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Robert Reich

Robert Reich

Posted: May 7, 2010 09:42 AM

The (Almost) Crash of Wall Street

What's Your Reaction:

Ninety minutes before the end of the trading day Thursday, the U.S. stock market almost melted down. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped nearly 1,000 points. The market regained ground before the end, like a giant 747 narrowly averting a crash landing, but the questions of the day are: What happened? And what does it mean?

At this point no one knows why. Some say it was sudden burst of worries about Greece's debt and the increasing possibility of a default that might cause a run by global investors. Others point to a "trading error." Giant high-speed computers generate millions of trades based on instructions embedded in computer programs designed to move fast enough to beat everyone else. So when there's a glitch in one of them it can immediately spread to all the other programs designed to move just as fast. Some say it was an erroneous trade entered by someone at a big Wall Street bank who mistyped an order to sell a large block of stock, and that the big drop in that stock's price (Procter & Gamble?) triggered "sell" orders across the market.

Regardless of why it happened, it's further evidence that the nation's and the world's capital markets have become a vast out-of-control casino in which fortunes can be made or lost in an instant -- which would be fine except for the fact that most of us have put our life savings there. Pension funds, mutual funds, school endowments -- the value of all of this depends on a mechanism that can lose a trillion dollars in minutes without anyone having a clear idea why. So much of the market now depends on computer programs and mathematical models that no one fully understands, so much trading is in the hands of a few people whose fat thumbs or momentary carelessness might sink the economy, so much of global wealth now depends on who can move their money quickest at the slightest provocation -- that we are toying with financial disaster every day. The luck or foolishness of a few traders, and inside knowledge and information that some possess and others don't, combined with ultra high-speed computers, put us all at the whim of a system whose risk is way out of proportion to any public benefits.

The financial reforms being considered on Capitol Hill are steps in the right direction. But the "systemic risk" now embedded in our capital markets is higher than ever, and will require far greater understanding and vigilance than now being considered.

Cross-posted from RobertReich.org.

 
 
 
 
 
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11:01 PM on 05/12/2010
I guess we have to talk until we're as blue in the face as a Na'vi. The move towards gold as a standard, store of value, and now a reserve currency, by nations no less, is a message to the average person.
Fiat currency will break anyone who depends on it. There are those who don't depend on it. And those who can insulate from the permanently altered credit markets. But the message is not received by sovereign nations and governments. Money must be reformed with a new economics based on labor standards that are unalterable. Mr. Reich was a Labor Secretary who chooses to comment, and still does not understand the problem of money. He only looks into the abyss and sees how far he could fall. He is unrepentant.
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stevendedalus3
12:57 PM on 05/12/2010
We haven't advanced from the snake oil days to Ipad. The crap we invest in have little meaning--snake oil is not going to innocuously clear the oil in the Gulf's surf, nor will Apple prevent meltdown. In the midst of obesity, a top gainer on the Dow is McDonalds, while we are supposed to be trimming down, Ipad and Iphone lead the way in butt spread.
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Seán O'Nilbud
Drunken Master
04:16 PM on 05/11/2010
Yeah it's the computers are the problem not the regulators. That kind of horseshit is illegal in civilized countries.
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attilathehoneycom
a conservative in the digital
04:47 PM on 05/10/2010
Your post only touches upon the small problems at hand and not the domino effect of the problems we now see in Greece. In 1999 the Eurocrats wanted a U.S. of Europe. The first step being a monetary union of 13 states that adopted the Euro and agreed to keep their budget deficits below 3% of GDP annually. Fast forward 11 years. Greece not only did not do this but with the help of Goldman Sachs, lied about it - and their budget this year approaches 14% of GDP. Now we have the domino effect on the world economy. There are those that say that the Euros crashing will help the U.S. economy. Those tooting this horn need a reality check because the buying of our debt is but a temporary fix.The U.S 2010 budget deficit is 12% of the GDP - the highest of any industrialized country after Greece. As this deficit is projected to run for years to come, what the market is really worried about is losing confidence in the U.S. debt, which would upend the world financial order. China is quietly standing by and making money.The American people have a right to the truth.
AttilaHoneyCom
09:22 AM on 05/10/2010
The actual action was, without doubt, computerized trading. Live human traders could not possibly have bid the market down so fast.

The real question is what was the trigger?
02:02 PM on 05/10/2010
The trigger was the Banksters making sure that Congress took no action to regulate or break them up. This is pure and simple financial terrorism.

You either give us everything we want or we take you down!
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corte33
04:22 PM on 05/09/2010
Institutions have been using computer trading programs for a long time. I doubt Proctor & Gamble has much effect on the market. I believe there were sell orders which triggered other sells, and then buy orders when the market reached a trigger point. It's more manipulation, pure and simple.
The sad thing is, lots of people got "stopped" out of the market and lost a lot of money.
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mudshark12
Now who are you jiving with that cosmik debris?
01:01 PM on 05/09/2010
This is a very scary look at what happened (and could happen again). Clearly there needs to be some form of regulation on Wall Street because they are not interested in regulating themselves. The near-crash is like a bunch of kids (the stock brokers) stealing a car (the economy) then crashing it into a telephone pole and running away (a total lack of accountability).
09:23 AM on 05/10/2010
No, more like Russian Roulette.
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humanbeing-rick
Born in the USA 1947
10:07 AM on 05/09/2010
Great, the SEC should investigate this quickly! Before the trail goes cold.
Our financial systems are being manipulated by financial terrorists, who cause far more damage than any standing armies could. Seek them out and destroy them! This is war!
09:07 AM on 05/10/2010
Could be. Could be a software bug. Could be an ugly interaction among trading algorithms. Could be a hacker. It could be any number of things. The very fact that no one knows is the most disturbing piece of information.

