Charlie Crist Is Not Guaranteed Florida's Senate Seat

{First, a cheap plug for my blog Senate Guru.}

Both Politico and the Miami Herald are reporting that Republican Gov. Charlie Crist will announce on Tuesday that he will be a candidate for Senate in 2010 for the seat from which unpopular Republican Mel Martinez is retiring.

This could very well be a case for Republicans of the old adage "Be careful what you wish for." Crist currently enjoys strong poll numbers:

Republican Primary Poll Quinnipiac 4/16/09 Gov. Charlie Crist 54 Rep. Vern Buchanan 8 Fmr. Speaker Marco Rubio 8 Fmr. Speaker Allan Bense 2 Undecided 25

General Election Poll Match-ups: Crist v. Dems Strategic Vision 2/12/09 Crist 57, Tampa Mayor Pam Iorio 29 Crist 58, State Senator Dan Gelber 27 Crist 58, Rep. Ron Klein 24 Crist 60, Rep. Kendrick Meek 26

These numbers, which look insurmountable at first glance, do not accurately reflect the story moving forward. As has been mentioned before, there is growing discontent with Crist among conservatives. Nationally, the conservative Weekly Standard is promoting Crist's primary challenger, former state House Speaker Marco Rubio, as the Republican Obama; also, the conservative Club for Growth has already started a cheering section for Rubio against Crist:

But Rubio could also pick up some powerful supporters in the primary. Following his announcement Tuesday, the anti-tax Club for Growth, which is known for its ability to drive fundraising for candidates it supports, released a statement praising Rubio's entry into the race.

Rubio's "fiscally responsible, pro-growth approach in the State Capitol stands in stark contrast with other elements of the state government, led by Charlie Crist," club President Chris Chocola said.

Meanwhile, within the state borders of Florida, conservatives are downright displeased with what they see as Crist being not conservative enough:

Florida Republican Party circles are hearing increasing talk of conservative dissatisfaction with Gov. Charlie Crist and a possible primary challenge if he runs for the U.S. Senate next year. ...

Some conservatives, never happy with Crist's emphasis on racial diversity, environmental regulation and populist willingness to take on big business, are now saying it openly.

Rubio is already fomenting this sentiment with direct shots at Crist:

"If you agree with Susan Collins or Olympia Snowe on some of these issues, you might as well become a Democrat,'' said former Florida House Speaker Marco Rubio, a Republican who is likely to run for the Senate, whether or not Crist does.

Rubio also potentially has a big arrow in his FL-GOP quiver: former Gov. Jeb Bush. Rubio is a Bush protege and it has been rumored that Bush might even endorse Rubio over Crist. Jeb Bush's son, George P. Bush, has not been short on criticism of Crist:

Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is only a "light" version of a Democrat, former Gov. Jeb Bush's (R) son claimed Saturday.

"There's some in our party that want to assume that government is the answer to all of our problems," Bush said at a meeting of young Republicans, as reported by the Orlando News. "You know who I'm talking about," he added, referencing Crist.

After the speech, Bush said Crist is perhaps becoming more of a "D light" politician, not adequately in line with Republican politics.

Expect Rubio v. Crist to be a much closer contest than most expect. As a result, even if Crist emerges with the Republican nomination, it will come at the end of a bruising and costly battle. And Democrats are ready with a line of attack against Crist should he become the GOP nominee. Crist is bolting from the Governor's office after only one term (and plenty of days off), and leaving Florida's budgetary well-being in far worse shape than he found it - the focus of the DSCC's first ad buy of the 2010 cycle:

Awaiting candidate Crist is a divisive, damaging, and expensive primary against a more conservative opponent, following by a general election against a Democratic Party ready to pounce that is led by an extremely popular President. Crist's numbers may look good right now, but there is every reason to expect troubles ahead for Crist.

Comments

[marysandra]

Charlie Crist has been a complete lightweight governor..I don't know who he appeals to..The good ol' boys up in Talahassee who run the Legislature have hung most of the urban areas of Fl. out to dry.
They are only interested in the redneck/Limbaugh voters. I think they all wish So. Fl. would break off from the peninsula and become its' own island..Little do they realize that urban Fl. is the tail wagging the dog of the rest of the State. They seem to forget who carried the State in the recent presidential election..They are politically over and should go back to their cabbage farms and sugar fields, and take Crist with them.

