Olympia Snowe's Mysterious Role in Health Care Reform

A Snowe storm has engulfed the media since last Tuesday. After becoming the lone Republican supporter of the Democratic health care reform effort, Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine has, to some, become the bill's raison d'etre. As the long, dramatic saga of reform approaches its final stretch, Snowe's decision has erupted into a blizzard of infighting among Democrats regarding how tightly they should hold on to her support.

The main source of tension is that preserving Snowe's vote will likely require sacrificing the public insurance option (or at least debilitating it in some way), a provision that's supported by a majority of the public, but virulently opposed by Republicans and conservative activists. The House looks set to pass it, but support in the Senate is much more elusive.

This dispute extends well beyond the mathematics of a single vote. Snowe's vote on the Finance Committee bill (final tally 14-9) was not necessary for its passage. Nor is she likely to cast the deciding vote in the eventual bill on the Senate floor. Instead, it's the symbolism of her support, and the different interpretations of it, at the center of the controversy.

While President Obama prefers to have a public plan, he seems increasingly willing to sacrifice it for cloture. The president's proclivity toward bipartisanship is a natural hazard of his transcendent, post-partisan governing style, where the search for existing common-ground trumps the desire to take on and fight his opponents. Democrats Max Baucus and Kent Conrad have deviously championed this "bipartisan" approach, largely in an effort to mask their special camaraderie with the insurance industry.

More importantly, it's about securing the votes of red-state Democrats like Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu and Evan Bayh, who will face a fierce backlash if they support any measure that might be characterized as "liberal." Even a single Republican backer could provide the necessary political cover for these senators to justify their votes to their conservative constituencies. Some, including Blanche Lincoln, face a tough re-election in 2010, making them ever more likely to vote cautiously.

Progressive lawmakers and activists, however, believe a public option is attainable and worth fighting for -- and that Snowe's opposition will not sink the legislation. Congressman Alan Grayson reproved Democratic leaders for their inclination toward appeasement, teasing them for "dwelling on the question, the unbelievably consuming question, of how to get Olympia Snowe to vote for health care reform." Raul Grijalva, leader of the House Progressive Caucus, called the courtship of Snowe a "waste of time."

The inclusion of a public option will make 60 Senate votes very difficult, but not all Democrats and Independents have promised to bypass a Republican filibuster in either scenario. Embracing the public plan, however, leaves Democrats with the budget reconciliation option, with a new and reachable target of 51 votes. The downside is it'll deepen the partisan divide, but how much worse can that get? A certain level of wrangling with Republicans and arm-twisting of wavering Democrats looks necessary for the bill to pass with or without a public plan.

Moreover, Snowe is from a progressive state that supports Obama and a public option in big numbers. It's entirely plausible that her vote won't affect the electoral dynamics for red-state Democrats. It's also plausible that they will be savagely attacked for supporting anything containing Obama's stamp-of-approval, making the abandonment of a public option politically fruitless, if not harmful, as it could alienate House progressives.

The other danger is that if the Democratic leadership settles now, it will embolden Republicans, Blue Dogs and conservative Democrats to slice more flesh from the bill in the joint committee markup. The document that lands on Obama's desk will inevitably be a lot weaker. But if Democrats hold their ground now with a public plan, the 60 vote target shrinks to 51 under reconciliation, making the trajectory of the bill invariably more progressive. As it comes down the wire, Pelosi and Reid will find enough backers who don't want to be caught voting against health care reform.

Whatever happens, a health care bill in some form looks guaranteed to pass, and partisan or bipartisan, the Democratic Party will get to claim a huge victory. But Obama and Democrats have little time to make a big decision: they can take the cautious, more conservative route and create a bill that marginally improves certain parts of the system. Or, they can prioritize substance over bipartisanship, go the bold and courageous route, and make history by passing legislation that Americans of all political stripes will appreciate as their health care ills subside.

Tick, tock. Tick, tock.

Follow Sahil Kapur on Twitter: www.twitter.com/Sahil_Kapur

Comments

[jazzman]

Snowe is an apt name for the Senator because the Democrats and Obama are using her to snow the American public. The 'quixotic quest' for bipartisanship is in reality an excuse to sell out to the health insurance industry and weaken the health care legislation. This ploy if so obvious as to be embarrassing. It's sickening to watch the President's spokesmen and Democratic leadership preen around trumpeting their bipartisanship legislation while the public sits back and either doesn't give a damn or is disgusted by their antics. One wishes they could see themselves as we see them; a bunch of blowhards convincing themselves that they're pulling one over on us while we just get more disgusted with them.

