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Robert Reich

Robert Reich

Posted: December 16, 2010 12:34 PM

The New Tax Deal: Reaganomics Redux

What's Your Reaction:

More than thirty years ago, Ronald Reagan came to Washington intent on reducing taxes on the wealthy and shrinking every aspect of government except defense.

The new tax deal embodies the essence of Reaganomics.

It will not stimulate the economy.

A disproportionate share of the $858 billion deal will go to people in the top 1 percent who spend only a fraction of what they earn and save the rest. Their savings are sent around the world to wherever they will earn the highest return.

The only practical effect of adding $858 billion to the deficit will be to put more pressure on Democrats to reduce non-defense spending of all sorts, including Social Security and Medicare, as well as education and infrastructure.

It is nothing short of Ronald Reagan's (and David Stockman's) notorious "starve the beast" strategy.

In 2012, an election year, when congressional Democrats have less power than they do now, the pressure to extend the Bush tax cuts further will be overwhelming.

Worse yet, the deal adds to the underlying structural problem that caused the Great Recession in the first place.

Since Ronald Reagan was president, median hourly wages have barely budged, and America's vast working and middle classes have taken home a steadily smaller share of the nation's income (adjusted for inflation). The typical male worker today is earning less than the typical male worker thirty years ago.

Yet the richest 1 percent of Americans is now taking home a larger percentage of the nation's income than at any time since 1928. And we recall what happened in 1929.

Unless the vast majority of Americans has enough purchasing power to keep the economy going without going ever more deeply into debt, the economy will eventually go over a cliff.

That's what happened. By the late 1990s the middle and working classes could keep spending -- and thereby keep the economy moving -- only by adding debt. This strategy ended when the housing bubble burst in 2007.

Without their spending, there can be no buoyant recovery.

Yes, the pending tax bill will give America's middle and working classes slightly more cash next year. But only for one year. They won't spend it. They'll use it to help pay down their debts.

Will lower taxes on the rich spur them to create more jobs? Not a chance. Since 1980, Reagan's supply-siders have said lower taxes on the rich will trickle down to everyone else. Nothing could be further from the truth.

Look at history.

During the almost three decade spanning 1951 to 1980, when the top rate was between 70 and 92 percent, the average annual growth in the American economy was 3.7 percent.

Between 1983 and the start of the Great Recession, when the top rate ranged between 35 percent and 39 percent, average growth was 3 percent.

Supply-siders are also fond of claiming that Ronald Reagan's 1981 tax cuts caused the 1980s economic boom. There is no evidence to support this claim. In fact, that boom followed Regan's 1982 tax increase. The 1990s boom likewise was not the result of a tax cut; most of it followed Bill Clinton's 1993 tax increase.

Nor did George W. Bush's tax cuts trickle down. Between 2002 and 2007 the median wage actually dropped. And Bush's record of job creation was pathetic relative to Bill Clinton's, when taxes were higher. Under Clinton, America added 22 million net new jobs. Under Bush, barely 8 million.

So why are Democrats voting for Reaganomics?

They say they have no choice -- either vote for this or watch taxes rise on everyone starting January 1.

That Democrats have allowed themselves to get into this fix is a testament to either their timidity, obtuseness, or dependence on the campaign contributions of those at the top.

Robert Reich is the author of Aftershock: The Next Economy and America's Future, now in bookstores. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org.

 
 
 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
muck-raker
give me liberty or give me death
09:00 AM on 12/20/2010
excerpt: Conservatives frequently contend that government is irresponsible and should run more like a business. But what sort of business undermines its base of revenue without demanding something concrete in return? You wouldn't go to a mechanic and agree to shell out hundreds of dollars even if the shop utterly fails to diagnose and fix your car. Yet tax cuts for the wealthy and tax loopholes for corporations are doing just that. They are handouts for the powerful given on blind faith.

The evidence that these handouts actually result in decent jobs for American workers is distressingly thin.