[Voyager 7]

If you get the chance, go see "Outrage".

[stonelaw]

Crist can't possibly be gay! First, he's a Republican. Second, he says he's not and as a Republican, you can pretty much take that promise to the bank. Third, I beieve he has a family - kids and stuff.

Crist isn''t any more gay than . . . well, Wide Stance Larry.

[Dolmance]

Unless Crist is found with a boy in his bed, you can be sure the Republicans will act as if nothing is amiss. Because they're all born with a sense of entitlement that makes it impossible for them to engage in anything approaching serious self examination or evaluation.

The Republicans consider gay sex between Democrats as being a subversive lifestyle choice, whereas a Republican having gay sex is simply a case of temporary incontinent behavior caused by a stressful situation, and thus worthy of sympathy and support.

[AgnesBankhead]

and anyways, nothing that can be easily forgiven at church on sunday,
leaving a clean slate on which to write the "sins" of the next six days --
as Churchlady famously observed "HOW CONVEEEEEENIENT !!! " .........

[AgnesBankhead]

correction: CANNOT
(depending on which personal Jesus you happen to be relying on)

[zest]

In 2010 Florida will have a Democrate govenor and two Democrate senators.

[AgnesBankhead]

Charlie Crist, has just been “outed” in the independent documentary “Outrage”, which opened in theaters last week, along with other gay republicans who have mercilessly and hypocritically participated in the persecution of gay and lesbian Americans and the denial of their rights

so when you read that former Gov. Jeb Bush's (R) son claimed Saturday that Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is only a "light" (a coded reference to gay men being "light in the loafers") version of a Democrat and that Republicans are saying that Crist is "not conservative enough", what they are really admitting is that Crist's marriage isn't fooling anyone and that he is damaged goods

[backinstolaf]

I really think Rubio is going to outprimary Crist - especially if the movie Outraged is drudged up and negatively affects Crist. He is one of the Republican's they profile in the movie. Should that happen, I think Meek (who I do not think will have a primary opponent) will win the election.

[wilinot]

I live in Florida, and I am a Dem. But Charlie Christ has done some good things that have made me believe he is the gov. for all the people, not just repubs. And Marco Rubio is just another smooth talking Republican. I would certainly vote for Christ over Rubio. And you are right - wish he would switch to Dem.

[WinterParkMom]

What area of Florida do you live in, because seriously, Crist has done Nothing for Florida except to continue its slide toward obscurity started by Jeb Bush. We do not want him as a Dem or a repub. He is hypocritical and has done things for political expediency, for example:
putting the property tax amendment on the ballot against protests from teachers and law enforcement. Now they are losing their jobs by the thousands and he has said NOTHING about this.
He did not support the light rail project.
Against his republican,conservative principles, he supported the stimulus (I support it, but I should) to engage a little good will from Floridians for 2010.

[Gatorgal]

Please, please tell me what good thinks Crist has done for FL. I have lived here since 1952 and have seen quite a few light-wieght governors and some great governors but this guy takes the cake. FL is below BELOW Mississippi and South Carolina in all education standards. We are the bottom of the barrel. FL has the lowest salaries paid to public employees and guess whose salaries were cut by this idiot and his cohorts in the Legislature. He cut taxes promising there would be no shortfall - hah. He screwed up the insurance industry so that we, the few Floridians who still pay state taxes, will have an unimaginable debt if we have another major hurricane.

This guy does nothing except run for office, after office. Good riddance to him, hope he goes to DC and continues on his "pragamatic" course. Which, of course, is only pragmatic if it helps Charlie. As for whether or not he is gay, ask anyone who lives in Tallahassee.

[cblcar]

Crist should switch parties and run as a Democrat.

[OverIt]

Why should we get stuck with these losers who are being run out of office when there are true progressives in our own party who can take our country forward?

[WinterParkMom]

Where do these poll numbers come from? I'm in the northwest orlando area and work on the east side. I nor anyone I know has ever been polled on Charlie Crist, and if we were, those numbers would look a whole lot different.

