All of McCain's Base Belongs to Us: Why It Won't Even Be Close

It's over.

It's mathematically impossible for John McCain to win.

Were the great Tim Russert still with us, he would call the election for Obama at 7pm Eastern time. No, I'm not talking about November 4th -- I mean tonight.

Here we are in the present -- an electric casserole of breaking news ("Obama wears flag pin!"), Internet warfare ("lol McCain is teh oldz!"), and screaming gas bags who are terrified of women ("We'll do it LIVE!"). The MSM is trying to convince us that we're in for a twelve-round brawl. That McCain's going to give Obama a run for his $500M. That's all well and good, and I'm sure it'll make for some riveting television -- if you're the type of person who still watches Harlem Globetrotters games on the edge of your seat, convinced the Washington Generals will pull this one out.

But the truth is, it's not going to be close. Not even a little bit.

Imagine yourself in a high school history class a century from now. Imagine the teacher beginning the section on the elections of 2008 by setting the scene: "America's economy was in flames, we were fighting two wars with no end in sight, and global warming was accelerating at an alarming rate. The most despised president in 150 years was nearing the end of his two corruption-ridden terms, and had heartily endorsed his successor, John McCain -- who, despite a few ideological differences, planned on keeping the status quo intact. Running against him was a lightning-in-a-bottle candidate named Barack Obama. A candidate who had nearly six times the money to spend, drew crowds of 70,000, and who received support from a surprising number of disenfranchised Republicans -- even some of the Evangelicals who swept Bush to power. Obama was the story. He captured the imagination of young Americans and the world. Now, by a show of hands -- who thinks McCain won that election?" (A particularly easy question, since they're sitting in Barack Obama High).

Whatever you think about McCain -- whether you love him or hate him -- you can't deny that he's a victim of horrible timing. Everywhere you look, there are tidal forces -- geopolitical, economic, and social forces -- trending in Obama's favor. McCain is running on a war record in a country aching for peace. He's running on an admitted lack of economic knowledge in a country aching for economic reform. Healthcare, foreign policy, energy -- in each case his sales pitch is twenty years behind the curve, much like the declining party for which he has the unfortunate honor of being standard bearer. Worst of all, his base doesn't even like him. Sure, they might pull that lever, but they'll be holding their noses with the other hand. If Obama's base is "fired up and ready to go," McCain's base is more like "reheated and I'll get around to it."

All McCain's base are belong to us.

Call it whatever you want: arrogance, a jinx -- but let's be honest with ourselves -- this thing is over. I know, I know. "A lot can happen between now and November." I know that we Democrats are used to scurrying around like we're on Meerkat Manor, with a sky full of Neocon hawks overhead. I know that we've perfected the art of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. But can't you feel it in the smog-kissed air? Feel that this year is different? This year, we've got a candidate who refuses to cower in the face of the old Rove/Atwater/Dobson line of attack. A candidate who understands that you can't change the world unless you win, and that you don't have to sell your soul to do it. And despite some bruises, we've got a Democratic Party on its way toward unprecedented unity and energy.

I don't care if footage of Obama snorting coke off Scarlett Johansson's boobs surfaces in late October. All it will do is bolster his standing with white males. I don't care if McCain is introduced by a resurrected Jesus Christ at the convention. All it will do is piss off Joe Lieberman. McCain won't just be defeated, he'll be crushed. And not just Bob Dole crushed, but crushed in a way that redefines the political map for the next 25 years.

He'll be crushed so decidedly, that bartenders will coin a new drink called "The McCrush" -- vodka and Orange Crush over crushed ice, served in a hollow flip-flop with a sprig of pandering. The networks will switch over to infomercials at 10pm on Election Night, because they'll have nothing left to cover after Obama's victory speech. Webster's will add the word "McCained" to its thesaurus entry for "crushed." Gamers will start taunting each other with new words like "Obampwnd!" and "McNoob!." Somewhere, out there in the everlasting ether of death, Barry Goldwater will feel better about himself.

Jinx or no jinx, I'm not going to be a Meerkat Democrat -- not this year. This year, I'm celebrating the Fourth with some burgers, some fireworks, and a nice, cool McCrush.

