Russia's surprise tabling of a draft UN Security Council resolution last week has beeninterpreted by some as the first sign that it is beginning to move away from the Assadregime. For others, it was a pre-emptive tactic that sought to head off more effectiveinternational action against the Syrian regime. What is clear is that the Russians have hadto act, alarmed by the deteriorating situation in Syria and perhaps embarrassed by theon-going killing of protesters. Russia may finally be ready to engage on Syria in the UNSecurity Council, some ten weeks after it exercised its veto -- and after more than 2,000killed since then. Hopefully, it is learning the lesson that protecting Assad has only madehis regime more brutal and made Syria more violent and more unpredictable.
In considering the future of Syria, Russia matters. Its support for concerted internationalaction could prove crucial to attempts to stop the violence in Syria and further pressuringand isolating the Assad regime. Its commitment to working towards a post-Assadtransition in Syria could reassure key minorities and help stabilize the country. It istherefore time to forge a new international compact, which includes a Russia that isfocused on helping Syrians rebuild a post-Assad Syria.
Russia may be best placed to convince Assad and his cabal that the time has come forthem to leave Syria. Failing that, Russia enjoys strong military-to-military ties that couldprove a useful channel to convincing key Alawi security officers, who form an integralpart of the regime to depose Assad and engage in a transition to a truly democratic Syria.
The Russian Orthodox Church also has close historical ties with Syria's Christiancommunity, based largely in the country's two largest and most important cities,Damascus and Aleppo. Some 70 percent of Syria's citizens follow the Russian churchand its leader, Patriarch Kirill, who, in a bid to stop the violence, visited Damascusin early November. The continued efforts of the Church, which has extensive ties toChristians in Syria, may provide the best reassurance to this community of trustingchange in Syria. Such ties would be useful in any future transition in the country.
But the question remains: how can Russia, Syria's opposition, key Arab states, the Turks,the US and Europe work together on Syria? Even more importantly, how can Russia beassured that its strategic interests would be better served by preparing for the day after theBaath regime ends its brutal and stultifying 41 year rule?
With Moscow experiencing its own version of popular protests and Vladimir Putinaccusing Washington of inciting Russian activists, the diplomatic mood is hardlyconducive to the US and Russia working together on a strategically important Syria.Furthermore, Russia's deep skepticism of the use of UN mandates to protect civilians asin Libya, and broader suspicions that humanitarian aims could be used to promote regimechange among its allies, even at home, has made an international compact on Syria thatincludes Russia seem improbable.
However, Russia's tabling of its own resolution at the UN represents a first tentative step
at cooperation, particularly with the Arab world. Improving the text by adopting the ArabLeague's peace initiative, which it first presented to the Assad regime just over six weeksago, and which the League is now threatening to take to the Security Council, should bethe next step.
The current Russian draft shows what has been wrong in its position. The draftcontinues to equate the regime's brutality with that of the largely peaceful struggle of themajority of hundreds of thousands of protesters in Syria. The recent UN Human Rightsindependent commission of inquiry report and other reports by international human rightsorganizations cite arbitrary killings, torture and other acts that constitute crimes againsthumanity being committed by the Syrian security forces. They clearly show that there isno practical or moral equivalence in the regime's actions and the protesters.
Russia also needs to reverse its total rejection of the political, financial and tradesanctions imposed by the Arab League if the Assad regime does not comply with itsdemands. Already, the regime has employed its usual delaying tactics in pulling back itsforces from major cities and towns and allowing human rights monitors and internationalmedia in to the country. As the Arab League has recognized, albeit belatedly, exacting aprice on the regime may be the only action left to stop its "killing machine."
Dialogue, not confrontation, with Moscow is the best way forward on Syria. The RussianForeign Minister, Sergey Lavrov's, meeting in November and on-going contacts withthe Syrian National Council since then are important developments. The opposition'sgrowing internal consensus that it could offer Assad and his family a way out of Syria,potentially offers Moscow an important role.
To date, a concerted effort has not been made with Russia to discuss the ongoingcrisis and its longer-term strategic interests in a changing Middle East. Arab states, inparticular, need to engage with Russia, rather than hoping that isolation will persuade it tochange course. Saudi Arabia is especially well placed to do so. It has long-standing historic ties (Russia was in fact the first state to recognize Saudi Arabia in 1932)and has increased its bilateral cooperation and trade since Vladimir Putin became thefirst Russian leader to visit the Kingdom in 2007.
Similarly, an emerging Egypt could seek to deepen the 2009 Treaty on StrategicPartnerships with Moscow, which promised greater bilateral cooperation in science,education, and tourism (Russians are the largest group of tourists to Egypt). Talkson future cooperation with other Arab countries, such as the UAE, which has beendiscussing the supply of nuclear fuel from Russia, should reassure Moscow that it canforge enduring relations with key states in the region after Assad.
Nine months into its people's uprising, the situation in Syria is slipping dangerouslyout of control. Urgent action is needed to avert a bloodbath inside Syria and protect itscivilians, including its minorities. Very soon, the diplomats at the UN and their leadersin capitals will have little ability to manage events inside the country. Today, there maystill be an opportunity to act. Russia's engagement of the UN Security Council, the Arab
League's continued efforts to end the violence and the Syrian opposition's willingness toengage with Moscow and to consider a way out for Assad could be the cornerstones of anew international compact on Syria. Moscow must seize the opportunity.
Salman Shaikh is Director of the Brookings Doha Center and Fellow, Saban Centerfor Middle East Policy at the Brookings Institution. He previously served as the SpecialAssistant to the UN Special Coordinator the Middle East Peace Process.