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Sharmine Narwani

Sharmine Narwani

Posted: January 8, 2011 03:26 PM

Kill the "Peace Game"

What's Your Reaction:

The Palestine-Israel conflict is no pesky regional skirmish. This century-long battle over territory threatens to draw the entire global community into its bowels if it is not dealt with soon, and the only way out of the current paralysis is to kill the "peace process" once and for all.

There is no other way to end our dependence on what is probably the least successful attempt at conflict resolution in modern history -- like wasted addicts, hoping that another tweak here or there might be the one to produce a breakthrough. No it won't, and we need to wean ourselves from this addiction in order to find a solution.

Some realities to consider:

Nineteen years of a drawn out "peace process" has seen the establishment and institutionalization of a "peace industry" so gargantuan and far-reaching that it makes the United Nations look like a nimble start-up operation.

From Madrid to Oslo to Annapolis to the Quartet, we are hampered by agreements, roadmaps and conditions that create a thicket of red tape and limit our maneuverability. Layer upon layer of superficial "process" obscures the path forward. Which is why we are standing quite still.

Even the participants are fake. The Palestinian "Authority" -- well -- has none. We squeezed out the elected body and inserted our own players. When we throw eve-of-peace-talks ceremonies at the White House, we invite Egypt and Jordan, who have absolutely nothing of substance to contribute. And we studiously ignore all the parties that count - Hamas and Syria are fundamentally unavoidable in any settlement.

Welcome to the Middle East Peace Game -- in which we get to choose the players, make up the rules and set the time table.

Excluded from the game is anything remotely resembling an actual solution, or any meaningful negotiation around the contentious core issues. We don't want this game to end. Like NATO and the other Cold War games we set up -- we are not sure exactly how to dismantle them and have long since forgotten the end goal. The goal, it seems, is to simply stay in "play."

So here we are at the start of 2011, entering the 20th year of the "Peace Process." The reality of establishing two states died years before the idea did -- just around the time we realized that Israel had used the peace process to sneak in half a million Jewish settlers into the occupied West Bank and East Jerusalem, thereby ending the land-for-peace basis of any lasting agreement.

Peace Game Was a Long-Term "Jobs Program"
Established by the Oslo Agreement to allow Palestinians to begin a process of self-governance, the Palestinian Authority (PA) instead turned out to be a nifty way to remove Israeli troops from the daily grind of confrontation, whilst quite brilliantly allowing Palestinians to administer their own occupation.

And we threw money at our handpicked Palestinian leadership -- creating graft, corruption and a sense of entitlement the likes of which has not been seen since the CEO of Halliburton became vice president of the United States. In the process, we cordoned off the "opposition" into a hellhole called Gaza, and sought to destroy them by punishing an entire civilian population.

So focused were we on establishing players and rules, not for one honest second did we drill down on the core issues required to resolve this most divisive conflict: 1) final borders; 2) status of Jerusalem 3) the right of return for Palestinian refugees; 4) sovereignty issues, including water and air space rights; security, etc

The Peace Process Industry instead created a thousand other issues to be addressed first: who is in charge of guarding the grove of olive trees below that hill, around the corner from Abul Abed's house? Who is going to ride in the second car when the PA president visits a town in Sector C? Who is going to collect taxes from the Palestinian worker building a gazebo for a Jewish settler family on illegally confiscated land? And other such numbing minutae.

If Rot Persists, Do a Demolition
Quite understandably then, nothing has moved forward in twenty years. Yet today, the same set of leaders in Israel, Palestine, Egypt, Jordan, the US Congress, State Department, Arab League and European Union are still trying to resuscitate these dead talks by suggesting itty-bitty, incremental steps that they hope will breathe some life into this cadaver.

There is only one way out of this. Kill the Peace Game. No Oslo Agreement. No Palestinian Authority. No Quartet. Kill the Game now and start a new chapter premised fully on achieving a solution-at-any-cost and soliciting the participation of any party, action or initiative that can deliver results within a ridiculously short time frame. Trust me, all the parties know their bottom line after twenty years of thinking about it -- it should take about a week to figure out where they converge.

Now, I have been recently wondering why the idea of "changing course" creates such paralyzing fear amongst the group of nations/actors listed above. Honestly, I promise to not offer up even a single original idea: the script has practically been writing itself this past year -- except the main "players" have either not been watching, or are refusing to accept a new narrative that challenges their playbook.

