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Seth Shostak

Seth Shostak

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A Bucketful of Worlds

Posted: 02/ 3/11 12:12 PM ET

It's raining planets. Members of the science team for NASA's Kepler telescope have just announced the tentative discovery of more than 1,200 worlds orbiting distant stars. Of these, approximately four dozen are candidates for being Earth's doppelgangers -- planets that could be layered by a liquid ocean and a thick atmosphere. Worlds that might conceivably host life.

This is big news, and the search for radio transmissions from these latter worlds is already underway. Finding a signal would be shattering, for it would tell us that a planet is home to technologically savvy inhabitants.

Kepler's success has astronomers beating their pocket-protected chests, and it's hard not to be impressed by the numbers -- especially given a bit of historical perspective. For 200 millennia, our species knew of only seven bodies routinely shuffling through the star-filled skies: the Sun, moon, and five, bright, point-like objects with classy names from Roman mythology. Then in 1781, the English astronomer William Herschel saw a new world beyond Saturn. His discovery of Uranus hinted that more planets might be hiding in the dark, outer pickets of our solar system. (It also guaranteed job security for Herschel.) Within a century-and-a-half, Neptune and Pluto were uncovered.

And then the well went dry until 1995, when Swiss astronomers announced that a planet was racing around a rather ordinary star, 50 light-years distant. It was a world at least half the heft of Jupiter, and so close to its sun that daytime temperatures on the surface would be several thousand degrees. A world as sterile as a baked brick.

In the years since, teams of astronomers have used large, ground-based telescopes to laboriously track down more planets. Meticulous work, but it's paid off. The current tally is more than 500 extrasolar planets, or a discovery rate of nearly one a week. That is, until Kepler's big announcement.

This plucky NASA telescope is able to find planets en masse. If you compare planet hunting to prospecting for gold, then Kepler is equivalent to trading in your trusty pan for a diesel-powered sluice box.

But aside from Kepler's wholesale approach to uncovering new worlds, it has a talent that the traditional methods don't yet have; namely the ability to find small planets that aren't too close to their suns. Planets that are the size of Earth (or even Mars) -- and in orbits that might allow them to enjoy temperatures befitting biology-as-we-know-it.

So Kepler's discovery of worlds that could support life is an obvious motivation for the SETI Institute to swing the antennas of the Allen Telescope Array in their direction. So far, a preliminary reconnaissance has combed these worlds for signals over one small slice of the radio dial. No clearly extraterrestrial transmissions have been found.

But here's the promise. If we crudely do the numbers, these early results from Kepler indicate that approximately 3 percent of all stars could boast a habitable planet. Within a thousand light-years of Earth -- a distance that could be bridged by transmitters no more powerful than equipment we ourselves can build -- there are at least 30,000 of these habitable worlds.

Well, perhaps they're only habitable, and not inhabited. Conceivably, they could all be barren. Or perhaps they host only intellectually challenged life -- alien equivalents of paramecia, pond scum, or pterodactyls.

Maybe. But it's hard to argue against making a bet and tuning the telescopes. Kepler's search is still underway. More Earth-like planets will come down the pike in the next two years, and you can bet your paycheck they'll be getting increased scrutiny for the tell-tale signs of intelligence.

Sure, nothing has been found so far. But 30,000 is a big number.

 
It's raining planets. Members of the science team for NASA's Kepler telescope have just announced the tentative discovery of more than 1,200 worlds orbiting distant stars. Of these, approximately fo...
It's raining planets. Members of the science team for NASA's Kepler telescope have just announced the tentative discovery of more than 1,200 worlds orbiting distant stars. Of these, approximately fo...
 
 
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01:57 PM on 02/17/2011
I knew this already without the help of a telescope.
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Irantergosum
01:31 PM on 02/17/2011
What else are we missing the question asks? Most probably intelligence. Look, we can't even manage our own planet responsibly. Why worry about Tyche?
07:14 AM on 02/10/2011
Hi, sir,Good morning,i am Rahul ,from india,
i Believe our Rebirth is also on other planets as Aliens; in that planets Aliens Life span is 1,000years,or 10,000years,or 100,000years; in that planets Aliens Live without polution(They use solar energy,not use petrol,diesel Like us);They are Looking so Beautiful compare to us(not Like as Hollywood film Aliens);God created Not only our Dirty planet,he also created,good world's,for who people did good Things,in their past Life;if God is not Here,Then all planets,stars(suns),Asteroids,Black Holes are collapsed (crushed by Accident);
i Think There is No Hell and No Heaven; God created only Hell Type of planets(Like our planet)& Heaven Type of planets;
i Think There is No Ghost. if There is Ghost, Then God Didn't created our planets&universe; Because,Ghost Destroy our planets & universe; only ourr past Life karma is Deside our Luck or Bad Luck; But suicide is Not Death;
Note:There are 9 planets,100 moons in our solar system,There are 10,000crores(100 Billions) above solar systems in our Galaxy,There are above 10,000crores (100Billions)Galaxies in our Universe; There are Lot of universes in space;
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10:07 PM on 02/13/2011
Best post ever.
03:42 PM on 02/14/2011
awesome fanned
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Dnietz
politics is obsolete
07:47 PM on 02/14/2011
Totally agree.