This episode proves that we have now conceived and constructed a financial system that we don't really understand at all, but that can destroy us at any time.

It makes Russian Roulette look boring...and makes just about as much sense.

And, yet...we...will...keep...playing....

What do you all think the outcome is likely to be? I think I have an idea, and it's not pretty.
08:30 AM on 05/09/2010
That was no meltdown. It was free market in action. - Parasites making profit over the losses of others.

Some fund or group of funds / banks sold amssive numbers of stocks. Then the market went down and they had placed "bets" on it going down so they could buy it all back when it hit the predefined low.

That was no magic, no mystery, no crash. It was an artificailly induced drop so a few parasitic criminals could then make billions while othery pay for it.

Guess who lost.
11:51 PM on 05/09/2010
It might have been artificially induced but a sell order does not explain why shares of Sotheby's (BID) jumped from $33 to $100,000. Think about it; people sell P&G, how does that make any stock go UP? And that rise: over 3,000% !?!?
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kurtvb
Knowledge is Power
07:28 AM on 05/09/2010
Robert Reich, among others, has proposed a transaction tax. Not only would this slow down trading, but would also generate money for the government. But there is a possible answer to the stock market near crash the other day. It was a deliberate attempt to lower the value of all stocks, to make money on shorts and puts, and then to buy back at the lower value. The way that Wall St. works and the minds of traders this is a distinct possibility. With the advent of instant computer trading, it would be easy to insert the code to make this happen. This could be a new way for the banks to make money now that the derivative markets may be getting regulated.
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humanbeing-rick
Born in the USA 1947
10:09 AM on 05/09/2010
Computerized automated high-frequency trading systems skim the profits off the top with slpit micro-second timing that most average Americans could not possibly compete with. It is an unfair advantage that has been leveraged to the maximum. It must be stopped. We must have a level playing field!
09:08 AM on 05/10/2010
There's never been a level playing field.
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dhinds
A Collection of Quotable Gems
07:25 AM on 05/09/2010
You are saying that control of the stock market has been delegated to machines running algorithms that are unable to anticipate all possible scenarios and yet, are programmed to take charge and react in equally unforeseeable ways.

So the potential for an uncontrolled (and possibly uncontrollable) chain reaction that destroys the economy is built into the current system.

If this is the case, you are describing an issue that must be dealt with.

You have held high positions in government in relation to the economy and now teach (economy, I assume) at UC Berkeley.

Why aren't you making any suggestions? (Or do we have to buy one of your books)?

(I am not questioning your claims. I am doing what you should be doing -and I hope you are- with your own students).
02:43 AM on 05/09/2010
Why can't we have the obvious solution of having a very small transaction tax on buying and selling. It would generate huge revenues and punish these insane quant programs that create all this volatility. They are destroying people's confidence that investing in publically traded corporations is a way of allocating capital.
12:26 AM on 05/09/2010
Wall Street and the Fed want you to know they are angry with reform. Very, very angry.
11:26 PM on 05/08/2010
I can tell you why: Wall Street is running on fumes. It's been propped up by bailouts and the money has run out. Everyone's on pins and needles waiting for the part two of the double dip--and it's gonna be a doozy.
11:22 PM on 05/08/2010
Repeal of safeguard regulations, such as the uptick rule, circuit breakers and trading curbs, the introduction of the short ETF's-has given members of Managed Funds Association tremendous power & influence: like John Paulson, James Simon...including those who operate Quant Funds, (check their high frequency trading in dark pools). Some registered off-shore to avoid scrutiny (and taxes), with mostly anonymous investors. What happened Thurs. happens daily to a select group of individual stocks-hedge fund short sellers prey on common investors. They're expanding their manipulation to include the whole market; which they can crash, panic shareholders out of their stocks, buy to cover their short positons for hefty shorting profits,buy back in at the bottom to open long positions, then recover the whole market (indexes) to nearly normal levels-all within a 15 min. period. HOW'S THAT FOR NO-RISK INVESTING? They make money through stock price and market volatility; manipulating stock prices through unrestricted short selling. Regulations were repealed, so the risk of investing's been transferred SOLELY to common investors "as the hedge fund short sellers operate with impunity looting the invested capital of American families". What happened Thurs. will happen again-they're getting bolder daily. Hedge fund short sellers(members of MFA), and their strategic partners at different stock exchanges, are responsible for the SCAM perpetrated on Thurs. The carnage and destruction of investor's capital was therefore concealed--the evil of hedge fund short selling in an unregulated market. None of the financial reform bill deals with this.