Clearly, to end their addiction to this game, an intervention is required. Here's an example of how to do this decisively: Acting PA President Mahmoud Abbas can, in one fell swoop 1) Quit; 2) Declare that Palestinians will no longer welcome a US role in peace brokering; 3) Dissolve the Palestinian Authority and fold themselves back into the PLO or a similar umbrella liberation movement; 4) Demand that the UN Security Council enforce all resolutions on the Palestine-Israel conflict within a set timetable --or the following will take place:

  • Palestinian leaders representing all factions will form an interim governing body and declare a Palestinian state on all territories occupied by Israel in 1967.
  • The Palestinian security forces will be mobilized to protect the independent Palestinian state and its borders.
  • Palestinians will stop subsidizing their own occupation by refusing to pay taxes to any non-Palestinian institution, and will immediately halt all work in Jewish settlements.
  • Palestinians will demand that the Arab League restore the Middle East-wide boycott on companies doing business with Israel until all IDF troops and Jewish settlers have been removed from territories occupied in 1967. The 118-nation Non-Aligned Movement and various western groups/unions already participating in the Boycott, Divestment and Sanctions (BDS) of Israel will be invited to join.

Peace Process "Frankensteins" Are Failing Anyway
Now here's the rub. One can be fairly certain that Abbas and his PA cronies will do nothing of the sort. But in short shrift, that may not matter any longer.

The pro-US, Fatah-dominated Palestinian Authority has virtually no credibility left among its own populations -- Israeli politicians are all over the WikiLeaks cables brandishing this fact. Without reconciliation with the main Palestinian resistance group, Hamas, the PA will fall. And since the US, Israel and Egypt have done everything in their power to prevent this reconciliation, they are the architects of the PA's demise.

As highly-militarized states do, Israel will reflexively rush to prop up its occupation, inserting IDF troops back into the West Bank to underline its authority. But now they will be facing the US-trained Palestinian security forces who will, if provoked, turn their newfound skills and weapons onto Israeli occupation targets. At that point the IDF could be facing down Hamas soldiers defending Palestinian borders and towns as well.

Either way, once the IDF is back on the scene you can expect every Who Down in Whoville to go back into resistance. Ding dong, third intifada.

Turmoil Will Finally Light a Fire Under the International Community
Twenty years of "process with no peace" has lost Washington any remaining credibility as a peace broker, and few countries will feel under obligation to pay even lip service to further US promises or plans. Attempts to veto resolutions on Israel's illegal settlements will only gain the derision of the international community at this point, and the Obama administration's recent efforts to prevent a Palestinian unilateral declaration of statehood is likely only to undermine its Palestinian partners back home.

Because whether Abbas declares an independent Palestinian state tomorrow or not, the concept is well and truly out of the box and making the rounds. Seven nations have now - quite organically, it seems -- recognized a Palestinian state in the last month: Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay, Ecuador, Bolivia, Paraguay and Chile have all either recognized the state on 1967 borders or will do so imminently. And according to news outlets, Mexico, Peru and Nicaragua are also reported to be considering recognition.

It would be political suicide for the pro-US regimes of Muslim-majority states like Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia -- and Abbas' PA -- to not publicly declare their recognition of an independent Palestinian state when half of Christian Latin America has already done so.

The United Kingdom, a relatively staunch supporter of Israel, has followed this news by confirming that it is considering moves to upgrade the Palestinian delegation in London to the status of a full diplomatic mission shortly. Britain is not alone -- it joins France, Spain and Portugal in doing so.

A few weeks ago, more than two dozen former EU leaders issued a letter calling for boycotts and sanctions against Israel for rejecting a settlement freeze in the occupied territories in defiance of international law.

The 26-member Who's Who from the European Union "called for the EU to prohibit import of products made in settlements, and demanded that Israel fund the bulk of aid to Palestinians. The letter also urged the EU to make an upgrade of relations with Israel contingent on the cessation of settlement construction."

The PA warned last week that it will take the issue of Israel's illegal settlement activity to the UN Security Council, where surely a half dozen or so dusty resolutions on the subject already exist, awaiting a time when the Security Council puts its full weight behind the enforcement of these rulings. Having already used its authority to justify a war in Iraq, authorize four rounds of sanctions against Iran and fund an ill-conceived investigation into the death of a former Lebanese PM, the Security Council will be hard pressed to ignore its own resolutions on the illegal Jewish settlements.

