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Sanjeev Bery

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Arab Freedom Is Good for Israel

Posted: 02/14/11 05:12 PM ET

2011-02-14-Egyptparty2.jpgWhatever their rivalries, the authoritarian leaders of the Middle East did not want to see Hosni Mubarak removed from power. When you are a dictator - even with the title "King" - the forced departure of another dictator is not the kind of precedent you want set.

Worth noting is that this group of Mubarak loyalists was joined by Israeli leaders as well. Though frequent in their exhortation of democratic values, Israeli officials offered a degree of praise for Mubarak at a time when hundreds of his own people were dying in protests against his regime.

The challenge for Israel is that much of its foreign policy has depended on the continuation of other dictatorships. Whether it is Egypt, Saudi Arabia, or Jordan, Israel has come to depend on having nondemocratic neighbors who rely on US patronage. Israeli policymakers fear that if these autocratic rulers are removed from power, Arab majorities will select leaders who are hostile to Israel.

When the stability of your external environment depends on the repression of others, your external environment is inherently unstable. Practically Israel's entire relationship with Egypt has depended on good relations with two men - Hosni Mubarak and Omar Suleiman. But Mubarak is now long gone, and Suleiman may soon be as well.

Poof - there goes 30 years of diplomatic strategy.

An oft-highlighted Israeli fear is that the Muslim Brotherhood will overtake other voices in Egypt and establish an anti-Israeli government. But as recently reported in the Jewish newspaper The Forward, scholars see the Muslim Brotherhood as having only the support of some 15 to 20 percent of Egyptians. So long as secular Egyptians have sufficient time to organize new political parties, the likelihood of an Egyptian regime run by the Muslim Brotherhood is low.

But even if the Muslim Brotherhood managed to gain political power, so what? They formally renounced violence in 1970, and for forty years, they have stuck to the plan. Al Qaeda's second in command, Ayman Al Zawahiri, even criticized them for doing so. Despite thousands of their members being imprisoned and possibly tortured by Mubarak's regime, the Muslim Brotherhood has not attacked the Egyptian state. Would it make any sense for a hypothetical Muslim Brotherhood government to pick a fight with a nuclear armed Israel?

Instead of fearing the politics of Arab democracy, Israeli officials should take this as an opportunity to understand why so many Arabs are so critical of their neighbor. Yes, anti-Semitism is a real factor. But it would be wrong to see Arab societies purely through this lens. After decades of watching the Israeli Defense Forces militarily oppress the Palestinian Arabs of the West Bank and Gaza, Arab citizens of neighboring countries have a deep well of anger to draw from.

The path to draining this well is simple - though not easy. Israel must make peace with Palestinians and let them live lives of economic opportunity and political freedom. That means ending settlement construction in the West Bank, entering final status negotiations with the Palestinian Authority, and yes, making peace with Hamas.

As reported by Reuters last Christmas Eve, Hamas has already taken the first step by offering a long term truce. But is the offer real? There is only one way to find out. To put it in a different context, if the Taliban proposed a long term truce in Afghanistan, would US officials give it serious thought? Not only is the answer yes, but it is precisely the strategy the Obama Administration desires to stabilize Afghanistan.

For these scenarios to come to fruition, Israel needs to take the sentiments of neighboring Arab societies seriously. That is most likely to happen once those neighboring societies have the freedom to choose their own leaders. And that is why Arab democracy is good for Israel.

 

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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
DeniseA
Most Americans support Israel.
03:46 PM on 02/15/2011
I don't think Israel prefers autocratic-type governments. I think Israel's main concern is that neighboring governments are at peace with Israel.
Israel doesn't really have much say in the type of government of the surrounding nations.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Cynthia Rays
peace in the valley seeker
11:48 AM on 02/15/2011
The survival of Israel seems to depend upon feeling a constant threat. Much of their industry is military and security based. They have no interest in peace.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
DeniseA
Most Americans support Israel.
03:49 PM on 02/15/2011
Israel is desparate for peace. They would love to be able to focus their resources on things other than national defense.
Safety of their citizens and freedom from terrorism is very much a part of their willingness to make peace with other nations.
11:26 AM on 02/15/2011
Hamas renames "Mubarak Hospital"
A hospital in the Gaza Strip, that was named after Hosni Mubarak since the 1990s, has been renamed "Liberation Hospital" by Hamas in solidarity with the Egyptian revolution.

It is funny to see how Hamas is now pretending to have always been against Mubarak - but they never changed the name of this hospital before.
08:02 AM on 02/15/2011
Funny how the Arab dictatorships never said a word about the repression Egypt heaped on the Gazans when Gaza,for CENTURIES, was a part of Egypt! It was Egypt who made a human cesspool out of Gaza!
This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program
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11:13 AM on 02/15/2011
"The decision by the Israeli Cabinet to declare Gaza a "hostile entity" and to order the diminishing of the power and fuel supply is immoral and illegal; constituting prohibited collective punishment of civilians.

Operating rooms, emergency services, sewage pumps and water wells cannot run without electricity. Even intermittently cutting off these services to Gaza’s people will risk the lives and health of 1.5 million people.

