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Robert Reich

Robert Reich

Posted: June 4, 2010 10:17 AM

Why We're Falling Into a Double-Dip Recession

What's Your Reaction:

We're falling into a double-dip recession.

The Labor Department reports this morning that the private sector added a measly 41,000 net new jobs in May. But at least 100,000 new jobs are needed every month just to keep up with population growth.

In other words, the labor market continues to deteriorate.

The average length of unemployment continues to rise -- now up to 34.4 weeks (up from 33 weeks in April). That's another record.

More Americans are too discouraged to look for a job than last year at this time (1.1 million in May, an increase of 291,000 from a year earlier).

Of the small number of jobs created by the private sector in May, many came from temporary help services.

Which is one reason why the median wage continues to drop.

Why are we having such a hard time getting free of the Great Recession? Because consumers, who constitute 70 percent of the economy, don't have the dough. They can't any longer treat their homes as ATMs, as they did before the Great Recession.

Businesses won't rehire if there's not enough demand for their goods and services.

The only reason the economy isn't in a double-dip recession already is because of three temporary boosts: the federal stimulus (of which 75 percent has been spent), near-zero interest rates (which can't continue much longer without igniting speculative bubbles), and replacements (consumers have had to replace worn-out cars and appliances, and businesses had to replace worn-down inventories). Oh, and, yes, all those Census workers (who will be out on their ears in a month or so).

But all these boosts will end soon. Then we're in the dip.

Retail sales are already down.

So what's the answer? In the short term, more stimulus -- especially extended unemployment benefits and aid to state and local governments that are whacking schools and social services because they can't run deficits.

But the deficit crazies in the Senate, who can't seem to differentiate between short-term stimulus (necessary) and long-term debt (bad) last week shot it down.

In the longer term, we need a new New Deal that will bolster America's floundering middle class. Expand the Earned Income Tax Credit and extend it up through the middle class. Finance that extension through higher marginal income taxes on the wealthy, who have never had it so good.

This post originally appeared at RobertReich.org

 
 
 
 
 
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02:36 PM on 06/09/2010
Irrefutable facts for both Progressive and Conservatives:

1. All money that our Government spends comes from the private sector.
2. Annually the USA spends more money than it takes in as an unwritten modus operandi or M.O. Both political parties are guilty of it. Yet they exonerate that behavior by pointing to their opposition as cause, as if that provides the necessary dispensation for their complicit behavior. In media parlance it’s peddled to the unwashed masses matter-of-factly as a deficit.
3. Given our Government M.O., the deficit requires a loan for payment. Since each year we spend everything we take in and more, the deficits add to an ever growing DEBT. To which the media doesn’t assign enough attention.
4. When our country’s debt exceeds our ability to repay, we will “hit” the same “wall” as Greece and the European Union.
5. We MUST CHANGE the modus operandi if we are to manage the debt. It matters not who wins the Miller lite-esque debate over less spending/more taxes; we have got to make buying down our debt part of the budgetary process.

Mr. Reich is and educated fool who is recommending we throw water to a drowning man. We are on a forced march to third world poverty where the USA along all other “endless spenders” on government entitlements and military incursions will have to obey those who hold our debt, namely China. They will dictate the new world order. Learn to speak mandarin
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proffordisabilities
02:31 PM on 06/09/2010
As soon as Reagan got into office, he cut the taxes for the rich and wealthy hugely, money that came out of our National Income. By his third year in office he was facing the second worst depression in American history. Makes sense...less incoming, more outgoing for military affairs. Budget cuts in humanitarian expenses, such as Medicaid, Medicare, Social Security, Education, EPA, Food Stamps, purging disabled from the rolls of disability programs. Critics suggest his policies contributed to the stock market crash in 1987. During his administration, he raised the national debt from $700 billion to $3 trillion.

2009, and President Barack Obama inherited 2 wars, 3 trillion deficit, and unemployment rising like baking bread. The wealthy stashing their cash into offshore accounts to evade taxes. 8 months earlier, W says he is going to leave his 2 wars and the failing economy to the next president??? In those 8 months of non-response, unemployment and the economy CRASHED; he was just waiting to blame Obama.

