Friendly Advice for Hillary: The Best Way to Play a Losing Hand

When stuck with a losing hand, even good professional poker players often don't know when to drop out, because they've thrown so much of their ego along with their chips into the pot. But the greatest players don't fool themselves. They swallow their pride, conserve their capital, and fold their cards. They start thinking about a new opportunity to win. That's the kind of thinking and decision-making Hillary Clinton needs right now, before the next round of primaries in Ohio and Texas. She'll never have a better time to call it quits and play for another day.

The conventional wisdom inside the Beltway is that Hillary Clinton, as fiercely competitive as Roger Clemens, will do whatever it takes to win. At this late stage, however, after yet another big loss in a presidential battleground state like Wisconsin, a successful comeback that ends with her party's nomination in Denver would require that Hillary draw the equivalent of four aces and a wild-card joker. That's essentially what it would take for her to: win all of the remaining primaries and contested delegates by sizeable margins; yank the majority of superdelegates onto her sputtering bandwagon; capture most of the heretofore disqualified delegates from Florida and Michigan after the Clinton campaign helps the Democratic Party rewrite the rules. Yes, indeed, she would need the joker to pull off the last one. And if she somehow did, the furor it would unleash among millions of Barack Obama's African American and young supporters -- the next generation of Democratic voters -- would doom Hillary's chances in November.

With each passing day, an ultimately successful Clinton comeback seems less like a plausible storyline and more like -- as Bill Clinton might say -- one of the biggest fairytales in modern American politics.

Before the "it's-still-a-horse-race" storyline is washed away by political reality, Hillary Clinton should move quickly to get the maximum political gain out of her impending loss. Fair or not, a big part of Clinton's problem is her image as a scheming, conniving unprincipled politician. To be sure, the image is strongest among non-Democrats, but it's a huge liability in the general election when independent voters determine the outcome. Hillary's high personal negatives are the big reason why political handicappers think Clinton would not fare well against John McCain.

Taking the high road is Hillary's best bet. An unexpectedly quick, gracious and magnanimous departure from the race could serve as the first step in her journey to becoming a "new" Hillary Clinton. At a news conference in the next several days, she might say something like this: "I have been privileged to be part of a great watershed in the history of our country. For the first time, a woman and an African American became the leading candidates for the nomination of one of our two great political parties. But ultimately, both my campaign and Senator Obama's are not about gender or race. Both campaigns are about changing the direction of the country, repairing the damage that has been done by the current administration, and restoring America's democratic ideals as a beacon of hope around the world. I ran for my party's nomination because I thought that I would make the best president. But in our democracy, that's a decision, of course, that is in the hands of my fellow citizens. And it is becoming increasingly clear that more of them believe that Sen. Obama will be the party's best choice to run for president. A prolonged, drawn-out and potentially contentious ending for the party's nomination is not in the best interests of either our party or, most important, our country. The urgency of electing a Democrat in November could not be greater. I pledge my full, enthusiastic support to Senator Obama, and I will do everything I can to help him become the next president of the United States."

Although her passionate supporters will be shocked and disappointed, they'll get over it. In the eyes of important Democratic constituencies, especially African Americans, her unforced departure will repair and enhance her reputation. Her stature as a party leader, including her influence in the Senate, will get a considerable boost, as will her standing with independent voters, especially those who backed Obama in the primaries. And even a jaded, cynical national press will probably have to give Hillary at least a left-handed compliment, calling her surprise announcement "unClintonian."

To be sure, this is not the jackpot Hillary Clinton was after. But it's the best she can do under the circumstances. Perhaps nobody will even notice that in dropping out now, she has also begun to position herself for a better result four or eight years down the road.

Comments

[cruisepuppy7452a]

One more thing, the woman may have a questionable hand, but nobody has lost yet. If I know HRC like I think I do, she has saved the best for last. This won't be her swan song. This woman isn't so beaten down that she is willing to fold so easily. Yes, the cards are against her, or are they? Never underestimate the power of the unexpected, the unknown. Neither candidate knows the questions going in, so this debate will give her a chance to do what she does best, debate. A losing hand is only lost if you give in too easily. This woman just might take a split, and stay in until the convention. That is in her best intrest at this point. It will force Mr. Obamma to answer the questions and not skate by on rhetoric. This is where he will stumble. She has fact to back her up, he has innuendo, and double speak. It might not be what people want to hear from her, but it will be the truth. She has the ability to say, Ok, I made a mistake or two on backing this or that, but now, we have to go beyond it and work out the kinks to get the best result for all. He has to play his hand, and this will be the longest one of his life.

