Which lesson will the president learn from the midterm election -- that of Clinton in 1996, or FDR in 1936? The choice will determine his strategy over the next two years. Hopefully, he'll find 1936 more relevant.
Obama shouldn't be fooled into thinking Bill Clinton was reelected in 1996 because he moved to the center. I was there. Clinton was reelected because by then the economy had come roaring back to life.
The 1996 election was about little else. Dick Morris, Clinton's pollster and chief political advisor (who effectively took over the White House policymaking apparatus shortly after Newt Gingrich and the Republicans took over Congress in 1995), instructed the president to say only "the economy's booming and you ain't seen anything yet."
President Obama won't have that luxury in 2012. In all likelihood, the economy will still be anemic. It's now growing at the rate of no more than 2 percent a year -- far too slow to bring down the jobless rate. Even now, sales are slowing. Business revenues are slowing. Home sales are down. Home prices are down. Foreclosures are increasing.
For the next two years Republicans will try to paint Obama as a big-government liberal out of touch with America, who's responsible for the continuing bad economy.
Obama won't be able to win this argument by moving to the center -- seeking to paint himself as a smaller-government moderate. This only confirms the Republican's views that the central issue is size of government, that it's been too large, and the economy can improve only if it's smaller.
On the Republican playing field, Republicans always win.
Obama's best hope of reelection will be to re-frame the debate, making the central issue the power of big businesses and Wall Street to gain economic advantage at the expense of the rest of us. This is the Democratic playing field, and it's more relevant today than at any time since the 1930s.
The top 1 percent of Americans, by income, is now taking home almost a quarter of all income, and accounting for almost 40 percent of all wealth. Meanwhile, large numbers of Americans are losing their homes because banks won't let them reorganize their mortgages under bankruptcy. And corporations continue to lay off (and not rehire) even larger numbers.
With Republicans controlling more of Congress, their pending votes against extended unemployment benefits, jobs bills, and work programs will more sharply reveal whose side they're on. Their attempt to extort extended tax cuts for the wealthy by threatening tax increases on the middle class will offer even more evidence. As will their refusal to disclose their sources of campaign funding.
The relevant political lesson isn't Bill Clinton in 1996. It's Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1936.
By the election of 1936 the Great Depression was entering its eighth year. Roosevelt had already been President for four of them. Yet he won the biggest electoral victory since the start of the two-party system in the 1850s. How?
FDR shifted the debate from what he failed to accomplish to the irresponsibility of his opponents. Again and again he let the public know whose side he was on, and whose side they were on. Republicans stood for "business and financial monopoly, speculation, and reckless banking," he said over and over.
And he made it clear they wanted to prevent him from helping ordinary Americans. "Never before have these forces been so united against one candidate as they stand today," he thundered. "They are unanimous in their hate for me -- and I welcome their hatred."
The 2012 economy won't be as bad as the 1936 economy, hopefully. But it won't be nearly as good as the 1996 economy. For a president running in 2012, 1936 is the more relevant.
Robert Reich is the author of Aftershock: The Next Economy and America's Future, now in bookstores. This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org.
So who will you let tell you that the president did not go fare enough?
The Democrats will continue to move to the right. They have lost a battle they never fought, and have been retreating for decades.
Truth is, "liberalisms" are deeply embedded in our collective psyche. The vote is not limited to the propertied. We of the working class won the right to a public education. How about women's liberation? Racism, while not over, is no longer taken for granted. A majority, particularly of the young, support GLBT equality.
It does take courage to push for change. Like Gandhi and King; their inclusiveness and perseverance was eventually effective. Proof good can win.
We must demonstrate alternatives to hatred, fear, and anger. Tactics the regressives do well. Surely we can do better. Instead, find ways to work together. Putting first that foundational American tradition of caring for the common good.
Say it loud: we are not afraid to LOVE! That's the future we envision.
When you play not to lose, you lose.
without it the Dems will be powerless against a slim majority of lock step Repubs sometime in the future.
"We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work."
Henry Morgenthau, Secretary of the Treasury under President Franklin D. Roosevelt and one of FDR's closest advisers. He added, "after eight years of this Administration we have just as much unemployment as when we started. . . And an enormous debt to boot!"
This is just one of the remarkable and eye-opening facts in a must-read book titled "New Deal or Raw Deal?" by Professor Burton W. Folsom, Jr.,
The American voters decided, irrationally, that the same powers who brought this nation to the brink of economic calamity can restore the economic health to this nation. Welcome back, derivatives, Freddie and Fannie, deregulation, bad foreign policy, and more piracy on Wall Street. Aye, WWIII with Iran, China, etc....welcome!!!The populist mantra of the GOP was a case of pure propoganda, and it succeeded. The DFL is full of weaklings. They allowed the GOP to rewrite the narrative. So now, the GOP is the party of "Robin Hood"?,...pleeeaaasee.
Yet, the American people deserve the regression, because you are so misinformed, under educated, and comfortable in your ignorance. Ironically, the real social-economic masters, the Federal Reserve Board, meets today, to pass another stimulus, or what Emperor Ben "Helicopter" Bernanke refers to as "quantitative easing". Basically, another $1 trillion will be disbursed to Wall Street...
America, I guess this is the best we can do, "bigotry, xenophobia, poverty, superstition, and corporatism."..
I don't have to ask what the German people were thinking when Hisler and the Nasi party seized power, the same thing the American voters were thinking when they handed the reigns of power over to a collection of wolves....
"The top 1 percent of Americans, by income, is now taking home almost a quarter of all income, and accounting for almost 40 percent of all wealth."
Things like this should be a mantra to the White House. People are not stupid. They just need some urging sometimes to see who's robbing them blind. The Republicans and their rich allies in Wall Street.