It's official. There is no longer any serious "cost" for defying the United States in the global arena. Unable to win wars or deliver diplomatic coups - and struggling to maintain our economic equilibrium - Washington has lost the fundamental tools for global leadership. And no place does this impotence manifest more vividly than the modern Middle East.
Our pointless and protracted wars in Afghanistan and Iraq will be the last time we will launch a major battle in the region. That massive show of flexing brawn over brain burst a global perception bubble about our intentions, capabilities and reason.
This credibility was compromised further with our irrational support of Israel's attacks on Lebanon and Gaza in 2006 and 2008/9 respectively. And by the double standards employed over Israel's violations of international law and its illegal nuclear weapons stash - particularly when viewed against the backdrop of our startling rhetoric over Iran's nuclear program.
But nothing highlights our irrelevance more than two recent developments:
1) The US's inability today to convene even perfunctory peace talks between Israelis and Palestinians, let alone push through a negotiated solution - and this after 19 years of a "US-sponsored" peace process.
2) The US's inability to achieve a resolution with Iran over its nuclear program. The only breakthrough in this long-winded effort to tame Iran's nuclear aspirations was struck by Turkey and Brazil last week.
In short, the US seems incapable of resolving even a traffic dispute in the Middle East. It is Qatar that stepped in to broker a deal between Hezbollah and the Lebanese government in 2008, and is knee deep in negotiating a solution to the conflict in Darfur. Syria helped gain the release of prisoners in Iran and Gaza. And now Turkey and Brazil have cajoled Iran into accepting an agreement that the US, France, England, Germany, Russia and China could not.
We have been rendered irrelevant, despite our insistence on involving ourselves with every peep heard in the Mideast.
The Iran Nuclear Fiasco
After pushing for the nuclear swap deal with Iran since last October, we did an about turn and scorned the very same "confidence building" measure we had touted while simultaneously accusing Iran of bad intentions and negotiations trickery.
And we openly sneered at the valiant effort of two important UN Security Council member states - one a NATO-member and the other the largest economy in our Latin American backyard - to troubleshoot on behalf of the global community. The very next day, we childishly chose to undermine this important breakthrough by announcing an agreement on UN Security Council draft sanctions against Iran.
The fact is that no-one other than England, France, Germany and Israel seems to want us to win this fight anymore. This is increasingly being viewed as a David vs Goliath standoff, with Iran as the David, and its nuclear energy program a sacrificial lamb that is meant to appease our substantial ego as the world's remaining superpower.
Pundits and analysts are even starting to argue for making room for a nuclear Iran - all thanks to our unwavering scrutiny of this issue: here and here.
Indian External Affairs Minister S. M. Krishna said in Tehran two days after the nuclear swap deal was struck: "India praises Iran for fighting for its interests... We are both developing nations and we should make use of each other's capabilities and experiences in order to make progress."
These so-called "Middle States" like Brazil, India and Turkey are regional economic and political hegemons with collective clout - certainly more so than the waning authority of our European partners who are dealing with weak economies and uninspired geopolitical thinking, much like our own.
Who needs us when all we seem to bring to the table is bluster, threats and our dubious "hard power?" The "regional hegemons" have demonstrated that the cleverly-wielded soft power of diplomacy goes a lot further in easing tensions globally and creating vibrant trade and economic conditions across borders.
No Consequence to Defying the US
In a very significant perception shift, many of these countries are beginning to realize that there is no longer a "cost" to ignoring US threats.
This reality is swiftly becoming apparent in the Middle East. What have several rounds of Security Council sanctions done to harm Iran thus far? Iran has just learned to be more self-sufficient and our constant bullying has earned it a permanent global podium from which it has rallied impressive developing nation alliances from countries that admire its struggle and resolve.
And the Arab world, once hostile to Iran and its brand of Islamic government, has also warmed to the idea of a new regional worldview that rejects an aggressive American role and embraces a homegrown narrative that more honestly addresses their problems. Hence the growing influence of the Iran, Syria, Hezbollah and Hamas mindset - bolstered by their good relations with rising regional stars like Turkey and Qatar, and the widespread support of the Arab and Muslim Street.
