Strategy topic of the week: is it too early in the season to drop star players who've gotten off to a slow start?
What do Michael Vick, Chris Johnson, DeSean Jackson, and Antonio Gates have in common? Chances are that if you drafted any of them for your fantasy football team you've been disappointed with their results through the first two weeks of the season.
How should you react? Is it better to hold on to players with a proven track record and hope they'll improve, or should you speculate on a lesser-known player who is off to a better start?
Generally, I would advise against dropping or trading a player who has performed well previously but is off to a rough start. It's easy to draw the analogy between the performance of football players who've been fantasy stars in the recent past and the performance of blue-chip stocks and conclude that you're better off following a buy-and-hold strategy with your fantasy stars (barring a serious injury, of course). However, there are a number of factors you should consider before making your decision whether to hit the "drop" button.
Have there been any significant changes since last season that could be affecting the player's performance? If a receiver is playing with a new quarterback, or a quarterback is working with a new offensive coordinator, or a running back is playing behind an offensive line that's been rebuilt, there may be a logical reason for a slow start.
Has the player suffered an injury, or are there other extenuating circumstances? Three of the four players listed above (Vick, Johnson, and Gates) have suffered injuries already, which could easily explain their performance thus far. Johnson also staged a much-publicized preseason holdout in a contract dispute that wasn't resolved until shortly before the regular season began, costing him valuable practice time during training camp.
Is the player performing significantly worse than the rest of his team? Let's take Johnson as an example again. Both he and his team performed poorly in an opening week loss to Jacksonville. Last week the Titans played much better as a team and upset the Ravens, but Johnson managed just 53 yards on 24 carries. Still, it's more than likely that Johnson will improve as he regains his stamina (and his ribs heal).
What other options do you have to replace the disappointing player? If you have a player on your bench who's been a pleasant surprise (think Ben Tate), then replacing your star running back for a game, especially if he has an unfavorable matchup this week, may be a better move than dropping the underachieving player outright. Explore the trade market too in order to get a sense of how your fellow league owners value the player.
Are there any other players who could conceivably take the disappointing player's job away (barring injury)? Taking a look at the four players used as examples above, the answer is "definitely not". Javon Ringer is a capable backup to Johnson, and he may receive more carries this season than he has in the past as he improves and the Titans seek to keep Johnson fresh and healthy. Still, the difference in talent levels is significant enough that Johnson will continue to receive the bulk of his team's rushing opportunities going forward.
Next time I'll address this same question for injured players.
Food for thought
Q: Should I start Arian Foster if he plays this week?
A: No, for three reasons. (1) It was apparent when Foster attempted to play last week that his hamstring was not yet recovered. Expect the Texans to proceed cautiously with him in hopes of having him available later in the season. (2) Ben Tate has shown that he's a capable substitute in Foster's absence, which gives the team even less incentive to rush Foster back. (3) The Houston-New Orleans game this weekend figures to be a shootout, which suggests that the Texans will rely more heavily than usual on their passing game in an effort to match scores with the prolific Saints' offense.
Q: Cam Newton and Andy Dalton are the two rookie quarterbacks who've started games so far this season, and both have done well. Should I start Jacksonville rookie quarterback Blaine Gabbert this week in his debut?
A: No. Newton and Dalton both have several other players on their offense who are capable of making big plays. With Jacksonville's Marcedes Lewis injured the only player capable of sharing the offensive burden with Gabbert is running back Maurice Jones-Drew. That's not enough of a supporting cast to feel confident in starting Gabbert.
Q: Are Chris Cooley's days as a starting fantasy tight end over?
A: Yes. There's now more depth than there has been in years at the tight end position, so there's no need to start a player who may not even be the best option at tight end on his own team any more (that would be Fred Davis).
Players you'll wish you hadn't started this week
QB: Eli Manning (@Philadelphia), Josh Freeman (vs. Atlanta), Colt McCoy (vs. Miami)
RB: Reggie Bush (@Cleveland), Brandon Jacobs (@Philadelphia), LeGarrette Blount (vs. Atlanta)
WR: Michael Crabtree (@Cincinnati), Austin Collie (vs. Pittsburgh), Steve Breaston (@San Diego)
TE: Dallas Clark (vs. Pittsburgh), Chris Cooley (@Dallas), Brandon Pettigrew (@Minnesota)
DEF: Buffalo (vs. New England), New York Giants (@Philadelphia), Chicago (vs. Green Bay)
Players you'll wish you had started this week
QB: Andy Dalton (vs. San Francisco), Chad Henne (@Cleveland), Kyle Orton (@Tennessee)
RB: James Starks (@Chicago), Ben Tate (@New Orleans), Daniel Thomas (@Cleveland)
WR: Brandon LaFell (vs. Jacksonville), Eric Decker (@Tennessee), Preston Parker (vs. Atlanta)
TE: Fred Davis (@Dallas), Zach Miller [Sea] (vs. Arizona) , Zach Miller [Jac] (@Carolina)
DEF: Arizona (@Seattle), Cincinnati (vs. San Francisco), Carolina (vs. Jacksonville)