Yesterday, the Tunisian people toppled their leader, President Ben Ali, in a historic first for the Arab world. This is still a would-be revolution, not yet a successful one. A revolution entails a change in regime, not just in leadership. Power, today, is still in the hands of those associated with the Ancien regime. As Issandr El Amrani writes: "The next 24 hours may be as crucial as the preceding 24." Elections are to be held within 60 days. Here, US and European pressure will be critical in ensuring they are free and fair, with full participation from all political forces, including the banned Islamist party -- al-Nahda led by Rachid Ghannouchi. Any post-revolutionary government in Tunisia needs to represent the widest spectrum possible of social forces in the country -- socialist, leftist, liberal, and Islamist. Tunisians will need to reassess and redesign their constitutional and institutional setup. This is where the international community (for example democracy promotion NGOs) can play a critical supporting role. For starters, under what electoral framework will new elections be held?
No one should underestimate what happened yesterday in Tunisia. If the revolution succeeds, it may very well prove to be one of the most important moments in recent Arab history. It will alter the calculus not only for Arab regimes -- who are watching very, very nervously -- but for Western powers that have long oriented their Middle East policy around seemingly stable, autocratic governments.
Stability is often illusory. Autocracies are stable -- until they're not, and then it's too late. This will, or at least should, be one of the major lessons of the Tunisia's uprising. The new Tunisian government, elected by its own people for the first time, is likely to be less "pro-West" than its authoritarian predecessors. But if Western nations play a constructive role in the interim period, demonstrating their strong support for Tunisian democratization, then some of those concerns can be allayed (call it peaceful pre-emption if you like).
The wait-and-see approach of the United States (which I write about here) will no longer suffice. President Obama's statement last night applauding the "courage and dignity" of the Tunisian people and affirming their right to choose their own leaders was better than expected. That said, it is much easier to support the winners after they've won. In the two years leading up to the Tunisian uprising, I don't recall Obama, or any senior administration official, recognizing and supporting Tunisians' right to basic political rights and freedoms. The true test for the Obama administration comes now, when a great deal is still at stake. The U.S., sadly, does not have a history of supporting Arab democratic aspirations. And, now, with the region coming alive -- or coming apart -- it may be too little, too late. Here's hoping it isn't.
Follow Shadi Hamid on Twitter: www.twitter.com/shadihamid
Barry Lando: Tunisia: Democratic Triumph or U.S. Disaster?
Lets hope the US leaves tunisia to build its own democracy without interference from the CIA
Of course we are all going to ignore the government that the Iraqis just managed to put together that actually represents the country, and brings together most of the battling parties (including Sadr), all of which was based on the popular election of their Council of Representatives. It took months but they still managed it, and even more amazing, the government continued to function during the nine month negotiation, and tempers were held in check until they reached an agreement.
But maybe that would lead to acknowledging a tiny little good thing the US just may have done. Can't do that on these threads, oh no!
So by that standard are elections in Germany today not "free and fair"?
Wait, don't let the spring, the clearness of the sky and the shine of the morning light fool you ...
Because the darkness, the thunder's rumble and the blowing of the wind are coming toward you
from the horizon
Beware because there is a fire underneath the ash
If free elections are held in Tunisia in six months - and one hopes they are - the people may not necessarily be pro-West, but they will definitely be pro-Tunisia.
As I write this, there are protests in Algeria, Jordan and Libya. I don't know if we will necessarily see a domino effect, but people of the region are definitely inspired to at least speak out, protest, demonstrate, etc.
The Tunisians really utilized social media to the fullest to voice their anger and mobilize - I wonder if media historians will look back on these days as a point of no return. Arab repressive governmentÂÂs are surely going to try and learn what they can from this. But the die has been cast, social media is the weapon of the revolutionÂÂary, the oppressed, and the disenfrancÂÂhised ... and they have decades of frustration to express ...
(as much as they have nothing but love, cheers and support for the tunisian seekers of freedom)
but rather, they are waiting to see what the final resultant is....
it can still go both ways: better or worse, or the worst: seemingly better but exactly the same
and yet,
"we have to wait and see",
compared to
"throwing support behind the revolution (if even from afar)",
is a cop out
if everyone was spurred by this action to revolution around the arab world it would be the best support for tunisia's revolution as well as for each others'...
if everyone got up and went for it now, believe me, the best outcome of tunisia's change will be the most probable outcome
and yet it is hard to risk it all if you are an individual
while the other arab peoples need to take the cautious approach to see what will occur;
will the other arab regimes bolster the tunisian tyrants or the democrats?
will the US and the EU encourage the demonstrators or arm the army and police?
will the Russians or the Chinese poke their noses and so what?
will Israel involve itself?
people are waiting to see what a modern 'arab revolution' results in before they decide to mimic it
As Lewis Black stated so eloquently when discussing the bailouts: The French Revolution -- I GET IT NOW!
It is a well analysed article by Br. Shadi Hamid. Writers like him at the same time should tell the Tunisians and the Arab/Muslim/ masses that disunity among the Ummah is very dangerous and it may provide a murderous opportunity for the adversaries to add fuel to the fire.
Remember what happened in 1953 to Iranian democracy. Who plotted against Iranian democracy. Obama himself apologised for the conspiracy by CIA.
What went wrong with Algerian democracy and the Palestinian elections that brought Hamas to power ( the US fails to recognise and so Hamas is treated by the world community as untouchable Pariahs- that is the American definition of democracy)
The US wants democracy but it also wants the more US compliant Arab leaders monarchs/dictators/tyrants/juntas or the so called democrats such as the present Iraqi leaders.
The West and the US are stubborn and have a political axe to grind. This led to the weakening and disintegration of the Nation of Islam. Did Islam gain by this sort of irrationalistic, Islamically harmful freedom? (Look at Iraq and Afghanistan)
so where is the ummah and where is the arab world?
let's get free before we call for undefined yet glamorous sounding unities; let's get free first and then we can see how the same or different we are