This year I'm the friggin' hawk.

Seth Grahame-Smith is the author of Pardon My President: Ready-to-Mail Apologies for Eight Years of George W. Bush

Comments

[wbramh]

This week, I extracted the 2004 Bush/ Kerry percentages against the most current major polls as compiled by Electoral-Vote.com. I used 10 of the Whitest and Reddest States in the Union as my sample. The States chosen were Oklahoma, Kansas,Nebraska, Wyoming, North Dakota, South Dakota, Montana, Idaho, Alaska and Utah. The polling numbers were lifted on July 4th.
Bush won these States by an average of 30.7 percent in 2004 - McCain is leading in these same States by an average of just 10.7 percent - a 20% shift! This election shaping up as an Obama Tsunami in the Popular vote.
If the current numbers hold in these States, only Montana's 3 Electoral votes will have moved to the Blue column, which brings to mind one last scary scenario. If McCain manages to hold on to the Electoral votes in these States along with his share of Swing States like Florida, he may be able to keep the Electoral vote competitive and the election results in doubt all night. Imagine the Election once again coming down to Ohio while the Popular vote shows Obama at 60%.
Now that could get ugly.

[lanrameau]

Don't bogart that joint my friend, pass it over to me!

[WoodyW]

Last night as we were walking to our local fireworks display, my sister and I passed two groups of four or five folks talking - in both instances they were jovially dismissing Obama's chances - On the way back to the car, we were overtaken by a group of teen-age girls singing the National Anthem and then "I'm proud to be an American." Beautiful voices - but chilling, recognizing their ties to the earlier groups. The woman who runs our senior center regularly sounds off about how important it is to keep a republican in office in order not to have our country taken over by people who don't respect God, the troops, or marriage, in that order. I live in a small town in Idaho, but I don't think we should be toasting our winner yet. In fact, I believe the worst thing we could do now is relax while the turtle overtakes us. Very few people in this entire region, if I can believe anything I overhear on the streets, believe that the problems of the nation are brought on by the current administration. If anything, they believe the problems are caused by "tree-huggers" and anti-American forces headed up by democrats and gays. Logic, intelligence, research, evidence, facts are all ignored. We can't rest. We can't relax. And we can't underestimate the gullibility of the American people.

[lanrameau]

Luckily Idaho doesn't matter very much. I know--I'm a couple hours SE of you.

[BryantG]

I believe your insights and concerns are all valid. There is a big difference between the democratic primary electorate and the general electorate. At this point I am hopeful, but I am also very doubtful.

[MSGH]

Nice scenario. When I voted for a 3rd party candidate in 1968, I didn't think there was a chance Nixon could win. So much for prescience!

As Obama's being a candidate who thinks that you don't have to sell your soul to win, I'm unfortunately, becoming less sure of that, given many of his recent pronouncements. I was a strong Obama supporter during the primaries, but now I wish Clinton had won. At least there'd be a clear-cut difference between her & McCain; Obama's rapidly eroding that difference, though I hope he won't go all the way (I almost said, "I think he won't," but then I didn't think he make some of the switches he has recently: Iraq, FISA, late-term abortion--the list goes on.

[suigeneris]

"but now I wish Clinton had won"

Yeah, because the Clintons aren't like, KNOWN for being the masters of triangulation, are they?

[erathwomen]

It's ridiculous to make comments like this so far out. If Bush bombs Iran before Nov 4, we lose, full stop.

[toby25]

I personally know lifelong democrats here in Ohio who are NOT voting for Obama. The words of one "Obama is an embarrasing disgrace and I wouldn't vote for him if my life depended on it". The way Obama has been changing positions recently and moving to the right he is pissing off alot of prior loyalists. Seriously, what do we really know about this guy?? This thing is far from a shoe in. He should be killing McCain in the polls and he isn't. There are alot of McCain fans out there from both parties and non partisan people who are independents.