To understand the nature of unemployment in our country today, we must appreciate that a huge gulf has formed between traditional measures of business success and the actual well-being of working families. Traditionally, increased productivity was supposed to translate into increased wages for workers. But, as the Economic Policy Institute has documented, "from 2002 to 2007, productivity rose 11 percent but the hourly wage for high school and college educated workers fell." The only ones benefiting are those at the top. Timothy Noah recently reported in his well-regarded series on inequality at Slate that, "From 1980 to 2005, more than 80 percent of total increase in Americans' income went to the top 1 percent."

balance of article:
http://www.commondreams.org/view/2010/12/14-8
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
PerryLogan
We don't want your guns; we just want your women.
01:10 PM on 12/19/2010
What Reagan and the Right in America miss is that goverment is the only thing that can protect us from the corporations. If you limit the size and power of government, you will be eaten alive by the multinational corporations. This is our situation.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
LeftRight
TANSTAAFL
05:35 PM on 12/19/2010
Yup! Of course to THEM that'd be a GOOD thing since they can't seem to realize that it's corporations who put us into the situation we're in now!
02:10 PM on 12/18/2010
When you run Government like a Business you create a Viper Government always waiting to strike the Citizens it was created to protect.

The con-game is starving the beast to kill Social Security and the Safety Nets. Americans need so badly.
cuchulain
Occupy the Tao
12:27 PM on 12/18/2010
The right keeps pushing the idea that taxes are the be all and end all of human behavior. They have no real proof of this. But they keep peddling it.

So, let's really put it to the test. Carrot and Stick.

First, our objective, our goal as a nation is NOT to make individuals rich. Our objective as a nation is to make sure the entire population is healthy, well-educated, safe and prosperous. If the actions of individual fat cats hurt that overall health and prosperity, we need to make public policy that counteracts that. Aggressively.

So. We tax the rich at high rates, in order to make it far more attractive to keep more money in their businesses, in production, in workers. We tax all paper transactions above a certain amount to make it far less attractive to play casino capitalism. We tax outsourcing. We take the money and spend it on public works. We directly employ every worker who wants to work. The private sector won't. We as a nation will.

Next:

Carrot:

If a company does the following, it is NOT taxed:

1. Keeps the executive pay to rank and file pay at 25 to 1 or lower
2. Keeps the workforce at 95% American or better.

No tax.

Spend on social services, infrastructure, Single Payer, Green Tech, education and the environment. Hire workers directly who want to work. Use the tax code to encourage good paying jobs here, and no more hoarding. End privatization.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
HarrietM
It is never too late to start from where you are.
08:50 PM on 12/18/2010
I like this. Have you sent this plan to your congresspeople. Did they have a response that was better than the form letter I always get?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
osofar
America once was exceptional, and could be again,
08:59 AM on 12/18/2010
When you are terribly thirsty, trickle down water will not quench your thirst.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
osofar
America once was exceptional, and could be again,
08:56 AM on 12/18/2010
There are only a few people who consistantly tell the truth to the world: Robert Reich, Bernie Sanders, Kuchinich, and Michael Moore. You would all be on my dream cabinet of a real people's President.
12:48 AM on 12/18/2010
Please note that the correct response to Professor Reich's correct commentary is NOT to give up. There are things that can be done about this state of affairs, simple things, that just require some public outcry. The one I advocate is the Shared Economic Growth proposal (http://www.sharedeconomicgrowth.org ) that would pull high value operations into America, give market power back to American workers, make the tax code more fair by shifting some of the burden from middle-class savers to wealthy speculators (although even calling the hedge fund types "speculators" is unduly generous to them;. like the WC Fields response when asked if poker is a game of chance - "not the way I play it, no" - they do not need to speculate, because they rig the game, as they did with Irish bank bonds), and effectively force corporations to spit out their huge piles of cash. Shared Growth is a simple 3 page bill that nobody in the government will talk about, because it is an indisputably good and economically efficient idea that takes wealth and power from the parasites and gives it to working people.Make your voices heard, folks. Push for simple, concrete proposals for change, and keep pushing until you get a sensisble response.
12:31 AM on 12/18/2010
What's astounding and enraging is that Reich's common sense perspective, backed by recent history, is available to anyone who is willing to shift a set of eyes slightly way from dead center. It must be what everyone already knows because it's uncommonly clear. Obama has to know the certain truth about wealth redistribution through higher taxes on the wealthy. It's not rocket science.

