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Scott Paul

Scott Paul

Posted: March 9, 2011 10:27 AM

If Gary Locke Goes To China...


Our new man in China, Gary Locke, will have a big, bilateral economic mess to help clean up. The United States posted a record $273 billion trade deficit with China last year. China continues to slow-walk the Yuan's appreciation against the dollar. And, China shows few signs of easing up on its mercantilist and protectionist policies that help to keep our export outs, and give Chinese production an unfair advantage in our market and others around the world.

Secretary Locke -- announced by the president today to become our next ambassador to China if confirmed by the Senate -- compiled a pretty good record at the Commerce Department on these issues. The Administration stepped up trade enforcement to a degree we have not seen for 25 years, including landmark cases on Chinese tires and clean technology products. But, the Commerce Department refused to consider China's currency manipulation as an unfair subsidy, which has prompted Congress to consider stepping in.

The mess that Ambassador Locke would need to clean up has been decades in the making. President Clinton's team negotiated an exceptionally weak deal as China entered the World Trade Organization. The U.S. agreed to lower tariffs on Chinese products, end its annual trade-linked review of China's human rights record, and diminish many of our trade enforcement options. In effect, the deal tied America's hands even as China's economic power -- and mercantilism -- expanded.

President George W. Bush, with a mounting Chinese trade deficit, denied every single petition for relief from Chinese import surges filed by American industry. So, for the first eight years after entry into the rules-based trading system, China wasn't asked to follow the rules. Cheating became endemic.

Meanwhile, we've been asleep at the switch. China's strategy has cost American jobs up and down the technology ladder. China will file more patents this year than America. China may, in fact, pass the U.S. to become the world's top manufacturing nation this year; it is a title we have held for 110 years running. China now has the world's fastest supercomputer and $2.78 trillion in foreign currency reserves.

When China is not playing by the rules, we must call them on it, through aggressive trade enforcement and clearly defined consequences for Beijing if it does not revalue its currency in a meaningful way. We must be careful not to enrich the regime in China any further, which means lowering our staggering trade deficit with China. If China refuses to honor its commitments, we should consider, as Paul Krugman suggests, erecting a steep, unilateral tariff until China does comply. Ultimately, China needs access to the U.S. market more than we need China's debt financing.

Can Secretary Locke deliver this message forcefully to Beijing? I think he can, if he's given that card to play by the White House. But that's a pretty big if. The record $273 billion trade deficit with China should have been a wake-up call that things must change.

 

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Our new man in China, Gary Locke, will have a big, bilateral economic mess to help clean up. The United States posted a record $273 billion trade deficit with China last year. China continues to slo...
Our new man in China, Gary Locke, will have a big, bilateral economic mess to help clean up. The United States posted a record $273 billion trade deficit with China last year. China continues to slo...
 
 
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02:27 PM on 03/12/2011
"Locke's "Do as I Say, Not as I Do" record makes him a good fit for the ethically impaired Obama administration. Hope and Change" is just another synonym for "Screw up, Move Up."
04:05 PM on 03/30/2011
The screw up in America is more due to the truly ethically impaired Bush-Cheney regime which the ethically neutered American people voted into office twice. Nice try to blame Obama on this. In truth America has only itself to blame for the mess the country is in right now. The sooner we realize this and stop passing the blame onto Obama, Mexicans, Arabs and Chinese the sooner we can start solving problems. Ah but I feel the dull roar of denial coming my way.....
02:12 PM on 03/10/2011
Like he cleaned-up Washington State ?

Next !
04:06 AM on 03/10/2011
Locke is in a no-win position. He has already openly declared that he will be "All American", implying that he will have to conduct himself to dispel any suggestion that his Chinese ethnicity will lead him to do anything the could be interpreted as favoring the nation of his ancestors. That is a tough row to hoe.

Besides, it is clear that Washington's only real "solution" contemplated is to dilute the insurmountable debts by very deep further devaluation of the greenback. So for the decade to come, trade conflicts will flare up all over the globe. Locke cannot be a miracle worker.
01:33 PM on 03/09/2011
If the remedies demanded by you had any validity don't you think they would have been used long ago when the US was still king of the hill? The US played the global grand strategy game poorly by unilaterally going to war under false pretenses and thereby lost for good the goodwill and respect of the rest of the world. Then you let Wall Street destroy your financial system and burden you with unpayable debts. The US will survive this double whammy but in a much weakened state.

You have no leverage against China, none that will not harm you more than China if applied. Ambassador Gary Locke goes to China with oodles of goodwill as he is ethnic Chinese. We Chinese are extremely proud of his achievements. Let him draw on this goodwill to work out Sino-US trade and currency issues to the best of his ability. You will not get all of what you want. But you will get a lot more than if some other negotiator tried the same talks. China will want to make Ambassador Locke look good. China also seeks a way to ease the unhappiness Americans feel on trade and currency issues without appearing to fold under pressure for little gain in return. Ambassador Locke will unlock many doors into China.
12:36 PM on 03/09/2011
The Republican controlled Congress is too busy demonizing teachers and other public employees to pay attention to China's currency manipulation and human rights abuses.

Meanwhile China is nurturing its teachers, scientists and innovators.