I'm saving the link to this post.
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kyleahealy
03:54 PM on 02/14/2011
the church of Rahultology
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ElBruce
05:00 PM on 02/14/2011
I'll sign up.

So now that I'm a Rahulian, do I get to wear some cool robes?
10:41 PM on 02/04/2011
This is great news!! Wow, we are really at the dawn of a new age. God has given us the brains and desire to seek all the treasures this great universe has and it looks as if we will are getting ready to take the next step. Lets not squable about our differences right now, we should be proud of what we have achieved as a human race!
07:27 AM on 02/04/2011
Oh yeah? Well what about the tides? They go in, they go out and nobody knows why!
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macrocosm
We are sorry your micro-bio did not meet our guide
01:52 AM on 02/15/2011
The Moon
05:23 PM on 02/15/2011
LOL!
great impersonation of Billo :)
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Miserable Swine
05:46 AM on 02/04/2011
Assuming that radio signals (or other indicators) should be detected, pointing to the possible existence of intelligent extra-terrestrial life, I`m not convinced that such a discovery would be the epiphany that some think it might. Let`s face it: we`ve made a pretty poor job of things here. Wars, starvation, disease and poverty stalk most of the world`s population, waiting for - and taking - an opportunity to strike. Although we`ve got loads of fancy technological doodads, and we`ve (largely) abolished slavery and other malaises, as a species we`re still enslaved by our desires and passions (what could be called `the survival instinct`). We can achieve great things; we can also be as chaotic and barbaric as hell. `Proof` of another load of sky-gods may not change the basic human `nature` (and that `nature` is a whole load of postings and pages to discuss in itself). Were extra-terrestrials to visit the planet and help `clean up the mess`, as it were, then things may be different and we may then have the means to solve some of the seemingly insoluble problems that we face.

I think if there were civilisations `greater` than ours (and capable of reaching this planet), they`d avoid Earth. Maybe the reason we haven`t detected extra-terrestrial intelligence is because such intelligences would rather not be detected? Still, the quest for knowledge is a laudable one that defines humanity at its apex.

"“Ah, but a man's reach should exceed his grasp, or what's a heaven for?”
05:28 PM on 02/15/2011
the point most scientists make is that such a discovery might bring us together. anything that might help us realize that we're not alone - maybe not even the pinnacle of creation - might be an eye-opener for us. a positive one.

as to their coming here, oh God, I hope not. if they're capable of getting here they're far-and-away more clever than we are [we certainly can't get to them right now] and history has WAY too many examples of what happens to the 'primitives' when the 'more advanced' arrive. guess who would be which in such a scenario. . . .
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Perdendosi
09:13 AM on 02/17/2011
Very true. Numerous astronomers and physicists have made the same point, including Stephen Hawking.
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drewbob
smoke'em if you got 'em
10:41 AM on 02/17/2011
it would be great if we did get visitors and they turned out to be peace loving hippies that just want to make sure all living things get what they need to survive.
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realitytrumpsbull
Two 'alves of coconut!
01:44 AM on 02/04/2011
I think a sign of higher intelligence here on earth would be to take a little coffee break from the star gazing, and work to get our energy act together. Example: There's currently much ado, harping, and whining about coal plants and all the horrifying combustion byproducts they're hurling into the atmosphere, killing off flora and fauna at a record rate etc etc. So, why not think about adding a little NASA 'magic' to your average coal plant? Specifically, taking advantage of the fact that coal-fired power plants produce electricity, and use water. By odd coincidence, they also sell machines called 'electrolyzers' for various applications, which ingest both water and electricity, and yield hydrogen and oxygen. Soooo....what happens when you take the emissions output of a coal plant, or for that matter, a natural gas plant, and re-burn it with hydrogen and oxygen? Would the resulting heat be able to reduce overall coal consumption by adding a second 'stage' to the whole apparatus, basically running another boiler off the re-burner? What would ultimately and finally be emitted, besides heat and chemically inert particulate, from such a process? I think it's worth a look. NASA, in America, is roughly synonymous with science and computers and smart people and stuff. They drive some of the fastest vehicles known to man, they have freeze-dried ice cream, maybe they also have an answer that could be developed and suggested to people trying to solve air pollution problems resulting from energy production processes.
09:49 AM on 02/04/2011
I'm not sure I understand how your scheme is supposed to work. Electrolyzers do use energy, to dissociate the H and O. And the combustion products from a coal-fired plant are already burned. There are already a lot of researchers (with DOE, and private funding) trying to figure out how to solve these problems; the expertise of NASA-funded scientists is not necessarily congruent with the skill set needed for these other issues.
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Ouroboros Rex
11:37 AM on 02/15/2011
They're not completely burned, and throwing them into the middle of an H-O combustion would certainly do that. But electrolysis is a power hungry process. Luckily the payback would be the destruction of monoxides, sulfate particulates and the like, not energy release from the electrolysis.