Instead, what Obama is doing is what's really bad for the country, his cheerleaders notwithstanding. He acts as if he doesn't know it. He must know it.

There are reasons that Obama is pursuing this approach to managing the national money flow, but those reasons are not what he discusses. Obama's agenda is not visible right now. What we're seeing is kabuki theatre. Obama's mind-meld with the GOP leadership is staged, with a specific outcome as part of the design, and with the full co-operation of the GOP.

We'll have to watch what Obama decides, how he acts, for us to determine what outcome will be.
08:10 PM on 12/17/2010
Clearly waiting until a month before taxes were set to go up on everyone was poor planning. That clearly would have made matters worse. Now they should be working on rewriting the tax code. Even the elected officials in charge of it can't understand it. 16,000 pages that costs hundreds of millions of dollars and thousands of wasted hours each year. As a country we can't continue the waste...whatever the tax rates are.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gcorleone
09:48 PM on 12/17/2010
It's estimated that each year, $500 Billion is spent to comply and submit taxes.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gcorleone
03:03 PM on 12/17/2010
Government makes more off of petroleum than the all american oil companies combined. They own the mineral rights, they sell the oil on the nymex exchange, receive 15% off all profitable transactions, they get taxes through the sales of gas, oil, plastics, all other products, all taxes levied on properties owned by the refineries, and companies use, all income taxes from the employees involved all throughout the operations involved.
cuchulain
Occupy the Tao
03:38 PM on 12/17/2010
More nonsense from you. Enough with the disinformation.

In another post you said corporations pay trillions in taxes. Not so. The Federal government took in a total of 2.3 trillion last year, and corporations accounted for roughly 7% of that.

Our tax code is riddled with so many deductions, loopholes, writeoffs and outright subsidies, MOST corporations pay no tax at all. Exxon paid nothing last year, for example, on tens of billions in profit.

Why do you keep shilling for corporate America? Getting paid to do so?
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gcorleone
03:57 PM on 12/17/2010
So reality is nonsense in your world huh?

Corporations have paid in Trillions. It may be over several years, at about $500 Billion a year, but they've paid in Trillions.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gcorleone
03:59 PM on 12/17/2010
ANd BTW, the cost of corporate taxation is passed on to the consumer. That's you, right?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
LeftRight
TANSTAAFL
05:38 PM on 12/19/2010
Wow, what a completely bogus non-factual post that couldn't be LESS related to the truth if you'd TRIED! Fox must be VERY proud of you, to have learned the lies...er I mean TALKING POINTS so well!
cuchulain
Occupy the Tao
12:10 PM on 12/17/2010
We have got to fight the false narrative about the supposed effectiveness of tax cuts.

Do a review of the history. Have we ever cut spending, dollar for dollar, with those tax cuts?

No.

Never.

So it is physically, mathematically, logically and rationally impossible to credit those tax cuts with anything, until we control for deficit spending.

Until or unless the government is willing to cut spending in equal measure with those tax cuts, there is no way to attribute anything specifically to tax cuts. You have other variables to contend with, and deficit spending is a huge variable.

It is, in fact, the elephant in the room. The proverbial 800 pound gorilla.

In effect, when you cut taxes and borrow the money to offset the loss in revenues, you are doubling the money flow for that amount. You SHOULD be able to stimulate the economy in that case. At a minimum. It's like shooting steroids into the economy.

However, if it's done in a no-strings-attached manner, it won't be as effective as targeted tax cuts and targeted deficit spending would be.

Either way, the bottom line is that it has always been absurd to credit tax cuts with ANYTHING while we borrow trillions to make up for the lost revenues. That is simply ignoring THE key variable in the mix.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
LeftRight
TANSTAAFL
01:27 PM on 12/17/2010
Wow.... I think I love you!! TOTALLY fanned!
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gcorleone
01:53 PM on 12/17/2010
It's easy to spend other peoples money to encourage people to vote for you.
cuchulain
Occupy the Tao
02:05 PM on 12/17/2010
What do you think a business owner does? He or she spends "other people's money". He or she makes money by paying workers less than they produce and charging more for products and services than they cost to produce.

