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Robert Reich

Robert Reich

Posted: January 12, 2010 07:21 PM

The Final Question: Who Will Pay for Health Care?

What's Your Reaction:

There's only one big remaining issue on health care reform: how to pay for it. The House wants a 5.4 percent surtax on couples earning at least $1 million in annual income. The Senate wants a 40 percent excise tax on employer-provided "Cadillac plans." The Senate will win on this unless the public discovers that a large portion of the so-called Cadillacs are really middle-class Chevys, expensive not because they deliver more benefits but because they have higher costs.

The dirty little secret under the hood is that less than 4 percent of the variation in the cost of current health-care plans has to do with how many benefits they provide. Most plans that cost more do so because (1) a particular set of employees is older and tends to get sicker than the average set of employees (that's true for a lot of old rust-belt firms), (2) the plan is offered by a small business that lacks bargaining clout with insurers (small businesses pay, on average, 16 percent more for the health insurance they provide, per capita), (3) the work that employees do subjects them to greater risk of medical problems (health-care workers, for example), or (4) most employees are women (who tend to have higher health-care costs than men because women are the ones who bear children). Plans could also cost more but deliver average benefits because (5) insurers in the area don't face much competition (one main reason for the public option).

So by taxing so-called Cadillac plans, the Senate bill would actually end up taxing the Chevy plans of a large portion of the middle class. And as time goes by, a still larger portion, since the Senate plan is geared to the overall rate of inflation rather than to the (much higher) rate of increases in health-care costs.

Defenders of the Senate plan say not to worry. Employers who bear the tax and therefore have an incentive to cut back on health care for their employees will make it up to employees in higher wages. But anyone taking even a passing glance at today's labor market knows this is wishful thinking. Employers have no incentive to raise wages when almost everyone is worried about keeping their jobs. (Besides, a dollar's worth of tax-free health benefit is worth more than a taxable dollar of wages.)

In any event, I thought a major purpose of health-care reform was to get more care to more people, not to cut it back. Even employees who get extra dollars of wages to make up for the cutbacks won't necessarily plow those wages back into health care.

Some say the Senate's excise tax is the only way to control long-term health care costs. Baloney. If a portion of the middle class loses their health care, they won't get the preventive care that's so crucial to containing long-term costs. If Congress wanted to do more cost containment it would allow Medicare and Medicaid to use their huge bargaining power to get lower costs from pharmaceutical makers and medical suppliers. And it would have a public option to compete with private insurers.

Of course, we're playing with probabilities here. No one knows exactly what will happen when the Senate excise tax hits -- how many employers will cut back coverage without raising wages to compensate, how many middle class people will be hit hard by this, how many who do get higher wages will use them to buy health care, including preventive care.

But why even take these chances when the House bill simply and cleanly goes after the top 1 percent? It's not as if couples earning over a million can't afford to pay the tax. When I last looked, the top 1 percent was taking home a record 23 percent of total income. If anything, the Great Recession is widening the gap. It's bonus time on Wall Street again. But the middle class is taking a beating.

This is the last big fight on health care reform. It's being fought right now. Make your voice heard.


Cross-posted from RobertReich.org.

 
 
 
 
 
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11:28 PM on 01/15/2010
$24 Trillion pumped into the financial system by the Fed http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aY0tX8UysIaM

Bank fee on Bounce president shouldn't have gave tax payers money to banks in the first place
02:37 PM on 01/15/2010
If someone else is paying for health care it will continue to increase. Who would not want more health care if it is free? You can only eat or drink so much but you can use all the health care you can get.

Unfortunately the reform bill(s) are trying to do too much in one bill. It seems like they have dropped most of the approaches to reducing costs and are focused on higher taxes to cover the uninsured. So the fight is over who pays.

Generally taxes on high incomes gradually start to impact more and more people as inflation pushes people up the chart. Witness the Alternative Minimum Tax. If inflation increases to 10% from today's 3% (not unlikely), people with an AGI of $100,000 will find themselves subject to the increases in their lifetime, which the government will correct with the same speed they have applied to the AMT.

If we all want to cover health care for everyone (I agree) then we should all have a part in covering it so that we pay attention to how the money is spent.
03:19 PM on 01/14/2010
Thank you for your excellent analysis.

You say, "The Senate will win on this unless the public discovers that a large portion of the so-called Cadillacs are really middle-class Chevys..." I agree. But why is it that the public hasn't discovered it yet? I don't understand.
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06:01 PM on 01/15/2010
Do the words "corporate media" ring a bell?
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ThePeoplesKey
Writer/General Disreputable Rogue
02:50 PM on 01/14/2010
Had our representatives enacted a single payer system like every other civilized nation in the world, the question of who pays wouldn't need to be asked. We could each then turn to the person next to us, point our finger at them and say, "He/She does . . .
02:25 PM on 01/14/2010
"The top 1% is getting 23% of total income" But what percent of the tax burden do they pay?
Actually though I would love to see these rich liberals have to give all their money to the government and have 20 people move into their mansions with them. Think Queen Pelosi would do that?
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ThePeoplesKey
Writer/General Disreputable Rogue
02:52 PM on 01/14/2010
You have to have "income" to pay income taxes. So if you think the wealthy are paying more taxes than I am, you're either wealthy, uneducated on the matter, or delusional . . .
03:52 PM on 01/14/2010
Please explain.