Gaza is not an enemy state. Israel continues to exercise significant control over its borders, population registry and tax system and its residents enjoy the protections of the Fourth Geneva Convention and the Hague Regulations concerning occupied territory. This is a position shared by the United Nations, the International Red Cross, the European Union, and other members of the international community.

The harsh closure policy implemented by Israel on Gaza since June has destroyed its economy and turned its residents into charity dependents, depriving them of their ability and their right to engage in productive economic activity. These measures have not achieved Israel's desired political goals. "

http://www.gisha.org/index.php?intLanguage=2&intItemId=665&intSiteSN=113&OldMenu=188
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Cynthia Rays
peace in the valley seeker
11:46 AM on 02/15/2011
Much of the population of Gaza are from the 1948 and 1967 wars when they were forced to leave their homes in what is now Israel and the West Bank. Egypt never helped Gaza but it did not create all the problems there.
03:43 AM on 02/15/2011
"Practically Israel's entire relationship with Egypt has depended on good relations with two men - Hosni Mubarak and Omar Suleiman. But Mubarak is now long gone, and Suleiman may soon be as well.

Poof - there goes 30 years of diplomatic strategy."

But where is the "poof"?
The Egyptian Military has said the treaty stands.
What is your source for making this claim that the diplomacy between Egypt and Israel will change at all?
08:03 AM on 02/15/2011
Exactly...Egypt doesn't want to lose to Israel in another war..which it would!
12:01 AM on 02/15/2011
Arab Freedom is Good For Israel? Interesting development you might not want to approve and post:

As the Obama administration welcomes participation by the Muslim Brotherhood in the new Egyptian government to be formed, reports have surfaced that the Brotherhood is now directing its terrorist minions to use the Sinai as a staging area for new terrorist operations.

According to Israeli intelligence officials, Hamas and al Qaeda fighters, under the operational control of the Muslim Brotherhood, are now using North Sinai as a base from which to launch large-scale attacks on both Egypt and Israel.

While Israel remains a favored target, the new terror strategy is also designed to push Egyptian forces out of the northern and central regions of the Sinai Peninsula and bring Egypt’s border with the Gaza Strip under Palestinian control. An Egyptian retreat would also allow Hamas to fully eliminate the Egyptian blockade that impedes the organization’s smuggling routes into Gaza and restore them back to full operation.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Sanjeev Bery
12:39 AM on 02/15/2011
Thanks for sharing this text. I did a quick google search to find the source (http://bit.ly/frplfB).

The links within the source that are to New York Times articles do not substantiate the claims. The other links go to independent blogs that make some of the bold assertions you quoted above. However, simply quoting a blog that claims to have independent, unnamed Israeli sources isn't enough to substantiate the bold claim that the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, and Al Qaeda are working together. If there are mainstream Jewish / Israeli news sources that you can provide links for, I'd be happy to take a look.
03:32 AM on 02/15/2011
The IDF will have more info...give them a call.
07:22 PM on 02/14/2011
Who will be the first Free Arab to shake my Jewish Hand?
Let's start with you.
Here is my hand...shake it.
09:25 PM on 02/14/2011
I shake it, brother.
09:55 PM on 02/14/2011
Now THAT'S the spirit, my man!
Hindus and Jews have always been friends.
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wom122
Primum non nocere
10:14 PM on 02/14/2011
Many Arabs have shaken Jewish hands. I've seen it time and again in the USA and there is no reason why it could not happen in the Near East.
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Marcus047
given up on HP
06:25 PM on 02/14/2011
"After decades of watching the Israeli Defense Forces militarily oppress the Palestinian Arabs of the West Bank and Gaza, Arab citizens of neighboring countries have a deep well of anger to draw from."

Decades oppressing palestinian refugees themselves within their own borders, not to mention the oppression of the christian and jewish and other populations has provided them a deep well of nothing however, certainly not compassion.
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Marcus047
given up on HP
06:21 PM on 02/14/2011
"Would it make any sense for a hypothetical Muslim Brotherhood government to pick a fight with a nuclear armed Israel?"

First, you're falsely assuming that religious fanatics are reasonable and make reasonable decisions. Second, you're assuming that Israel would be quick to use nukes, rather than simply as a last resort.
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wom122
Primum non nocere
10:17 PM on 02/14/2011
Israel does not need to use nukes. It already has enough traditional fire power to attack and defeat any combination of regular Arab armies as was amply demonstrated time and again for as long as I can remember. The fact remains, however, that Israel has nukes and can use them.
11:41 PM on 02/14/2011
No..but what does sense have to do with it?
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Marcus047
given up on HP
06:19 PM on 02/14/2011
"the Muslim Brotherhood as having only the support of some 15 to 20 percent of Egyptians"

I didn't realise that a minority couldn't enforce it's will on a majority. Since you've apparently decided this is true, could you please tell the Egyptians that they've been wasting their time for the past 3 weeks, because Mubarak clearly has majority support, and while you're at it, tell the Iranians that they can ignore the ayatollahs, because they have no power over them.