The findings of a Los Angeles Times/KTLA poll suggest supporters of gay marriage should temper their celebrations in response to last week's California Supreme Court ruling and prepare for a rough and tumble fight over a ballot initiative that could place the one man, one woman definition of marriage into the state constitution.
If the Limit on Marriage initiative, which will likely appear on the November ballot, were voted on today, 54 percent of registered voters polled would support it, 35 percent would be against it, and 10 percent remain undecided, said the Los Angeles Times.
Opponents to the measure say they aren't surprised by the results. "We think that [support] will come back down as people start to learn more about the issue," said James Vaughn, director of Log Cabin Republicans of California, a group of gay and lesbian conservatives. The high number reflects a generalized backlash against the court overturning a statute passed by voters, not the true sentiment of Californians on the particular issue of gay marriage, he said.
The effect of the gay marriage issue on the presidential campaign is difficult to discern. Barack Obama, Hillary Clinton, and John McCain all support civil unions but not gay marriage.
A groundswell of opposition to gay marriage -- even in states where the issue is not currently before voters -- could drive conservatives to the polls and have a trickle up benefit for McCain. Some have even suggested that in California, a large enough push for the ban could put the state in play at the top of the ticket, or at least make the race close in the most populous state.
On the other hand, since supporters for Obama match the profile of supporters for gay marriage -- young voters, independents, people with college degrees -- the surge for Obama could trickle down and spell doom for the initiative, said the Los Angeles Times in its report on the poll.
For Republican candidates lower on ballots, appealing to moderate voters could mean a preference for abandoning hot button social issues altogether. "Red-meat GOP issues" including gay marriage were absent from the House Republicans' 2008 "American Families Agenda" released earlier this month, reported Edward Epstein in CQPolitics.com.
The issue of how to appeal to moderates can be seen in Arizona's 8th congressional district where freshman Congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords will battle challenger Tim Bee, who currently serves as president of the state senate. Bee backed placing a gay marriage amendment on Arizona's November ballot but has yet to put it up for a vote in the senate. While Bee denies he's backpedaling on the issue for political reasons, "wouldn't it be much easier for Bee if the entire issue would vanish?" asked the Tuscon Citizen.
Thanks to California, the issue won't be doing a disappearing act anytime soon.