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Scott Mendelson

Scott Mendelson

Posted: June 21, 2010 01:34 AM

Weekend Box Office Review: Toy Story 3 Opens With Massive $110m, Jonah Hex Makes Just $5.3m

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Toy Story 3 ended its first weekend with $110 million, setting a record for Pixar and the month of June. It is the second-biggest opening weekend for an animated film (behind Shrek the Third's $122 million), the fourth-biggest 'part 3' opening weekend, the biggest opening weekend ever in June, and the 10th-biggest opening of all-time. It is far and away the biggest opening weekend in Pixar history (Finding Nemo and The Incredibles both opened with $70 million). Truth be told, I'm a little disappointed in the number, when you factor in the $41 million opening day. When you factor in the usually high multipliers for kids flicks, along with the across-the-board raves from critics and audiences, I honestly expected (or at least was rooting for) a top-five opening weekend. As it is, it is just the third-biggest opening of 2010, behind Iron Man 2 ($128 million) and Alice in Wonderland ($116 million). Family pictures generally have higher weekend multipliers than the norm. But Toy Story 3 had just a 2.68x multiplier, it actually decreased 9% on Saturday to $37 million.

Wall-E ($23 million opening day, $63 million opening weekend). Most ominously, Wall-E also had the lowest weekend-to-final gross multiplier as well, ending up with $223 million domestic (still a rock-solid by any other standard 3.5 times its opening weekend). Still, the film did just pull in $109 million in three days. It beat out the previous Pixar best by 55%. And the fact that it was a heavily-anticipated sequel that opened in the middle of summer vacation is the likely cause for the apparent front-loading. But where it goes from here is an open question. Pixar films generally have legs. So even though the film will lose its IMAX screens to Twilight Saga: Eclipse on Wednesday the 30th, and it will lose many of its 3D screens to The Last Airbender the next day, the film is certainly good enough to be appreciated in whatever size or format it plays in for the rest of the summer. Even if it fails to reach the leggy-heights of Finding Nemo ($339 million/$70 million = 4.84x) or Ratatouille ($206 million/$48 million = 4.38x), we're still talking a strong contender for the year's highest-grossing film. Even if it hits a low-for-Pixar 3.09 multiplier, the picture still does $340 million. So no need to panic yet, the best film of 2010 still has a reasonable shot at becoming the highest-grossing film of 2010. Oh, and for a great look at the theoretically nihilistic themes of the movie, go here.

No such luck is in store for Jonah Hex, which grossed just $5.3 million in its debut weekend. It's the second-worst weekend of the year for a wide-release, behind the $4 million debut of MacGruber. This was clearly a case of Warner Bros giving up, not bothering to market the film that they knew was a disaster, and going for the tax write-off. The two theatrical trailers didn't bother to sell a tone or a hook of any kind. It sold the righteous-violence of Josh Brolin, the murderous-violence of John Malkovich, and the sex appeal of Megan Fox, then edited the picture to a PG-13 thus neutering all three would-be factors. This was clearly a picture that was hurt by last-minute screenings, as even embargoes could not prevent word from slipping out not only regarding the quality, but the fact that the film was just 73 minutes long without credits (they should have sent the picture out without press screenings). Also, Warner miscalculated, trying to make the film into counter-programming against Toy Story 3. But the toys of Pixar appealed to every single plausible demographic, thus there was no one that needed to be catered to. Quality and behind-the-scenes drama aside, Warner should have kept this one in the late-August release date that was originally planned. This one is a tragedy all-around.

For information on holdovers holding, thresholds crossed, and a very large debut in limited release, read the rest of this article at Mendelson's Memos.

 

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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
eilish
Life ain't like a box of chocolates
09:17 PM on 06/21/2010
I just got an email from a friend who has been camping out for 2 days for the June 29 midnight showing of Twilight/Eclipse!

That's just plain nutso!