The fact is, the time is right. Never before has Israel bent this far to the right. A series of statements and developments in the Jewish state suggest a thriving racism that fits snugly into the narrative of an "Apartheid" Israel that was bound to emerge if the two-state solution was lost -- words to that effect from no less authoritative figures than US Secretary of State Hilary Clinton, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak and former Israeli PM Ehud Olmert.

Two Breakout Scenarios for the Bold:
Settlements first. If the UNSC can do its magic without the interference of a US veto, "de-settling" the West Bank may be the first step toward a Palestinian state based on 1967 borders. Boycott, sanctions, divestment or NATO forces -- whatever it takes to get those settlers out and recognize an independent Palestinian state. This is a scenario where Israel will be required to act according to international law or suffer the consequences. The way we did it in Iraq. But legitimately, this time.

The second option: Israel militarily re-occupies the West Bank to prevent a unilateral Palestinian takeover, and we are back to square one, as though this pointless peace process had never occurred.

But this is a different world, and this would be a "back to the future" occupation. An apartheid-style state occupying Palestine cannot survive in 21st century global politics where the only thing we know what to do with Apartheid is...dismantle it. And so the second solution -- again, one that has developed quite organically - presents itself. A single state where Jews, Christians and Muslims live as equals under the law.

Now this is just pure poison for hard-core Zionists and right-wing Israelis. Many have warned Tel Aviv that the lack of progress toward establishing a Palestinian state and resolving outstanding conflict issues will result in the unraveling of the "Jewish" identity of the state -- and staunch supporters from Jeffrey Goldberg to Thomas Friedman are finally questioning the Israel "they thought they knew," a sure sign that this extremist government has broken with the international community in its thinking.

Israel has one of two choices to make right now: remove all Jewish settlements from occupied territories and withdraw behind 1967 lines, or prepare for co-existence in One State, where all residents are equal under the law. These choices will remain the same regardless of which Israeli government coalition leads the country -- neither the Israeli left or right has stopped the flow of settlers into occupied territories or forged a peace deal. So dreaming of a Netanyahu-Livni coalition will not change anything except the rhetoric.

The Palestinian leadership has one of two choices to make too: break with the peace process trajectory in order to build the foundations for a future, or go under. There is nothing of this peace process that has served Palestinian national interests, so the PA will eventually be forced to take action of some sort. The concern is not that it will not renounce the process; the danger is that it will only do it in increments -- or half-heartedly -- providing Washington and Tel Aviv an opportunity to prod vulnerabilities or exploit divisions.

Enough with the repeated threats/promises of Mahmoud Abbas and Saeb Erekat to quit, declare a state, dissolve the PA or go to the UNSC. Just do it -- and do it all at once. Kill this Peace Game and create in its place a defined, time-lined, multi-pronged strategy that utilizes the new influencers on the global stage like Russia, China, India, -- strategic Israeli trading partners -- to force a resolution based on the core issues and the removal of settlements from all occupied territories... or multilaterally declare One State for all.

Only then can we expect a breakthrough.

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The Palestine-Israel conflict is no pesky regional skirmish. This century-long battle over territory threatens to draw the entire global community into its bowels if it is not dealt with soon, and th...
The Palestine-Israel conflict is no pesky regional skirmish. This century-long battle over territory threatens to draw the entire global community into its bowels if it is not dealt with soon, and th...
 
 
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Fred Ricardo
The white hat, Truth, Justices and theAmerican way
08:42 AM on 01/12/2011
Palestinian will go to the UN next year and ask to be an independent state. No one except Israel will object.

Then America will veto the world. We suck as a country for this. Obama has been an empty suit on Israel and is weak when it comes to decisions. Hillary is a liar back stabber who can get anything done. We should isolate Israel into submission, not be their only friend and protector considering how the NOCONS there have been the aggressor.
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Aussieposter
And so it begins
12:54 AM on 01/12/2011
Excellent Article. The Choices that face both Israel and the Palestinians are the same. If not a free Palestine, then a free vote as an Israeli citizen. A Palestinian let my people go or give my people the vote. It’s that simple. Either Freedom in the form of a state of their own (being allowed control of their own borders and foreign policy etc) Or freedom as part of a single state with equal rights.
12:42 PM on 01/11/2011
It would be political suicide for the pro-US regimes of Muslim-majority states like Jordan, Egypt, Saudi Arabia -- and Abbas' PA -- to not publicly declare their recognition of an independent Palestinian state when half of Christian Latin America has already done so.

