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Sheldon Filger

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U.S. Unemployment Rate Continues to Fall as Discouraged Workers 'Disappear'

Posted: 05/04/2012 8:58 pm

The latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that the United States supposedly "created" 115,00 jobs in April. Not even President Obama's supporters are cheering loudly over this figure, as it indicates a slowing down of job creation -- and that is if the number is accurate. As many know, BLS jobs numbers are usually a mathematical abstraction based on assumptions and inferences, not hard numbers. In any event, if there were 115,000 jobs created in April, that is below the approximately 200,000 new jobs that must be created in the U.S each month in order to keep up with population growth. In other words, 115,000 new jobs in April would mean that the American unemployment rate would increase.

But in April, again according to the BLS, the U.S. unemployment rate did not increase; in fact it "declined" to 8.1 percent. If job creation is lagging behind the expected entry of new workers into the U.S. labor market, how did the magicians at the Bureau of Labor Statistics construct a reduction in unemployment? Very simple. There are so many discouraged unemployed workers in the United States, they are simply giving up and "leaving" the labor force. In many cases, actually, the BLS is exercising initiative and assuming that a certain proportion of the unemployed simply drop out of the workforce each month.

The real meaning of the April jobs number is that the participation of age-eligible Americans in the labor force -- both working and unemployed -- is at a 30 year low. How is that synonymous with an economic recovery?

In point of fact, a staggeringly high rate of unemployment, made artificially lower by not counting those long-term unemployed workers as being part of the active labor force, is by no means characteristic of a post-recessionary economic recovery. What has recovered since the onset of the global financial and economic crisis in 2008 are equity prices, which have regained almost all of their losses. However, that recovery is not due to increased consumer demand stemming from the reentry into the workforce of formerly unemployed workers. Rather, stock prices regained most of their losses and have enjoyed a recovery due almost entirely to the loose monetary policies of the Federal Reserve under the tutelage of its chairman, Ben Bernanke.

In contrast with the policies of President Franklin Roosevelt during America's Great Depression of the 1930s, which focused on facilitating job creation, the policymakers in the U.S. have focused their efforts on reinflating equity prices through quantitative easing (money printing) and offering banks (including investment banks) historically low interest rates, in effect free money. Perhaps sooner than we can imagine, history will render its verdict on this policy of neglecting a recovery in the labor market in favor of reinflating the stock market.

 
 
 

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The latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that the United States supposedly "created" 115,00 jobs in April. Not even President Obama's supporters are cheering loudly over this fi...
The latest numbers from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that the United States supposedly "created" 115,00 jobs in April. Not even President Obama's supporters are cheering loudly over this fi...
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
billw8017
History looks like this
05:16 PM on 05/31/2012
"...history will render its verdict on this policy of neglecting a recovery in the labor market in favor of reinflating the stock market."

Perhaps, history will say Ben Bernanke got it exactly wrong? Half the members of the Fed Board are from the banks and the appointed members tend, as well, to be bankers. It is predictable that the Fed is more concerned about the financial sector than about employment. Can bank prosperity based in quant easing really benefit a country in the absence of manufacturing and commerce?
11:25 PM on 05/07/2012
An Alternative to Capitalism (if the people knew about it, they would demand it)

Several decades ago, Margaret Thatcher claimed: "There is no alternative".
She was referring to capitalism. Today, this negative attitude still persists.

I would like to offer an alternative to capitalism for the American people to consider.
Please click on the following link. It will take you to an essay titled: "Home of the Brave?"
which was published by the Athenaeum Library of Philosophy:

http://evans-experientialism.freewebspace.com/steinsvold.htm

John Steinsvold

“Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result."
~ Albert Einstein
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Kai-HK
Don't Share My Wealth! Share My Work Ethic!
11:23 PM on 05/06/2012
Penalize people for creating jobs and incentivize people to not work and you will get more unemployment. This is where we stand today.
10:59 AM on 05/06/2012
a couple of solution to reducing unemployment is to deport some of the millions of illegals. The to restrcit immgraition to as needed. Of course the future is that many other countries will be facing a reduced labor force. This is happening in Japan and will soon happen in south Korea which has just started to bring in immgrants.
If it wasn't for the econmic conditions, we would have full employment and beyond. Millions of boomers are retiring and just plane dying.
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rtx47
01:27 PM on 05/06/2012
You are giving similar arguments that have been used against new immigrants since this country began. Yet all economists and books on 17th, 18th, 19th, 20th century America will tell you that it is the immigrants that built this country by doing low skilled and dangerous labor at a very low cost.

