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Shawn Lawrence Otto

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Another Climate Denial Argument Bites the Dust

Posted: 10/20/11 07:59 PM ET

The classic mark of antiscience thinking is the cherry picking of sciency-sounding bits of data to support a rhetorical argument designed to convince someone of a predetermined conclusion. Rhetorical arguments are OK and are the way most of us navigate life to get what we need. But they become antiscience when we use them to attempt to refute data-based arguments by only presenting the data that support our position, instead of also considering the data that do not support it.

The urban heat island effect was first noted in 1833 by Luke Howard, an amateur meteorologist, who noticed that urban London was at night about 3.7o F warmer than the surrounding countryside. One of the favorite arguments of climate change deniers is that the urban heat island effect is unduly biasing global temperature readings.

Because of this, climate change deniers have been especially excited about the prospects for the BEST project (Berkeley Earth Surface Group, a part of the Novim Group, which is friendly to the idea of geoengineering) headed by physicist Richard Muller. Judith Curry is also involved, as is 2011 physics Nobel laurate Saul Perlmutter. It is funded by, among others, the Koch Brothers. The project's goal is to create a separate global temperature estimate, and to carefully examine whether urban heating has had any impact on global temperatures. To do this, they analyzed temperature data from 39,028 meauring stations around the world.

The bombshell is that this Koch-funded group has not been able to show that the urban heat island effect has had any influence on temperature measurements of global warming. In fact, the group found in a paper just released that both urban and rural areas "show significant warming."

This is significant because the BEST group was widely expected to take a contrarian stand.

Another favorite climate change denial argument bites the dust.


Get Shawn Lawrence Otto's important new book: Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America, "a gripping analysis of America's anti-science crisis." --Starred Kirkus Review. An "incredible book" -- Starred Publishers Weekly review. Like him on Facebook. Listen to him of Science Friday. Join ScienceDebate.org to get the presidential candidates to debate science.

 
 
 

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The classic mark of antiscience thinking is the cherry picking of sciency-sounding bits of data to support a rhetorical argument designed to convince someone of a predetermined conclusion. Rhetorical...
The classic mark of antiscience thinking is the cherry picking of sciency-sounding bits of data to support a rhetorical argument designed to convince someone of a predetermined conclusion. Rhetorical...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
realpolitic
When in Rome.......
04:52 PM on 10/25/2011
Instead of reading some anti-science diatribes that she has been shilling for, Porneygal should read   Shawn Lawrence Otto's important new book: Fool Me Twice: Fighting the Assault on Science in America, "a gripping analysis of America's anti-science crisis."   Orkney and other deniers would definitely learn something.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
ClimateHawk
Think before posting.
12:28 PM on 10/25/2011
The Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature project has drafted four scientific papers setting out the main conclusions of the study to date. The papers have been submitted for peer review ...

For more information, see http://berkeleyearth.org/
12:16 PM on 10/25/2011
So why is this 'Press Release' important? You know it's a PRESS RELEASE and not a published peer reviewed piece of science don't you?

Anywho, the next IPCC meeting starts next month and there is ZERO chance of getting anyone to take these folks seriously so they needed something to take with them to show that they aren't 100% wrong.

Well, even if it is just a press release of a bunch of guys with excel spreadsheets using questionable math practices to massages a corrupt set of data to come up with a preconceived conclusion.

But no need to worry, I'm sure this press release will be highligted in the next IPCC report instead of all the published science that shows that there really isn't any signifigant warming trends based upon things like sattelites and such nonsense like that.

By the way, is the planet warming? Sure.

20,000 Years ago Canada was 97% ice year round. Now it's not. So sure, the planet is warming.
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qwert1234
haha, charade you are
12:53 PM on 10/25/2011
do you have any reason to believe it wont pass peer-review? do you have any reason to believe the final paper, after being reviewed, will show conclusions that are different from where they currently stand now?
06:08 PM on 10/25/2011
I really couldn't say whether or not this paper will pass peer review.

All I can say is that it is VERY odd (and not very scientific) that folks like you, the the HP, and many other liberal "I Hate Humans" media outlets are heralding a paper on climate science that HASN'T been peer reviewed or published.

Now I can say, that this paper also states that according to the data, temps have flatlined since 2000 which is a REAL problem for you warmists.
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blackwind
Relax, nothing is under control
04:29 PM on 10/25/2011
"20,000 Years ago Canada was 97% ice year round. Now it's not. So sure, the planet is warming."
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
That would indicate that Canada warmed in the past, it says nothing of current temperature trends.
06:10 PM on 10/25/2011
So in your esteemed opinion, the only thing that matters on our planet are temperature trends that happen during your lifetime?