Bravo! what a well thought out piece and very well articulated. i too believe the only way to move israel on this issue is to show the out come of a onestate solution. then they either conform to what the world community needs or no longer be a jewish state.
03:12 AM on 01/11/2011
I may be a little old fashioned but I start from a very simple premise. Sovereignt­y is not land ownership.

In all the annals of treaties and resolution­s pertaining to this dispute, nowhere is there mention of land or population transfer.

Nowhere, in Internatio­nal Law pertaining to War is the alienation of individual property sanctioned­.

It is a provable fact that only around 7% of the land and property within the fluid borders of Israel was acquired by mutual agreement of the purchaser and vendor.

This dispute is not about ethnic difference­, it is about one million individual­s who lost houses, farms, furniture, stock and even books and pots and pans to an invasion of people who claimed prior ownership based on dispossess­ion forced on their ancestors 2000 years before. A dispossess­ion that, according to current Historical opinion in Israeli academia, did not take place.

I fail to see how anyone can support any "solution" to this damnable conflict that does not take, as its first priority, restitutio­n or compensati­on for the victims of this gross injustice, most of whom took no part in the hostilitie­s.

This conflict will not begin to go away until the process of settling land claims begins.
"Everyone talks like it's complex and difficult to understand. That's a cop-out for not wanting to accept reality. It's just a classic ethnic conflict about who owns this piece of land. It's as simple as that."
-- Niel McDonald, News Middle East Bureau Chief, Canadian Broadcasting Company
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Sharmine Narwani
06:57 AM on 01/11/2011
Absolutely brilliant points.
Thelonius
Lived in Middle East for
02:58 PM on 01/12/2011
BINGO!!
08:51 PM on 01/10/2011
Well some of this I agree with. Some of it I disagree with. What I do not want to happen is for the US taxpayer to keep getting milked for more of this nonsense. We have spent far too much for far too long on this. And enriched people who did not deserve it and not really produced much with all our spending. Except two sides that hate our guts, by and large and expect us to pay, pay pay.

And the Arab street that hates us for being involved.

So...
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jwcmass
I dream of things that never were and ask Why not
02:48 PM on 01/12/2011
p2
 
It is because of the people I met and some I got to know, that I care about the region so much. I hate to see the suffering that is going on -- and believe me BOTH sides are "in pain" -- though in different ways.
 
Certainly the Palestinians are getting the worst of it, but the Occupation is affecting Israel negatively also -- from some of the disturbing stories I have been reading, there are laws being contemplated, some being passed, and other actions which are attempting to stifle dissent, and I fear for Israel's democratic freedom.
 
I don't think any country can long endure being an occupier and not have its democratic freedom undermined.
 
Anyway, I just thought I would share some of my experiences -- while the "Arab street" may hate what our government is doing, they do not (well MOST of them) hate Americans personally.
 
And there is cause for hope in that.
04:05 PM on 01/12/2011
Well there are plenty of Muslims that hate Americans personally. And surveys support that. And if we do not approach this mess in a different way, I predict it will get far worse.
Genders
Love, Tolerance, Enlightenment
07:02 PM on 01/10/2011
Love to see a link to support you vast "peace enterprise" claim. Yet, I agree that the settlements must end or the one nation concept be adopted. Unfortunately the Israels believe that God gave them the land, in fact according to the bible they should kill all the descendent's of the Arabs so they don't come back for revenge. Really it's in the old testament. Meanwhile the Palestinians believe the land is theirs, including all of Israel, as they used to own it before the formation of the modern Jewish state. But you also need to realize the conflict goes back 1400 years or more.

