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Robert Walker

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What Will It Take to Slow the World's 'Unsustainable Path'?

Posted: 06/08/2012 2:03 pm

There are no barricades on the road to ruin, but it's equipped with lots of speed limits, warning signs and stoplights. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) tracks over 500 internationally agreed goals for curbing greenhouse gas emissions, reducing biodiversity loss, and numerous other environmental safeguards. In preparation for the upcoming Rio+20 Summit, UNEP announced this week that "significant progress" has been made on only four of the 90 most important of those environmental goals and objectives.

In releasing its report, the fifth edition of the Global Environmental Outlook (GEO-5), UNEP warned that "The world continues to speed down an unsustainable path." Its Executive Director, Achim Steiner, said "If current trends continue, if current patterns of production and consumption of natural resources prevail and cannot be reversed and 'decoupled,' then governments will preside over unprecedented levels of damage and degradation."

To those concerned about the environment and the long-term well-being of humanity, the lack of progress on these goals comes as no surprise. The dead hand of inertia that holds back progress on climate change negotiations also presides, with very few exceptions, over efforts to address every other environmental challenge.

The critical, unanswered question is what will it take to slow our progress on the road to ruin? If little is being done on 86 of the 90 most important environmental goals and objectives, what will it take to generate action?

Twenty years ago, when world leaders convened in Rio for the Earth Summit, 172 governments participated, with 108 sending their heads of state or government. Hopes were high that they were galvanized for action. The political rhetoric certainly rose to the occasion, even if the underlying political will was still lacking. The 1992 Rio declaration urged countries to "reduce and eliminate unsustainable patterns of production and consumption and promote appropriate demographic policies." It also invoked the precautionary principle, declaring that, "Where there are threats of serious or irreversible damage, lack of full scientific certainty shall not be used as a reason for postponing cost-effective measures to prevent environmental degradation."

The delegates to the 1992 Rio Earth Summit declared in Agenda 21, which was ultimately approved by 178 governments, that, "Humanity stands at a defining moment in history." Some defining moment. In the past 20 years notable progress has been made in improving health and education in the developing world, but very little has been done to stop the degradation of the environment or to slow the depletion of the natural resources upon which our continued prosperity and well-being depends.

The hope is, although it's a fading one, that this month's Rio+20 Summit will re-engage the global community and steer humanity onto a sustainable path. With world population projected to climb from 7 billion to 9 billion or higher by 2042, and the world economy still on track to triple or quadruple in size by mid-century, the task of reconciling what we demand from the planet with what the planet can sustainably provide is daunting, if not impossible. Business-as-usual is just another name for the road to ruin.

The latest Living Planet report published by the World Wildlife Fund and the Global Footprint Network estimates that humanity is already using 50 percent more in terms of renewable resources than what the Earth can naturally regenerate. By their estimate, we will need 2.9 Earths by 2050 to sustain us. That's 1.9 Earths that we don't have.

Thirty leading scientists assembled by the Stockholm Resilience Centre have identified nine "planetary boundaries," which if crossed, could cause irreparable harm to the planet. They assert that we have already exceeded three of them: climate change, nitrogen loadings, and the rate of biodiversity loss. The other six -- ocean acidification, stratospheric ozone, aerosol loadings, freshwater use, land use changes, and chemical pollution -- are, to varying degrees, approaching a scale "where abrupt global environmental change can no longer be excluded."

Instead of attending another international convention, it sounds like these scientists need to stage what psychiatrists would call an intervention. But isn't that what the 1992 Rio Summit was supposed to accomplish? Wasn't it supposed to jar us to our senses?

The fault lies not with our scientists, but with our political leaders. When it comes to climate change and other environment challenges, Mitt Romney can plead ignorance, even if it's feigned. But what about President Obama? When he campaigned four years ago, Obama said that, "We can't just tell people what they want to hear, we need to tell them what they need to hear." If ever there was a time for straight talk about the challenges facing humanity, this is it. President Obama should go to Rio.

