iPhone app iPad app Android phone app Android tablet app More

Featuring fresh takes and real-time analysis from HuffPost's signature lineup of contributors
Robert Reich

GET UPDATES FROM Robert Reich

The Stalled Recovery, Smoke and Mirrors and the Carnage on the Street

Posted: 06/11/11 02:11 PM ET

The Dow ended the week below 12,000 for the first time since March. This is the sixth straight week of downs for the Dow. It's almost as bad over at the Nasdaq. All the gains racked up in 2011 have now been erased.

What's going on?

The real economy is catching up with the financial economy, as it always does eventually. Wall Street is built on smoke and mirrors, while the real economy is based on jobs and wages. Smoke and mirrors can only take you so far -- as we learned so painfully three years ago.

Jobs and wages stink, if you haven't noticed. They've been bad for months, even before this week's data made it fairly clear the recovery has stalled.

Stock prices had been rising nonetheless. That was partly because big corporations were enjoying big sales and fat profits from their foreign operations. But foreign sales are slowing. Chalk that up to the European debt crisis, Europe's insane austerity measures, Japan's tragedy and China's concerns about inflation.

Meanwhile, other companies have been busy restocking inventories in the hope American consumers will be in a mood to buy. But that hope is coming to an end, as the reality dawns that American consumers can't and won't buy very much, given their shrinking home values, high debts and job worries.

Stock prices were also rising because of Wall Street's certitude that it can make loads of money from the gullibility of millions of small investors. Here's where the smoke and mirrors come in.

Over the past year, the Street lured small investors back into the market on the smoky promises that the worst is over and stock prices are bound to rise. The lure became a self-fulfilling prophesy. As investors reentered the market, they bid up stock prices. Hence, the mirror.

Insiders on the Street are always the first to bail when they sense they've been overselling, as they started to do a few weeks ago. This gives them a second opportunity to make money off small investors -- by selling short.

The nation's second-largest financial redistribution in history (the largest, on a percentage basis, occurred in 1929) came in 2007 and 2008 -- from small investors and their pension funds to the Street's savvy traders who shorted them. Now it's been repeated, although on a smaller scale.

And Washington? Completely clueless. Our representatives in the nation's capital continue to obsess about future budget deficits and games of chicken over raising the debt ceiling -- neither of which has anything at all to do with the stalled recovery and the carnage on the Street.

Otherwise, the airwaves are filled with Weiner's tweets, Gingrich's implosion and Palin's emails. When times are tough, we look for entertainment.

Robert Reich is the author of Aftershock: The Next Economy and America's Future, now in bookstores. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org.

 
 
 

Follow Robert Reich on Twitter: www.twitter.com/RBReich

The Dow ended the week below 12,000 for the first time since March. This is the sixth straight week of downs for the Dow. It's almost as bad over at the Nasdaq. All the gains racked up in 2011 have no...
The Dow ended the week below 12,000 for the first time since March. This is the sixth straight week of downs for the Dow. It's almost as bad over at the Nasdaq. All the gains racked up in 2011 have no...
 
 
  • Comments
  • 301
  • Pending Comments
  • 0
  • View FAQ
Comments are closed for this entry
View All
Favorites
Recency  | 
Popularity
Page: 1 2 3 4 5  Next ›  Last »  (7 total)
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
joe kim
10:43 AM on 06/14/2011
Always thought Professor Reich was an intelligent man. I don't always agree with his ideas, but they are usually well thought out.

I don't believe that the stock market has been pushed up and now down by professional traders, but instead by the fed. The fed has been trying to create a wealth effect via the stock market similar to the one we saw at the end of Bush 1's term. Mr. Bernanke stated that he was "targeting" the stock market to go higher. This idea of the wealth effect and people spending that money has not worked this time around mostly because people pulled their money out at the bottom because people like Cramer were on television screaming to get out near the bottom.

I don't know a single person that has added to their portfolios in a major way. Sure they may have added to their 401k's and IRAs, but not their lump sum huge investment. Lucky for them.

No one wants to invest in a stock market that is manipulated. Everyone knows the fed is behind the stock market move higher. No one wants to be holding the bag when the fed and the banks sell.
photo
kokobell616
No news is new news when old news is newsworthy.
06:48 PM on 06/13/2011
This country has given away any and all control over its own destiny. When the fallacy of free enterprise converts our only vestige of what was once a enviable nation into skeletons of folly. The controllers of wealth and power will move on. The battle now seems to be whom shall be invited to accompany them.
photo
LeftCoastEng
Obsessed with failed trade
12:20 PM on 06/13/2011
You make some good points, but yet again fail to mention the elephant in the room: failed trade policy. Bring good jobs back by reforming our failed trade policies. Come on Mr Reich, at least discuss it!
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
DocJoseph
A bleeding heart will heal; a cold heart will not
11:53 AM on 06/13/2011
I was under the impression that personal debt has been declining. I, for one, have no personal debt other than my mortgage, and my savings could pay that off it I so choose.