I truly wish there was a peaceful solution, I think it will be much more complicated than your suggestion, but nothing else has worked, who knows...
12:54 AM on 01/11/2011
It goes back 80 years. There hasn't been much of Jewish presence in the Levant in some 1800 years prior to that.
Michael II
Neither the one, nor the only
05:21 AM on 01/12/2011
The Israeli position is the West Bank along the 67 lines, plus Gaza, with the East Jerusalem as the capital. But there is also the thorny issue of the right of return (or compensation or whatever solution can be fond).
06:40 PM on 01/10/2011
I bet you would like that. Sorry, it ain't going to happen. The stolen lands will be returned in the end.
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blutopie
no longer 'chosen'
04:19 PM on 01/10/2011
Here's some follow-up on the huge story of Mossad Cheif Meir Dagan having ripped the fig leaf off Bibi and leaving him exposed in full view of the world as the liar he is. Dagan effectively removed the ONE THING that Israel was able to use as an excuse not to move on peace in Palestine - the one thing without which Israel is completely exposed to an intense and unmoving spotlight

Apparently Netayahu is furious - I, along with Mondoweiss and others think this is one of the most important developments of the last few years. Israel has been bushwhacked and exposed - Israel's only chance to avoid it's coming debacle in Palestine was a war on Iran - and that has just been scuttled by Dagan

http://coteret.com/2011/01/10/yediots-plocker-thank-you-mossad-for-removing-iranian-bomb-distraction-can-we-move-on-now/

Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu is furious with outgoing Mossad Director Meir Dagan because of the briefing Dagan gave journalists last Thursday. In the course of that briefing, Dagan shared with the reporters the Mossad’s assessment that the Iranians would be unable to develop a nuclear bomb before 2015.

Yedioth Ahronoth has learned that Dagan’s statements infuriated Netanyahu, who advocates taking an aggressive approach vis-à-vis Iran. According to a high-ranking political official, Netanyahu reprimanded Dagan and said that his statements had undermined Israel’s efforts to fight against the Iranian nuclear program by means of the international community.
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Sharmine Narwani
04:51 PM on 01/10/2011
I agree - this is a huge story. It completely takes the wind out of the attack-Iran brigade, especially as Iran is going all "cooperative" these days. Just as an aside, when I was only practice-blogging in June 2009, Dagan came out with the same info and it was widely ignored - surprising because Netanyahu was beating the drums hard at that time too: http://mideastshuffle.com/2009/06/30/did-anyone-notice-mossads-new-outlook-on-an-iran-bomb-the-daily-star/

What this effectively does is shift the Mideast focus back onto Israel.
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jwcmass
I dream of things that never were and ask Why not
06:23 PM on 01/10/2011
It just amazes me that so many cannot see that the Palestinian Israeli conflict is the epicenter of all of the instability of the Middle East.
 
Of course when one's job DEPENDS on not seeing something, it is amazing how blind some people can get.
 
Excellent column by the way Sharmine. You have a gift for getting to the heart of a problem clearly and succinctly.
 
One thing I would encourage (and I would welcome your insight on this) is for there to be more contact between Israelis and Palestinians on a personal level -- among ordinary Israelis and Palestinians. Especially with young people.
 
I know there is SOME of this occurring, with joint Palestinian and Israeli protests at the Wall.
 
Also with Israeli human rights activists helping Palestinian farmers harvest their crops and trying to keep settlers from harassing the farmers.
 
I know this gets little coverage --- one hears only backpage items on it. However this shakes out Israelis and Palestinians are going to be neighbors for a long time.
 
Keep up the good work.
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blutopie
no longer 'chosen'
06:25 PM on 01/10/2011
Thanks for the link Sharmine - you have smartest Middle East foreign policy articles around and I read quite a few - just an extraordinarily high intellect

As you mention it I do now recall that earlier Dagan statement but the extremely high profile and timing on this one is really seems to be a knockout punch.

I really don't see how Israel and the Neocons recover their momentum after this blow

Why Dagan blew the whistle on the Israeli attack-Iran bandwagon as his parting shot I just cannot imagine. To stop an impending attack on Iran - in the short or midterm? To perhaps force the spotlight back on Palestine and try to force resolution because of a concern for Israel itself as led by the Netanyahu/Lieberman radicals?

I would love to know
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08:54 AM on 01/11/2011
This is not the first time this ONE THING has been exposed for the primitive fear mongering it is:

"Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni said a few months ago in a series of closed discussions that in her opinion that Iranian nuclear weapons do not pose an existential threat to Israel, Haaretz magazine reveals in an article on Livni to be published Friday.