 
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There are no barricades on the road to ruin, but it's equipped with lots of speed limits, warning signs and stoplights. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) tracks over 500 internationally...
There are no barricades on the road to ruin, but it's equipped with lots of speed limits, warning signs and stoplights. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) tracks over 500 internationally...
 
 
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01:59 AM on 06/11/2012
What would it take to slow the world's "unsustainable path'?

I would like to think that people would limit their family size and spend their money on building an energy zero home rather than on entertaining themselves. That they would get around in electric or hybrid cars, instead of buying gas guzzling status cars That they would spend their leisure time tending their gardens by hand, instead of spending time and energy maintaining their estate type lawns and shrubbery. That they would buy locally produced food and crafted items instead of factory food and made by slaves electronics. That they would compost and recycle, instead of littering and filling our beautiful valleys with toxic trash. A few will, but most are addicted to the "good" life of pleasuring themselves with the consumption of fast food, entertainments and ever new/stimulating things. To become responsible stewards of the environment that allows for them and their children to live, is radical, socialist and terrifying, absolutely terrifying!!

So what will happen? War and more war and worse war. Financial breakdowns as lenders cannot be repaid. Inflation so that lenders can be repaid. More inflation because energy is increasingly more expensive in time and treasure to acquire. Starvation for the poorest, nutritional deficiency and denial of health care for the lower classes - decreased life spans for all but the upper 10 - 20%. Police state to protect the elites as the masses riot and die off.
11:56 AM on 06/28/2012
I hate to say it, but you're crystal ball speaks the truth. Orwell, Bradbury and Huxley saw it coming too. I fear we will be over the precipice before the masses realize it. In fact, if you look at the last 5 years or so, we are there - the wars caused by the spread of imperialism and the military-industrial complex; financial breakdowns caused by the big banks; nutritional deficiency caused by big food; police state protecting corporations and the rich; etc. Denial of healthcare may be happening today in fact. We're there, it's just that the machine isn't ready to be fully revealed quite yet. Human society has been cyclical since it began, mostly because we're consumed by the stupidity of greed. Unfortunately, the coming dark days are what's needed to spark change for the better. The despots, be they individuals, governments, ideologies or corporations, are always brought down in the end. The natural way is balance, and try though we may, that cannot be undone.
10:43 PM on 06/10/2012
Is it necessary for humans to be wiped out like the black plague in order for action? Humans are like a group of wild deer over populating a meadow waiting for the year where resources fail them and they all die off. Population curves at the most primal level. This is where humans are. You'd think we could evolve to excel beyond this primal urge to overuse.
12:08 PM on 06/28/2012
Trav, that primal urge is the mark of a parasite, and that is all we are to this planet and it's ecosystem. We will keep draining and scarring our host until we make it unable to sustain us, and then we will perish. The host, then free of disease, will regenerate and hopefully keep a healthy balance for a while. Not a very positive description of mankind, I realize, but even taking into account our potential for compassion, as a species we have failed miserably at rising above it.
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khanti
Cultivator
10:10 PM on 06/10/2012
Only the government can take the directive and initiative to slowdown this disastrous momentum of self- destruction. However some of these decisions may be unpopular as it may affect certain section of the livelihood of the populace. So making a good decision for the environment may not be a popular decision and governments come into power by being popular. Drastic actions need to be taken now to stop the downhill towards trend but too many decisions to protect the environment can affect the country's economy creating a unstable government. The best solution is to educate the people and let them know the real picture of a not very bright future if things carry on like this so that when unpopular decision is made to save the environment everyone has to know the sacrifices they have to make.
01:14 PM on 06/28/2012
You nailed it khanti, and also exposed the Achille's heel. In a hierarchical society, an educated mass is seen as unproductive, even dangerous to those who govern. Educated people think, and are far less likely to follow doctrine without questioning it. The system today has been specifically designed to make education a privilege available only to those who a) are already considered of higher class, or b) are willing to show great effort and drive to be of higher class. The rest are relegated to being worker bees, and they form the middle and bottom layers of the pyramid. This is what's required in the hierarchy. Though we liberal thinkers would like to argue to the contrary, conservatives have always ruled society, and they have no problem with the structure. We shouldn't either. The difference comes in that, as liberals, we believe there should be an organic element to the structure, to let the natural ways and influences be part of it. The conservative view is one in which everything is rigid and dictated, controlled, because they feel they know best. All I ask of people is to look at the madness that is the history of mankind, and see how this thinking has worked for us so far. Just compare a modern liberal society like Denmark or Sweden with a conservative one like Iran or North Korea and tell me that at conservative is better. Now compare the education systems in each of these countries. See the pattern?
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Roosevelt Democrat
01:08 PM on 06/10/2012
First off I believe the planets population could double in size and still be sustainable.

