Next Thursday President Obama will unveil his jobs plan.
He'll choose either Plan A or Plan B.
Plan A would be big enough to restart the economy (now barely growing) and reduce unemployment (which continues to grow). That means spending another trillion dollars over the next two years -- rebuilding the nation's infrastructure, creating a new WPA and Civilian Conservation Corps, and lending money to cash-starved states and cities.
Republicans will oppose it, of course. They'll say the stimulus didn't work the first time (they're wrong -- it saved 3 million jobs but it was way too small given the drop in consumer spending as well as budget cuts by states and cities), and we can't afford it (wrong again -- the yield on 10-year Treasury bills is now 2 percent, meaning this is the best time to borrow. And if growth isn't restored soon, the debt/GDP ratio will balloon beyond belief). But their real hope is to keep the economy anemic through Election Day 2012 so voters will send Obama home.
That means the president would have to fight for it. He'd have to barnstorm the country, demanding Republican votes. He'd build his 2012 campaign around it, attacking the Republican "do nothing" Congress. He'd give 'em hell.
Plan B would be a bunch of policy miniatures that would have almost no effect on the economy or employment but would nonetheless be good things to do (extending the Social Security tax cut, extending unemployment benefits, reauthorizing the highway building trust fund, giving employers a tax incentive to hire the long-term unemployed, ratifying trade agreements).
Republicans will oppose it, of course. They'll say this is no time for new initiatives, that our biggest problem is the size of government, debt, and over-regulation. They've been saying almost exactly the same thing for eighty years.
The president would present each of his policy miniatures as a separate piece of legislation hoping to attract enough Republican votes to get something -- anything -- enacted and declare a victory. He'd then campaign as a leader who can "get things done," even though the economy is still a basket case.
Which will it be -- Plan A or B? Early indications suggest Plan B. The president is now saying his upcoming plan will generate "up to a million jobs." But with 25 million Americans looking for full-time jobs that's chump change.
Bad choice.
The night before the president lays out his jobs plan, Republican presidential hopefuls will be holding their first big debate. The winner will be the one who comes off as the toughest fighter for average Americans.
The winner of the 2012 presidential election will be the person who comes off as the toughest fighter for average Americans.
Earth to Obama: Remember Harry (Give 'em Hell) Truman.
Here's Truman's acceptance speech at the Philadelphia convention that nominated him prior to the 1948 election:
Senator Barkley and I will win this election and make those Republicans like it... We will do that because they are wrong and we are right... [T]he people know the Democratic Party is the people's party, and the Republican Party is the party of special interests and it always has been and always will be... The Republican Party... favors the privileged few and not the common, every-day man. Ever since its inception that Party has been under the control of special privilege, and they concretely proved it in the 80th Congress. They proved it by the things they did to the people and not for them. They proved it by the things they failed to do.
Give em hell, Barack.
Robert Reich is the author of Aftershock: The Next Economy and America's Future, now in bookstores. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org.
Follow Robert Reich on Twitter: www.twitter.com/RBReich
My guess is that the GOP, as always, will obstruct and attempt to dilute and weaken because they know that jobs is a winner for everyone. Right now Obama has more people behind him than he's seen since the election and the GOP is scared crapless that they will be backed against the wall and forced to help average people. Their noise machine isn't loud enough to shout down Americans hunger for employment.
The President needs to bulldoze a big path with jobs because it's a complete winner.
I was going to bother replying to one with something factual about Roosevelt and The Great Depression, but some people cling to beliefs no matter what -- so he can stick to precious religious fantasies about the past and his Capitalist War God Jesus. Such beliefs don't change historical facts about Roosevelt (whose many Jobs programs during the 1930s FACTUALLY put 8,000,000 people to work through the government, thus reducing the RISE in unemployment by 7 full percentage points, and produced GDP rises after 1933 averaging 5.5 percentage points per year) and the Great Depression (caused by Wall Street, Republicans and their Free, Unregulated Markets myths).
