For Democrats, the Future Hinges on Health Care

The most recent New York Times/CBS poll finds support for Democrats on health care reform declining for the first time in recent memory. According to the study, "Americans are concerned that overhauling the health care system would reduce the quality of their care, increase their out-of-pocket health costs and tax bills and limit their options in choosing doctors, treatment and tests."

A progressive overhaul wouldn't lead to any of these things, but in politics falsehoods become truth if enough people believe them. The reality is that Republican tactics are slowly succeeding in obstructing and obfuscating the Democratic health care agenda -- for which favorability has been exceptionally high recently. Opponents of reform have reportedly spent $9 million on television ads so far to make this happen.

The conservative messaging campaign is thriving on misinformation and propaganda. They're using the same tactics they've used to kill health reform in the past, as well as undermine every existing major government initiative that has proven to be widely popular -- including Medicare, Medicaid and Social Security. And although Friday's negotiations staved off some problematic concessions, it's working to a degree.

This is a wake-up call for the Democrats. They better get it together, because if not, Republicans might take back control of the debate, reversing the recent gains made by progressives. Don't forget that the two failed Democratic attempts at overhauling health care -- under Presidents Bill Clinton in the 1990s and Harry Truman in the 1940s -- both led to huge Republican takeovers of Congress.

This time, Democrats have much more going for them -- a popular president, commanding majorities in both chambers of Congress, and an usually high favorability advantage over Republicans. Poll after poll has shown huge support for a comprehensive overhaul--including a public option -- by most Democrats, Independents and even a majority of Republicans. So why can't Democrats get this done?

There are many answers to that question, but the most relevant one is they haven't played their cards right.

The first big mess-up was not even raising the prospect of single-payer in a serious way. This left the public option -- a half-decent solution -- as the most liberal idea, allowing conservatives to focus their attack machine on it. If Democrats made single-payer their opening bid, a public option would have ended up being a feasible compromise, leaving conservatives much less able to undermine it.

Another blunder was not negotiating a legislative framework with conservative Democrats before the debate went out-in-the-open for the medical-industrial complex to distort and corrupt. Success for the Democratic party is ultimately in the interests of all Democrats, and even more so for the ones who represent conservative regions -- because their constituents, if discouraged, would be least hesitant to defect to Republicans.

Currently Blue Dogs and key Senate Democrats are buckling to insurance companies and lobbyists invested in the status quo, and teaming up with Republicans to combat progressives. They're touting "bipartisanship" -- which in effect means eliminating or watering down components of the plan that will be vital to its overall performance. And leading Democrats in the House and Senate are taking the bait.

With Republicans in the wilderness at sub-filibuster levels, the biggest obstacle to health reform is Democrats' own inability to act strongly. The progressive caucus is showing some spine, but the rest of the Democrats are putting their political future at risk by wavering on the problems they ran for office to fix. It will be extremely difficult to sustain support in upcoming elections when, even with an iron grip on power, they were unable to advance their own platform. They have no excuse not to deliver.

Still, the battle is far from over and despite their missteps Democrats maintain the upper-hand. But they won't for long if they aren't proactive in spreading their message and combating misinformation. MoveOn.org and HCAN can't accomplish this on their own. Now that change is on the table, time is not on their side. The slower this bill moves the easier it'll be to stop it in its tracks.

Democrats can't afford to hit the playground during the upcoming August recess. These few weeks will be make-or-break. Democratic leaders need to pull their party together to hash out a real solution, and push it with conviction and gamesmanship. Now is the time to put it on the line, because their party will not recover from another failure of this magnitude.

Follow Sahil Kapur on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Sahil_Kapur

Comments

[GreatNews27]

Failure to enact significant health reform will indeed effect Democrats. It will fill their coffers to overflowing from Insurance Alley. With that kind of money and the MSM compliant to tell lies for them, they will be in power forever. Much to the detrement of the planet, the people, and the nation.

[johnashman]

If the Democrats fail, Republicans will come back with something resembling this -

http://64.203.97.61/SolutionsLab/Solution.aspx?Guid=2d50363e-00be-44e8-9251-9a6589ba820d

And it's cheaper, more effective and has unlimited freedom.