The blog says the top 1% was taking home 23% of total income (correct me if I'm reading that incorrectly).

40% of the Government's income tax receipts come from the top 1% (again, if you've seen different numbers, just let me know, but this figure doesn't appear to be controversial as far as I can determine).

So we're talking income taxes, and we seem to be talking about the same 1%.

We have a progressive tax system, designed so those with more income not only pay more dollars, but also a higher percentage of their income.

So, by definition, as you earn more, you pay more - I've never seen anything to contradict this.

Sales and excise taxes are not progressive, so a cigarette tax would take a higher percentage of a poor person's income than of a rich person's, assuming they bought the same amount of cigarettes.

But even in these areas, the wealthy minority still pays the majority of taxes, because they buy more.

So all you're left with is that rich people avoid most taxes through tricky accounting schemes. But that directly contradicts the data above.

If you have any data, I'd love to see it.

I'm not saying that rich folks should be paying more or less - but you should be able to admit that we do have a progressive taxation scheme already, and that you'd just like it to be more progressive, which is a valid opinion that can be discussed rationally.
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01:04 PM on 01/14/2010
I've been fortunate, I have traveled abroad many times. I always stay in areas where the locals live, if I can. People are usually eager to have conversations with me, as I am truly interested in their every day lives, as compared with the U.S. Of course, health care comes up. In so many words they are stunned at our selfishness and apparent lack of compassion towards fellow Americans when it comes to the suffering one encounteres when health care is unavailable for whatever reason. (Unaffordability, preexisting conditions, purged off the rolls because...too sick, had acne treatment as a teenager, reached lifetime limit, etc) They pay taxes and gripe as anyone would; not surprising. But it is done with a smile and half-heartedly. When posed the question of whether they would trade their health care system for ours, emphatically, they answer with a resounding "NO," they again smile, and say "NEVER." I truly believe we will get a start on health care reform from the Obama Administration. It will not be anywhere near perfect for many years and then will always need tweaking, common sense. I believe in a strong America with health care for all, along with affordable higher education. If we don't stop being so damn selfish, we are going to find ourselves way behind in this global economy.
02:04 PM on 01/14/2010
I also travel and talk to the local people. Yes those people do have universal health care, but they pay A LOT in taxes and it is everybody. Here it is always just the "rich" that are suppose to pay more. I always ask liberals here "How much of a "rich" person's income should go to the government" and they won't answer it. Maybe we could do more if the government didn't waste so much money.
It is also a myth about higher education being free for everyone in other countires. It is only the students at the top of their classes that go on to higher education.
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12:44 PM on 01/14/2010
Robert, I have to agree with your next to last paragraph, 100%. If it can't be done like that, scrap the whole thing. I am starting to lean toward the Republicans on this mishandled mess.
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DavidShort
11:04 AM on 01/14/2010
The ability to finance this bill is not the final question. We are still working on the question of the ability of the voters to enslave the medical community. How about we stick with that one?
10:11 AM on 01/14/2010
This tax on middle-class health care plans plus poorly funded mandates will simply pit the middle class against the poorer folks. Doesn't look like there is going to be a happy ending here.

Unfortunately, it now also looks as though the Democrats are as in to ensuring that the wealth of the nation mostly flows up to the casino economy gambling class as the Republicans.
08:51 PM on 01/13/2010
Sparky, the reason we must adopt the VAT has everything to do with balance of trade. It is the ONLY form of taxation deemed fair by the WTO as they judge world trade agreements. This means that US companies are disadvantaged and foreign imports are advantaged by between 20%-40%. This is huge!!! It's one of the biggest reasons that companies are moving their businesses abroad.

The reason for this is that VAT is rebated to the manufacturer for goods exported. This doesn't begin to take into account additional balance of trade skewing from currency manipulation and direct strategic industry subsidies.

If you want to get more details, read Pat Choate's "Saving Capitalism".

We're screwed and nobody is doing anything meaningful to address this, at least that I'm aware of. If there were, I'd do everything I could to support them.
06:11 PM on 01/13/2010
Gosh! What a great time for the dims to be asking THIS question? They didn't WANT to answer it when the conservs were asking it!
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Coinyer101
King of Doobiestan
03:17 PM on 01/13/2010
Let the corporadems who are passing this steaming pile pay for it. They ain't gettin' a dime from me.....,
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03:31 PM on 01/13/2010
they will when you are fined for not playing along
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01:43 AM on 01/14/2010
The fine is cheaper than healthcare
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03:16 PM on 01/13/2010
For Americans that are screaming for Universal healthcare because if Europe can do it, why can't we? I have an answer for you....TAXES...specifically VAT taxes that are paid by everyone regardless of income.