Dramatically reduce fossil fuel usage. The best way to accomplish this is an environmental tariff or tax on products sold based on the environmental impact of manufacturing, transportation, sustainability, & recycling/disposal of the products. Tariffs or taxes for using fossil fuels to supply energy to manufacture or transport products should be high enough to discourage it's use.

Encourage innovation. A minimum of 10% of any product sold in a nation should be manufactured, mined, or grown in the nation it is sold in if at all possible. Having this 10% of inherent inefficiency built in the system will stimulate innovation. To maintain this 10% requires infrastructure. With infrastructure spread out across the world for every imaginable products the opportunity for innovation increases.The attempt to develop the product with the smallest environmental footprint will also increase innovation.

Governments should not forget it's place. Corporations job is to increase efficiency.
Governments job is to increase inefficiency!

I'll repeat myself, Governments works best when it increases inefficiency!

Taxing the Rich and giving to the poor in my opinion is self defeating in the long run and a poor system to redistribute the wealth.

The goal for government in a true capitalistic system is to create a strong middle class! This is accomplished best by making the system less efficient!

This is how we remain sustainable both on an economic level and an environmental level.
RSGmusic
Instrumental music is great
10:10 AM on 06/10/2012
Robert Walker,
the blog or story of the issue was very good untill the end.

"The fault lies not with our scientists, but with our political leaders. When it comes to climate change and other environment challenges, Mitt Romney can plead ignorance, even if it's feigned. But what about President Obama? When he campaigned four years ago, Obama said that, "We can't just tell people what they want to hear, we need to tell them what they need to hear." If ever there was a time for straight talk about the challenges facing humanity, this is it. President Obama should go to Rio."

Mitt is nearly 14 yrears older than President Obama, he has had almost a full generation to observe the problem then President Obama!

You must have (turkey for Brains) to blame President Obama, unless you think he will be a two term President, and in that conclusion no one man can be blamed for global warming assisted by man. It has been going on sense aprox the year 1900.

Long Life to you and may your eternal sleep be not judged by your end to this blog or story.
09:46 AM on 06/10/2012
As we approach this year’s presidential election, I for one feel out of the loop when it comes to conversations about our nation’s future. What I keep hearing from many are assertions about Obama’s socialist tendencies or worse and Romney’s lack of caring and compassion for anyone unconnected to the well to do of our nation. What I don’t hear are conversations about the very real problems facing us as a nation.

Today’s college students are facing tuition fees that are almost six times higher than the tuition fees I paid to earn my college degree. Our public schools which served me well are experiencing a loss of funding and a resulting loss of staff that, in the end, can only hurt our next generation of students. Friends of mine are facing serious medical and financial hurdles today that were unheard of two generations ago. And the gap between the wealthy and the poor and lower middle classes of our society has been growing exponentially over the past decade and longer to the detriment of our society as a whole.

