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Robert Reich

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The Tinder-Box Society

Posted: 05/ 1/2012 3:27 pm

The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 13,338 Tuesday, its highest since December, 2007. The S&P 500 added 16 points. Wall Street will remember May 1 as a great day.

But most of these gains are going to the richest 10 percent of Americans who own 90 percent of the shares traded on Wall Street. And the lion's share of the gains are going to the wealthiest 1 percent.

Shares are up because corporate profits are up, and profits are up largely because companies have figured out how to do more with less.

Payrolls used to account for almost 70 percent of the typical company's costs. But one of the most striking legacies of the Great Recession has been the decline of full-time employment -- as companies have substituted software or outsourced jobs abroad (courtesy of the Internet, making outsourcing more efficient than ever), or shifted them to contract workers also linked via Internet and software.

That's why most of the gains from the productivity revolution are going to the owners of capital, while typical workers are either unemployed or underemployed, or else getting wages and benefits whose real value continues to drop. The portion of total income going to capital rather than labor is the highest since the 1920s.

Increasingly, the world belongs to those collecting capital gains.

They're the ones who demanded and got massive tax cuts in 2001 and 2003, on the false promise that the gains would "trickle down" to everyone else in the form of more jobs and better wages.

They're now advocating austerity economics, on the false basis that cuts in public spending -- including education, infrastructure, and safety nets -- will generate more "confidence" and "certainty" among lenders and investors, and also lead to more jobs and better wages.

None of this is sustainable, economically or socially.

It's not sustainable economically because it has resulted in chronically inadequate demand for goods and services. That's meant anemic growth punctuated by recessions. Without a larger share of the economic gains, the vast middle class doesn't have the purchasing power to buy the goods and services an ever-more productive economy can generate.

It's not sustainable socially because it has resulted in rising frustration over the inability of most people to get ahead.

Austerity economics in Europe is fanning the flames, as public budgets are slashed on the false crucible of fiscal responsibility. In the United States, an anemic recovery and plunging home prices are taking a toll: a large portion of the public believes the game is rigged, and no longer trusts that the major institutions of society -- big business, Wall Street, or government -- are on their side. In Europe and America, 30 to 50 percent of recent college graduates are unemployed or underemployed.

Inequality is also widening in China, where the scandal surrounding Bo Xilai and his family is serving as a public morality tale about great wealth and official corruption. Students in Chile are in revolt over soaring tuition and other perceived social injustices.

It's a combustible concoction wherever it occurs: increasing productivity, widening inequality, and rising unemployment create tinder-box societies.

Public anger and frustration can ignite in two very different ways. One is toward reforms that more broadly share the productivity gains.

The other is toward demagogues that turn people against one another.

Demagogues use fear and frustration to advance themselves and their own narrow political agendas -- scapegoating immigrants, foreigners, ethnic minorities, labor unions, government workers, the poor, the rich, and "enemies within" such as communists, terrorists, or other conspirators.

Be warned. The demagogues already are on the loose. In Europe, fringe parties on the right and left are gaining ground. In America, politics has turned especially caustic and polarized. (The right is even accusing people it doesn't like of being communists.) No one knows where China is heading, but reformers and ideologues are battling some of it out in public.

May 1 may be a good day for the Dow Jones Industrial Average, but the future depends on the job prospects and wages of the average worker.

Robert Reich, Chancellor's Professor of Public Policy at Berkeley and former
Secretary of Labor, is the author of Beyond Outrage. His widely-read blog can be found at www.robertreich.org.

 
 
 

Follow Robert Reich on Twitter: www.twitter.com/RBReich

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 13,338 Tuesday, its highest since December, 2007. The S&P 500 added 16 points. Wall Street will remember May 1 as a great day. But most of these gains are going t...
The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 13,338 Tuesday, its highest since December, 2007. The S&P 500 added 16 points. Wall Street will remember May 1 as a great day. But most of these gains are going t...
 
 
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PhantomShadow
Think what you want about me. You will anyway.
01:12 PM on 05/09/2012
Mr. Reich.