Are you ready to pay up to a 25% tax on everything you buy? NO, because you will claim its unfair to the poor. Well if you want socialized medicine the way they do it in Europe and specifically the Nordic countries, then you have to pay for it.

For example....

-In Denmark, VAT is generally applied at one rate, and with few exceptions is not split into two or more rates as in other countries (e.g. Germany), where reduced rates apply to essential goods such as e.g., foodstuffs. The current standard rate of VAT in Denmark is 25%. That makes Denmark one of the countries with the highest value added tax, alongside Norway and Sweden.

-The current maximum rate in operation in the EU is 25%, though member states are free to set higher rates.
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vippy
Carpe Diem!
03:46 PM on 01/13/2010
You can't compare Europe with the USA because the average person in Europe makes more money. They get a real salary, while ours get hourly wages. They get real benefits while we can only dream about such. I know of people who went back to Germany because they just could not make it here, working two jobs and never get ahead. I would not mind 50% taxes including healthcare if the rest of my paycheck allows me to live comfortably.
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04:08 PM on 01/13/2010
you are out of your mind...well, since you provide no details in your reply...I will: all this data can be found here: http://livingingreece.gr/2008/04/04/minimum-monthly-salaries-of-eu-countries/

Denmark has the highest average monthly salary (now this includes benefits for FT employees) at 1,850 Euros a month (thats around 22K Euros a year or roughly 30K a year USD). But you have to remember you are also paying close 25% VAT tax on most everything you buy.

The rest of the European countries go downhill from there....

Oh yeah and Germany has the 7th highest wages at 1277 Euros a month.
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vippy
Carpe Diem!
07:17 PM on 01/13/2010
Europe does not have the Defense Budget the USA has. The USA Defense Budget is more than the rest of the world combined and that is why we can't afford anything for the people. You have to ask yourself why our soldiers fight, when they are not protecting my lifestyle but the lifestyle of the rich. Once they get hurt or get out, there is nothing waiting for them. So many end up on the street.
Someone must have told you that lowering taxes for the rich and paying lower wages will expand the economy when, in fact, it does the reverse. It simply frees up more cash to play fast and loose in this so-called financial innovation we are only too familiar with. Remember Michael Milken's Junk Bonds years ago. If our taxes go just a bit lower and those financial innovators can work their magic just one more time, then things will be alright. If you believe that, you are playing to lose as well.
09:31 AM on 01/14/2010
"Once they get hurt or get out, there is nothing waiting for them." Nothing but freedom and the right to pursue happiness.
12:03 PM on 01/14/2010
"Every gun that is made, every warship launched, every rocket fired signifies, in the final sense, a theft from those who hunger and are not fed, those who are cold and are not clothed. This world in arms is not spending money alone. It is spending the sweat of its laborers, the genius of its scientists, the hopes of its children. "

Dwight Eisenhower
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vippy
Carpe Diem!
02:22 PM on 01/13/2010
Tax the rich like they were pre-Carter and Reagan! Make more money, pay more taxes should be obvious. If some people cannot afford the healthcare and they get punished by paying a penalty that kind of defeats the purpose eh? Then take our congress and make them take this healthcare reform
bill instead the one we were promised. See how they like it now LOL.
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03:04 PM on 01/13/2010
why is it that if you are successful you should be penalized more? The rich already pay over 80% of the total taxes paid in this country. Nothing is free (including healthcare) so the burden must be carried by all....not the small percentage of people that are already paying the majority of the taxes.
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GiveUsFree
Teapublicans are destroying America.
03:43 PM on 01/13/2010
Maybe the rich pay such a larger portion of the taxes, because the wealth is highly concentrated and the rich control a larger portion of the wealth in this country. No one else has the ability to pay taxes.
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vippy
Carpe Diem!
03:43 PM on 01/13/2010
You are so wrong. Per IRS Website of 2003 I made a note where it stated that the rich paid 1/5 of the total taxes collected. Think about it, they re-invest, or park their money off-shore in the many, many locations around the world. If they are successful, and most are stepping on the backs of the little people (we see enough headlines on that subject)
they are making more money, ergo pay more taxes. The US has 269 billionaires and the next country to us has 26, you see the fallacy here? Why should the little person pay 28% and the rich 15% as Warren Buffett had pointed out. I am for everyone paying their fair share, currently it is not happening.
02:06 PM on 01/13/2010
Robert,
I think this issue is the one that I hope House Democrats will rally around to force better provisions through reconciliation - including a PUBLIC HEALTH OPTION!

Anyone who says that you need 60 votes in the Senate to pass that is lying. Period. We need our House Democrats to show they have the spines of a Lieberman and stare down the President.