Just open those offshore accounts, have an accounting firm review them for back taxes with compound interest, there's plenty of money to pay off the deficit, health care, universal pre-school, stop this nonsense of cutting disability for those with mental retardation or mental illness.

Give half of this country to you haves, half to the have nots; let the haves take care of themselves, let the have nots take care of themselves. In spite of the unjust original prosperity see who survives.
02:27 PM on 06/09/2010
This is hilarious coming from somebody who hasn't got the sense to realize that throwing tax money around to "create" jobs just doesn't work.
11:08 AM on 06/09/2010
It seems you will never understand the free market economy. Continued unemployment benefits discourage people from looking for work........I know, I've been there. It also steals money from those who are working by raising their taxes to pay for your plan.

Businesses will not rehire in an environment of uncertainty. And that is the enviroment that the current regime has established. (health care, cap & tax, stimulous, etc.).

Be assured there is a stong underlying demand for goods and services. However the public, has been robbed by the endless taxation and confiscation of wealth. The continuous micro management by politicians has severly damaged the ability of the free market economy to prosper.

Our nation grew to be the greatest nation in the world because we allowed citizens to be responsible for their own actions.

We are at a serious crossroads. If we follow your road, we are garenteed continued high unemployment, continued huge deficit spending, and a breakdown of those virtues in our society that have made America great.

If we follow the historical precedents laid out in periods of economic prosperity, we will see that the way you stimulate the economy is to give the people back their money.

Mr. Reich, to give you some credit for your above conclusion that we are going into a double dip recession, we will certainly do so if the regime follows your suggestions. Your desire to have everyone equal severly clouds your abilty to see the economic truths.

Paco
02:47 PM on 07/30/2010
I disagree 100% with your assertion that unemployment discourages people from working. The amount of money you get from unemployment is pathetic. I was unemployed last year for 9 months and I spent a solid 6 hours A DAY, sometimes, more trying to find another job and what I got from unemployment was terrible, it was barely more thank a third of what I make when I am working. I sent out hundreds of applications, and spent hours on the phone and sending emails to friends, relatives, former colleagues and such just to get leads. Unemployment is barely enough money to keep a roof over your head, food on your table, and the lights on. No one I know wants to live like that. People who are already not inclined to work may try to take advantage of unemployment but people that want to be productive, and I believe these people are in the majority, will not somehoe magically be made apathetic by getting unemployment. They might be discouraged because they never get called back, they never get interviews, they never get a job offer but I doubt they get discouraged by themodest unemployment compensation they get.
02:06 PM on 06/08/2010
It seems that Reich is a little bit confused, between this and his Salon column, about whether we are actually entering a double-dip recession: http://bit.ly/9ainvb
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stevendedalus3
03:29 PM on 06/07/2010
So what else is new? This cockamamie economic structure wherein it robs Peter to pay Paul—invest, consume, government debt to enhance Wall Street's profits, hysterical trading to insure volatility, layoffs, only to increase unemployment insurance—will never change. Pure labor has always been the handmaiden to capital: just ask gulf fishermen.
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07:30 PM on 06/07/2010
@stevendedalus3

" Pure labor has always been the handmaiden to capital... "

but if pure labour rejected this arrangement, wholesale - ?

then what?

the development of some sort of parallel system seems possible, and actually in the interest of those who are not only not advantaged by the current system, but are being destroyed by it

instead of fighting to change that which is petrified in its resistance by its own greed and inertia, why not start up a "start up" monetary system to run alongside (and eventually, one hopes, overtake) the ancien regime?

looking at the gulf, have we much, if anything, to lose by trying?
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stevendedalus3
11:07 PM on 06/07/2010
Well, I'm not suggesting "you have nothing to lose but your chains" so rise up. But our representatives had better start thinking more about the little guys and gals by legislating labor laws that restore some dignity and security to workers. Reagan killed unions---and yes, their own corrupt leaders---but that doesn't preclude a Labor Bill of Rights.
As for a start up parallel, it would be great, except the mindset of voting against one's own interest must be smashed.
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WriterGirl
02:42 PM on 06/07/2010
The United States needs desperately to become productive again. Corporations have been rewarded for exporting jobs, technology, and technological know-how for a cool couple of decades, while folks here at home largely "created wealth" by fabricating it on paper. It caused a bubble in IT, in homes, in the financial industry. The federal government can throw stimulus money into the economy out the whazoo, but if it creates a job, that job will be in Mexico, India, or China.