Aren't credit card balances going down? Savings up - even slightly? The borrowing binge of the last 20 years has certainly ended, and I can't see people running up credit card debt now except out of necessity (of which I'm sure there is plenty). The trend, however, if for debt to decrease as we become fearful of the future.

That means, in the short run, less spending, living within our means. Being frugal doesn't really spell the end of the economy, but rather a more judicious approach to spending that realistically assesses our ability to pay.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
plaidsportcoat
04:54 AM on 06/14/2011
on 8 bucks an hour people can't afford rent AND food
01:11 PM on 06/20/2011
New debt increases may not be as much as before, but given the amount of debt previously accumulated, unless people declared bankruptcy, they are still dealing with paying it off. It doesn't go away as quickly as you are surmising, especially credit card debt which is probably now as much or more in interest than the actual original charges were.

How happy for you that your savings are so large that you could pay off your mortgage! I would say that you are the exception rather than the rule. With stagnant salaries and new jobs at probably a fraction of what people were getting before, many are able to barely cover the basic costs of life: food, transportation, shelter, and the costs of shelter - utilities, phone, etc.

It's not that being frugal isn't a good thing, but the real issue is not so much "living within our means" as it is getting decent enough salaries in the first place in order to make it possible that we don't fall further behind. Falling behind, i.e. having a vast population who is trying to make do at less than current living wage levels, will be what ultimately "spells the end of the economy".
photo
Jack Daniels Esq
Hold the ice
04:37 AM on 06/13/2011
Lawyers & politicos dont create jobs - WH/DC is chock full of them - impeach them all
10:00 AM on 06/13/2011
True, but what they can do is to level the playing field and restore some fairness to the system.
photo
Jack Daniels Esq
Hold the ice
11:28 AM on 06/13/2011
Yup - thats worked out real good for all of us, so far ...
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
photo
OneTop
Uh, is that a beer hall?
12:09 AM on 06/13/2011
It's very likely that life for many will become much worse before the bottom is reached.

Not to be intentionally pessimistic, however, I see no evidence of any Political or ruling class effort to move the national conversation in a different direction.

Carrying on the way things are is encouraging disaster, it cannot be otherwise.

Should not everyone wary of all the trillions of cash sitting idle?

As the housing market is done and equities are down that cash is going to go somewhere for purposes of speculation and quick profits.

Oil, Food, commodities ..... ?
Butquestioning
Searching for truth
11:26 AM on 06/13/2011
Well said...as the political craziness continues to drive us deeper into the recession hole. Why can't we find politicians that have some understanding of basic economic principles or even historians that can look at the type of policies being proposed that have done damge to recoveries over the years.

F & F'd
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
journeyman steve
12:12 PM on 06/13/2011
In my humble opinion, the worst that all that cash can and will do is that it'll be the leverage to short-sell ALL of the economy. Once companies realize how much money they can make shorting themselves and each other, profiting while their net values "re-align" at the expense of our 401k's and small individual investors, the bigger crater will appear.

If anyone doesn't believe me, just think of that "short sell" scenario, and do the usual -- follow the money. It'll be great if you're in a position of insider knowledge or have available "leverage" of OPK's. And if you're not a protected ownership classholder, you'll be fubar'd. Yep, that's a realistic scenario that can play out. Much to the chagrin of citizens. Voters won't notice, they're being dumbed down every second, that's why I distinquish between a citizen and a voter. Not all people wake up equal.
05:59 PM on 06/13/2011
I believe you.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
conchop
logic ethics quality
11:45 PM on 06/12/2011
Very little logic as many act in an illogical fashion. The ethics of this entire financial situation are suspect. We have completely been mislead on the concept of "quality of life". Soon, there will be more stories about food prices.

I suspect we will all be learning more about sustainable living as we are living unsustainable lifestyles at the time. Sustainable living is one thing that scares Wall St. They prefer to see people enslaved to credit and careless, uninformed spending. Trying to sell their BS to anyone who is enlightened to real logic and ethics and who has a keen sense and appreciation for quality is a challenge for them.

As this American capitalism slowly winds down, we must exercise logic, ethics, and focus on quality. The next American Industrial Revolution is just beginning. Sustainable and Renewable POWER will be the core driver. It will involve government and many new social programs. Until the money flows in the paychecks, study how to fish. We can hardly rely on business leaders, TEA/GOP, or the international financial community at this time. They are not the Captains they once were.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
journeyman steve
12:23 PM on 06/13/2011
Just a couple of points to add and to ponder: 1) the "market", any market, is not logical, is in fact one driven by feelings not so much facts. The other thing about the misleading is the very very quiet news about the Uptick Rule -- There are facts about "Why" it was passed in 1934, the "Repeal" of it in 2007, and the "Effects" on the market players which Reich implies is still a rollercoaster disconnected from actual market/company health, but one where we can track the impressive increases of short-sale profits since 2007. Short-selling is benefiting those who would be happy with the decline of our economy -- code for ALL Rabid Republicans who announced in November 2008 that their NUMBER ONE goal was deseating Obama in 2012. Wow, racism isn't dead, it's been rebranded as Anti-Obamaism -- alive and well on Fox and in the GOP national agenda.
photo
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
conchop
logic ethics quality
03:16 PM on 06/13/2011
Thats just my point. Example: It would be more logical for one to do their banking with an ethical financial institution - The FI's that have recently been talked about are unethical and they are creating havoc of the average persons wealth by using Predatory strategies that are based on profiting for the FI. Their tactics do nothing to serve industry or their customers.