How did we deal with these issues years ago? Well for starters, when World War Two foisted incredible costs upon our nation, a majority of our nation’s wealthiest never batted an eye when called upon to pay a higher percentage of their large earnings to help us through our challenges.
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Roosevelt Democrat
01:13 PM on 06/10/2012
2 weeks ago My wife and I picked our daughter up from college. We could not get all her stuff in our car so had to ship some of the stuff UPS ground.

The bill for shipping my daughters things was higher than either mine or my wife's college tuition!
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den1953
The National Inquire of Politics the GOP!
08:51 AM on 06/10/2012
The Earth is a large planet one leader can't accomplish it all as long as the third world gets dumped on the industrial nations will continue the assault on the polar ice caps and slowly strangle survival more severe storms and drought, no wonder man is looking to escape to other planets?
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somewhatodd
micro-bio undetectable to the naked eye
08:45 AM on 06/10/2012
greens need to rethink their strategy, and not merely obsess over curbing present emissions but focus instead on a massive effort to pull down and sequester co2 from the atmosphere through biochar.

that will allow the rich and powerful conventional opposition to curbing emissions, which presently feels threatened, defensive and adversarial, to become instead cooperative and de-villainized.
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Roosevelt Democrat
01:54 AM on 06/10/2012
Asia in less than 10 years doubled it's already massive use of coal. Today over 2/3's of all mercury pollution in the U.S. is blown in from Asia and that percentage is rising fast. To put that in perspective, the EPA could shut down all coal fired generations plants in the U.S. and in 5 years these gains in mercury pollution would be wiped out!

"There is no place called away!" A quote from University of Washington atmospheric chemist 
Dan Jaffe.

The workable solution is environmental tariffs or taxes based on the environmental impact of manufacturing, transportation, sustainability, and responsible recycling/disposal of all products sold.

We need to encourage local manufacturing and sustainability of products sold.
zinxeb
Empathy ends cruelty
11:48 PM on 06/09/2012
We all know what happened when President Carter said that we should lower our thermostats and put on a sweater! President Obama isn't gonna make the same mistake, and most of the other world leaders are more concerned with the poor economy than they are with climate change. Only China seems to be doing something about it with their one-child policy, and you all know how popular that is.

What scientist just aren't telling us is that we have already gone past the point of no return...if we stopped polluting this minute, it will still take hundreds of thousands of years for the planet to clean itself up.

"In for a penny, in for a pound" is the old saying...which we are applying to our environmental concerns...nobody wants to be the first to throw out their air-conditioners and clothes dryers...so we'll keep going just the way we are going...until something really bad happens, and the population decreases considerably and painfully for us, and whatever we share the planet with.
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Charlotte Sewall
07:44 AM on 06/10/2012
and no one even is considering solor flares caused any of this,ocean warming ,volcanoe eruptions, bird falling out of the sky fish dieing and beaching.....bs its here, and no one will change that
zinxeb
Empathy ends cruelty
12:24 PM on 06/10/2012
Wonder where you got that information about solar flares? If solar flares were the cause of all of our environmental problems, we would have been the first to suffer from it. The earth's atmosphere protects us from any ill effects of solar radiation caused by flares.

It's comforting to blame things that we have no control over for all of our environmental problems, but the grim reality is that WE are the cause...can't hide from reality. With 7B people on the planet...people who need to drink water, eat, build communities and use resources...do you seriously think that things don't get used up or polluted?

Two thing that that everyone on the globe could easily, and relatively quickly, do to ease the burden on the environment would be population control and cutting back on waste of our precious resources...easily and quickly...and inexpensively. Couldn't hurt to do that, could it?
09:38 PM on 06/09/2012
Well, it's true a growing 7 billion people cannot all live the Western way...
08:48 PM on 06/09/2012
If the "Greens" were really committed to CO2 reduction, in addition to solar and wind power, they would be pushing for nuclear power, which emits zero CO2.