Livni also criticized the exaggerated use that Prime Minister Ehud Olmert is making of the issue of the Iranian bomb, claiming that he is attempting to rally the public around him by playing on its most basic fears. Last week, former Mossad chief Ephraim Halevy said similar things about Iran. "

http://www.haaretz.com/news/livni-behind-closed-doors-iran-nukes-pose-little-threat-to-israel-1.231858

In fact this game has been going on for many decades:

"For nearly three decades we have been hearing or reading dire predictions by the officials of the United States, Israel, and their allies that Iran is on the verge of developing nuclear weapons. Such “warnings” have been common, but none has come true. "

http://original.antiwar.com/sahimi/2010/05/04/irans-ever-imminent-nukes/
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Jay-DC
04:17 PM on 01/10/2011
Frankly, I can't see how One-State for all is somehow going to destroy the Jewish identity of Israel. All that it will do is lift the Christian and Muslim identities, after being suffocated and strangled for 63 years, to the same par as the Jewish identity. All 3 have a connection to the land, and thus it must not be exclusive to one particular faith but shared by all--a truly fundamental flaw in Political Zionism.
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jwcmass
I dream of things that never were and ask Why not
03:04 PM on 01/12/2011
Well, Jay,
 
It is all a little more complex. I think many Israelis (and I am not talking about the right wing zealots) FEAR being in a minority -- mainly because of what happened for 2000 years in Europe (sadly, at the hands of Christians). Ironically, the actions their government is taking with regard to the settlements may bring about the thing they fear the most.
 
I would also add that it is important to realize that there are two strains of Zionism -- classical Zionism, and Revisionist Zionism.
 
Classical Zionists are mostly non-religious (Yitzhak Rabin is a good example of this group) and are more open to ending the Occupation and allowing a separate Palestinian state.
 
As I said before, they tend to be nonreligious. (Just to give one example of something that would likely not happen today, when Israel captured the Old City in 1967, one of the soldiers hoisted an Israeli flag atop the Dome of the Rock. Then Defense Minister Moshe Dayan IMMEDIATELY ordered the flag be taken down. He wanted to send a message to the Muslim community that Israel was concerned with allowing Muslims to control their sacred sites and to have freedom of worship.)
 
There is another strain of Zionism -- Revisionist Zionism (and Netanyahu is a PERFECT example of one who follows this ideology). Revisionist Zionism tends to be more religious, and attaches significance to what they call "Samaria and Judea" (the West Bank) as part of "Greater Israel" -- which should belong exclusively to Israel. They are MUCH less willing to compromise on Jerusalem, and many are opposed to ANY Palestinian state. They STRONGLY support the plan of settlement and colonization of the Occupied Territories. (they want the land, but haven't figured out what to do about the fact that if Israel DOES take the land, then the nation will soon have a Palestinian demographic MAJORITY -- so most I have encountered tend to ignore this important point.)
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Jay-DC
07:47 PM on 01/12/2011
You must take me for a fool. Do not share a moment in Moshe Dayan's life with a conclusion that Israel wants to send a message to the Muslim Community they have the freedom to worship...The only message Dayan sent to the Muslims was that they were no longer able to live as equals, and that for at least the next 43 years those same Muslims would be forced from their homes, living in constant fear that IDF, Police and Settlers like Dayan himself, will forcefully enter their home and rid them of their possessions.

Your Revisionist Zionism is not limited to individuals like Netanyahoo, but from the Left too. How many Left wing Israeli PM's built in Jerusalem after 67? All of them. Zionism is Zionism--all sides of the prism want to see a purely Jewish nation created on land inhabited by non-Jews, and as a consequence are ALL willing to trample on the rights of the non-Jews and even imprison them for decades, all for the safety and security of the Jewish state.

If you want to build a home somewhere, build one where someone hasn't already.

It is too late for the Zionist Dream to ever come to fruition, without genocide of a quarter of its population, and about 5 million more. under its administration. Genocide is the only other option than a One State. Two-State solution died in '48: never split a home
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NTT
Fighting rants with facts
12:29 PM on 01/10/2011
Israel-haters always mistake their own wishful thinking for objective reality. They “treat” themselves by daydreaming some “Israel-is-doomed” scenario; and, since they don’t actually have much imagination, they “just can’t see how Israel is getting out of this one”. It’s playing poker against a dead hand: one wins every time.

