Just ten years ago next weekend, we saw pundits studio executives hand-wringing over the 'mere' $75 million four-day gross of Michael Bay's
Pearl Harbor
. For some reason (oh, it's a three-hour period love story... it's EXACTLY like
Titanic
!!), studio executives were expecting a $100 million four-day total. Nevermind that such a number had never been achieved before. As
, 2001 was the year that opening weekends went crazy, where $50 million became the new $35 million and $60 million became the new $40 million. In the last nine years (starting in May 2002 of course), we've had 25 films with $100 million+ four-day totals and 18 films with $100 million+ three-day totals. I bring this up because once again we are faced with a Disney blockbuster that is fighting off the assumption of failure because its opening weekend didn't approach record levels. For the record,
opened with $90 million this weekend. That may not be as huge as the last two sequels, but it's a fine haul for a franchise that pretty much everyone agrees is washed up. Let this be a lesson to Disney's Chuck Viane (
): it's your job to LOWER expectations, not inflate them!
The film pulled a decent 2.57x weekend multiplier, with strong kid-driven matinée business leading the way. It scored a B+ from Cinemascore, implying that movigoers have little-to-no standards. The film grossed 5.1% of its weekend take from midnight screenings, which is basically the general norm these days. Obviously the film opened far less than the last two films, which both opened to record numbers. Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest opened with $135 million in July 2006, breaking the three-day record at the time. In May 2007, Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End grossed $153 million in 4.25 days (it had $13 million worth of Thursday evening sneaks), and its $114 million Fri-Sun haul is still the highest for a film not opening on standalone Fri-Sun weekend. When you figure in inflation and the IMAX/3D ticket-price bump, On Stranger Tides had significantly lower audience attendance than the last two sequels, or just over half as many tickets sold as the first sequel. Speaking purely for domestic figures, the likely scenario is similar to last year's Shrek: the Final Chapter, which also opened far lower than its predecessors but had a surprisingly strong hold. A similar 3.3 weekend-to-final multiplier would give Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides a $304 million domestic finish, or about what the first and third films ended up with.
Worst case scenario? Well, the movie is terrible and there are no moments that merit repeat business, and Shrek had a pretty weak Memorial Day slate to compete with (Prince of Persia and Sex and the City 2) and a nearly empty third weekend. Pirates 4 has the one-two punch of the dynamite Kung Fu Panda 2 and yet unseen The Hangover II, plus the opening of X-Men: First Class on June 3rd. So the 2.7 weekend-to-final multiplier of Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End seems more likely, giving the new film a domestic finish of $244 million. Considering that Disney was basically selling nothing more than 'Jack Sparrow is back again', and basically advertising that it was offering a cheaper movie at a more expensive ticket price (the film played in 66% 3D engagements, yet only 44% of the tickets were 3D), they are lucky they opened as well as they did.
Still, as has been the case over the last few years, overseas numbers are carrying the day. The fourth Pirates of the Caribbean film has already grossed another $256 million in overseas dollars (which is a record for overseas openings), giving the film a near-record $345 million worldwide total opening weekend (Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince had a $393 million worldwide opening two years ago). So really, let's just move on to a movie whose domestic box office actually matters... Bridesmaids had an incredible second-weekend hold, dropping just 20% for a $21 million second weekend and a $59 million ten day total. That's a smaller drop than The Hangover (-27% in weekend two), The 40 Year Old Virgin (-24%), American Pie (-27%), and The Wedding Crashers (-24%). Unless I'm forgetting something, you have to go back nearly thirteen years for a similar situation, where the R-rated There's Something About Mary dropped just 8% in weekend two. It's too soon to predict that the Kristen Wiig vehicle will come close to the $175 million total of that Cameron Diaz sensation, but it pretty much guarantees that the funniest film of 2011 will make it to $100 million. The big test of course will be how it fares against The Hangover II, which opens Thursday.
It also leapfrogged over Thor during the week, something it again achieved this weekend. Still, weep not for the God of Thunder, as Thor grossed $15.5 million in its second weekend and ended its third weekend with a solid $145 million. It's already grossed $392 million worldwide. Fast Five now sits at $186 million domestic, and it crossed the $500 million mark worldwide. The Beaver expanded to 168 theaters but was DOA, with a $190,000 take for a mere $582,000 domestic total. The other major story this weekend was the scorching limited debut of Woody Allen's Midnight In Paris. The film opened on six screens, and grossed a jaw-dropping $96,000 per screen. That is indeed Allen's best limited debut ever. It's also the fifteenth-biggest per-screen average ever, the fifth biggest for anything on more than two screens, and the fifth biggest per-screen average for a live-action film. Wow...
That's it for this weekend. Join us over Memorial Day, when Paramount/Dreamworks unleashes Kung Fu Panda 2 and Warner Bros releases The Hangover 2 (review Wed night/Thurs morning). Until then, take care, keep reading and commenting.
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
It's Another Trump-Biden Showdown — And We Need Your Help
The Future Of Democracy Is At Stake
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
Your Loyalty Means The World To Us
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
The 2024 election is heating up, and women's rights, health care, voting rights, and the very future of democracy are all at stake. Donald Trump will face Joe Biden in the most consequential vote of our time. And HuffPost will be there, covering every twist and turn. America's future hangs in the balance. Would you consider contributing to support our journalism and keep it free for all during this critical season?
HuffPost believes news should be accessible to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay for it. We rely on readers like you to help fund our work. Any contribution you can make — even as little as $2 — goes directly toward supporting the impactful journalism that we will continue to produce this year. Thank you for being part of our story.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
It's official: Donald Trump will face Joe Biden this fall in the presidential election. As we face the most consequential presidential election of our time, HuffPost is committed to bringing you up-to-date, accurate news about the 2024 race. While other outlets have retreated behind paywalls, you can trust our news will stay free.
But we can't do it without your help. Reader funding is one of the key ways we support our newsroom. Would you consider making a donation to help fund our news during this critical time? Your contributions are vital to supporting a free press.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our journalism free and accessible to all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. Would you consider becoming a regular HuffPost contributor?
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. If circumstances have changed since you last contributed, we hope you'll consider contributing to HuffPost once more.
Support HuffPostAlready contributed? Log in to hide these messages.