There's no return on investment when our government spends a trillion dollars to conduct endless wars. What we need is a combination of clean energy mandates (oil independence by 2020, anyone?), investment in education and technology, and sensible tax codes and regulatory practice.
12:43 PM on 06/07/2010
Yeah, that's the answer. Let's tax employers more and kill more jobs. Just the kind of advice we need from someone who has never had a private sector job in his life. This from the guy who eliminated over a million jobs for black teens through minimum wage increases. The middle class can't work if employers aren't hiring because they are taxed to death. If the government cared more about middle class employment than it did its own pocketbook, it would slash taxes to get people back to work, even if it meant killing social programs. Take a stance Washington: Jobs or Welfare?
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68Namvet
Sioux, French, German, Jew, American mutt
01:47 PM on 06/07/2010
Sorry - but, you are simply wrong. Businesses do not hire people based upon taxes - they hire the people they need to get the job done and only the people they need to get the job done - not more and not less. What they pay in taxes is irrelevant to their hiring - and only comes into play in their pricing. If their taxes are increased - the prIces of their goods or services go up - that's simple economics. Your philosophy of trickle down economics has been shown to not work - thats simple history.

Doing what works, works. Doing what doesn't work: doing it stronger, doing it longer, doing it harder, doing it better - STILL DOESN'T WORK!!!!
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WriterGirl
02:45 PM on 06/07/2010
Oh, please, redparrot. I own a profitable corporation and paid WAY less taxes than any payrolled employee last year. Corporations and the wealthy are a lot of things, but taxed to death they are NOT.
10:18 AM on 06/07/2010
We want to compete with China.Please put conversation on table to get minds to working,the hands and feet will follow.America is one of the easiest countries on the planet to be able to fix problems.
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John Hay
Obama Supporter
07:53 AM on 06/07/2010
THEY'RE calling it The New Silk Road: an ambitious plan by the Chinese to build two direct rail links to Europe, one from Beijing to London, the other from Beijing to Berlin, via a super high-speed train service travelling at almost half the cruising speed of a 747.

The Chinese Government, already in serious negotiations with 17 countries, also wants to build a third link through Burma, Thailand, Malaysia and Singapore. It claims the Herculean task could be completed in as little as a decade and has offered to cough up the money for the infrastructure – in return for cut-price raw materials, which it can transport cheaply back to its manufacturing centres.

In January, China opened what it billed as the fastest rail service in the world – a bullet train travelling at a top speed of 350km/h between the cities of Guangzhou and Wuhan, slicing the previous journey time from 10 hours to just three. Within three years China will have 800 bullet trains criss-crossing its territory, and it is already in the throes of building high-speed rail lines in Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Venezuela.

Wake UP American Politicians
John Hay
Australia
09:16 AM on 06/07/2010
John Hat very good post. We are not supporting new technologies enough in America. When a major project comes forward we are often raped up in the cost of unions making demands from the twilight zone. Today the unions know this will not work but when the economy begging to come back we will have the same problem.

The solution is to build factories and infrastructure where unions will not hole companies hostage. This already has happened in the auto industry and now other business is waking up.

We are in a new era today and unions are no longer-supported by the majority of people. They have cause business to close, re locate and go out of business.

I believe in workers safety big time and proper environment to work in but the unions had managed to take the breath away in competing in a global market.

China had good aggressive businessmen and very cheap labor if we are going to compete and have a robust economy we must learn lesson from the past. America has many great ideas and visionaries but we also have daunting obstacles called unions when we need to execute.
07:22 AM on 06/07/2010
We just need to get our good JOBS back!