[terraprieto]

I"ve never seen Hillary"s run for President as a feminist triumph. If she should win, what would that say to America"s little girls? You can grow up to be president, all you have to do is find and marry a man who will be president first.

Hillary"s own experience, as a senator from New York, is not appreciably more than Obama"s experience as an Illinois state senator plus U.S. senator. As a feminist, I"m not inclined to consider Bill"s work and achievements as belonging to Hillary. I"ve been turned off by Hillary"s talk of "35 years of experience" " when most of that experience is being first lady of Arkansas and the U.S.

The one project she led as first lady, universal health care, was an enormous and damaging failure. Her "plan" was not even brought up for a vote in the Democratic Congress! But it did end any serious discussion of universal health care for the rest of the Clinton presidency.

Senator Barbara Boxer running and winning would be a GRAND feminist triumph. She has won big elections and held office on her own, not by riding her husband"s coattails. I"d be over the moon with pride and joy if it happened.

Hillary? Not so much. Though, if she is the nominee, I will most certainly vote for her in November.

It is quite distressing to see all of the vitriol between Clinton and Obama supporters on this blog and elsewhere. I"m starting to think that the Dems have no chance in November, because the primary fight seems to be leaving lots of people feeling betrayed and very, very angry (on both sides).

I sincerely hope that wounds can heal by November.

[EspritDeVoltaire]

"Taking the high road is Hillary's best bet." - I don't know Hillary personally although several of my friends do. We'll all own flying cars before that day.

[ObamaEdwards]

Four aces and a wild card...she didn't even have that going INTO this campaign. She is the wrong candidate at the wrong time.

[diogeron]

This is a very excellent analysis of what Hillary should do. Having said that, not one of my Democatic Party friends thinks this is what she WILL do, exactly for the reasons articulated above. If the Clinton's want to salvage their legacy among we Democrats, she and Bill should use this article as their template, but I'm not holding my breath.

[gun]

I'm betting that Obama wins Texas bigger than Clinton wins Ohio, if she even wins that.

And the question: Why doesn't Hillary concede: too stubborn or too dumb?

Come on, where is her much vaunted intelligence, because I sure haven't seen any evidence of it.

[tester]

Yeah, yeah, yeah¦ you got it all figured out. The big O didn"t have to get dirty in the campaign and attack Hillary. The press and blogs are doing the dirty work for him. I voted for him, a last minute toss-up because I like both candidates. As a matter of fact I like Mr. Obama more now that he is talking more and more about real issues, the messianic stuff and hope-pope never impressed me. He is getting better with every debate. The race continuing is helping him not hurting him, he is broadening his base. Plus, if I were a Texas or Ohio voter I would be pissed off if I didn"t have a choice in the election.
When it"s time for Hillary to go, we"ll know it and she will know it.
By the way, Jesse Jackson went all the way to the convention with not a prayer on winning. Not many complained and he got some concessions that helped Obama big time.

[newgal]

Classless, tasteless behavior is not the way you want to be remembered but HRC seems hell bent on leaving on an ugly note.
Nice Hillary, Angry Hillary, Sarcastic Hillary - she's turned into Sybil.

She and her husband are going to be persona non-grata in the Democratic Party if they don't bow out gracefully after March 4th.

[dotbed1]

Why does Hillary;s people not tell her that the fat lady is singing and she should bow our gracefully . Now that Nader has risen his ugly head the race can now just get really ugly . Hillary is messing up her chances of winning the VP spot if Obama wins . If Obama wins he may would want Hillary to be over the Health care program , however if she continues with this sleazy trashing out of Obama who the american people are speaking very loud that they want , Hillary can forget it . She hasn't gotten anything done in 35yrs , she can't get it done now . She would show some class if she just goes away.We all that the Carville wheals are working in the backgroud with many of these messy tatics. She pretended to be one thing during the debate and then the minute she was off stage she was back to her old tricks . The american people are not to tolerat this mess .If she keeps on McCain will benifit from her stupidity.