The Global Economy is teetering today, but corruption was never punished, perpetrators never imprisoned, moneys never clawed back, institutions never felled for their participation in the scams and ponzi schemes (no -- not Social Security) of the millennium. The corrupt perpetrators were saved and made whole, instead. Had Obama come in with the kind of backbone, iron will and rage that Roosevelt offered the country, things would be different today -- and the vapid costume-wearing, history sartyrizing tea partiers would never have garnered attention during 2010. Such as it is -- this Administration has given in to every single demand the Republicans have made, so now we sit, 3 trillion dollars later, 2 major wars -- both failed -- still burning through our wealth -- on the verge of another catastrophic collapse courtesy the fraud-ridden unregulated
Plan C, Robert: pump money into US small businesses that will actually grow jobs.
This Administration is run by a Wet Noodle, the Capitulator-In-Chief; he wobbles around at the slightest breeze of opposition, caving on every single demand he makes the moment the fundamentalist zealots call him names or, like big babies, make threats. His advisors are equally incompetent, or shill for the Corporate Financial Class.
This Administration continues to wilt and weaken with every passing day, and seems incapable of adapting to a different model despite the obvious failure of 'reaching across the isle, and selling out at all costs'; welcome to the rise in 2012 of Hyper Right Wing Wild West Theocracy. I'll imagine the next President will attend White House dinners brandishing his or her favorite firearm, loaded no doubt.
When the US entered the great-depression it had room for that failed spending. The nation was not carrying a horrible debt burden or massive entitlement programs as it is today.
I've noticed the left not only believes massive spending and borrowing is the answer....they are also preaching that evil big business has money in the bank and is to blame for not making the jobs. Even though we know that it's small business that creates the bulk of the jobs in this country, they blame big business. And now that Obama no longer has complete control of the congress the left is also blaming tea party, Republicans, Palin, Big business, storms, earth quakes, and you name it. Anyone but Obama.
We had a recession because of a runaway housing bubble. We encouraged sub-prime loans to put poor people into housing they could not afford. And average homeowners were borrowing against the inflated value of their housing and increasing their debt.
Small business is not trying to punish obama with no jobs. Small business will hire again when the economy hits bottom and people start spending again. All the rest is more or less propaganda and blame shifting.
Obama needs to get tough and openly reject this job-strangling balanced budget BS and propose real stimulus and infrastructure projects. Let's hear it for Plan A!
Small business does create jobs and does deserve tax incentives. But don't throw money blindly at the bankers, investors and corporate masters by lowering taxes on them as well.
In the end, he left the administration and declared their policies had failed.
This MYTH that you can buy your way out of a depression is what's EXTENDING the recession and creating it's own failure.
You CAN buy your way out of a recession. You can NOT CUT your way out.
Why won't the media cover ALL candidates properly? Isn't their "job" to keep us informed? What good can come from the current cherry-picked debates from all the tainted wanna-bees, none of whom has shown enough good ideas to move us beyond our leadership stalemate?
What is it about Ron Paul that scares the media away from bi-partisan discussions about what he "brings to the table" that others cannot/willnot?
GROSS neglect of duty to their viewers and others! As usual, the people are speaking...but no one is listening, because everyone is spoon-fed by rich media celebs putting their own spins on the damaged professional pols that have little to offer except more words and fewer IDEAS!
We want to know more about Ron Paul! Is that asking too much of the medias we support, or are they going to remain oblivious to process we have in place to find a better candidate(s)?
When the media chooses their own candidates to report on (or not), we the people are in SERIOUS TROUBLE. It will only get worse.
If there are 25 candidates, then we need to know all about ALL of them, not just the ones they like best.
Republican policy since 2000 has been to take the money and run. The wars, tax cuts, deficits, economic crash, McCain/Palin fiasco were all signals that their financiers were ready to cash in on their investment in the party, even if it meant a decade out of power. Only Obama could have managed to "bipartisanship" his way into irrelevance in such a situation and let the GOP off the ropes.
Now, having been given a second wind and time to regroup, Republican benefactors are eying our safety net programs as a satiated predator keeps track of the direction the gazelle herd ran in. They know they'll be hungry again soon and will already have the plan laid to capture their next meal at the expense of the herd.