Oh yes, they'll pass their 'bipartisan' legislation and when it ends up having about the same impact as the credit card bill, the bankruptcy legislation, and the TARP bailout, they'll sit and wonder why their approval rating keeps dropping.

[jdrourke]

I feel a snowe-job coming on...

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[William Young]

She simply voted yes to throw her weight around aka called having public option with a trigger. It's something she's been talking about for quite some time now, so don't be surprised when she tries to slide in the trigger option in the public option, and since we're giving her so much press coverage she feels she has leverage to use this as her platform to get what she wants in the bill.

[healthcarereform]

I don't know why we are catering to any Republicans including Olympia Snowe? I makes her a minority of one out of 350 million who WILL control the outcome negatively and contrary to what 65% of WE THE PEOPLE OF THESE UNITED STATES WANT --- A PUBLIC OPTION. The republicans after the past eight years have a negative moral "high" ground to stand on - they are the ones who have consistently messed things up for WE THE PEOPLE OF THESE UNITED STATES and gotten us into this financial mess that they are now throwing up in our faces as a reason to suddenly become financially responsible. Talk about being hypocritical!!! They took, in those 8 years, a huge surplus and turned it into an even larger deficite without even counting the money they borrowed to fight a dubious war in IRAQ. NO NO, ITS NO TIME TO CATER TO THEIR OBFISCATION. IT IS TIME TO TOTALLY IGNORE THEIR, BY NOW, QUITE OBVIOUS TACTICS.

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[ThePeacemakers]

"More importantly, it's about securing the votes of red-state Democrats like Ben Nelson, Mary Landrieu and Evan Bayh, who will face a fierce backlash if they support any measure that might be characterized as "liberal."

This is how stupid the Dems are. The Repubs don't care what the Blue Dogs vote for or don't vote for - they're still going to characterize them as "liberal" and the dumb media will cover it like - no questions asked.

The rat's are playing people. The Blue dogs are beholden to corporate lobbyists and using "what the Repubs might say or think" as phony cover.

[Carl Caroli]

The democrats want her support to use her as an excuse for dumping the public option. If they do that, it'll be the last vote they ever get from me.

[Elbrando]

While Sen Snowe is currently in the spotlight, she may not be the one that we want to pursue. Sen. Susan Collins from Maine may be the one to go after. There is some friction between the two about who gets more media coverage. We could get her vote just so she can shine in the spotlight as well.

I think the public option could be in the final bill. Having the states choose would be the best option. Some states could choose a public option or have something similar. Then we can see which works the best.

[max hp]

Actively persuing Olympia's vote IS AN ABSOLUTE WASTE OF TIME AND CAN NOT BODE WELL FOR THE HEALTH REFORM.

Take it or leave it should be the attitude.

WHERE IS THE SPINE?

[Moose49]

To paraphrase Frank Zappa, "watch out where the huskies go and don't you eat that Olympia Snowe."

If Harry Reid was even semi-competent as a majority leader, all of this would be moot and Snowe would no longer be able to entertain her delusions of grandeur. Because all 60 members of the Democratic caucus would understand that they either vote for cloture on procedural grounds or lose their chairmanships and other privileges of being members of the majority. This should be automatic!

Of course, they would be free to vote as they wish on the merits, but this way, simple majority rule would prevail.. All you'd need for the public option would be 51 votes (or 50 plus Biden).

It boggles the mind that it wasn't a given from day one that members of the Democratic caucus have to side with their party on all procedural votes.

[Saidas]

I don't understand why she is being made a fuss over. She would be the ONLY Republican vote so no one could possibly refer to it as a bipartisan bill. She won't vote for a public option and even if she did, so what? She only one Rep vote. The majority of Americans favor the public option so why is she being catered to at all. If Obama allows anything to pass without a PO, then it will be Obama's undoing. Reps will hate him for anything he does or doesn't do and most Dems like me will feel the same for having unecessarily caved. POTUS would lose, Dems would lose, and although the Reps would win in the short term, all Americans would lose in the end.

[justobserve]

What is our democracy when the majority support a public option, yet the congress, supposedly representing people, is hanging on to a sole vote of a woman from Maine who stated her opposition to a public option?

[customgreen]

The only reason she has any power is because the Dems are giving it to her.

[ladycubsfan]

I really don't understand how this mousy woman can think that she controls anything. I just don't get it. Olive Oyl has nothing on her! Maybe she's bought into her own hype to the point that she's forgotten a very important truth: You're only worth what someone is willing to pay for you...
I wouldn't give .02 for Ms. Snowe.