That seems a little self centered to me.

Oh, and by the way, this study also concludes that temps have flatlined since 2000.

Now that is a trend that'll leave a mark. OUCH!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jimboy71
Hen Diapheron Heautoi
10:36 AM on 10/25/2011
Tom Harris, of the public relations front ICSC has been eviscerated here for mendatious claims and shoddy logic more than once.

Anything this long-time PR spin doctor, whose career highlights include shilling for big oil and big tobacco says must be taken with a salt mine's worth of salt.

Any book, research or paper that he endorses must be immediately brought to the most thorough of reviews, because he has entirely lax standards about the kind of "science" and "journalism" he will accept.

Case in point his ongoing support of Dr. Bob Carter, the man who thinks it is ok to draw fictitious plot lines through graphs to make a positive trend appear negative. Tom Harris has so far refused to address this issue, nor has he renounced Carter's de facto fraud publicly.

One must only ask why?

http://deepclimate.org/tag/tom-harris/
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
realpolitic
When in Rome.......
02:42 AM on 10/25/2011
According to the U.S. Climate Change research Program: U.S. average temperature has risen more than 2°F over the past 50 years and is projected to rise more in the future; how much more depends primarily on the amount of heat-trapping gases emitted globally and how sensitive the climate is to those emissions. Precipitation has increased an average of about 5 percent over the past 50 years. Projections of future precipitation generally indicate that northern areas will become wetter, and southern areas, particularly in the West, will become drier. The amount of rain falling in the heaviest downpours has increased approximately 20 percent on average in the past century, and this trend is very likely to continue, with the largest increases in the wettest places. Many types of extreme weather events, such as heat waves and regional droughts, have become more frequent and intense during the past 40 to 50 years. The destructive energy of Atlantic hurricanes has increased in recent decades. The intensity of these storms is likely to increase in this century. In the eastern Pacific, the strongest hurricanes have become stronger since the 1980s, even while the total number of storms has decreased. Sea level has risen along most of the U.S. coast over the past 50 years, and will rise more in the future. Cold-season storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are likely to become stronger and more frequent. Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly and this is very likely to continue. http://www.globalchange.gov/publications/reports/scientific-assessments/us-impacts/full-report/national-climate-change
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06:48 AM on 10/25/2011
Is this the same group that found the Alien Crash Site in New Mexico, USA?
07:08 AM on 10/25/2011
What, the Federal government?

You got nothin'.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
realpolitic
When in Rome.......
03:36 PM on 10/25/2011
We know when you see real science you get physically ill, Orkney Porkney!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MikeWebster
Always happy.
12:47 AM on 10/25/2011
I wonder how many more times it will have to bite the dust before we see the last of it. For example, people have taken out the weather stations Anthony Watts objected to in the past, and found the temperature rise unchanged.

The problem with these denial canards, is not only do they have to bite the dust, they need to be beheaded, staked in the heart, and burned in an industrial incinerator. And even then, we're going to have to keep seeing them repeated over and over again by liars and fools.
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gallon
Those who fail to remember history are, um
07:19 AM on 10/25/2011
Use a silver stake. And maybe keep a bag of garlic handy.
08:58 PM on 10/25/2011
They need to be ignored. Simply don't rise to the bait; responding to their comments only encourages them
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StephenBP
What's he building in there?
09:34 PM on 10/24/2011
If we had spent as much money on alternate energy and energy conservation as we did on useless things such as subsidies for corrupt corporations and politicians, oversized, over powered vehicles, and fruitless, pointless wars, we probably could have figuratively starved the all the world’s oil billionaires into poverty by now and they would be the ones on the streets today complaining about how unfair life is.

And the price of food wouldn't be steadily and rapidly rising, Texas wouldn't be turning into a desert, and northerly agricultural lands wouldn't be washing away due to flooding.