[cathye]

Actually, he is. If you actually look at the numbers, he's got a double digit lead in enough states to give him over 200 electoral votes from them alone, and a strong single digit lead in enough battleground states to tip him over 300 easily. McCain's double digit lead only lands him a guaranteed 58 electoral votes, and his single digit lead brings him just over a hundred.

The MSM is promoting the narrative that it's a close race because they want you to keep watching their programs. It's not a close race. Obama is kicking McCain's butt already.

[armadillious2002]

The only thing in this country that is an embarrasment is the repub party and all who are in it.

[AzRealProgressive]

Absolutely right. I assume you have canceled you rRepub party membership?

After all Martin Luther King was a Republican.

Certainly he was an enbarassment, correct aradillous 2002?

[Ergon]

Don't count your chickens yet dept. Obama is proving himself to be just another politician, and therefore, he can lose. Maybe the real American Revolution can begin the day after?

[truthynesslover]

Do you want to win the popular vote and not the presidency??we need STATES to win and if he has to go to the center to WIN all the more power to him.We do NOT live in a liberal county,I wish we did but we dont and we need to adjust to the fact or lose again!

[Ergon]

I think the one issue, honestly spoken, that would win all the states is to bring the troops home NOW.

[xargaw]

I can't be quite as optimistic as the author because I have seen the press distort, manufacture and neuter good candidates while ignoring blantant flaws and mistakes in others. Look how they allowed the manufactured creation of "W" and allowed the swiftboating of Kerry and completely ignored Edwards despite his grass roots support. The press gives credibility to people where none exists. I hope the author is right, but already, I am seeing microscopic attention to all things Obama and a manipulated press response while seeing pass after pass on McCain's mistakes, confusion and refusual to address questions. My TV may not survive until November now that the Supreme Court has allowed me to wield a firearm at my pleasure.

One thing I have noticed that I have not heard anyone address and I think will come to haunt McCain is his bookends (Lieberman and Grahmn). These two Senators apparently have nothing to do in the Senate and are at McCain's side everywhere he goes. Their presence calls even greater attention to McCain's age. When I see them, I am reminded of the rich old guy with two health aids at his side so he won't slip and fall or say something inappropriate to embarrass the family.

[jonathanu]

Dear Mr. Grahame-Smith, while I would love to believe in your beautiful vision of a landslide, I do not believe we can allow ourselves to be lulled into a false sense of complacency. If Obama is ten points ahead in the polls, we must still fight like he's ten points behind. If Obama loses, it will be a national tragedy. If he wins only by a small margin, pundits will call the nation "divided". If and only if the victory is a freakin' landslide, will Obama's victory be called a mandate. Only then will the Republicans be forced to critically reexamine their neocon policies.

Remember, bipartisan goodwill can only begin after we crush the Republicans in November.

[Strepsi]

Just today I saw a Republican friend in the U.S. compare Obama to.... HITLER. The Republicans fight hard, and fast, and dirty, and control the discourse, and all you Democrats do is... "react". As a Canadian who watched you lose the last 2 elections, get swiftboated, and dribble Congress away pathetically, I gotta tell you Democrats GROW SOME B*LLS AND FIGHT HARD AND DIRTY... ATTACK FIRST, CONTROL THE MESSAGE, AND LET THEM "REACT"... OR YOU WILL LOSE. AGAIN. Sorry for shouting, but I see y'all fighting each other while the GOP prepares for the nastiest. battle. ever.

[cathye]

That's called a Godwin, and it's automatically a losing argument.

They should have learned what the Internet learned back in 1992: Calling someone Hitler or a Nazi means you've already lost the argument.

[jsinclair]

Obama said he'd be ready for swiftboating in the primary. Yet he was swiftboated by Reverend Wright.

Just last week, Republicans swiftboated Wesley Clark--successfully smearing a war hero for expressing an opinion that he had EVERY RIGHT to say.

Again, Democrats let it happen.

If this were going to be an honest campaign about judgment and issues, then of course McSame would lose. The image of him embracing Bush would be all it took to completely discredit him.

But GWB was reelected in 2004, which is even more astonishing than the stolen election of 2000.