For 62 years now, they’ve been “predicting” that Israel’s demise is near… just around the corner… or the next corner… or the next… Every time, the “prediction” was based on an equally unimaginative “assessment” of Israel’s options. Thus, in 1967 Nasser blockaded Israel’s trade routes to the Eastern hemisphere & mobilized his army at Israel's border. The “assessment” was that this will half-strangle Israel economically; Israel would "have to" grow weaker, thus allowing Nasser to decide when to attack & “finish it off”. Israel “was trapped”. Israel, however, turned the tables. It did what Nasser did NOT expect – and dealt him a shameful defeat.

In 1990, Saddam Hussein attacked Israel with “Scud” missiles. The “assessment” was that Israel will "have to" retaliate, which will untangle the US-led coalition, save Saddam & turn everybody against Israel. Israel “was trapped”. Again Israel did the unexpected: it did NOT retaliate.

Some people never learn. So again we hear that “Israel is trapped”. It "has to" do that… or do that… and it'll lose either way. Really folks: if you ARE going to daydream, can’t you at least use your imagination a bit better?
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jwcmass
I dream of things that never were and ask Why not
01:00 PM on 01/10/2011
I don't deny that Israel will survive -- what is at question is what kind of a state will it be?
 
Remember Israel was created to be both a Jewish state and a democracy.
 
However, the actions of building illegal settlements on occupied land set in motion a chain of events, which, combined with the population demographics make a two-state solution much more difficult (which is the stated goal of the settler movement).
 
And this, if unchanged (and the current government shows no sign of changing this policy of illegal colonization -- indeed if it tried, it would fall) will result in a single state with a PALESTINIAN MAJORITY.
 
This will mean one of two things. 1) Either Israel will deny Palestinians citizenship (there have already been attempts by Israel's third largest party to strip Israeli Palestinians of their citizenship) -- in which case Israel would become a de jure apartheid state, and thus will no longer be able to claim to be a democratic one,
 
OR
 
2) Israel will grant citizenship to the Palestinians, and the Palestinians will eventually be able to use their majority to gain power democratically. In which case Israel might still be a Jewish homeland, but it will not be a Jewish STATE. (by which one assumes, although it has never been made clear just what it MEANS to be a Jewish state, a state with a Jewish MAJORITY.)
 
 
Either way, Israel faces some MAJOR changes -- and they may not be for the better.
 
In many ways, Israel (at about the same age as the US when our crisis began to approach) faces a crossroads similar to that of the United States -- in the case of the US the issue was the fundamental contradiction posed by being created as a nation where "all men are created equal" -- yet there was a large segment of Americans who were legally NOT persons, but property -- i.e. slaves.
 
The element of racism is present, and the two countries were DEEPLY divided over THE major issue.
 
You know how things turned out here -- who KNOWS how Israel will face its crossroads.
 
But there is no escaping facing it --- Israel can only delay it (which seems to be the goal of the current Prime Minister).
 
It is true that the Palestinians also have to face their own crossroads, but there is little they can do because they have no real power to do anything. They are the occupied, NOT the occupiers.
01:31 AM on 01/11/2011
"Israel will grant citizenshi­p to the Palestinia­ns". I love that.
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01:13 PM on 01/10/2011
"Israel-hat­ers ...blah blah blah."

lots of projection, name calling, etc., and unrelated to the discussion.
10:55 AM on 01/10/2011
Just do it!
10:11 AM on 01/10/2011
I truly don't think turmoil on any level is going to be enough to inspire the international community to take additional steps. If turmoil or massive death were sufficient to inspire intervention, the entire world (including the U.S., Britain, and Israel) wouldn't have stood by and watched the Rwandan genocide happen, politicians and journalists wouldn't have clucked and fussed and essentially done nothing during Israel's more recent war on Lebanon and massacre of Gaza. However, if one could get more military leaders and politicans to say loudly (without meaningless faux-backtracking such as Petraeus did) that the conflict in some way harms those other countries, Britain, the U.S. France, fill-in-the-blank then maybe, maybe turmoil will have an impact. Then again, that's an already eminently obvious fact and the "peace process" continues to move at a snail's pace, if at all. And even though it feels sometimes like some change (any change) would be better than nothing, I can't bring myself to get enthusiastic about another intifada. It would be Palestinians primarily dying and suffering if one were declared, so that's a decision they have to make for themselves - whether or not occupation and degradation is preferable or not to the risk of death.
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Sharmine Narwani
11:29 AM on 01/10/2011
Take heart.