The real problem for Democrats is this -

The stimulus package has a huge backdoor cost coming due sooner rather than later. They're already floating inevitable middle class tax raises. That wouldn't have happened under McCain and most people know it. And Obama lost a nearly miraculous way of leading on race by telling the police they 'acted stupidly' and turned it into a loser for him.

There are two options - he gets healthcare passed and people like it and then he gets another term where he's forced to deal with the upcoming problems guaranteed by the stimulus package (and becomes a Democrat George Bush, causing a major rout in 2016) or......he loses on healthcare, has to break a bunch of promises, finishes with a poor economy (becoming a second Jimmy Carter) and Republicans walk right back in in 2012. There could be a 3rd option, but the health care plan is too weak to provide it and the stimulus package was really bad economics.

[JBoy]

How can we realistically consider committing over $1,000,000,000,000 to health care reform when our national economy is in the tank?

[Lemeritus]

Here's your choice: $1 trillion over ten years OR $4.3 trillion by 2017, roughly 20% of GDP, without reform? You're like a guy haggling over the cost of a parachute while the plane is going down.

Btw, that cost estimate comes from: http://content.healthaffairs.org/cgi/content/abstract/27/2/w145.

[Awake-and-Sing]

Were you so worried about finances when George W. Bush was lying the nation into war in Iraq, costing us trillions?

[tompoe]

The Democrats took Single Payer "off the table". Why would they deserve consideration in the upcoming elections, regardless of whatever idiotic excuse of a public option gets passed?

[CTtransplant]

I don't know if the rest of you are as fed up as I am with the obstruction and political game playing going on with this health care reform...but I DO know this - the Republican obstructionists and the Blue Dog Dems have absolutely NO clue what the rest of us are going through with healthcare. Maybe it's time they did!

If you agree, please sign the petition below, and forward it - any way you can - to anyone and everyone you know! Time to let them know how we feel!!!!

http://www.petitiononline.com/PubOp676/petition.html

[MSB]

I don't disagree with your premise. America has shown an incredible tolerance for incompetence and stupidity, which has left both parties still in power, so I'm not sure any amount of ineffectiveness would relegate a party to irrelevance, but I get your point.

I just think this all signals the end of the United States as a viable political entity. It seems to me that successful Democracy is predicated upon informed citizens, and therefore, education has to be THE cornerstone of an informed populace. Informed dissent is democracy's life-blood. Instead we get media-fed hysteria which appeals to the idiotic of every constituency, and drowns out all reasoned discussion - which is EXACTLY what the true corporate power wants so that it can continue to bribe well placed lobbyists and politicians on the take. There is NO allegiance to the public, or policies which would benefit the nation as seen through the eyes of its citizens.

The word 'consumers' says it all. We are the batteries that make "The Matrix" run (so to speak.)

The fragmentation of this nation politically and ideologically is already well on its way. As there is no attempt to establish commonality, there is only "the other." I must admit that I hate (yes hate) the right wing so much myself at this point, that I want to be in a separate country. As far as the media and political powers that push such divisiveness - mission accomplished.

[Lemeritus]

I wish I could say I found your comment unnecessarily pessimistic, but...

[jmpurser]

You're mixing and matching a number of terms here. First, the primary bill before congress is not in any way "health care reform". It's a massive insurance industry welfare bill. Second, while a "progressive overhaul" wouldn't create the government run nightmare of the GOP tales the fact is that only a tiny minority of the Democratic party currently in congress are actual "progressives" on this issue. Most are stalwart defenders of the status quo with a sizable number of DINO's for "balance".

The Democratic parties future might well hinge on how they deal with health care. If so we need to start looking for a new third party ASAP because unless a miracle happens health care reform is about to die for another generation.

[CommonSense21C]

When did we become the United States of OZ?

Republicans have no heart.
Democrats have no courage,
And neither one has any brains.

If the Dems fail on this one or agree to a half-baked 'solution' that is watered down to protect the Insurance Company profits, then my wife and I will NEVER vote Democratic again. They may break another promise to us, but that is one promise we will keep.

