The Latino vote -- once described as sure-fire Republican in the Miami area, absolutely Democratic in the rest of Southeast Florida, and a toss-up along the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Cape Canaveral -- is having a dramatic impact on Florida politics in 2008.
Its importance may not become totally relevant until the November General Election; however, it is apparent that there is a shift in allegiance as voters head into the impending Florida Jan. 29 presidential primaries.
The pundits and most polls seem to agree - the Latin vote is now up for grabs in Florida.
And, if you listen to Democratic insiders, Cuban-Americans may vote in the GOP primary this month but they are a rising Democratic hope for November. Meanwhile, other Hispanics are also showing pro-Democratic Party "simpatico." If that happens, Florida has tremendous potential to go from red state to blue state, and possibly decide the presidency, no matter who the nominees are.
That's probably just partisan talk to most of America, but many Florida Hispanics truly believe they will be the key vote, turning more toward the Democratic party in 2008. There is agreement that they are tired of candidates pandering on anti-Fidel Castro themes and not addressing other issues, such as the economy and immigration.
"You have to understand, first generation Cubans voted Republican, but the new generation is leaning toward the Democrats. And, they are fed up with (President) Bush," says appropriately-named America Schroh, who has been urging her Latino neighbors to switch parties so they can vote in the Democratic primary (she's supporting Hillary Clinton).
A nationwide Pew Hispanic Center report issued last month found that 57 percent of Hispanics now call themselves Democrats or lean toward the Democratic Party. That compares with 23 percent who label themselves Republicans. That is a 28 percent drop for the GOP since 2006. Richard Fry, author of the Pew study, told the Sun-Sentinel in Fort Lauderdale, "There's been an erosion (from the GOP) and there is evidence of a substantial shift to the Democratic Party."
The Cuban-American phenomena toward the GOP can best be illustrated by the continued re-election of two Miami-Dade Congressmen -- two brothers with an illustrious pre-Castro Cuban name, Lincoln Diaz-Ballart and his sibling Jose. The two have held the seats since reapportionment a decade ago and have never had serious opposition. This year, two of the most popular Hispanic Democrats in South Florida -- Democratic party chairman Joe Garcia and former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez -- have been named as possible Diaz-Ballart opponents. If so, it will create a huge turnout on both sides in the November presidential election in Miami-Dade, with national implications.
The latest figures from the State Division of Elections were issued in 2006, showing 414,185 Hispanic Republicans, 369,902 Hispanic Democrats, and 312,881 "unaffiliated." But observers from both parties think these figures are low, especially going into 2008.
There has been a tremendous influx of Latinos in the past few years, not just from Cuba, but from elsewhere in Latin America, notably Mexico, Colombia, Venezuela, Argentina, Brazil, and Central America (especially Panama), many with names not necessarily Hispanic-sounding. Many are upper middle class who came with investments or second homes in Florida and have citizenship papers "and will vote."
And, some -- though originally more conservative than other U.S. Spanish-speaking voters -- have expressed dismay at what they view as the Republican party's congressional efforts to sink the immigration bill.
Despite this nose-snubbing at the GOP, the Republican Party has put out a message to its Hispanic audience, saying that "we care about the same issues that all Americans care about."
Several prominent Republicans have joined the bandwagon for Mayor Rudy Guiliani, including Gov. Charlie Crist. Conservative Hispanic leaders, including House Speaker Rep. Marco Rubio, have joined the Mike Huckabee campaign. And Sen. John McCain has shown up strongly in Florida newspaper polls and is being aided by popular anti-Castro Sen. Joe Lieberman, who has been making the rounds of Little Havana coffee shops in Miami. Gov. Mitt Romney has begun a television blitz in Spanish and English.
The Democrats have also put out strong messages, especially aimed at "new Hispanic voters," and are getting a solid reception as they decry the GOP'S anti-immigration stance. The Democratic party is also getting praise for comments by candidates John Edwards, Hillary Clinton, and former candidate Gov. Bill Richardson, who made early and well-received appeals to Hispanic voters in Florida.
"I like what the Democrats are saying," said Ricardo Pena, an Ecuadorian American who is actively engaged in local Broward Country politics. "I just wish the candidates were here in person."
Florida Democrats won't get a one-on-one with the Presidential nominees until after Jan. 29. The three major Democratic candidates are boycotting the state because of an intra-party feud over the selection of a pre-Super Tuesday (Feb. 5) election date. There have been rumors that there could be surprise appearances in the Sunshine state or, at least, the sending of more surrogates to speak on their behalf (Edwards, Clinton and Barack Obama have been asked to make "fund-raising appearances" (allowed under the boycott rules).)
"I wish the Dems would send in Elizabeth Edwards (Sen. Edwards wife)," says an e-mail blast this week.
Laura Prado, a second generation Argentinian-American, says all the Democrats are taking positions which Hispanics, "like the rest of the population," can admire. "The votes of our generation will make the difference in November."
Prado, cornered at a Fort Lauderdale Democratic club meeting, said the diversity of the Hispanic population and their interest in the Democratic party is evident in Florida. She cited the many nations of origin and their economic variance represented locally.
Population estimates seem to bear her out. Many immigrants from Guatemala came to the U.S. originally as refugees from the 1980s civil war and worked as day laborers in the crop-picking industry. Now, one generation later, they're moving into towns like Lake Worth and Jupiter.
Anglos jokingly now refer to Weston, one of the state's most affluent suburbs of Fort Lauderdale as "Westonzuela" because of the large influx of upscale, professional Venezuelans living there. Many have dual citizenship and have owned homes in the U.S. for many years. They remind locals that they "have voting rights here" but still spout obscenities at the mention of the name of Hugo Chavez, Venezuela's leftist president. There has been a 120-percent increase in Venezuelans in one Florida county alone since 2000, according to the U.S. census.
Almost as dramatic an influx has been the number of Brazilians now making Florida home - a 50 per cent increase since 2000.
Prado, a professional therapist, says Democrats are talking about issues in which the diverse Hispanic population can relate, no matter what their country of origin.