He or she collects consumer dollars and redistributes them upward to themselves. Business owners spend "other people's money" on THEMSELVES.

When government builds a school, a library, a museum, roads, bridges, etc. etc. it is spending "other people's money" for the good of everyone.

The private sector business owner doesn't redistribute money for the common good. He or she redistributes money for their own good.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
LeftRight
TANSTAAFL
05:40 PM on 12/19/2010
What's that got to do with anything. We're not trying to get people to vote for us, we're trying to look out for as many Americans as we possibly can!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Klad InVermont
12:00 PM on 12/17/2010
It's the plutocrats VS the rest of us.
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peterg76
Freelance medical transcriptionist
11:56 AM on 12/17/2010
'Trickle-down' economics is a *scam*, not an economic theory. Calling it an economic theory that failed is giving it far too much credit.
11:44 AM on 12/17/2010
Trickle down starts at the corporate level, less tax for them means more investment, more investment means either they have to hire somebody within the co. or pay an entrepreneur on the outside. Entrepreneurs then develop services that meet the corporate needs. Money is exchanged incomes are created. Oh, no, the magic word s" incomes are created". New companies aren't interested in minimum wage brains they want the people that want to make 50-100-150K and are willing to work 14hrs a day. This occurs in the BRIC world now, BRIC learned it from USA apparently we forgot.
cuchulain
Occupy the Tao
12:03 PM on 12/17/2010
Effective tax rates have never been lower. The GAO said most corporations paid zero tax over the course of the last decade.

They STILL fired eight million workers.

The Fed bailed them out to the tune of 3.3 trillion recently, and then another 600 billion.

They're STILL not hiring.

The rich and corporate America have received decades of tax cuts, and the economy has gotten worse for the rank and file. Productivity has gone up dramatically per worker, but our wages have fallen.

Stop the propaganda. Trickle down doesn't work. The rich pocket the difference in tax breaks, hoard it, or invest it overseas, chasing after cheap labor or derivatives.

NOT production.

Our history shows a stronger economy when tax rates are much higher.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
gcorleone
12:16 PM on 12/17/2010
Tax them more. See how that works.

It's the government, the feds alone suck Billions out of the economy each and every day.
States do too, but instead of $10 Billion, they may take $3 Billion. Every day.

How's that been working out? You need more?
12:27 PM on 12/17/2010
Corporate tax rates in the US are among the highest in the world. True they offshore their profits but its within the tax code to do so. When they elect to bring that money back into the USA they will then have to spend it or be taxed even higher. Why would you bring it back? Corporation's are sitting on 1.3 trillion dollars. They are not hiring. Why should they? There is no incentive ti hire in the US. So we must create incentive. Less tax is just one incentive, less regulation is another incentive, less EPA regulation another incentive, manufacturing incentives that provide a tax base another. You can go on and on. The one thing we have that is not an incentive is Government telling the private sector how to behave. That is where we are now.Stalemate. Next election they get their mandate. Who blinks first.
WHo sells the S$P 500 everyday. Over time trickle down worked perfectly and I sure to the amazement of everyone it was Clinton who recognized first.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
LeftRight
TANSTAAFL
12:46 PM on 12/17/2010
Except for the fact that you're backwards, you'd have a point.

The fact of the matter is that high PERSONAL tax rates cause the owners to keep money in the company, which then must invest and pay higher wages to avoid high CORPORATE taxes. THIS is what leads to a strong middle class and jobs!
01:20 PM on 12/17/2010
Sorry but they buy a machine that replaces even more humans
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Nomccain
10:43 AM on 12/17/2010
It's amazing that people fail to either understand or accept the FACT that Republican economic policies are no good for this country OR for the MIDDLE CLASS. They proved that with the Bush/Cheney regime as well as with the Reagan years. It's also amazing with the facts and statistics available to the public today (even with the barrage of Republican and right wing lies) are not getting to the electorate so they can make informed decisions when an election rolls around. The Democrats are to blame for not educating the public through FORCEFUL speeches and informational commercials so that the public can have a chance to understand what the party of the wealthy and greedy are really up to. I fear for our country because of this.