Hillary Is In Denial: She Cannot Win Pledged Delegates

The latest delegate count is:

Barack Obama
Pledged: 1321
Superdelegates: 199
Total: 1,520

Hillary Clinton
Pledged: 1186
Superdelegates: 238
Total: 1,424

The remaining primaries cannot put either one of them over the top to 2,025. Furthermore, Obama's lead in pledged delegates is insurmountable. Of the 4,049 total delegates, about 800 are super delegates. That leaves about 3,250 elected delegates of which 2,500 have already been chosen. That means that there are only 750 delegates up for election in all the remaining primaries including Michigan and Florida if there is a do over.

Obama now leads Hillary in elected delegates by 135. Of the remaining 750 delegates remaining to be elected, she would need to win an average of a 58/42 per cent margin of victory in the remaining primaries. That would mean that she would need a 16 percentage point margin in every remaining primary. And she is not going to win some of the remaining states.

The super delegates will need to put either one into a majority of 2025 delegates. If Hillary is counting on them to do this, she is off base. That would truly divide the party and dis-enfranchise the African American vote. Furthermore, the remaining cost of the useless primary battles could be over $50 Million. That is why the analysts for all the major networks are happy to see this sickening battle go on. And that is what Hillary is counting upon. This is the media that she claims is biased against her. That media bias complaint is what the right wingers have always used falsely to make their case.

Hillary's campaign tactics are a xerox copy of Rove's campaign strategies. Rove would complain about the media bias and use terrorist scare tactics against the liberal opposition. This is the DLC approach to politics. Like Senator Lieberman, Hillary has now adopted the Republican approach to winning the primary. She would be better off making an agreement with Obama not to spend any money on the remaining primaries and give what they would have spent to a superfund to support universal health care. Unfortunately, Hillary is too selfish to allow this to happen.

Comments

[MaineMike]

I think that everyone agrees that neither candidate will have enough pledged delegates to win. This means that the super delegates will end up deciding the outcome of this primary. The big question is whether the super delegates will vote based on their own judgment or vote based on the primary/caucus results in their states. Either way, the outcome is left in the hands of the super delegates and not in the hands of the people.
What if ALL the super delegates were to make their endorsements before the Pennsylvania primary? If all the super delegate votes were cast now, neither candidate would have enough delegates to win, so the outcome would not be decided by the super delegates. Everyone would know how many additional pledged delegates would be required to really win. This way the voters would cast the remaining votes that would put one candidate over the top and win the primary.
This way the super delegates could still choose how to vote (not changing the rules), yet the final deciding votes would come from the people (democratically).

[Doofus]

The only way the Demos are going to get through this is for Obama & Clinton to run together.
Otherwise factionalization will keep the Demos from regaining the presidency and achieving a working majority in Congress. If not this, then someone had better bow out gracefully, very gracefully before it's too late. You'll know when it's too late because the townspeople will be coming after this Frankenstein's monster of a party with pitchforks & torches.

Keep in mind that it's most important to get *working* control of the Congress again, if all else fails.

[grendl]

If either one of them decides to put an army helmet on, the presidency is McCain's.

Ms. Clinton voiced her concern about the electoral college, and rightly so. The superdelegates especially are now under the microscope, for while the Constitution put into place the system of delegates to represent the people, it never allowed for the disproportionate vote which these 796 individuals wield. Now it's time to see just how undemocratic we can make the electoral system in this country.

If Barack really wants to gain momentum back he might make this point, but I don't want to tell him how to run his campaign.

Terrorists don't strike this country at 3:00 in the morning. They get a good night's rest, hop on a plane or a train or some piece of infrastructure and blow it up. Nor do they target little girls in their rooms, in suburbia.

So why did the ad show a little girl snug in her bed at 3:00 a.m.? Because the ad wanted us to associate that red phone call with the call every parent dreads about the safety of their own home and children. Soccer moms in Ohio and Texas aren't worried about Al Qaeda sneaking into their neighborhood, and slipping into their children's windows. That's not their m.o. They do things in broad daylight, showing the world how they can stand up to the evil giant America. And their attacks are few and far between spectacular as they are.

No that ad was far more insidious than many of you in the media have even acknowledged. For Hillary Clinton's people were trying to get us to make the association with a home break in, with a breach of national security. The red phone call evoked the same terror someones bedside phone ringing at three in the morning might. The first thing you think, if you're a soccer mom in Cleveland Ohio, is someone's in the house, an intruder, a criminal endangering my child.