Republicans. Play. Dirty. And get away with it. So, yes, McSame can still win. Easily.

[ZekeBundren]

It is one thing for fake news outlets like Fox to buy into the "worst of" nonsense like attacking Clark for speaking a truth that isn't even remarkable. It is another for CNN, MSNBC and other network news to buy into that tripe.

Obama probably made a mistake evading Clark's words. America is ready to hear the truth about McCain. Media and incompetent Democrats are not.

As suggested through the reponses here, Republicans will use that weakness to their best advantage. One hopes the American voter is a little smarter this year than he and she were in 2004.

[woodguru]

He made a big mistake not completely backing what was said and pointing out that he just said that it didn't qualify McCain to be president. It was a mistake and almost gives credibility to the crapola by implication. He should support the statement and even elaborate on it, heck he might find that it gets both he and Clark so much support that his running mate is named and they get a lot of free advertizing.

[amcg50]

This is just "Stupid" Talk...It won't be that easy...

[ebanks84]

I think it will be that easy if we can keep the rethugs away from the voting machines. That's where they win.

[Schnitzel]

The proper phrasing is "All McCain's Base ARE belong to us." Your English is too good. Get your pop culture references right.
Main screen turn on - It's you!
Somebody set up us - the bomb!
McCain; you have no chance to survive, make your time!

AYBABTU

[Vermontah]

The Republicans simply stole the last two elections. They may well steal this one. Why not? We, the electorate, don't seem to care enough to demand change, they might as well just steal it under our noses.

It is also possible that Bush will bring about another devastating attack on our country, invade Iran, declare a state of national emergency and postpone the elections. He could in the stroke of a pen.

I, too, try to be hopeful about this election, and chuckled like everybody else at the article, but I'm not so sure as to be so smug. The Fascists in power who call themselves Republicans are extremely devious and have no morals. I'm glad you're so confident about the health of our electoral system and the willingness of Bush to relinquish power. I'm a pessimist, and I'm scared.

[woodguru]

You have that right, while Obama is trying to play fair I think there are bigger guns coming out on this one. This should be played with republican type dirty hardball. McCain has all the ammunition out on the table that nothing is being done with. I saw a point someone made that is unbelievable but true. What is the first thing on anyone's resume for a high power job application? Education, what does McCain's friggin resume look like? Lowest in his class at the academy and we have vetted him for the top job in the country. This is a ludicrous and not very funny joke. obama has the highest credentials possible and a focus on constitutional law. He has written opinions and briefs on the subject as president of the Harvard Law Review that were followed and respected by the brightest legal minds in this country. Meanwhile we let a campaign be run against him that can only resort to attacking him as opposed to highlighting the nonexistent strengths of McCain. Yeah I'm scared, there is also the uncomfortably suspect voting count system and equipment, we didn't put enough focus on fixing that to my satisfaction.

[fedupwiththeright]

Vermontah
Thank you. I haven't, obviously, been able to read every single comment that is out here in cyberspace, but your comment is the first that I,ve read that shares the same fear that I have.
If GWB or any one of his neocon crowd can come up with a way to declare martial law before the election I have no doubt that he will. It's a sorry state of affairs in this country when a retired old fart, and a Vietnam veteran, like myself has to admit that. Thanks again, you've given me the courage to admit my fear out loud(sort of).
I'm voting for Obama because I hope and pray that we do not get another Republican, any Republican, in the White House. After the last seven+ years I hope that we never, ever, do again.

[SimonNZ]

Not so fast Seth. You're placing your hopes on the average American voter doing some thinking. This approach led to a two term Bush presidency. I remember feeling certain Bush couldn't be re-elected in 2004 and then incredulous when he was. A McCain presidency is only a few muddled messages (like a 'refined' Iraq war policy) away. It doesn't matter that McCain has changed his position on almost every issue, as soon as Obama drifts even slightly off message he'll be branded a 'Flip-Flopper' and bye-bye the election. Think lightning can't strike twice? Bush proved it can. I don't want to be Cassandra but complacency and smugness can only be bad. Now is the time to stay focussed and on message. Save the congratulations and champagne till after the election.