Nuclear is also, statistically, as safe as solar and wind, far safer than oil and gas. Including the recent reactor failures in Japan, which aren't known to have killed anyone (more than 20,000 were killed by the tsunami, which was all natural and organic!), Three Mile Island, which killed nobody, and Chernobyl, which killed about as many people as die in car crashes in America every day . . . nuclear is statistically the safest power source in history. It doesn't even make the Top 100 causes of death. Worldwide, more than 100 million people will die this year. The odds are very excellent that none of them will die from nuclear power plant accidents.

Solar power only works when the sun shines. Wind power only works when the wind blows. Nuclear power works when the sun don't shine and the wind don't blow.
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03:28 AM on 06/10/2012
There's nothing clean about radiation.
04:56 AM on 06/10/2012
Actually, you are irradiated 24/7 and have been every day since your birth. And will be every day until you die. The sun's core is a natural nuclear reactor that bombards Earth with radiation continuously, and the Earth's core is a natural nuclear reactor that emits radiation and heat continuously - enough heat to keep 99% of the mass and volume of the Earth molten, much of it liquid, liquid molten rock, lava, at temperatures up to 10,000 degrees.

The radiation you get from the Sun and the Earth's core almost infinitely exceeds the radiation you will get from nuclear power plants.

Yes, too much radiation will kill you, and too much aspirin will kill you, and too much food will kill you, and too much water will kill you, and too much time in the sun will kill you.

Your chances of dying from something are 100%. Your chances of dying from heart disease, cancer, or diabetes, are about 90%. Your chances of dying from radiation poisoning from a nuclear power plant or waste management accident are less than 1 in a hundred million.

We accept the common dangers that will almost certainly kill us, and we fear the rare dangers that will almost certainly never hurt us. We are very strange beasties, us humans.
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Roosevelt Democrat
12:28 PM on 06/10/2012
or as natural.
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silverwolf13
I know that I do not know.
04:45 PM on 06/10/2012
Nuclear power requires massive capital investment. Much cheaper and quicker to build solar and wind.
05:41 PM on 06/10/2012
True.

But solar only works when the sun shines, about 1/3 of the time. And wind only works when the wind blows, about 1/3 of the time, and not everywhere. Batteries to store electricity? Just to electrify our cars and light trucks would require something like 150 million tons of electric car batteries, and that would require the mining, smelting, and refining of billions of tons of ore for the metals to make all those batteries, very energy intensive, with an enormous environmental impact where the mines are.

Nuclear power plants typically cost about $10 billion. We spend about $1 bil a day importing oil. Ergo, for what we spend importing oil, we could build three dozen nuclear power plants per year, and reduce the trade deficit as they come online and replaced imported oil, adding 30,000 job years to the US economy for every $1 billion cut from oil imports.

Nuclear power would enable the shift to a hydrogen fueled transportation economy, without mining billions of tons of ore to make hundreds of millions of tons of batteries, and without adding tens of thousands of dollars to the cost of a car to pay for the batteries.

But we are hamstrung by our self-inflicted Nucleophobia.
08:41 PM on 06/09/2012
Our changing climate?

Do a little more research. Our climate is always changing, has been cycling between Ice Ages and Global Warmings every 100,000 years or so, give or take ten thousand, for more than three million years. The last Ice Age ended about 12,000 years ago. Over the next 4,000 years most of the glaciers melted, so much ice that sea level rose more than 400 feet, to nearly it's present level. Then, during the Holocene Maximum 8,000 years ago, the climate was about 2 degrees warmer than now, and has been on a long slow cooling trend since. During the last century, the climate has been snaking along with variations within a narrow range of about 1 degree, averaged worldwide. CO2 levels have risen from 280 ppm to 380 ppm, an increase of 100 ppm, or 1 part per 10,000, but if you average the temperature over the last thousand years, it's been about the same; over the last 10,000 years, it's been cooler.