But more importantly, traditional US allies like Saudi Arabia and Lebanon are slowly shifting strategies. Both have sought rapprochement with Syria and appeasement of Iran in some form this past year. Lebanon has defended Hezbollah's right to maintain its weapons so long as a belligerent Israel exists down south. Saudi Arabia and Syria worked together to ensure a smooth, crisis-free election in Lebanon last June, and helped broker the formation of a government in its aftermath - with Iran giving its blessings along the way. And there is increased disunity amongst the six pro-US Arab nations of the Persian Gulf on whether Iran poses a serious threat in the region.
Perceptions Altered - Can We Adapt Fast Enough?
A recent article in Foreign Policy magazine by David Aaron Miller argues that the Mideast climate has changed and therefore the US should examine its participation in regional affairs, specifically the peace process. Miller also warns:
"The broader Middle East is littered with the remains of great powers that wrongly believed they could impose their will on small tribes. Iraq, Afghanistan, Iran ... need I continue? Small tribes will always be meaner, tougher, and longer-winded than U.S. diplomats because it's their neighborhood and their survival; they will always have a greater stake in the outcome of their struggle than the great power thousands of miles away with many other things to do."
As we contract economically and our appetite for waging wars shrinks, those who resist our policies in the Middle East can flex their influence with fair certainty that we will not and can not retaliate effectively.
With no real cost to bear, the sympathy of the larger international community, and - now - a genuine compromise to wave in front of detractors, Iran is sitting pretty, leaving us to look like a churlish, patronizing bully that chooses to lead with club in hand.
In a rapidly changing Middle East, this fight with Iran is just churning up trouble for us and underlining our own shrinking relevance on the world stage. Iran's deal with Turkey and Brazil and our subsequent sanctions threat has demonstrated conclusively that the US is not necessary for brokering deals, and may in fact even be an impediment to conflict resolution.
And this perception makes our regional allies uncomfortable enough to investigate their options - specifically, dealing with those we call our foes. Regional state and non-state actors will be taking note of the against-all-odds success of the tripartite deal, and wondering if they should look more locally for Arab-Israeli peacebrokering too.
The US needs to take a page out of Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's foreign policy playbook before taking another false step in the Mideast. This is geopolitical thought leadership the likes of which we haven't seen in more than half a century. Diplomacy 101 you could call it. I'd like to call it our "last chance to practice what we preach."
Follow Sharmine Narwani on Twitter: www.twitter.com/snarwani
That makes the world a whole lot more dangerous.
I hope the guy wakes up or he will definitely be a one termer.
In Iraq and Afghanistan, we need to tailor make a new democracy for these countries. A new democracy that is suitable for a country that has been under an oppressive form of control for decades. The US needs to do this before they leave.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bc7C3KvbCRs
And the specific form of Democracy:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkFdhaUh-0s
For the Middle East in general, how about a redesign of the UN Security Council where Arab nations have a permanent seat.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G-_l2z8Zm8Y
Of course, such a thing would not be possible unless it were accompanied by a lot of supporting actions and initiatives.
I love the foreshadowing you mention with Iran, Brazil and Turkey. The US are not going to be in the middle of everything major by the middle of this century, not even in twenty years.
Iran should have nuclear warheads as a deterrent from the US and Israeli ambitions regarding the Middle East. Iraq, the neighbor of Iran, was destroyed by the US juggernaut in 5 years, in large part by neoconservatives. Iran realizes they were also on the Axis of Evil list, which would make any adroit nation work diligently, to obtain a means of deterrence.
No need to twist words here...
You seem to have taken off where Roger Cohen started in his May 20th op-ed,
"The West’s ability to impose solutions to global issues like Iran’s nuclear program has unraveled. America, engaged in two inconclusive wars in Muslim countries, cannot afford a third. The first decade of the 21st century has delineated the limits of U.S. power: It is great but no longer determinative."
So, for that, some sobering realities to recalibrate US foreign policy on.
Is anybody listening? Yes (I'm thinking of people like Limbert). Do they call the shots? No.
But, am I to take it that you are not in a agreement with analysts (Juan Cole, Gary Sick, and several others) that saw the US involved in the deal via Ankara and Brasilia?
http://www.juancole.com/2010/05/iran-threatens-to-pull-out-of-nuclear-exchange-deal-over-new-un-sanctions.html
This makes its rebuke more bizarre, admittedly, but I'd speculate one wing of the admin just undercut the other - or concur with Prof. Cole that this was last-minute horsetrading with Israel offering up sanctions to assuage a trigger finger and/or for "promises" to move forward on talks.
If so, as this article points out so lucidly, this makes the moving of the goalposts even more folly, since in Bibi the US has Lucy holding the football.
