Dilma Rousseff is a disaster, that's a fact. She will have her name inscribed among the most mediocre presidents in Brazil's history. But there are two things that concern me about the idea of her impeachment.
First of all, the process by which it's being done. It's true that there are genuine reasons, such as her government's violation of the Fiscal Responsibility Law. But it is quite disturbing, as well as worrisome, to know that her fate will not be the result of the natural operation of our institutional machinery. What's happening right now is the product of a personal vendetta caused by a failed plot between the president and the leader of Congress. Everything will be too discretionary. And I'm not a fan of the idea that the ends justify the means.
Second, and maybe more importantly, an impeachment will prevent us from learning an important lesson. The impeachment may pin the current state of misery, and the dire economic and institutional mess, solely on ideas sponsored by the Worker's Party (PT). (Some people still believe that the crisis is the result of a fiscal adjustment that never existed, not the heavy hand of government in various markets.)
It is true that keeping Rousseff in office would be extremely costly for Brazilian society, especially for those who government supporters say they want to help -- the poorest.
It would be an acceptable price to pay, though, in that it would convince many that the state's tampering with the economy is harmful. This would help major parties to reform their programs and embrace the idea that Brazil needs less state control and a more open market. The best way to support this would be with empirical evidence -- similar to what happened with the British Labour Party in the '90s.
The importance of this lesson shouldn't be underestimated: it may show us the reason we've been stuck in the trap of middle-income, and how to overcome our underdevelopment.
Dilma's departure could give a boost to an economy battered with expectations. But perhaps we are being short-sighted, and we're not seeing the importance of learning once and for all the price of populism and economic heterodoxy.
I hope I'm wrong, but I suspect that state guidance might come back to Brazil in the near future, as it did during the military dictatorship with General Ernesto Geisel.
This post first appeared on HuffPost Brazil and has been translated into English.