[cruisepuppy7452a]

Actually, the way to play a losing hand is to use mind games. If anyone ever watched the director's cut of Poker after Dark, those who claim to have a losing hand, frequently don't just fold right away. Old rule of thumb, its always possible the opponent will make a costly mistake if he isn't paying attention and gets cocky. Obamma is getting cocky. He assumes he is in the drivers seat, which is possible, but nothing may be as it seems.
His downfall will come, when its exposed that he and other dems were part of the signing of the bill to limit our civil liberties. Hello. Hillary wasn't. With the erosion of our rights becoming an issue unto itself, the public won't go for more Big Brother. Hillary still has that card to play and should if she plans to win. CFR wants someone who will play fair, not just someone that can be manipulated. It ain't over till the fat lady sings.

[Qohelet]

And what "bill to limit our civil liberties" do you speak of?

[cruisepuppy7452a]

Less than a month ago, the dems and republicans signed off on a bill, that would limit civil liberties. Obamma signed this bill, claire McCaskill signed it, Harry reid signed it, Kennedy signed it. It was a bill to allow further spying, limit free speech, go after anyone who is seen as a dessenter or possible trouble maker. That means under this bill, a 90 year old woman carrying a sign of silent protest could be charged, jailed the same as a loud mouth shit disturber at a protest. The fact neither have previous history of being a terrorist is irrelevant under this bill. I urge you to look at Off the Bus, read the arcticle by Jeanine Molloff.
Molloff goes into great detail to explain the complexities of this bill as its written, who signed it, who didn't. Its worth the time to read it folks. I know Jeanine, since college. The woman did her research. She is a regular writer for huff po's off the bus.You may need to google it, or look in thier archives as it was on this past weekend. It raised enough eye brows to garner her serious interviews with the Obamma camp, and others. Read it then get back to me.

[Mikey2U]

Thank you Tina Fey.
Saturday Night Live totally disses Obama and gives Hillary a BIG endorsement.
The MSM is back!

[KenTao]

In light of her performance last night how prescient of you, indeed, sir.

Earthlings Unite!

[bossysooz]

If Hillary were the kind of person who could do this, she would not be in this position now. Ironic.

[vanessar]

WHAT A MISLEADING TITLE... FRIENDLY ADVICE? with friends like you who needs enemies... If Obama is the democratic nominee, the Republicans will keep the White House... MARK MY WORDS... And that will be a blessing in disguise because America and the world cannot afford to have Obama as president!!!

[GuiltyUndertaker]

Oh really? Obama would be worse than George W. Bush? Get a grip on reality. If Hillary Clinton had any class she'd either get out now or start attacking the Republicans instead of Obama. BTW I'm a Kucinich supporter.

[MaureenSharkey]

What Hillary needs to do now is deliver a fire-in-your-belly-speech! You know, the kind that the candidates make after they have lost. Romney's concession speech was the best of his campaign. Al Gore gave a blow away speech at the following convention of his loss. Gerald Ford, Carter, Dole, all gave the speeches that came from the depths of their souls. But Hillary needs to do that NOW! Or else she loses. Darn, because she's the best for the job.

[LeftRoss]

I'm MARKING YOUR WORDS right now.

How ridiculous.

[furpants]

And what exactly do you base that opinion on?

[gigimn]

I absolutely love it when someone pretending to be a friend, finds a way to stick the knife in and twist it.
Why on earth should Hillary give up before the last primaries are over?
She is not and never has been a quitter, that is one of her strengths.

[realistic2008]

I fully agree with you. It bothers the heck out of me when I hear all the experts tell the candidates what to do, is it not up to the voters to decide?

[LeftRoss]

So I suppose it would be friendly advice to tell her to keep going, despite the fact that the only way she could win the nomination would be to tear apart the party. That's not friendly. That's enabling.

I don't think she should quit now either. She should play her hand out until March 4th, to help the Democrats establish some ground game in Texas and Ohio for the Fall campaign. But once she's failed to blow Obama out, she should step aside. Last week I was worried that she might not have the sense to do so, but after tonight's debate, it looks like she does.

Hopefully her supporters will catch on as well.

[daddysboy]

I could hear Kenny Rogers playing in the background while reading this, but you are 100% correct if this is really the current status of her campaign. Is this really the current status of her campaign? That's the question isn't it? I am betting that Clinton won't be able to resist playing all the way till the end because she is a person with a strong will and a belief in herself that is unshaken by the world around her.

[Shadowmann1]

I think they call that "delusional."