No peace on earth, no good will toward men, just a silent night in Bethlehem. The expected droves of Christmas visitors to Nativity Square simply didn't show up, despite the offer by Israel's Tourism Minister Isaac Herzog to provide free transportation in and out of the city of Jesus' birth. The dismal pall cast over the holiday is representative of a deepening sense of gloom that has enveloped the Holy Land, and that accompanies the onset of the New Year.
For Christians, Muslims and Jews alike, 2006 has not been a good year. From the high expectations of disengagement to the plunging despair of Lebanon, the geopolitical situation has become ever more complex. Viewed by many as being the main impediment to wider regional stability, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has been endowed with mega-qualities, as if by solving this dilemma the world will suddenly be flooded with peace and harmony and the chasm between democracies and fundamentalists will disappear. As we ritualistically ratchet up our optimism in the spirit of a new year, we can certainly hope for simple solutions. But looking at the escalating internecine fighting, the stunning lack of leadership, and the grave crises of confidence, it will take more than wishful thinking to create the changes on the ground needed to bring about peace.
On the other hand, though our region would seem, as usual, to teeter on the brink of disaster -- Fatah and Hamas tilting toward all-out civil war, more assassinations fueling age-old hatreds in Lebanon, Iraq gone wild, and Iran ever closer to becoming a nuclear power - - the last few weeks have shown an unexpected flurry of diplomatic activity.
With an uncanny instinct for survival, Prime Minister Olmert has secured his coalition for the next several months, by both insuring smooth passage in the Knesset Finance Committee of the 2007 state budget - - an impressive feat by any standard - - and by beginning to promote a diplomatic agenda. Through a series of well-choreographed meetings, Olmert seems to have finally returned to the path he charted for Kadima's election victory, aiming to jolt the country out of stalemate and toward a two-state solution. A key difference, however, is that he now appears to be moving away from the unilateral approach of his "convergence" plan, and, at least publicly, pursuing dialogue and negotiations.
At the end of November, the Prime Minister delivered his rousing speech at Ben Gurion's grave, expressing yet again Israel's commitment to "the establishment of an independent and viable Palestinian state, with territorial contiguity" in the West Bank and Gaza "with full sovereignty and defined borders." Since that time, there's been a spate of high-level meetings with Israel's neighbors. A quick trip to Jordan to meet King Abdallah was followed by the first meeting between Mahmoud Abbas and Olmert since he became prime minister. With a great deal of ceremony and a public embrace, Olmert promised to ease restrictions on the Palestinians, including the removal of roadblocks and the release of $100 million owed in tax money. Next, Egypt's Foreign Minister Ahmed Aboul Gheit arrived on a visit to Israel and the PA; and this week, in Sharm el-Sheikh, Olmert will hold his first official meeting with Hosni Mubarak. Closing the circle will be a visit to Israel by Condoleezza Rice on January 13th.
Whether all this is a public relations ploy or a genuine re-evaluation of the situation, Olmert is playing serious catch-up to retake control of the diplomatic game. Olmert's relative inexperience has led to a significant lack of public confidence and low approval ratings in the polls. Defense Minister Amir Peretz, the self-acclaimed leader of the peace movement, lately won points among the security establishment by approving new construction in the unpopulated Maskiot settlement in the Jordan Valley. Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni, motivated by the common-sense belief that diplomacy must be serious and sustained, and not intermittent or capricious, has been energetically churning out new diplomatic ideas to push forward negotiations, even under fire, with a consensual diplomatic process rather than a unilateral one; she does not rule out a Syrian track and promotes lowering Israel's profile on Iran. Squeezed between these two rivals, Olmert was compelled to act. Hovering on Olmert's right, too close for comfort, is Bibi Netanyahu, waiting as ever for the chance to pounce. Indeed according to the results of the Yediot Ahronot/Dahaf poll of two weeks ago, he is well positioned to do just that: Bibi Netanyahu leading the Likud would receive 32% of the vote if elections were held today; Olmert heading Kadima would get 18%, and Amir Peretz with Labor a mere 12%.
But, like the cobbled streets of the Holy City of Jerusalem that wind this way and that, the people are not as straightforward as they seem. The consistent results of the joint Palestinian-Israeli public opinion poll conducted annually by Hebrew University's Truman Center and the Palestinian Policy and Survey Research show that the majority of both communities continue, over the past six years, to support a negotiated settlement. Sixty percent of the Israelis and 49% of the Palestinians support the Road Map; 52% of Israelis and 48% of Palestinians support the Clinton Parameters; and, 58% of Israelis and 81% of Palestinians support a comprehensive settlement option rather than an interim accord. Despite the violence, hardship and uncertainty, there is a surprising measure of generosity of spirit on both sides. Arabs and Jews are willing to give negotiations, and each other, a chance. With that goodwill in mind, 2007 should be dedicated to the vigorous pursuit of peace, if not on earth, then at least in the Middle East.