If the climate change cycle of the last 3,000,000 years holds, then sometime in the (geologically) near future, within a few thousand years, a few hundred, perhaps a few decades or sooner, we can expect to drift into another long Ice Age. Some climatologists think we have already passed the heat peak, and our journey into the next era of Global Cooling has already begun.
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rogwheel
All generalizations are false, including this one.
12:18 PM on 06/10/2012
You are a great science fiction writer! "Some climatologists" should read "a few paid by oil companies"
03:42 PM on 06/10/2012
If you google "Global Warming Petition Project" you will find a list of more than 30,000 scientists, including 9,000 with PhDs, who have objected to the assumption and conclusions of the Global Warming proponents, i.e., that global warming is caused by human use of fossil fuels and CO2 emissions. While atmospheric CO2 has risen 1/3 in the last century (280 ppm to 380 ppm), global temperature has risen less than 1 degree, and has declined slightly in the last ten years as CO2 continues to rise.

Once upon a time all the best scientists thought the earth was the center of the universe, and flat.

If you go to www.GlobalWarmingArt.com you will see good illustrations of Climate Change over the last 65 million years. You will see that the climate has been cycling between short periods of Global Warming and long periods of Global Cooling (ice ages) for more than 3 million years, with a Global Warming era approximately every 100,000 years. "Global Warming" began about 12,000 years ago, ending the last long Ice Age, when much of the northern hemisphere was glaciated, with what is now the Great Lakes Region, Michigan, Wisconsin, covered by glaciers up to 15,000 feet deep, or high, higher than any mountain in the contiguous 48 states. Seattle was under a half mile of ice, not so long ago.

The climate has always been changing.
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rogwheel
All generalizations are false, including this one.
08:29 PM on 06/09/2012
You actually think the mental midgets we are getting in public office could fix anything? Look the global elites are destroying the world as we write our tiny protests. Green is coming, how, after they have managed to exterminate most of us with war, poverty, oppression and genocide. Green is part of their agenda, get rid of us so they can live in mansions on vast estates with slaves toiling in the fields and in their households, looking out on vast game preserves, a beautiful green wilderness. So all you need to do is wait a little. Your concern will be addressed.
08:10 PM on 06/09/2012
I think we need a crisis to get World leaders to do something about preventing human civilization from "falling into the abyss". We are already using more acreage per person to live than the planet has in arable land...not a good thing to be doing...by 2050 we will need almost 3 Earth to sustain our rate of consumption. It seems to me that the solution is a "no brainer" ...either we reduce our consumption or we reduce the size of the human population on the planet...It seems we need more authoritarian forms of government, because the compromise of democracy is failing miserably to get the job done.
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flossophy
the unfamous anti-establishment classical liberal
08:30 PM on 06/09/2012
Don't worry, you'll get your wish. By 2050, the West will only be about 10 percent of global population and declining... while the other 90 percent will be living in illiberal or authoritarian regimes on a far more crowded, poorer, more poIIuted, reprimitivized and vioIent planet... and the remaining free folks will be wondering why the West decided to remove themselves from the future, knowing what the consequences would mean for the environment.
09:43 PM on 06/09/2012
as long as the West (your 10% of the 2050 global population) is capable of defending all their land, everything will be fine.
01:24 PM on 06/28/2012
Touche', mon ami!
08:32 PM on 06/09/2012
Don't fret little greenie, most of us will be exterminated soon by poverty, war and police state genocide. Industrialization is on the way out, why, because it's not sustainable, never was. In the end it will be people living in places so remote they have been living like human beings were meant to live all along. They won't even notice our disappearance. Animals will return, the earth will be lush and green again.That is if nuclear war doesn't destroy it and us first.
01:27 PM on 06/28/2012
Worry not Lindy. Mother will heal herself even after nuclear war. WE are the problem, so when WE are gone, or at least de-populated enough to be manageable, the problem will be gone too.