Recent Immigrants (legal and illegals) are being blamed for our intellectual failures, waste, fraud and abuse of the current system and out inability to think out of the box.
03:06 PM on 05/06/2012
Bullt this country at low cost. meaning low wages. All i am saying is that immgrants do lower ages whether they are H1-b, or feild labor. With our currnet state of employment we don't need as many foreigners. We have let in 40 milliion in the last 30 years and wages in cerian sectors have been stagnemt.
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Roosevelt Democrat
02:17 AM on 05/06/2012
Some interesting points to consider.

There was an article in Discover Magazine that discussed air pollution from China. Over 2/3's of our mercury pollution now comes from China. The article stressed, "There's no place away"!

Unrestricted Free Trade is killing the planet!

Germany has a population less than 1/3 of ours but has nearly as many people working in manufacturing as we do!

The German equivalent to our EPA employs about 1,500 people even though their manufacturing base is almost as big as our. There are over 17,000 people working for the EPA. Some might argue about the size difference but it's been my experience that people and manufacturing makes pollution. You take the argument to it's logical conclusion the EPA should have 3,100 employees patrolling the mountains and tundra of Alaska.

I bring these points up to point out we don't have an economic manufacturing policy here in the U.S.

We need environmental tariffs to reduce world wide pollution.

We need a law that 10% of everything sold here in the U.S. must be made here. This maintains a certain brain trust here. When you make a product it has a ripple effect from the manufacturing of the machines to make the product to the manufacturing of chemicals used to make that same product.

We need to make 10% of all products sold here for no other reason than for national security reasons.

Think about it.
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A level Head
Consumption not investment requires subsidy
01:19 PM on 05/06/2012
I agree with the basic premise ,,,, But think set percentages will work against quality (No I do not have a direct substitute solution).

We probably need to look at why manufacturing is running away. As I see it the two main causes are regulation and labor cost.

We need to use tariffs to offset our regulatory disadvantage. A cost factor needs to be developed that recognizes the costs associated with abatement and safety here and in competing Nations. A tariff would then be applied to level those costs. This removes the advantage another Nation may take from being more primitive than we consider proper. When doing this we need to examine our regulations to be certain they are effective within a reasonable cost. There is no real sense in developing a regulation that specifies XYX when doing so removes XYZ from the market because of cost. It is a failure to conduct this type of common sense that has lead to production flight. Sensible regulation (and that devil is in the details) however is a necessary and beneficial thing.

Continued
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Roosevelt Democrat
11:43 PM on 05/06/2012
I was going to set the 10% only for large Big Box Stores.

I pick the Large Big Box Stores because they had a large hand in pushing us to unrestricted free trade.

Thought it would be interesting to see them compete with Mom & Pop stores on Main Street with no such restrictions.

See, I believe America's Strength is Main Street not Wall Street.

I believe our laws and policies should be based on the question, does this support or hurt MAin Street?

If it hurts Main Street but benefits Wall Street then it should be blocked!
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A level Head
Consumption not investment requires subsidy
01:20 PM on 05/06/2012
Part 2

Labor is another animal. We are simply not going to compete with Asian Labor UNTIL they grow a sizable middle class. Even then it may be difficult if they have a definition of middle class that is more frugal than ours. In actuality what we call middle class America today would have been viewed as upper economic class just a generation ago.

A third area that needs to be addressed is our Military spending. We simply can no longer afford to act as the Worlds enforcer. We need a strong defense to deter. We must however question the value of far flung bases, seemingly endless interventions, and a huge foreign based ground force. It is perhaps time to pull back on all fronts and develop a cohesive policy of ruthless retaliation. If attacked simply destroy those responsible (and if necessary their sponsors). with air and sea incursion. After turning a few offenders and their support structures to rubble mjy guess is we will have gone a long ways toward explaining our point.
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billw8017
History looks like this
05:11 PM on 05/05/2012
Figures indicate that private hiring approaches pre recession levels. The numbers are down because of austerity programs that lay off teachers and other public employees.