The author neglects to question why Iran made a hasty deal with Brazil and Turkey working through twelve hours of straight negotiations. This deal was confirmed exactly one day before Hillary Clinton's announced that the P5+1 had reached agreement on sanctions. In fact, the terms of this agreement is similar to the deal Iran backed away from six months ago. Perhaps, it is the opposite of what the author suggests. Iran counted on successfully playing the P5+1 against each other, as they had done in the past. When it did not work this time, they had to back down. That would be a testament of U.S. progress in its ability to work with other nations.
Such claims by the author demonstrates complete ignorance regarding the internal dynamics of Iran. The country is has been in a state of economic crisis. Inflation has been over 30% during Ahmadinejad's first term. This rate is expected to further increase. Unemployment in some areas is as high as 45%. The Iranian people, having been fed up with the mismanagement of the country by its government poured into the voting polls last June to change their government. Their votes were disregarded and Ahmadinejad remained President through fraudulent elections followed by a militarization to stop the people from protesting. This was followed by brutal crackdowns, killings, unlawful executions, imprisonment, torture and rape in prisons of peaceful protesters.
These human rights violations continue through today. The Iranian government is in power utilizing brutal force and the country's oil money that rightfully belong to the people. The Iranian regime is hardly a poster child for others to support; unless they are hypocrites and only care about their self-interest and have absolute disregard for ordinary Iranian people.
UK's Labour Party has long been co-opted by Pro-Israel financial backers like Blair's buddy Lord Levy. When George Galloway tried to get justice for Palestine he was kicked out of the party.
Not sure about Sarkozy's coterie, but it is no doubt in the same mold as Labour's.
Germany? Maybe institutionalized guilt?
Great article.
Hi alexa, wise and thoughtful comment, as usual.
All of which plays out before the international audience, but not in the USA as our media fosters an image of the Israeli occupation far at odds with what the rest of the world sees daily on the satellite channels. It's sadly pathetic that so many around the world are aware of the hypocrisy of our leaders (even Obama) when it comes to Palestine, Israeli nukes, & the loud chorus of war-mongering lobbies & vested interests, esp. in the US Congress. Thank you , Sharmine for yet another of your astute pieces about the region. It is sad that the American dream has come to this sad state of affairs, not only for so many in the occupied regions, but also for the American people who can't afford these wars or occupations, pragmatically or morally.
I wanted to point out something interesting that I think is happening in the Mideast very recently. I think decision makers there are looking to other regional players for support and alliances in a much more proactive way than in the past - even engaging with foes out of necessity. This is critical, because it seems the US is being marginalized whenever a job really need to get done.
If this trend continues, I don't think it matters much what the US media and political body thinks or says about Israel, occupation, peace prospects, etc. If the Mideast and int'l community perceives us as being largely impotent - all talk, no action - we will be bypassed.
And that is when the region will start to get really interesting. There is a new narrative that is being formed in the region - a homegrown one for a change. Will have to wait and see where it settles, but my bet is that Syria-Turkey will take the lead in defining what's coming. And you can imagine that Israel will not play a big part :-)
Unfortunately the Jewish lobby is this country is very powerful....you see what happens whenever it appears the administration criticises Israel....all hell breaks loose...on some level it's a no win situation for the U.S.
Thank you Sharmine for responding to my comments. Your description of a new narrative being formed that is "homegrown" by Syria-Turkey & others in the region is so hopeful for the peoples who have been caught up in several centuries of European colonialism, 20th century fascism & war leading to disenfranchisement of Palestine, US oil imperialism, Israeli occupation, illegal nukes & bullying. Where will it lead? I hope to something much better than the Europeans & Americans have foisted on the region. It didn't have to be that way, if we had acted according to our ideals & respect for the rights of others. I am glad that you consider the regional actors moving toward numerous bilateral, trilateral or other regional accords will bypass & make very outmoded the US media, political machinations that have favored one group only with a cruel relentlessness, creating nothing but havoc, war-mongering & violence. Saner voices need to lead the way, but they won't be the major powers who have betrayed any trust that they might have earned by encouraging resolution, reconciliation, equal rights for all peoples.
The truth is that almost every US adminstration in the past 60 years is responsible for too many deaths and destruction through out the world and naturally all of it is now coming back due to law of action and reaction (what goes round, comes round). Therefore it is reasonable to predict that US should expect very very long period of hate and despise from all over the world which is just begining.