When are you going to talk to Obama and Biden about their engaging in class warfare against the rich?
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Steve001968
12:19 AM on 05/08/2012
"The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit 13,338 Tuesday, its highest since December, 2007. The S&P 500 added 16 points. Wall Street will remember May 1 as a great day.

But most of these gains are going to the richest 10 percent of Americans who own 90 percent of the shares traded on Wall Street. And the lion's share of the gains are going to the wealthiest 1 percent."

Why is this a surprise? The more money you have to invest, all things being equal, the more you stand to make. If Joe invests $1,000,000 into an investment with a 10% rate of return and Fred invests $10,000 into the same investment and realizes the same rate of return who is going to make more money, Plus you have Bill and Mack and Buddy who don't trust the stock market and invest exactly 0. How much can they expect to make? Lot's of people whine and complain about a game they won't even play.
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George Hanshaw
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
01:11 AM on 05/03/2012
And yet even Obama touts the shortages we have in all the STEM professions. We have good paying jobs that go begging - or have to be filled with people recruited from overseas.

But the reality is, there is no real use for the legions of self-actualizing ethnic and gender identity degrees we turn out in such abundance. If you major is such nonsense you make the CHOICE to have no meaningful job, and that means no meaningful pay.
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joni brit
The road to success is always under construction.
11:31 PM on 05/03/2012
thanks for enlightening me, didn't know our high unemployment rate had been caused by gender identity degrees, you learn something new every day on huffington.
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George Hanshaw
There are none so blind as those who will not see.
04:03 PM on 05/04/2012
i didn't say that. What I said was that we have a high rate of unemployed and underemployed new graduates while we have serious shortages of personnel in STEM professions. Those both are facts. Another fact is that dang few of those unemployed and underemployed people are in those STEM professions.
Now do you challenge any of those FACTS?
Because they are easy enough to prove. And yes, worthless majors - such as gender identity studies - absolutely DO cost us money to support as taxpayers and absolutely do encourage kids to go deeply in debt for a degree that is economically worthless and educationally questionable. To the extent that contributes to the unemployment and underemployment of college graduates and to the high cost of education and the burgeoning student loan debt, it ought to be addressed.

You Nihilistic sarcasm may give you personal joy, but it does nothing to address real problems. Grow up.
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rontheking
Legitimate ape here to deliver your gift from Dog.
12:27 AM on 05/03/2012
Yes. I don't really understand how the plutocracy thinks having everything will continue forever to benefit them in a consumer-driven economy. Their greed is bursting the seams of the social contract, destroying the infrastructure, and creating a slowly boiling populace of peons and near-peons. How much longer do they think people are going to put up with this...? At some point the lid is going to blow off of this thing....
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Steve001968
05:35 PM on 05/02/2012
Jobs are going because of over regulation and over taxation more than any other cause. On average it costs a business 75% above and beyond an employees net salary in payroll and other taxes. Employee takes home $50K. Total cost of that employee before benefits is going to be around $87K. Employees are too expensive and businesses need to cut labor to be profitable. Keep over taxing and over regulating businesses and your jobs will keep going. I have absolutely no sympathy whatsoever for anyone who supports the current levels of taxation and regulation of business when they lose their job and then their home, their car and whatever else. They got what they voted for.
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rontheking
Legitimate ape here to deliver your gift from Dog.
12:28 AM on 05/03/2012
What are you talking about? What regulations? What taxes are big businesses paying? What planet do you live on?
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Steve001968
11:33 AM on 05/04/2012
LOL Umm you can start with Medicare Tax, Unemployment tax (federal and state), FICA matching, property taxes, capital gains taxes, property taxes on business items like copiers, phones etc. Regulations like those imposed by the ADA that cost small business like mine $25K plus just to open a simple office. Regulations imposed by thousands of pages of convoluted tax code that even the IRS does not understand that costs small business like mine $10K plus just for accountants. Those are the tip of the iceberg and the payroll taxes mentioned add up to exactly what I said in the previous post. You just obviously know NOTHING about business or you wouldn't even ask such a silly question. Then there are regulations like these that add up to billions:

http://www.newsmax.com/ErnestIstook/Obama-Regulations-Killing-Jobs/2011/09/02/id/409593

