The global financial and economic crisis arose out of radical deflation in the U.S. housing market, as the real estate asset bubble split asunder. With the collapse in housing prices came the contraction of another asset bubble: equities. The ongoing demand destruction has also deflated commodity prices from their recent peaks, giving rise to a collective view among economic policymakers that deflation represents the single greatest risk to the global economy.
In itself, deflation is a dangerous economic phenomenon. Historians of the Great Depression often refer to deflation in the 1930s as a contributing factor to the prolongation of that epochal downturn in the world's economy. Looking closely at the dynamics of deflation, it is not difficult to see why this is a dangerous economic state to be in. When prices of major durable goods, especially homes, continue to decline, this inserts a strong dose of uncertainty into the human decision-making process. Not many consumers are likely to take out a mortgage on a home that they believe will actually decline in value right after the legal papers are signed. Or so the classical economic theory goes.
However, though not downgrading the danger of deflation, I believe policymakers are ignoring other factors regarding this economic and financial condition. Furthermore, the U.S. government and Federal Reserve in particular, are taking steps to "cure" deflation that will inevitably lead to hyperinflation, which in the long-term may prove far more destructive to the long-term health of the U.S. economy.
History demonstrates that deflation is not a permanent condition. Market forces, unencumbered by fiscal and monetary intervention, eventually restore pricing equilibrium. At a certain point prices of major durables such as homes are low enough to encourage new categories of consumers to enter the marketplace. As demand is restored, prices stabilize and then resume their upward ascent. It is all a question of time. However, key decision-makers in the United States are not paragons of patience. They want deflation cured immediately, which explains why the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve are hell-bent on policies that are guaranteed to be inflationary. The question is how bad will inflation ultimately be.
Massive quantitative easing by the Fed is pouring trillions of U.S. dollars into the money supply, essentially conjured out of thin air. This is being done without transparency, the rationale being that frozen credit markets require a vast expansion of the money supply in an attempt to get the arteries of commerce flowing again. Similarly, the U.S. government is spending vast amounts of money it does not have, with the Treasury Department selling unprecedented levels of government debt in a frantic effort to fund the wildly expanding U.S. deficit. These two forces, quantitative easing and multi-trillion dollar deficits, are the core ingredients of an explosive fiscal cocktail that I believe will ultimately lead to hyperinflation.
What exactly is hyperinflation? Economists disagree on a common definition, so I will offer one myself. Double-digit inflation extending over a period of at least two years would arguably be a hyperinflationary period. It can get much worse, witness Weimar Germany in the early 1920's and Zimbabwe at present. The most recent experience the United States had with this unstable economic condition was in 1981, when the annual CPI rate exceeded 13%. The cure was draconian; Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker engineered a severe economic recession that created the highest level of U.S. unemployment since the Great Depression -- until now. The federal funds rate, currently near zero, rose to above 20% under Volcker's harsh discipline. Eventually high inflation was purged out of the system and economic growth was restored, however the monetary regimen was punitive for several years.
The current monetary and fiscal policies being enacted by the key economic decision-makers in the United States are laying the groundwork for a far more dangerous inflationary environment than anything encountered by Paul Volcker. The explosive growth in the money supply and government debt is simply unsustainable without severe inflation. It must be kept in mind that the Federal government is not the only public authority engaged in massive deficit spending. Throughout America, state, county and municipal governments are faced with imploding tax revenues and lack the ability or political flexibility to cut services to a level commensurate with revenue flows. Both the Fed and the public sector are engaging in a reckless gamble; borrow like crazy in the hope that this overdose of economic stimulation will restore growth to the economy and normal tax revenues, leading to a decreased and sustainable level of public sector indebtedness.
If one believes that the policymakers running the Federal Reserve, Treasury and Federal government, the same architects of the Global Economic Crisis, are smart enough to now get everything right, perhaps we may escape the worst consequences of their turbo-charged fiscal and monetary policies. However, there are growing indications that global investors and the broader market are beginning to reach a far more sobering assessment.
In an interview with Bloomberg News, Bill Gross, co-chief investment officer of PIMCO (Pacific Investment Management Company) suggested that the coveted AAA credit rating U.S. government debt now benefits from will eventually be downgraded. "The markets are beginning to anticipate the possibility of a downgrade," Gross said.
