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Sheldon Drobny

Sheldon Drobny

Posted: October 25, 2006 12:40 PM

I Don't Belong To Any Organized Party: I'm A Democrat


Many of you remember the old Will Rogers quote that is the title of this piece. And that quote has never been as true as it is today. The only sincere statement that George Bush has made to the press recently is his belief that the Democrats will not win either the House or the Senate. He has a good reason to believe this and the Democrat elites are completly missing it. Even worse, they are already crowning themselves because of recent polls.

As many of you know, we started a new unconservative radio network called Nova M Radio, Inc http://www.novamradio.com/. One of our shows offered to affiliates is called "Pulse of the Nation" with John Zogby. My discussions with John and another intelligence source who has a contact inside the White House has emailed me his analysis of what is going on behind the scenes. And John Zogby has confirmed that the polling leads are in his terms, "soft." This is the analysis given to me by my source:

"I think we Dems are heading for a catastrophically low turnout. The essential part of Rove's strategy going back decades is polarization and demonization: Dems and independents get disgusted and boycott the polls, the far right, however, gets energized.

Every election, turnout gets lower and lower which suits Rove just fine. Right now, half of all Americans don't register, and half of the registered don't vote. Polarization works. By keeping turnout under 25% of all eligibles, all Rove has to do is mobilize 13% nationally to win. They have used direct mail to update and propagandize their base, a cheap and easy way of updating the database.

Yes, I have been suspiscious of Diebold machines for years, but honestly think the declning turnout is the key to GOP control. Zogby is a pro, he knows that low turnouts means general polling becomes wildly inaccurate. GOP polling of targeted turnout is hugely expensive but superbly accurate. It is time for the Dems to get back to fundamentals. If my White House source is correct, we have squandered our best opportunity to take back Congress."

And what do the Democrat elites do about this? They simply ignore their base and reach out with expensive ads to change the minds of the undecided. That is not a strategy for victory. In addition, the White House just had a meeting with all the major conservative talk show hosts to strategize with their radio allies for the mobilization of their base. We have talked to the DNC and DLC about strategizing with AAR and spending money to mobilize the listeners of liberal talk radio. The DNC, DLC, and the rich and famous Dems have completely ignored and abandoned liberal talk radio advertising on shows that could mobilize their base.

I have been speaking to the elites about this for years and either because of ego or self interest they do not get it. But, Rove and the Republican elites have known this for years. It is urgent that we get the base mobilized while there is still time.