The list goes on and on and on.
05:56 PM on 05/04/2012
http://www.taxfoundation.org/taxdata/show/250.html. Maybe this will help you with your questions.
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rontheking
Legitimate ape here to deliver your gift from Dog.
12:23 AM on 05/10/2012
Wow...tried to help. I'm not really feeling the love. Newsmax! What a joke!
05:16 PM on 05/02/2012
A frequent rightwing myth is that those that object to increasing wealth at the top at an obscene level are engaging in class warfare, socialism or even communism.
Reminds me of the equally widespread rightwing myth that health care costs are escalating because of illigal immigrants and malpractice insurance.
Mexican immigrants are now returning to Mexico in GREATER numbers than their arrival rate and malpractice insurance is one half of one percent of doctors' incomes.
And then another of their myths are the nefariousness of Unions, which represent 7% of the current workforce vs. 30% a few decades ago.
So much for fairness, Democracy and Capitalism. They are obsolete.
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Steve001968
12:28 AM on 05/08/2012
The US is not a Democracy and it isn't the fault of the wealthy that you can't manage to compete. Perhaps if you spent less time whining and more time doing something productive you'd do better. The really absurd idea is the leftwing delusion that increasing taxes on the wealthy and giving the politicians more money to throw away on staying in office benefits the middle class in any way shape or form.
04:24 PM on 05/02/2012
So, kiddies, how did that whole Cleveland bridge bombing thing go for you? Ya know if you add some Occupoo to the bag with the explosives it makes a real mess. Great for advancing your agenda.
07:43 PM on 05/02/2012
Not sure how anarchists (right-wing-anti-government) equate with OWS...
11:28 PM on 05/03/2012
anarchists are leftwing and a big part of OWS.
03:51 PM on 05/02/2012
We have loaded our country with the highest corporate tax rate in the world and some of the highest, if not the highest, regulatory burdens. Is it any wonder that when those capital gains are invested they go elsewhere? The repeal of the Glass-Steigal bill has proven to be a huge mistake. In emulating the European Banking systems we brought their problems down on our heads. Every push we have made to make a more fair system in the last 20 years has resulted in a wider gap between the rich and the poor. The Presidents attempts will have the same result. The more the government makes rules, the easier it becomes to game the system. Lower the corporate tax rate and get rid of ALL corporate tax breaks. You will bring in more money to the system. People talk about how Bush deregulated, but that was untrue. He changed regulations and wrote more than any previous President, though Obama is likely to pass him. Lowering corporate tax rates while reducing regulation will lower the gap between rich and poor as labor become important to our system. If a company cannot be profitable with high labor costs it won't pay high wages. The other costs are regulation and taxes. Increased complexity increases the gap between rich and poor. Simplify the system.
03:00 PM on 05/02/2012
So , go play with matches and acheive the result you desire and everything will be all right Robert.
02:39 PM on 05/02/2012
Guess what, Mr Reich? Even if you redistribute all earnings, it still isn't sustainable, economically or socially. We are headed for collapse, and there's no substitute for collapse because the current system of socialist redistribution and government control of everything isn't sustainable, just like it wasn't sustainable in its more extreme version in the USSR. All must fall to ashes, and then rebuilding can occur. A lot of people will be hurt, but it is the fault of thinkers like you who have slowly replaced self-responsibility with dependency thinking, across several decades.
06:10 PM on 05/02/2012
Your so right. Even if we took every penny, all the homes, bank and stock accounts and made everyone live under a bridge, we would still have to borrow .38 cents on the dollar instaed of .42 cents on the dollar.
07:52 PM on 05/02/2012
Well then, the last century of middle class American exceptionalism was a total failure in your book, right? You prefer feudalism and corporate control of everything?
01:59 PM on 05/02/2012
So when did the US economy head south? Two reasons. Repeal of Glass-Steigal and approval of NAFTA.

The reapeal of Glass-Steigal allows investment banks to raid peoples savings accounts and gamble the money on their own bets. If they won, they get to keep the money. If they lose, they turn it over to the FDIC for payment.

