Soon, very soon, we'll finally lurch into the general election campaign, with Hillary Clinton receding, even if her dire warnings about Obama's electability linger. (Here's when I knew that even her camp understood it was over: When her flaks said that it wasn't that they thought he couldn't win but that she had a better chance -- the only way to convince the supers was to get them to believe he couldn't win and so had to be pushed aside regardless of blacks' reactions.)
So where to now? Not surprisingly, there are any number of predictions available:
Jack Farrell over at Robert Emmet looks at the anecdotal, every day evidence and says Obama with coat-tails.
My US News colleague Bonnie Erbe thinks it'll be President McCain because the Obama-Clinton civil war has broken the Democratic Party.
Michael Barone (another US News colleague -- what can I say, I'm a shameless promoter) looks at history and concludes that chances of a party holding the White House for three terms running are better than conventional wisdom might suggest.
Fivethirtyeight.com's tally currently (as of Tuesday at 5:42pm) has Obama winning slim (and Hillary winning big -- wonder when they take the Hillary column down?).
Kos figures Obama for 283 electoral votes.
Here we go...
therefore a landslide for Obama. Let's get it done!
Obama Over The Top: How New Voters Could Redraw The Electoral Map
http://progressillinois.com/2008/05/11/features/obama-over-the-top
Real Clear Politics: The New Electoral Map
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2008/05/the_new_electoral_map.html
Obama may crack 300 electoral votes
http://www.politicalbase.com/profile/Mark%20Nickolas/blog/&blogId=2292
Sounds lovely, doesn't it?