[Lemeritus]

Time for an honest-to-goodness progressive party; right now, the only difference between the parties is the sanity quotient and I'm not entirely sure about that.

[leduck]

first off, this is not the number one issue facing this country or the world..., Energy is.
The Entropy crises..., PEAK OIL
secondly..., Americans are worried this will have a negative impact on the quality of their healthcare?
what quality? I've been around the block with HMOs and I'm shocked and discusted about how bad things really are in this country.
If it isn't obvious, let me put it another way, I DESPISE THE MEDICAL SYSTEM IN THIS COUNTRY!
too many unforgiveable mistakes are made.

almost anything would be a step up from what we have now.

[cansingaus]

This has been my problem with recent politics. Partisan warfare is really getting in the way of legislation which would be beneficial to the nation.

The Health Care system needs reform for a number of reasons. First of all, not all Americans are covered. It should be everyone's right to have health care. Secondly, The current Health Care system is getting in the way of economic recovery. With reform, the government would have another step in place to ensure economic recovery happens in a timely manner. And finally, passing a health care reform bill will be the main way the Democrats solidify themselves as the party in control. Mr. Kapur was completely correct in pointing out that even though Democrats have majority support in all areas they need to pass the bill, they can't get it done. Hopefully they can overcome this hurdle.

Politics can sometimes hinder progress.

[hsr0601]

From my standpoint, No Rationing Is Required.

In case you are a doctor, and your pay is dependent upon your patient's outcome, you will more likely strive to prescribe the best medicine for your patient, let alone avoiding unnecessary cares, and hope your patient will feel better as promptly as possible.

Studies have documented that nearly one half of physician care in the United States is not based on best practices and that at least 98,000 Americans die of a 'medical error' each year.

Under the new health care program, practitioners are expected to eagerly and 'voluntarily' implement the 'recommendations' to work best for them, I think.

Nowadays, we can't imagine the society without IT SYSTEM, just to think of the bank that lacks it, presumably what we should fear most would be the medical institutes without A MUST. I think measurable savings in the transformative health program might be reached.

Thank So Much !

[leduck]

thank youmedical errors
underline that

[AntiRethuglican]

The Republicans are TRULY evil! May God have mercy on their sorry souls when their day of judgement comes. They are surely going to need it~

[E4B32787]

First point I would make is, that the Republican/Democrat dichotomy is a false dichotomy, the real dichotomy is between the corporate owned politician and one who represents the people. It seems to me that Max Baucus (D‐Mont.) is a little over lobbied by the medical corporations to represent an alternative to the Republican counterparts.

Second point is, it was Obama who said single payer is off the table. His largest corporate contributors was from the financial/insurance sector. If you don't think Obama is friendly to insurance corporations, just ask AIG.

Third, the reasons the Democrats can take the above approach is because it seem the Republicans have gone off the rails. Between the birther movement, the Palin schizophrenia, the reverse racist allegations and so forth, the Democrats are comfortable in their position. So, maybe Anthony Weiner is calling out the Republicans' contradiction in opposing "socialized" medicine while supporting of Medicare, but Obama and Baucus sure aren't. At any rate, the Democrats can risk a failure of reforming health and yet retaining control.

Last, the public is looking for cost relief. We know that people in foreign countries pay less. When we hear a plan that requires PAYING instead of a plan that will produce SAVINGS, well, it's hard to get enthusiastic about that. There's been a little too much emphasis on preserving corporate profits.

[moonflowerjewelry]

well, all of us continuing to be so complacent in the face of knowledge that our fellow americans are suffering will get the country we deserve. we had a chance to make it right, and we didn't. it is going to be much worse, and we will be incredibly sorry down the road.
color me resigned...

[pilotsknob]

Sadly, this doesn't surprise me at all. Republicans are framing the health care debate to their vantage point. Democrats are doing very little except bickering amongst themselves.

Has anyone heard one peep from any Democratic senator or respresentative from California....from largest congressional delegation and most populated state in the Union. I would like to know why my senators (Boxer and Feinstein) and my representative (Woolsey) are not out there beating the drums for health care. What's up?