Approving NAFTA allowed US corporations to pit the wages of American workers in a direct price war with low cost labor pools. Most Favored Trading Status for China made it even worse. US corporations even get tax breaks to offshore their plants and import back in duty free. American workers are told to lower their wages or their job ships overseas. A rigged game.
04:59 PM on 05/02/2012
Don't forget that early in Reagan's first term the Sherman Anti-Trust Act was either repealed or ignored, I am not sure which.
Nothing will improve the situation, though a few more perp walks, prosecutions and more oversight could help
Lobbyists and banks and Republicans will stand in the way however.
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Steve001968
05:40 PM on 05/02/2012
The simple fact is that American business is regulated and taxed to death and the cost of those regulations and that taxation is going to be felt by employees and consumers in that order. Keep over regulating and over taxing and the jobs will keep going. Either by increased efficiency or outsourcing.
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rontheking
Legitimate ape here to deliver your gift from Dog.
12:45 AM on 05/03/2012
You have it exactly backwards...the plutocrats are the ones who deregulated so they could rip us all off...conservatives never seem to get it....
01:25 PM on 05/02/2012
"The right is even accusing people it doesn't like of being communists."

No Robert. We on the right accuse people who obsess over economic class and wealth inequality and want to appropriate the legally-obtained private property of others in the name of "fairness" as communists. Isn't that what communists advocate?
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MyNameIsJames
What should a person say in their micro-bio
01:48 PM on 05/02/2012
What do you think that people are worried about in this nation - that they cannot make ends meet and that cannot retire. You don't have to be a communist to worry about that.

The Right has never done anything domestically nation that has been widely celebrated. There have been some Republicans who have done a few decent things but they were not seen as right-wing initiatives.

The Right is interesting because it tries to collapse its worldview into the Republican Party. For the past 15 years they have mainly succeeded but even in the Reagan Administration there were lots of things the RIGHT lost in policy debate

REMEMBER AMNESTY for undocumented workers? The Right hated it.

Name a policy that the Right has championed that was widely embraced and appreciated.
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MyNameIsJames
What should a person say in their micro-bio
01:53 PM on 05/02/2012
No communists believe that the state should own the means of production - no one is arguing that on this blog spot. The Right today --wouldn't make it out alive - if they had engaged with the populace of the World War 2 generation on economics. They went through the Great Depression and endured soup lines. There was talk about overthrowing the nation. The Right got snowed under because this generation refused to listen to their viewpoint because it was supplying them with food, clothing and shelter. Humans are always most concerned about the basics for survival. When the Right forgets that... they become irrelevant. Human beings are not on the planet Earth to serve a particular economic system. Don't forget that.
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Derek Ryter
01:25 PM on 05/02/2012
I must whole-heartedly agree, Dr. Reich. It would seem that in every society and nation state, power and wealth has gone through cycles, conentrating in one group, until a revolution resitributes it. France, Russia, there are many examples. What is scary is that it would appear that the current concentration of wealth has brought with it an almost impenetrable shell, called corporate America. Will there be a tipping point where the rich control so much wealth and power that the proletariate may not have any way to even things out.
12:22 PM on 05/02/2012
This has a little of the Luddite in it. Would we be better off harvesting the wheat by hand? We would have full employment but perhaps less wheat. If a company invests in productivity equipment then... true.... a worker can produce more. That also allows the company to pay more to the worker. Hence the skilled worker has more than the unskilled worker, which is unequal. But is the solution to take from the worker using the machine and give it to the one who can't operate it so that they are both equal?

I do agree that we seem to have entered an era of politics of resentment.
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Steve001968
12:05 PM on 05/02/2012
Here's a big reason why jobs haven't and probably won't come back: The real cost to pay a worker a modest net $40,000 salary, NOT including health insurance or any other benefits, only the salary itself and all payroll taxes comes in right at $71,000 for a single worker claiming 2 allowances. That's 31,000 in employer and employee taxes including federal and state unemployment, FICA and Medicare. So, yeah, you bet, with payroll expenses like that companies are doing more with less. If you want 'job security' you better hire yourself because that's the only way you are going to get it. And spare me the blather about the 1%. The 1% are not stopping anyone from investing in the stock market. It never ceases to amaze me how many people want nothing to do with investing and then whine endlessly when others who are willing to take the risks make the profits.