China, the major purchaser of Treasuries and holder of $1 trillion of U.S. government debt, is already on record as expressing concern for the integrity of its American investments, and has begun actively exploring alternatives to the U.S. dollar as the primary global reserve currency. These moves by China are not based on fears of expropriation of its U.S. assets, but focuses on the specter of hyperinflation destroying much of the value of assets denominated in U.S. dollars. No doubt China's economic experts are well aware of the growing number of economists who are convinced that the U.S. will be unable to service its rapidly expanding debt burden without significant inflation. Inflation in monetary terms means the erosion of the intrinsic value of the American dollar.
What is most frightening about the policy moves being enacted by the Fed and Treasury is that their actions may not be a reckless gamble after all. They may have come to the conclusion that only hyperinflation will enable the United Sates to avoid national insolvency. In effect, they may be pursuing the exact opposite course undertaken by Paul Volcker in the early 1980's. If that is their prescription for the dire economic crisis confronting the U.S., then one must conclude that Ben Bernanke, Timothy Geithner and Larry Summers have learned nothing from history. Once the spigot of hyperinflation is tuned on, it becomes a cascading torrent that is almost impossible to switch off, and which in its wake inflicts inconceivable levels of economic, political and social devastation. Before it is too late, President Obama should put the brakes on his economic team's dangerous gamble with the haunting specter of hyperinflation. If he fails to act in time, a hellish prospect may be his economic and political legacy.
has been held over the heads of all who seek to print
money as a solution to their economic problems. But is our situation
actually comparable to early 1920’s Germany? Germany owed
other countries pounds and francs, not marks. When Germany
ran out of gold, the value of the mark was no longer backed by the
value of gold. This led to a crash in the value of the mark relative
to the value of other currencies. As Germany started printing more
money for repayment, currency speculators drove the mark lowerand lower. This forced Germany to print more and more marks in
order to convert the mark into either pounds or francs.
The U.S. does not owe people gold, pounds, euros,
yen, rubles, pesos, yuan, or any other currency. We owe people dollars.
We will not have to print a never-ending amount
of dollars to meet our obligations to others. Germany had a cycle of high inflation
during and after World War I
that built inflationary expectations into the
economy prior to the hyper-inflation of the early 1920’s. Wealthy
Germans were already seeking ways to convert their money into
hard assets such as real estate or works of art. We have deflation in
the U.S. Our wealthy citizens are looking to hide their cash under
the mattress in Treasury bonds. Wealthy Americans are not
looking to put their money into more real estate."
http://escapethenewgreatdepression.com
Hoover and the Japanese were afraid of inflation and cut back spending and taxes, making the depressions.
FDR spent us out of the depression.,
.gov then floods the economy with printed currency to keep the ball rolling to make up for the money it can no longer borrow. it does this by loaning money to itself(buying its own debt; which is being done now) or dropping cash from helicopters. eventually the ball crushes everyone and a new world order is established with the chinese in control of the ball.
The Country maybe the World is waiting to buy or invest until we either reach bottem or we can trust the Market.
We are like a group of people who have just lost more that we can afford at a Las Vegas Casino.
We have just discovered ,beyond a doubt, the wheels are really rigged. All the cards are really Marked for the House, The slots are rigged to where only " gold card members" can win and that ain't us.
We look at each other and all start walking out the door. Casino manager is pleading and begging and trying to convince us he will fix it. It'l be better ! It'l be better. stay and play!.... ... ..
Hey buddy, You gotta be kidding!
Rarely are writers so transparent in their efforts to set up straw horse arguments. I mean, really, economists disagree so therefore Mr. Sheldon can make up his own definition, which has nothing in common with any of the definitions economists disagree over? I can almost smell the hay.
He then put a cardboard jockey onto the straw horse, that the US experienced hyperinflation in living memory (the US has never experienced hyperinflation).
Taken together with his sweet nothings on deflation ("History demonstrates that deflation is not a permanent condition. Market forces, unencumbered by fiscal and monetary intervention, eventually restore pricing equilibrium.", a more untrue claim is hard to imagine), and Occam's razor does the rest.
Once we are in a position to worry about inflation again, we should all just sigh a big huge sigh of relief.
Making up definitions for hyperinflation to scare people, what will they try to scare us with next!
My Oma would smack you upside the head, she played with bricks of currency as kid.
We shouldn't overhype inflation, but we should not underestimate the risk and the consequences if it does occur.
Underestimate the risk and the consequences of inflation? Wasn't just dropped off the turnip truck, and sadly, I'm old enough that I lived through those "hyperinflation" inflation days when Reagan was president, if you were to believe some people. (Normally, people saying Reagan presided over hyperinflation would cause many people to hyperventilate, it is such an untrue slander, and I am no admirer of Reagan).