Just out today: "EU diplomats say East Jerusalem should be treated as Palestinian capital" http://www.haaretz.com/print-edition/news/eu-diplomats-say-east-jerusalem-should-be-treated-as-palestinian-capital-1.336109

In an unprecedented report, EU heads in Ramallah and Jerusalem recommend operative steps that "constitute the foundations for sanctions against Israel."

These include boycotting Israeli businesses in - and Israeli goods from - East Jerusalem, re-opening the PLO office in EJ, placing EU officials at Israeli demolitions/evacuations of Pal homes in EJ and at court hearings on these issues, EU interventions when peaceful Pals are arrested or intimidated by Israeli authorities, and..."recommends that EU officials and politicians refuse to visit Israeli government offices that are located beyond the Green Line and that they decline any Israeli security in the Old City and elsewhere in East Jerusalem."

With the understanding that the Peace Game is not fooling anyone anymore, tensions on the rise, and a US role in peace brokering all but dead, it is inevitable that the international community will start to apply pressure on the intransigent party in this conflict. The real breakthrough, however, will be in the enforcement of UN Security Council resolutions. If the EU backs the UNSC, we will have reached the tipping point in this conflict - and it will be up to Israel to decide whether to accept a fair two-state situation or risk its long-term viability.
09:14 PM on 01/10/2011
Thank you for linking the article - it's very interesting and heartening. I hope that this won't be the last we hear of this report and that some concrete improvements come out of it. I am still hoping (without much optimism) that Israel will accept a two state solution that is viable but information and changes like those give me hope that even if Israel refuses to compromise for a second state, the international community will force them to accept Palestinians as equal citizens when they outnumber the Jewish Israelis in a few years. I suppose that's a large part of the reason I am not very optimistic anymore about Israel's ability or desire to make peace. I would never have guessed that even upon hearing they are already outnumbered if you include Gaza and will be outnumbered even just in the West Bank and E.J. in five years, they would continue to play games and drag out the occupation. I would have guessed they would choose Israel's Jewish majority over the settlements.
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BcemXAHA
אני כלום בלעדיהם
08:25 AM on 01/10/2011
*1) final borders; 2) status of Jerusalem 3) the right of return for Palestinian refugees; 4) sovereignty issues, including water and air space rights; security, etc*

Pardon me, would Security for Israel be part of the etc part?

Perhaps this is part of the reason why the Palestinians can't gain their independence, perhaps if they saw that there is another party that needs to get their demands met, that Israel is not going anywhere, that it's not a one sided conversation, there would be a chance for their independence?

Things that make one go hmmmm
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Sharmine Narwani
08:50 AM on 01/10/2011
I did not make up the core issues - they are what they are, nobody disputes these. One does not negotiate over security as one does with land, water rights, repatriation, etc. It isn't a tangible commodity. Obviously all parties would aim to ensure their mutual security, otherwise there would be no point to a final agreement, would there?

You are transfixed with a Hasbara concept that is thrown out at every opportunity, ie, that Israel must do "X, Y and Z" in order to ensure its "Security." Biggest hoax ever. Israel does not steal Palestinian water for its "security." It does not confiscate olive groves for its "security." It doesn't even build walls for "security" - otherwise why would it encourage Jewish women and children to go live on the "dangerous" side of that wall?

I suspect you spend an awful lot of time "Going hmmm."
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BcemXAHA
אני כלום בלעדיהם
09:32 AM on 01/10/2011
If the Palestinians genuinely want peace They will need to understand a very basic, very simple concept, that concept is that they lost, Israel won, the losing party never dictates the terms of negotiations, it is the victors who do that. The sooner that the Palestinians (and you) realize this, the sooner they stop fantasizing about "returning" to Israel (knowing full well that it will never materialize), the sooner they'll gain their independence. If South Sudan managed it, certainly so too can the Palestinians.
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lbsaltzman
Permaculture and Sustainability
01:20 PM on 01/10/2011
It is the Palestinianns who should be worried about security. They have suffered at the hands of one of the best armed militaries in the world supplemented by Israeli police forces and settler paramilitaries. Who is guaranteeing Palestine's security?
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BcemXAHA
אני כלום בלעדיהם
01:30 PM on 01/10/2011
* Who is guaranteei­ng Palestine'­s security? *

Oh dear, I don't know, hamas? fatah?
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