Crist caved to the conservatives and got a space on the ballot to lower property taxes against appeals from teachers and law enforcement. Guess who benefited? Not me. Crist ignored them.
His henchmen in Tallahassee shot down light rail even though studies have shown that widening I4 will not relieve congestion.
Thousands of teachers have lost their jobs and schools being closed because, guess what? The first thing republicans in Fl cut is education. Maybe thats why were 51 out of 50.
Crist has done nothing about the stupid fcat system, which doesn't work and needs a serious overhaul.
I've sent him a letter with some suggestions on our infrastructure and education. Have never received a response, but guess who I'm getting nice fundraising emails from?

Florida voters, join me to take back our state!!!!! We can suffer no longer. We must vote them all out next year.

[Mugzi]

Really...I'm in central Florida also and Charlie is a joke. You should here what people call him,
"empty suit", "mister on vacation", "whichever way the wind blows"..and there is more. He spent $500K on a "pre honeymoon" in July 08 and a state that denys glasses to the disabled, that's atrocious! No Charlie will not get my vote so his wife can be in the WDC social scene - not for any reason. Check out Alex Sink CFO. I really hope she runs for Gov. She is a very bright lady who did manage to get some programs through for children, the elderly this last session.

[wilinot]

WinterParkMom, I live in Destin, Fl. do you have a Dem. in mind because I do agree with you on the property tax deal. I thought it was stupid to do and now look at where we are because of it. My only thought concerning this post was that I would sooner vote for Christ than Rubio - Rubio is far worse in my mind.

[WinterParkMom]

I couldn't care less on the repub side, but i think Wasserman-Shultz stands a very good chance against any repub, she really increased her profile during the campaign and is very pro-dem agenda. Not one of those so called centrist dems. I hope she runs.

Charlie needs to be sent back to chocolate mountain asap.

[TommyMcCarthy]

"Guru" Describes a scenario which, happily,......... I expect to see repeated over and over again during the next election cycle particularly in the south.

For purposes of discussion, we can think of Crist, the sitting Governor, as an incumbent.

Hopefully, the process, should work something like this.....

1:) Incumbent Republican recieves VIGOROUS primary challenge from the right.

2:) With small variations in local flavor, the top issue in these primary campaigns is always the same:
Is the incumbent a REAL republican??..........
i.e. is s/he sufficiently..... homophobic, xenophobic, racist, Godfearin', gunlovin' , and women/minority/immigrant/pointy-headed-intellectual/ and most of all Obama HATIN' enough to proudly wear the scarlet "R"????

3:) As a function of this framing, incumbent either LOSES to yay-hoo challenger, or at minnimum, is forced during the primary to stake out positions far, FAR to the right of the electorate he must face in November......cedeing the seat to any Democrat with a pulse!........delightful thought!!

It is this scenario that Arlen Specter took one look at and decided he wanted no part of......so, hopefully we can expect some more officeholders not yet ready to retire to abandon the Republican ship for the warm welcoming waters of the Democratic sea.

It's been a source of great delight to observe the Republican RATS begin tearing each other to pieces as the ship sinks....

Regards
tm

[Feesister]

I'm becoming a big fan of "Club for Growth." They back the ultra-conservative candidate, defeating the moderate Republican in the primary. Then, the Democratic candidate cruises into victory in the general election. Hey, Club for Growth, keep up the good work!

[Openeyes]

I agree.

They "club" any Republican who is not ultraconservative to death in the primary, providing "growth" for the Dem who wins the general election.

Where do I donate?

[chocolatecity]

Christ might pull a Specter and run as a democrat. I don't think moderates like him can win republican primaries anymore.

[M W]

Nowhere in this analysis is campaign fund-raising discussed;Governor Crist's wife will add an important factor.

I am a Floridian Democratic Party member and understand the Governor's crossover appeal in this statewide election; he has won statewide twice before. Crist was a Florida state senator, Attorney General, and Education Commissioner.

Limbaugh appeals to the non voting, North Florida mouth breathers and elderly Cubans.

[lovable]

limbaugh will not allow crist to win. crist is too inclusive. limbaugh want the party non inclusive meaning no blacks allowed