And what race and gender are the preponderence of criminals in the criminal justice system? That's right..you can say it...

They're black. And guess who else is black?

Oh, we didn't mean to infer...

Bullshit. I mean it was a brilliant commercial, but it was just like the Willie Horton stunt, and swiftboating. The Clinton's claim that they can keep this country safe from terrorists is one thing. If that was the case, why didn't they show a family at breakfast, the time when the twin towers got hit. No, this was at night, when evil doers everywhere, and bored Huff Post bloggers lurk about, spreading their villainy everywhere.

How can she make such a claim? She accused Barack of promising false hope, to the singing of celestial choirs, well she's promising she can keep criminals out of our children's bedrooms at night. And for those who say no she isn't that commercial was just about terrorist threats, I repeat, again and again and again...

Terrorists don't attack at 3:00 in the morning. Their work would be wasted.

[designgirl04103]

Sheldon,
"That would truly divide the party and dis-enfranchise the African American vote."
I had to read this several times to realize that you actually wrote that. I cannot believe you are suggesting that the African-American vote is somehow more important than any other vote in this election. What about all of the young, old, African American, white, Hispanic, Asian, male and female voters who support Clinton? Would they not be disenfranchised if their voices were not heard and Obama was handed the nomination?? No, according to you, it's only the African-American voters who voted for Obama that are the ones who would be dis-enfranchised should the super-delegates put Hillary over the top. And all along I was naive to think this wasn't about race. Silly me, I thought this was about Democracy!!!

[KDH]

So what? Obama can't win the pledged delegates, either.

[wldnswmmr]

I think you're right that the superdelegates will decide the nomination. The math simply doesn't support any other realistic conclusion. However, that means that the nomination will not be decided by strictly "democratic" processes. Not that they have to be, because party politics are extra-Cons­titutional proceedings. Kefauver was pushed aside in 1952 despite his winning 12 out of the 15 primaries that were held that year because the party bigshots thought Stevenson was a better choice (an opinion the country did not hold at all). Clinton is the better connected of the two, and the DLC can probably engineer her choice. Then her ultra-high negatives should guarantee that she'll win just about those same "big" Blue states she's won in the primaries - California, New York, Massachusetts, maybe Ohio, maybe Pennsylvania, and lose every last remaining state in a McCain landslide. The Dems have a genius for this kind of thing.

[Serfie]

Why are the Obamanistas afraid of all 50 states and territories exercising their vote?

Why do the Obamanistas insist on Hillary quiting when the contest is so close?

Why do the Obamanistas hate democracy?

If the tables were turned, the Obamanistas would insist on going all the way to end, or at least until somebody hit the magic number.

By the way, the only Democrats who have acted like Republican thugs have been the Obamanistas, who have trumped out every right win talking point of the last 16 years in order to destroy Hillary.

You can't blame Hillary for not rolling over for all the haters.

Why are the Obamanistas hypocrites?

[desmirl]

Hilary said she and Senator McBomb-Bomb each had more experience than Obama. She's right in that each of them have had far more experience in being WARMONGERS.

[trevor01]

It must be hard for you looking at those numbers. There's no where for Obama to go. If he's as intelligent as he says he is he will concede the race and enthusiastically endorse Hillary. He'll have a future in politics worth having if he does so, If he does not. . .

[tecumseh80]

So, a lead is not a lead in your opinion? Using every negative campaign tactic in the book got her around a 10 delege win last night - and now Obama gets to counterpunch, his base will be even more energized, and Clinton will continue to ignore smaller contests. How does this hurt Obama? Please tell me where you are, for it must be nice to live in a place where up is down.

[DemandTruth]

Clinton and her supporters are not only using Republican tactics, they're living in the Republican reality now. You know, the one where up is down, hot is cold, losing is winning, and Fox is news!

There's a commenter above who spews and spits such vile, foetid hatred against Obama supporters - calling us names (as usual) and telling us we "hate democracy" and that we're hypocrites. Gee, where have I heard those lines before? Calling Obama supporters hateful as he/she regurgitates the purest, rawest, foulest hatred. I guess irony and hypocrisy are as lost on Clinton supporters as they are on Republicans.

[trevor01]

Thanks for asking. Up is up here. Hope things are good for you too.