The risks and consequences of deflation are much more dire.
During inflation, the market functions, as we have all experienced every day of our lives.
During deflation the market seizes up, creating an artificial shortage of everything because there is a shortage of money, the economy has a heart attack.
However, there are risks and rewards for inflation and deflation that are different for persons with bricks of currency to play with. During inflation, they have to risk their money in the market or it will lose value. During deflation, as the masses starve while crops go unharvested, they get to play with their bricks of money, and it increases in value.
in place prevent any tampering or manipulation in the Federal Reserve. We trust
Mr. Bernanke to take care of business. When hyperinfaltion become a reality maybe
someone will believe that there is some "funny business" going on.
The economy has lost trillions of dollars of wealth. This is a giant hole that is causing deflation in many areas. The increase in the money supply does not offset the giant loss in the economy. The only items that you will see go up in price are those like oil and food, that are controlled by cartels or oligopolies and can hold their prices artificially high for awhile, until reality hits. As long as there is no rebound in demand, there will be little inflation.
Furthermore, all one has to do to see inflation in a present sense is look at the prices of houses, oil, and food in the past ten years and notice how the increase in money supply has caused an increase in prices.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZM?cid=30
And finally, comparing today to the Great Depression, you're right, prices have gone down temporarily, but all the new money that has been created has sopped up any deflationary pressure.
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?chart_type=line&s[1][id]=CPIAUCNS&s[1][transformation]=pc1
Inflation is only caused by the ability to raise prices. If prices remain flat or are deflating, start the printing presses. In fact, you could print all the money to pay back the Chinese without inflation in the current environment. With housing prices falling its deflating the economy.
Remember Nixons' frozen dollar and price and wage controls? He knew rising prices caused inflation especially after he dismantled Bretton Woods and the dollar deflated to reflect actual value as a floating currency.
You have three things that could cause inflation with current economic thinking (thinking I don't buy). 1. Dollar devaluation. Remember Bretton Woods. 2. All the war money floating around from Irag and Afganistan. Remember Vietnam? 3. Companies raising prices. This is more reflected in oil and food (remember 1973).
Wages are depressed, oil is low, the iraq war will be wound down, housing prices are falling, I smell market manipulation.
Oil and food are largely controlled by cartels and monopolies. OPEC and the big oil companies decide the increase or decrease of prices of oil to the American consumer. There is only a market to the extent the monopolies want one. Is it any coincidence that U.S. gas prices always go down every two years at the time of a major election?
The monetarists are, however, not proven wrong by this. You left out one important factor: the velocity of money changing hands. Inflation is determined by money supply times velocity. At this time, the little man is stuffing his money into the mattress (or paying off his debts) and the banks are deleveraging. In effect, that means money changes hands more slowly than before, driving velocity down. That is one of the main reasons we do not have inflation now. Let this velocity increase and things will change. Conspicuous inflation is a strong reason to get the money out of the mattress again. For example, when you realize you loose 10% of your money value per year, you will try to get rid of it (exchange it for something more stable in value). Companies will insist on instantaneous payment, taking inflation into account when timing production and invoicing. Velocity also depends on trust into tomorrows value of money. At this moment, this trust is intact. The problem is, a change in money value (15%) caused by/triggering a loss of trust can practically happen overnight (Argentina), with people's access to accounts barred for several days.
A number of your premises are faulty.
* The stock market was way down long before the collapse in housing prices. The DJIA and the S&P500 were already down almost 20% by July of 2007 from where they were in 2000 in inflation-adjusted dollars. Therefore, your claim that "the collapse in housing prices" caused the "contraction of another asset bubble: equities" is chronologically impossible.
* The $2.5 trillion+ that the Fed has "printed" (they actually create it electronically with a keystroke) was given to the banks to shore-up their reserves as a substitute for their portfolios of "toxic assets", but ALL of the money has actually remained on account at the Fed in the name of the respective institutions.
So, just as if the Fed printed new money, gave it to me and I took it home and put it under my mattress, it would not be inflationary, the trillions that the Fed has printed is not out in the national economy and therefore cannot be inflationary.
The bond market is trying to discount a possible decrease in dollar purchasing power by requiring a higher interest rate premium. The Fed is trying to short circuit the process by monetizing the debt by outright purchase of US Treasury paper but is failing to keep bond prices from falling and yields from rising. This makes a pretty strong case for a rise in future price levels because the market is much better at discounting the future than the Fed.