Take your business to a reputable, ethical company that has a total quality management system. Capital will respond.
11:38 PM on 06/12/2011
Once corporations started re-buying their stock and putting more money in their own pockets, then some paid economists told the a big lie: the recession is over. Their biggest indicator was the entity that caused the recession (depression for some) and how they were going to wiggle and lie their way into prosperity.

Wall Street will fail again and very soon. Blame the little people for not supporting the big greedy people.
photo
RPM9500
We all know you're out there, Red Rider
11:37 PM on 06/12/2011
Typo,
'There is no sheriff in town.'
;(
photo
RPM9500
We all know you're out there, Red Rider
11:36 PM on 06/12/2011
The problem with WS is that their in 'no sheriff in town.'
When the laws are not enforced, even the weak ones we have now, then there are no speed limits, etc.
11:03 PM on 06/12/2011
it's already over... you all better learn to live with alot less for ever...
photo
Si1ver1ock
Follow the Woz. Emmigrate to Australia.
11:00 PM on 06/12/2011
QE 2 put many billions of dollars of cheap money into the hands of the upper class. Some of that went into Treasuries some into Commodities and some into Stocks. Bidding on stocks and commodities drive the price up, money chasing treasuries drives the yield down

They can now pull their money out of the market, pay off their zero intrest loans and still make a considerable profit.
01:18 PM on 06/20/2011
Sorry, all I'm getting from "QE 2" is the ship - LOL! Could you elucidate?
10:32 PM on 06/12/2011
Yes, I am a business owner, and I am worried about the repeat of 2008, or even worse - total collapse, if the deficit ceiling is not raised. Please, read http://underzodiacclock.com/2011/06/11/the-enemies-in-our-midst
08:57 PM on 06/12/2011
Tens of millions of people with no jobs or jobs that don't pay enough to live on, millions joining the ranks of the homeless, millions of jobs being shipped over seas, wages frozen or falling, healthcare cost doubling every seven or eight years, billionaire heldgfund managers paying less of their wages in taxes than the average worker, a republican plan for recovery that seems to consist of putting all the unemployed, the old and the sick onto a big boat and setting it adrift; all while the rich are raking in tons of cash. Nothing to worry about folks, just capitalism doing what it does best.
photo
RPM9500
We all know you're out there, Red Rider
11:45 PM on 06/12/2011
Pure Capitolism does not share the wealth, it hoards it at the top.
Without any rules all but the very rich will become homeless eventually.
ff
08:51 AM on 06/13/2011
Our founders were men of merchant and statesmen. People of great courage and greater vision. Today who would possibly stand up and fight for Americans ? Goldman Sachs ? Bank of America ? KBR ? Haliburton ? Diebold ? Comcast ? Boeing ?

I dare say we're on our own again. Our new lords have bought and paid for the white house, the congress and the senate and some of the Supreme Court Justices. They are hawking them out like pimps to the higest bidder.

We're just a tide of one cell organisms who's only interest is Dancing with The Stars and cell phones.

The French had it right the first time. The enemy of the U.S. is not just Afghanistan it's here in our own land in our own board rooms, in our own churches, living amoung us, eating at fine restaraunts, sitting at coveted elite seats of baseball and basketball venues. They get the best of everything and sell out their neighbors for a cut of the pie.

The enemy of the people isn't just Al Quieda.

We're at war with ourselves and the 2nd set of casualites are the middle class. Who will the third casualty be ? Your children and your future.

Viva La Liberte !!

Eventually we'll have nothing to lose by advanced organized civil disobedience marching through the streets against established institutions. If they can't help us and wont help us why would we care if they fail ? Too big to fail is
01:27 PM on 06/20/2011
Very eloquent - fanned!!!

"Advanced organized civil disobedience marching through the streets" is all fine and good, but everything will depend on whether we receive active support for our actions from the police and military as the Egyptians did (military only) or whether the enforcers of power continue to side with the wealthy elite. Everything will depend on how discredited those "new lords" become.
08:49 PM on 06/12/2011
So, it's not enough that government together with bankers brought America to its knees, they want to finish a job and take away whatever we have left....NO - the time has come to stand up my friends and demand justice - out taxes are going to Fannie Mae and "too big to fail" banks, while our fellow citizens are losing homes, pension funds, lives...
Today we are facing the greatest threat to our way of living, threat for our kids’ future. The banks, together with our government brought America to its knees and we have to stand up together and demand justice! There is one Register of Deeds in MA who is fighting MERS, BofA and the rest of them on his own - John O'Brien needs our help: http://tinyurl.com/3qsu87x

Attorney General Miller, you can tell us the truth, we're ready for it! Wall Street made sure that Americans can't be surprised any lonterg:http://tinyurl.com/3h5kfy9