The talk of winning in Afghanistan has lost its meaning. It truly has, long before President Obama took his oath; long before the infamous Internet organization WikiLeaks dropped the 92,000 Afghan war logs' bombshell. While a sizable majority of the American public has been in favor of a complete withdrawal, and some liberals call for partial withdrawal, things are moving quite slow at the White House. And rightly so. Here in Pakistan, there has been an increasing realization that the American presence in Afghanistan, and the drone attacks in Pakistani tribal areas, are not too bad either.
That sparks a conundrum. A recent survey by the BBC Urdu Service suggests that up to 80% of people in the tribal areas are in favor of drone attacks. There have also been some indications that the drone attacks are mostly on targets, unlike previous assumptions. The troop surge in Afghanistan has failed to bring down the Taliban and General Kayani has got a three year extension.
Nine years have passed and the so-called insurgency in Afghanistan has seen a massive upsurge. Perhaps it's time for the US to finally talk to the Taliban. General Kiyani is ready to act as a mediator as he is playing host to the Haqqani Network and a number of other groups. It is payback time for him for the support he got from Richard Holbrooke and Hillary Clinton regarding his extension (though there have been official denials about that but those in the know, know). Being the introverted but brainy guy that he is, he already knows that the time has come to finally squeeze some major benefits out of the US and NATO forces.
While the Treasury Department has put the Haqqani Network's bigwigs on the terrorists' lists, and the War Logs convict the ISI of an active involvement in this game, the whole episode will not augur well with the Pakistani Army Chief who has got a new lease on life, and of course with the ISI. Considered as the most prized Taliban faction under the cover of ISI, and also one of the most active in Afghanistan, the Pakistani Army is intent on including the Haqqanis in any future Afghan settlement.
On the face of it, the Pakistani Army is winning the war as the US will need its support at the end of the day to bring the Taliban to the negotiations table. But, it will lose if the US takes stern action against the Haqqani network and Lashkar-e-Taiba, as Admiral Mike Mullen recently suggested in talks with Pakistani journalists, calling it the new global threat.
The divergence of American and Pakistani interests in Afghanistan will spell disaster for both. Rogue elements in the ISI are already fuming over the sanctions slapped over the Haqqanis -- and the brouhaha over WikiLeaks -- and they will encourage their proteges to expand their attacks in Afghanistan. Consequently, US will increase drone strikes in Pakistan and may also take some ground action in the tribal areas.
"As I see it. It will be a lose-lose situation for all, especially for the US," a retired Pakistani general who has also worked with the intelligence agencies told me. He said that the Afghans as a whole are against the occupying forces and Karzai has taken steps to reach out to Taliban factions. Any stern action will spoil the broth.
He, however, also agreed that the Taliban have become a problem for Pakistan and any consolatory approach should not be taken towards them unless they promise to stop attacking Pakistani civilian and military targets. He opined that slow but stern action that is spread over a period of two to three years may produce some better results for the US forces in Afghanistan.
The 2011 withdrawal deadline, however, is a major impediment to that. While there has been no indication by the Obama administration to withdraw forces in 2011, there needs to be an extension of the deadline to achieve the basic goals in Afghanistan.
Amid all this confusion, at the end of the day, it is President Obama's war. Stakeholders in Pakistan and Afghanistan -- and the disgruntled American public -- are waiting anxiously for his decision. The sooner he makes it, the better it would be for everyone.