Most who champion nuclear disarmament were heartened by the election of Barack Obama. His apparent abhorrence of nuclear weapons seemed forged in The Day After eighties. Hopes soared after he delivered his celebrated Prague speech in April outlining his vision for a nuclear-free world.
The first step -- negotiations on a treaty to continue the work of the recently expired Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) -- may not have met the December deadline, but the treaty's conclusion is seen as imminent. The new, improved model of START, the New York Times reports, "would require each side to reduce deployed strategic nuclear warheads to roughly 1,600 [and] strategic bombers [and] missiles to below 800." Still, "Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia said on Thursday that there had been 'some slowing down' in negotiations by the other side."
According to the Moscow Times, he had urged U.S. officials to accept even deeper cuts. Hmm, says the United States, as it looks a gift horse in the mouth. Turns out where teeth should be are the dreaded "less intrusive verification measures."
Resolving those differences, though, could lead to subsequent negotiations for an even more ambitious treaty. This one, reports the New York Times, "would reduce the number of deployed [as well as stored] strategic warheads even further, perhaps to about 1,000 for each country." Oddly enough, lowering the number of the smaller nuclear warheads, known as tactical (ostensibly for battlefield use) poses a stumbling block.
In fact, as the Arms Control Association's Daryl Kimball told the Times, agreeing on their reduction would make the START follow-up "look like a walk in the park." Seconding him, the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center's Henry Sokolski said, "The idea that [the Russians] would give these things up lightly is a fool's errand." (Never mind that an idea can't be an errand.)
For starters, Russia views tactical nuclear weapons as a way for it to compensate for conventional supremacy on the part of the United States. Neither is the NATO alliance, which sees tactical nukes as a token of U.S. affection, in any rush to wave them bye-bye. For its part, Russia also just conducted a successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ominously code-named "Satan" by NATO). This was on the heels of a failed launch earlier this month that left a plume of light over Norway earlier this month.
Furthermore, according to Global Security Newswire, "Russia intends to deploy a new nuclear-capable strategic bomber between 2025 and 2030." As if all that weren't enough, Russia's new nuclear weapons doctrine might "permit Moscow to carry out a pre-emptive nuclear attack" (also known as first use).
Between Russia's new bomber, first use, disagreements over verification procedures, and its tactical nukes (as well as Europe's reliance on those), we can be excused our skepticism about a follow-up to the START agreement, not to mention a follow-up to the follow-up.
At least as troubling, from the point of view of the United States, is what's to keep the START treaty from winding up as watered down as President Obama's feeble attempts at bank and health care reform?
First posted at the Faster Times.
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Putin threatens new missiles to counter US shield
Russia to continue developing nuclear arms after new START treaty
His decision was to fund the building of new types of nuclear warheads.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/03/23/AR2009032303091.html
http://www.newjerseynewsroom.com/nation/obama-asks-world-to-reduce-nuclear-weapons-while-us-agency-pushes-new-bomb-production
The U. S. has a fleet of 14 nuclear-powered Trident ballistic-missile (SSBN) submarines. The 336 D-5 missiles deployed in that fleet (24 missiles per sub) can carry a combined payload of 345,000 kilotons. That means the Trident fleet alone could replicate the Hiroshima blast (14 kilotons) today, tomorrow and every day without stopping for Christmas or holidays for the next 67 years.
Six Tridents are based in Georgia. Eight Tridents are based in Bangor, Washington near Seattle.
President Obama has said publicly that he is committed to keeping the U. S. the most dominant military power in the world.
1) Because domestic demilitarization will not soon take place.
The military budget is increasing, not shrinking. The USA has become a 21st century Sparta, spending more on the military than the rest of the world combined. The Pentagon budget alone is greater than all 50 US state budgets combined. The chief US export is armaments.
The US is wedded to endless war and militarization. The US economy is reliant on militarism.
2) Because Russia will not likely want to disarm in the face of increasing US provocations and threats such as NATO expansion, the US arming of belligerent mini-states like Georgia, and encirclement by a US 'missile shield'.
3) Because Obama is too deeply committed to a policy of war and militarism. He insolently used the venue of a peace award to give a speech extolling the 'just' morality of war, and to not so subtly scoff at the non-violent beliefs of MLK and Ghandi