They have all fled to China thanks to stores like Wal-Mart.
12:32 PM on 06/07/2010
Wal Mart wouldn't exist if you didn't shop there!
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Raymond Chuang
Trying to bring sanity back
01:19 AM on 06/07/2010
Mr. Reich, here's a vastly superior solution: MASSIVELY overhaul or even phase out the current national and state income tax system(s).

The current income tax system based on Title 26, the Internal Revenue Code, costs over US$300 BILLION per year in compliance costs thanks to its 70,000-plus page complexity, has driven over US$10 TRILLION in American-owned liquid assets out of the USA into foreign financial institutions beyond the reach of the IRS, and driven many millions of jobs out of the country. This, in my opinion, is sheer economic stupidity.

I'd like to a drastic overhaul of our income tax system (e.g., either much lower marginal tax rates but with very few deductions, Steve Forbes' flat tax proposal, or the even more radical (but very commonsense) "FairTax" national consumption tax replacement for the income tax). In short, we should _reward_ the process of _earning_ money, not punish the process. Such a change means little to no incentive to participate in the "underground economy" or funnel assets to financial institutions beyond US borders (care to explain all those "banks" at various Caribbean nations?), and that could mean saving Americans over US$300 billion per year in compliance costs and bringing back most of that over US$10 trillion in liquid assets--in effect, the world's largest "private bailout."
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Kye154
10:03 AM on 06/07/2010
I wholly agree with this idea. Our current income tax laws makes it a punishment for individual American taxpayers, not a reward. Here in America, we have very little to show for the taxes we pay into the federal and state coffers. The only thing that our taxes are used for is to bankroll or to bailout big businesses. On the otherhand, China has a 10% flat tax on everything, (even corporates must pay too), and they have more to show for it than what we do. That is why they are doing so much better than we are. At least, everyone in China seems to have a job there, no one is going hungry, they are rebuilding their cities, and they are much more solvent than the U.S., enough so as to be lending the U.S. money to keep the U.S., with it's massive debt, propped up. It is pretty shameful the way our entire national economic and tax systems are ran in this country.
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Turukano
In 20 years, everyone will say they voted Obama
05:52 PM on 06/08/2010
Flat taxes hurt the lower classes and raise taxes on the middle class. Nice try, NEXT.
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12:31 AM on 06/07/2010
Western economies are predicated on growth.
Eternal growth isn't possible.
What are the limits to growth?
Maybe we're there.
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12:17 PM on 06/07/2010
@chipw

you might find the information at this link interesting

http://www.ratical.org/many_worlds/cc/CC.html

demurrage currency does not require endless growth for prosperity

successful application, worgl, austria: scroll down on the site to "the 1930s in germany"

money, as a human construct, can be refashioned/redesigned with new assigned properties, the better to support and encourage homeostasis, stability and promotion of health and natural resources

more than one currency can operate at the same time in a single economy, so-called "comlementary currency" such as fureai kippu, in japan, or grain de sel in france

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fureai_kippu

we just don't put redesigning money seriously on the table becos there is this tendency to think that money, in its current form, is a "given" (came down on clay tablets or the like, lol)

the federal reserve only dates to 1913 but people treat it as if it had been born with the pyramids

odd, that, really
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10:05 PM on 06/09/2010
Thanks for your comment. I've bookmarked your links as you seem to be talking about something I don't know about.
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12:18 PM on 06/07/2010
*complementary currency
11:33 PM on 06/06/2010
Green energy is the only pro-business, pro-economy solution. Only oil companies, who spend more money lobbying your Congressperson, than on finding alternatives, are against building the infrastructure they *will* have to compete against. They've stilted the debate, and screwed us over in the process. The issue of banking is altogether another rip off of middle Americans.
11:05 PM on 06/06/2010
Frankly it amazes me just how many ways we as a group can come up with so many ways to say the same thing over and over and over. We blog and the crooks ltao. Oh, moderators.Please stop killing my posts. I can't believe how hypersensitive you seem to be. Get a grip. Remember power corrupts.You know the rest.