Folks are indeed working on many plans to process coal plant output but I don't know the particulars.
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DAE
11:27 PM on 02/03/2011
Been there. Done that.
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MarioFZ1
Welcome to the henhouse
09:18 PM on 02/03/2011
Extraterrestial intelligent life. It would be a monumental discovery for mankind, and may be the push to abolish religion from our lives....
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Richard Bartholomew
My micro-bio isn't empty.
04:38 AM on 02/04/2011
" ... and may be the push to abolish religion from our lives.... "

Or to reinvigorate it. Who knows?
08:04 PM on 02/14/2011
Especially if their diety's name was Xenu.
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10:05 PM on 02/13/2011
It would certainly give paranoia a giant shove.
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Spock
You are completely, absolutely, illogical
08:17 PM on 02/03/2011
If there is other life out there I wouldn't us to make contact with them.

I wouldn't want them to get any bad ideas from us. :)
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Angela Lund
10:56 PM on 02/04/2011
Yeah, we've made a bad habit of handing weapons to our future enemies...
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bjammin
Authentic Frontier Gibberish
08:07 PM on 02/03/2011
"His discovery of Uranus . .. "

**snigger**

But seriously, I've been a big fan of Extrasolar Planet discovery for a long time, and find this news extremely exciting. How long it will it be before Richard Branson is selling tickets for trips to go there?
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Angela Lund
11:00 PM on 02/04/2011
Exactly. And what's an astronomy discussion without a joke about uranus? Hah! I mean, come on!
I happen to believe you can't be a really great parent (or child) if you can't appreciate sophomoric humor. ;) Things are far too serious these days, imo...
05:49 PM on 02/03/2011
Kepler looks for planets by watching for periodic dips in the light radiated by the planets' parent stars as the planets transit between their stars and the Earth's Solar System. For this detection to work, the target planets must orbit in a plane that intersects our own Solar System; Kepler can only see planets whose orbital ecliptic plane lies within a fraction of a degree of this "perfect" alignment.

Means that, for every planet that Kepler spots, must be some hundreds that are invisible to it. And yet, Kepler has spotted over a thousand candidate worlds in a survey of some tens of thousands of stars!

However scarce life may be in the Cosmos, planets, it would appear, are not...
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J242
Micro-bio? We don't need no stinkin' micro-bio!
01:00 PM on 02/15/2011
No way to know if life is scarce in the cosmos as we've only ever set foot on one rock other than our own and it doesn't have any real atmosphere and far less gravity. We have robots on Mars but combing a few miles is like looking at one grain of sand from a full beach. Plus we only see the possibility of life as being carbon based because it's all we know. There's nothing set in stone that life could not be formed from other base elements than our own. Who knows? That's the amazing thing about the search! :D
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04:32 PM on 02/03/2011
if NASA or SETI can spare some money give it to a group of yogic flyers for creating world peace ; intraterrestials
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jamenta
There are other human values besides greed.
04:30 PM on 02/03/2011
Probably the more urging question we need to ask ourselves is not if there is intelligent life "out there", but whether there is any intelligent life left on earth.
05:51 PM on 02/03/2011
A question one is often driven to ask! But, at a risk of displaying undue optimism, would say that the success of the Kepler mission indicates that there is, in fact, some intelligent life here on Earth...