01:47 PM on 12/14/2011
"History is full of strong men with dangerous ideas who gain power when large masses of people are so desperate and disillusioned they'll follow anyone who offers big, seemingly easy solutions."

This is why "moderates" are so dangerous as voters. They are, quite often, disinterested in the particulars of why a candidate is/isn't qualified to hold office, as long as they are dinging the right bells.