I wonder how much it's gonna gross, if that's any indication.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Scott Mendelson
Film critic/pundit for Mendelson's Memos, Valley S
11:06 PM on 06/21/2010
The early buzz says it's the best of the three films thus far, and the last trailer seems to promise a meatier, more epic experience this time around. If it was opening on a Friday, it'd have a shot at the $158 million 3-day weekend record set by The Dark Knight. But since it's opening on a Wednesday, it's gunning for the $203 million 5-day record set by The Dark Knight.
07:29 PM on 06/21/2010
How many parents are going to take their kids to see Megan Fox?
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Scott Mendelson
Film critic/pundit for Mendelson's Memos, Valley S
11:06 PM on 06/21/2010
The same parents who took their kids to Transformers and Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.
11:45 PM on 06/21/2010
I'm not so sure parents took their kids to see Transformers. I know parents took their kids to see Toy Story. Different group of kids.
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05:22 PM on 06/21/2010
I was looking forward to 'Jonah Hex,' but held off after the reviews from people I know started pouring in (and I was already hesitant because of Megan Fox, whose talent for emotive acting is second only to Kevin Costner's).

Hollywood wrecks another good comic franchise. Crap.
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HUFFPOST BLOGGER
Scott Mendelson
Film critic/pundit for Mendelson's Memos, Valley S
11:07 PM on 06/21/2010
Fox is barely in the movie (about 10 minutes), but she actually gives a fuller, more lived-in performance that John Malkovich, who seems to be doing as little as possible to earn his paycheck. Let's hope I never have to type the sentence "Megan Fox gives a better performance than John Malkovich" ever again, but there you have it.
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Deb Mac
03:19 PM on 06/21/2010
Message to Hollywood... stop scouring the dregs of the comic book world looking more grist for the worn out mill. This endless parade of stupid you seem so hellbent on foisting on us every year has become tiresome. Who the heck ever heard of Jonah Hex??? And looky there, you couldn't even scare up enough 14-year-old boys to make double digits. Pathetic.
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Milash
It says I should edit my micro-bio, so I did.
02:52 PM on 06/21/2010
I guess Hollywood is less about movies and more about dollars. Too bad.
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fopplssiegeparty
03:40 PM on 06/21/2010
It's been that way since the beginning. Film is not an art, it is a craft.
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Milash
It says I should edit my micro-bio, so I did.
04:32 PM on 06/21/2010
Its been that way for awhile, but I think nowdays, its more cut throat than ever before.
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
WRPrintz
Your Micro-bio is empty.
02:23 PM on 06/21/2010
As pointed out in an earlier post...I think Ticket Numbers still mean more as an important stat than Cash brought in the door when you are talking about how many back ends you can put in seats. As prices continue to rise, projecting what you can earn based on future price seems the more fair set of numbers to me.

BTW- This is not some GWTW sold 40billion more times that ET rant- The market has changed, and will continue to change, but the fixation on the highest dollar amount (while an industry standard)...is only part of the story. (not implying that you should stop...just broaden it if possible.)
01:14 PM on 06/21/2010
What about ticket sales numbers compares to the other films. Prices are up since the time of the other movies, so was this movie REALLY second largest for an animated film and 1st for June or is it just that the prices are higher?
07:52 AM on 06/21/2010
LOL at Scott fretting over dollar numbers and multipliers for the #1 film, as if the general public really cares about such inconsequential horse races.
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Scott Mendelson
Film critic/pundit for Mendelson's Memos, Valley S
11:01 AM on 06/21/2010
First of all, it's not inconsequential. The box office numbers determine what movies get made and who does and doesn't get work in the industry. Second of all, if you don't want to read fretting over multipliers and the like, don't read a box office analysis column. DO you troll sports posts and mock them for comparing scores and ERA stats?
07:08 PM on 06/21/2010
As a fan of good films, but ALSO being a film geek who is quite interested in various aspects of the business, I find Scott's box office analysis quite interesting...so don't claim to speak for everyone.
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cqyates
03:05 AM on 06/21/2010
I never go to the Movies but we took my two sons and their two cousins on Saturday. It was awesome and everything you would expect from the franchise. I look forward to buying the DVD over and over again as my kids watch the movie more than 2,.000 times.

I'm hooked I have two Buzz Lightyear super fans, every bday party, every halloween my little Buzz and Woody come out to play.