A sensible course of energy capture has not been possible as long as the long line of fossil fuel plutocrats have had the power that they have had for over a century. Digging crud out of the ground and burning it has proven to be a highly lucrative business for those shrewd enough or just lucky enough to help build or manage the infrastructure needed to make it happen. But now it is time to put away childish things and the fossil fuel fire worshippers need to realize that they have to find other ways to be a burden on the planet. The fire worshippers will kick, scream, and deceive, but science is against them and, short of destroying science, they cannot hold out forever. We've run out of storage capacity for their waste. The age of fire is about to come to a close, with or without the consent of the fire worshippers.
09:49 PM on 10/24/2011
Right on, SBP!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MrBIgp
If I'm wrong, please show me
04:30 PM on 10/24/2011
Seems to me global warming skeptics aren't arguing that the average temperature isn't increasing, they are arguing that 1. We don't know how much is caused by man. 2. The cost of significantly reducing co2 isn't worth the benefit. 3. We as likely to be better off in a warmer world as we are to be worse off. I haven't heard anyone use the urban heat sink argument in years.
You are not going to change anyone's mind by calling them "deniers" or "science deniers".
If you want to convince the American to spend trillions of dollars on c02 reduction, name calling is not the way to do it.
06:26 PM on 10/24/2011
So, what you're saying is don't use the same tactics as the deniers use.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MrBIgp
If I'm wrong, please show me
08:25 PM on 10/24/2011
There is a cliche we all learned when we were children that addresses that point.
07:52 PM on 10/24/2011
1. "We don't know how much is caused by man?"

According to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, it's a “settled fact” that “the Earth system is warming and that much of this warming is very likely due to human activities.” Every science academy in the world agrees with them and so does the shrinking and cooling of the upper atmosphere, the nights which are warming faster than days, the winters which are warming faster than summers, the higher latitudes (toward the poles) which are warming faster than lower latitudes ... all evidence pointing to us.

2. "The cost of significantly reducing co2 isn't worth the benefit."

You mean the benefit of ensuring a livable planet? The cost of inaction is overwhelmingly worse than the manageable costs of reduction. Also historically, technological innovation has been one of the primary drivers of economic growth.

3. "We as likely to be better off in a warmer world..."

Tell that to your grandchildren.
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StephenBP
What's he building in there?
11:24 AM on 10/24/2011
Lotteries overall are losing propositions.
They are very similar to climate denialism and denialists in that regard.

Meteorologists cannot predict next Sunday's weather with much certainty, but climatologists can predict with great certainty that January in the northern hemisphere will be colder than July.

Want to bet on it?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jimboy71
Hen Diapheron Heautoi
03:43 PM on 10/24/2011
Yet 50% of Americans seriously think winning the lottery is a viable retirement plan, if only they play frequently enough...because a cousin of an aunt's mother's dog walker's son-in law won once...true story.

What all of this really displays is the shocking ignorance of statistics and percentages (and math in general) in the American public.

People literally look at the one in three number for cancer as good odds they will not develop it, but think that buying 100 lottery tickets in a lotter where the odds are 123 million to one, that they have a great chance of winning.

It is breathtaking ignorance.
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Hitchcockcameo
In the shadows, directing your every move.
08:56 PM on 10/24/2011
This reminded me of a lottery statistic I read once, slightly off topic. If you drive more than 10 miles to purchase your lottery ticket, you are statistically more likely to die in a car crash on the way to purchase that ticket than to win said lottery.

that is all. Carry on.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
MikeWebster
Always happy.
12:57 AM on 10/25/2011
I've heard gambling called a tax on the innumerate. I personally find that a very callous way of describing it.
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10:55 AM on 10/24/2011
I've always thought that if climate scientist could predict the future, they would be playing the lottery a lot more.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Katmandu01
11:44 AM on 10/24/2011
Because they're scientists and as scientists they understand mathematical probablility. Anyone who understands mathematical probablility knows that buying lottery tickets is a complete waste of money.
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11:54 AM on 10/24/2011
And the odds of any global warming scientist getting the future climate correct is still just 50/50.
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03:24 PM on 10/24/2011
Actually I don't doubt what you say, I reject the extreamism that goes along with it. A 0.01% increase in co2 is irrelivant. We're kidding ourselves to think bulbs with mercury are cleaner then those without. Sure we need to reduce co2 output, but not in an extreamist way as we are doing now. I would be all for cars with nuclear batteries that would power your car for 20 year and at night, plug the car in your house to power your home and sell juice back to the power company.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jimboy71
Hen Diapheron Heautoi
03:45 PM on 10/24/2011
And I've always thought that people who make statements like this are completely mislead about predictive modelling, but there you have it.
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04:15 PM on 10/24/2011
I guess I just don't have the faith to believe them like you do. However you could prove what you believe to convert me as I do have an open mind.

Tell me what the crystal ball sees for the climate 6 month from now, and 1 year, 2.5 years, 5 years, 10 years, 15 years. If the data matches your predictions, then we know that predictive modeling is right and I'll never say another word against so-called "global warming".
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StephenBP
What's he building in there?
10:38 AM on 10/24/2011
Consider these facts.