Who could ever have guessed that cutting jobs might increase unemployment! I sure the Republican governors will admit their dismay after they're done celebrating.
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rtx47
05:58 PM on 05/06/2012
"Teachers and other public employees" are laid-off becasue we the tax-payers revolted against rising property taxes.
Some (including union members) say it is the federal govt that should pick up the difference between taxes and their pay demands.
Painless (but deceptive) way to pass the buck to the next generation, which we have been doing for several decades.
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billw8017
History looks like this
02:42 AM on 05/07/2012
"Painless (but deceptive) way to pass the buck to the next generation..."

The deficit presumably is debts passed to the next generation. Except 1) the next generation has a power to forswear debts gathered without their permission. Of course, it would require a Constitutional amendment. In reality, they will probably do it the same way we do: inflate the money and reduce the actual debt if not the nominal debt. We also use unemployment to depress prices.

But even more, we are paying for deficit budgets right now, today. During this recession more money is useful to cover the lack due to a slower turnover of money in the economy and due to tighter loans, private debt being the actual source of the bulk of our money. The way that a national debt in sovereign money differs from a personal or household economy is that the money is a tool to balance consumption and production and works in the economy right now. What the money represents is the important thing and we cannot take tomorrow's bread from tomorrow's mouths and eat it now. So, we have to pay for everything right now, today in one way or another.

Denying children good educations, care and opportunity really does pass a buck from our mismanagement upon the next generation. If one cares for the future of our country, that may be the worst thing we could possibly do. Excuses don't cut it.
10:40 AM on 05/05/2012
These so-called “free trade agreements” have to go. It was obvious when they were passing these agreements as to what was going to happen and sure enough it did. Our leaders had to have known this as well when they were passing these bills. It’s just common sense. Our government, who is supposed to represent the American people, has to help even the playing field by adding tariffs that are proportionate to the inequities in wages and regulations in the country where the goods were produced and or where we’re importing them from. We could then use the money raised by these tariffs to help companies build state of the art manufacturing plants here in the USA, which would create more jobs here at home for US citizens, which would then in turn increase our income tax revenue.

We need whoever wins the next election to Start Protecting American Jobs and do whatever it takes to bring back the jobs they let go. They’ve got to give us somebody who will stand up for the American people.
10:42 AM on 05/05/2012
We need to bring manufacturing back to the United States of America and both parties are ignoring tariffs as a way to level the playing field, raise money and bring jobs back home. Let’s guess why. Oh that’s right, tariff is a dirty word. Hum, maybe it’s that our so called leaders (political leaders) are beholden to the same people who are exporting our jobs.

I guess we should keep letting Corp Boards, Wall Street and CEOs promote sending US jobs to countries where they work for slave wages, no benefits, no OSHA safety standards or no real environment regulations. How’s that been working for us?

The so called “Global Market Place” is not a level playing field. Companies may have made higher profits by “out sourcing”, but they’ve been putting middle class Americans who are a good part of the world’s customer base out of work. I’m not a lefty or member of any union. I run a business that employs over 20 people and produces products that are purchased by customers that do manufacturing and packaging. I’m just an average Joe, but I’ve been saying this for more than 10 years now. If I can see it, so can our so called leaders (political leaders) who are beholden to the same people who are exporting our jobs.
10:43 AM on 05/05/2012
We need to add tariffs that are proportionate to the inequities in wages and regulations in the country where the goods were produced and or where we’re importing them from. We could then use the money raised by these tariffs to help companies build state of the art manufacturing plants here in the USA, which would create more jobs here at home for US citizens, which would then in turn increase our income tax revenue.

Bringing manufacturing back to the US not only gives jobs to the US citizens who would be working in those manufacturing facilities, but to the people that would be working in the businesses that would spring up all around them. This should also include the safe harvesting, production and distribution of our own natural energy here in the USA, rather than paying for fuel from countries where they hate us. Let’s keep that money and those jobs here in the US.

We may have to pay a bit more for products made here in the USA by US citizens, but at least we’ll still have jobs and a future for our children.

The bottom line is that “Our Government” has to protect American industry and the jobs that those industries provide. If they do that, the rest will take care of itself.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
billw8017
History looks like this
05:15 PM on 05/05/2012
If tariffs were a good idea, the United States would have protected its manufacturing and industry from the first. Alexander Hamilton would have supported tariffs for the Washington administration. And if they worked, the United States would have become an industrial powerhouse.