There is no such thing as a free lunch. The Fed is simply determining who will pay for that lunch. The choice rests on political expediency and not on sound economic rationales.
Hopefully, the monetary policies of the Fed will be questioned using something other than the faulty logic that rising price levels are due to inflation - and inflation is defined as rising price levels. This tautological rationale is what usually gives the Fed plausible deniability when answering to the effects of its policies, implying that inflation, like some other unpleasant things, "happens."
For the Fed, the new motto should be: "The agency risk stops here."
econocasts.blogspot.com
Monetary inflation is a ratio between the size of the money supply and the size of the economy. Because it is a ratio, you cannot say if the money supply increases, there is inflation, and vice versa, because that it only one side of the ratio. On the other is the size of the economy.
If the money supply expands faster than the economy, you get inflation. If the money supply expands more slowly than the economy, you get deflation. The economy can be growing or shrinking, and the money supply can be growing or shrinking, and inflation is a ratio between the two.
Indeed, the money supply and the economy can both be growing, and if the money supply grows more slowly than the economy, you get deflation.
Price inflation, which is used as a real time indicator for inflation (real time measurements of the size of the economy don't exist), is only an indicator for inflation; other things besides monetary inflation can cause price inflation, indeed, it is possible to experience price inflation in a deflationary environment (and vice versa).
The tautology you reference is only for price inflation (prices rise, causing price inflation) and is less a tautology than a definition.
The Fed is trying to supply enough money so that the money supply does not start to shrink in relation to the economy, which would be deflation.
No, it is not.
The "Fed's plan" is that as the economy begins to recover, and as the banks would normally want to draw from those accounts at the Fed to loan out into the economy (which would be inflationary), the Fed intends to keep increasing the interest rate paid on those accounts as the economy ascends so that it makes more financial sense for the banks to keep those funds on deposit at the Fed instead of withdrawing them. Eventually, the Fed will slowly shrink down the size of the accounts until they are no longer required.
It's a three-fer. It keeps the banks reserves in proportion so they are not technically insolvent, it creates liquidity, and it is not inflationary.
FDR spent the USA out of the depression.
in which there was vast wealth for some and everyone else was beholden
to those that controlled the wealth. After all, someone had to do the menial
tasks. He also thought change could be brought about by natural, or man-made
disaster, thus the idea of "Disaster Capitalism". Maybe we do need a new order!
Moreover, recent research suggests that climate change did have a major role in the appearance and the disappearance of more than just a few civilizations... so maybe the change by catastrophe hypothesis should be taken a little more seriously... especially in the light of global warming.
Now, one does not have to like Mr. Friedman... but denial of reality is certainly not an argument against some of his more mainstream ideas.
Nobody voted for Milton Friedman.
Can you show me any Country where Uncle Miltie and the Chicago Boys Economics were used where the Middle Class of the nation were as well of as the USA between 1940 and 1970s when RR started playing Friedman FreeMarket.
Can you show me a Milton Friedman Economic Country that is anything more than a Wealthy Ruling Oligarchy, and a workforce of frightened oppresed Serfs ?
Not counting of course the Latin American Countries who have fought Bloody Revolutions to get rid of Uncle Milton and the MF , World Bank, and their Brutal Dictator.
Free Market don't mean Free People.
I would rather be a poor hungry free man than a well fed Slave.
That is more than the whole rest of the world combined. Reduce that and allocate some to the
healthcare that is needed. Otherwise we don't need to defend this country for the few rich only!
Well maybe not in one sense.
The loss of jobs and the rest is making it very hard to find a "floor".
In fact the more light we shine down the hole the deeper we see it getting.
Untill all prices for everything deflate to follow the value of the American home our economy is false and at risk for it's being only a perceptual economy.
Money is no longer tied to anything of real value, like land or gold or work.
Instead it linked to perception alone.
The single thing that Americans have had of real value is their home.
This has become the anchor of what money means.
Now that anchor is thrown overboard and falling thru darkening waters.
The pull on other prices is being resisted but must eventually fall to find a new stable level deeply deflated to put them on a par with hom"e values that continue to fall.
Home prices can not bottom so far out of whack with all other prices because the perception of what it would mean is unworkable.
The only Anchor there is is to be somehow completely dissasociated from the cost of a loaf of bread?
I am sorry to say the lack of honesty as to what value is, is predictivly acting to create a reality that is untenable for even the Banksters.
Clean your guns and buy a Big Dog.
If there is inflation, thank a conservative.