The Antarctic sea ice extent has been at or near record extent in the past few summers;
The Arctic has not rebounded in recent years but instead, the overall volume of ice, and the amount of old ice is steadily decreasing. The status of polar bears is a constant nearly irrelevant distraction constatly thrown up by the Fossil Fuel Fire Worshippers. The sea level has been steadily rising since 1900 at a rate of 1 to 2.5 millimeters per year. In fact, since 1992 new methods of satellite altimetry using the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite indicate a rate of rise of 3 millimeters per year. Cholera and malaria levels are influenced by a multitude of factors besides temperature, so it is a perfect red herring for denialists to use to hide their trails. Scientists now say Mount Kilimanjar¬o will be ice free in 30 to 40 years. Global temperatures have been steadily rising. Last year tied for the hottest on record. Still, right wing denial extremists insist that it is cooling. The Mueller study shows that the temperature is rising. Still the denial extremists insist that it is cooling.

In fact, denial extremists seem to be nearly incapable of recognizing truth, or spreading truth. They are very good at spreading mud, innuendo, slander, and all sorts of evil. Truth, however, is not their strong point.

We need to Phase out Fire. We are too numerous as a species to be relying on fire for our energy.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
realpolitic
When in Rome.......
02:40 AM on 10/25/2011
Excellent post, that corrects R2's propaganda piece.
HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Richard2
10:01 AM on 10/24/2011
"Consider these facts:

The Antarctic sea ice extent has been at or near record extent in the past few summers; the Arctic has rebounded in recent years since the low point in 2007; polar bears are thriving; the sea level is not showing acceleration and is actually dropping; cholera and malaria are failing to follow global warming predictions; Mount Kilimanjaro-melt fears are being made a mockery by gains in snow cover; global temperatures have been holding steady for a decade or more as many scientists are predicting global cooling is ahead; deaths because of extreme weather are radically declining; global tropical cyclone activity is near historic lows; the frequency of major U.S. hurricanes has declined; the oceans are missing their predicted heat content; big tornadoes have dramatically declined since the 1970s; droughts are neither historically unusual nor caused by mankind; there is no evidence we are currently having unusual weather; scandals continue to rock the climate fear movement; the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has been exposed as being a hotbed of environmental activists; and scientists continue to dissent at a rapid pace." Marc Moreno in the Washington Examiner
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Katmandu01
11:40 AM on 10/24/2011
These are not facts. This is a quote from an opinion piece written by Marc Morano who runs the climate website ClimateDepot.com for the Committee for a Constructive Tomorrow, a conservative environmental think tank. It's been reprinted on several denier websites and it makes no effort to cite any credible scientific research. Is that the best you can do?
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gallon
Those who fail to remember history are, um
12:18 PM on 10/24/2011
R2 you are slipping. This piece reads like a press release from the Heartland Disinformation Institute.
07:58 AM on 10/24/2011
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tragedy_of_the_commons

The above links to an influential essay, "The Tragedy of the Commons", written in 1968 by Garrett Hardin. In it he describes how overexploitation of resources can ruin things for everyone.

The atmosphere is the ultimate commons, in this sense. A power plant operator, or motor vehicle driver, suffers zero immediate consequences from the tiny amount of CO2 they produce, but taken as a whole, civilization proves to be on a dangerous course. The only way out is through some kind of collective action that is regulatory in effect, if not necessarily in structure.

Extreme libertarian and free-market ideologies -- so commonly held today -- depend on the existence of an infinite pool of common resources, so that expansion and exploitation can continue indefinitely. They find the very existence of a problem of this nature to be offensive in ideological terms, and fight like tigers to show that it's not really there, wishing it away with one spurious talking point after another.

Nice try. But wishing won't make it so. The physical world knows nothing of our ideologies. Conservatives often accuse liberal types of living in la-la land, and ignoring reality; in this case, it is the conservative ideologues who are deliberately blinding themselves to facts they don't want to see.
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ILoveFiction
That's unbelievable!
04:01 AM on 10/24/2011
Another climate denial argument bites the dust.

That's ok. We can always make up some new ones. Orkneygal is in charge of that. It won't take her very long.

She deserves our allocades.
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gallon
Those who fail to remember history are, um
09:52 AM on 10/24/2011
All that, and she cooks too.
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StephenBP
What's he building in there?
11:16 AM on 10/24/2011
...as in... "Yeah, but she sure can cook!"

.....Graphs, books, arguments.

Julia Child got nothin on her...
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
jimboy71
Hen Diapheron Heautoi
04:00 PM on 10/24/2011
Allocade is her black knight moment.