Perhaps, there is some sort of lesson there...
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03:04 PM on 05/05/2012
"It shouldn't be all about Democrats or Republicans! It should be about doing the right thing for our country and the majority of it's citizens."

Agreed. I also agree with the sentiment for bringing jobs back but I do not think that the methodology that you suggest will work anymore. We are a long way down the tunnel by now. Just like going to war in Iraq and then not being able to get out after the promised eight months or so, we have outsourced and started R&D training in other countries for quite some time now.

A better trained labor force elsewhere will chip away into any industrial sector we think we can simply "manage" through tariffs etc. Consider Apple. If we now put tariffs etc. and meddle with the supply chain the product will be more expensive -- not just a bit more. It will harm the whole fabric. Eventually Samsung will sell more of their product at their main competitor begins to struggle. And we know the consequences.

One of the crying need of the hour is not just a capable guy or gal for President but an entire legislative body who is capable of following and implementing the will of the voter. We need leaders who can clearly tackle the free bailouts, the heavy lobbying on all the major decisions, etc. There seem to be insurmountable challenges to this right now but where there is a will there will be a way.
06:10 PM on 05/05/2012
The people with all of the excuses as to why we can’t or aren’t willing to manufacture products here in the US are the same people who have provided us with the thinking that’s gotten us into this mess in the first place.

It's obvious that the foreign interests are influencing our media as well, just watch the ABC Nightline special on Apple’s iPhone and iPad products being made in China that ends with the biased comment “That you can be the nation that lines up to make these products or the nation the lines up to buy them, but it’s impossible to be both”. What bull crap propaganda! ABC has direct ties to Apple and Foxconn. http://economyincrisis.org/content/unethical-predatory-practices

Bringing manufacturing back to the United States of America not only gives jobs to the US citizens who would be working in those manufacturing facilities, but to the people that would be working in the businesses that would spring up all around them. The “Global Market Place” is not a level playing field! The whole idea of the tariffs is so we can pay our factory workers a decent wage and not be blown out by these other countries where they don’t play by the same rules.
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Roosevelt Democrat
01:51 AM on 05/06/2012
I have a solution.

It's in our national interest for 10% of everything sold here in the U.S. to be made here! If for no other reason than National Security. We should produce 10% of all Raw materials like rare earths here also for national security reasons.

When you are forced to produce 10% of a product you maintain a brain trust. Any given product sold has a ripple effect in manufacturing. To make a product you have to make the machines to make the product. Most products require chemicals in the processing of that same product. All of these activities increase that brain trust. This brain trust cross pollinates into different industries.

You maintain an active manufacturing economy!

Germany a nation of less than1/3 our population now has almost as many people in manufacturing as we do! Think about that!

A non-tariff means for the U.S. to get back into the game!
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Josephine Welsh
Liberal 4 Life
08:18 AM on 05/05/2012
I know I'm in the minority here, but less employment has been a blessing to our family. My husband was laid off in 2010 and had no luck finding employment for about a year. Then a curious thing happened: we adjusted to his new role as a "house husband.". In fact, I'd never go back to both of us working full time. Now we take life easier, don't care as much about material things and don't have to worry about incompatible work or vacation schedules. I call in my dinner order every day, he runs errands, does the lawn, cleans house, grocery shops, etc. We have time to just have fun on weekends. I have to work longer, but it's a better balance for our family.
09:16 AM on 05/05/2012
no I think a lot of people are doing what you're doing. its just not popular to write about it on a ue sympathizer comment page.
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02:40 PM on 05/05/2012
All the best to you. Its easy to think that you are just forced to adjust to the present economy. But actually you are cutting new ground for many -- revising our views on what is important to the family well-being. What comforts and gadgets do we really needed for a happy life. Moreover, in a free market system, you are standing for what your skills are really worth and telling the world that you will wait until it offers appropriate compensation for giving up some of the things that you now enjoy.
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FogBelter
Illegitimis non carborundum
12:16 AM on 05/05/2012
When the market crashes again there will neither be resources nor political will to rush to its aid as in 2008. It won't be pretty.
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Frank David Nall
Nothing astonishes men so much as common sense
10:25 PM on 05/04/2012
well I am not an economic genius and I can tell you it is wrong........dead wrong. All this has done is fuel a rising tide of anger in this country both on the left and the right. Those who are getting gigantic bonuses in government and private sector are going to rue the day.