The 2015 International CES is just around the corner. If you walk the show floors (there will be several this year) one of the first things you will notice about the devices on display is how much data they will generate. What will we do with the data? How will we mine it? What will we change with the knowledge? Has anyone ever had a big data problem that was this... "big"?
As it turns out, full-time haberdasher and part-time proto-demographer John Graunt described London circa 1662 by meticulously analyzing every single death record... by hand! In his study, Natural and Political Observations Made upon the Bills of Mortality, Graunt concludes: death by plague was de minimis; however, if you were under the age of 16, you had about a 1 in 3 chance of surviving to adulthood. (London in the 1640s was a tough town.)
What would motivate such an endeavor? Fear of the plague. (But I digress.) Graunt's work was academically rigorous, scientific for its day and an impressive demonstration of data munging and data mining. From it, we learned we could combine demography and mathematics to yield actionable results. Importantly, Graunt was not using the Bills of Mortality as a proxy for his audience... he was collecting and mining data that "was" his audience.
The similarities between Graunt's work and modern demographics are striking. We still deduce the composition of audience cohorts and we still make natural and political observations. Thankfully, we don't need to rely on Bills of Mortality to make them. What we do rely on is a seemingly overwhelming amount of data, gathered from a consortia of the devices we use everyday.
What can we learn from the data we already have? Can traditional demography be adapted to describe the world as we observe it? Are there tools that could help us better understand consumer behavior? What does it mean to sell an actual audience as opposed to selling a proxy for it?
My friends at Time Warner Cable (TWC) took me through an in-depth analysis of set top box data that allowed them to create a new way to segment customers. They call them "TV Tribes." At first glance, I thought this was simply marketing jargon. But the combination of data, demographics and mathematics got my undivided attention.
According to TWC, "TV Tribes are informed by both content and context: where they live, what they watch and how they consume media. This combination of factors improves upon analysis based solely on demographics, and the subsequent data transcends Nielsen ratings by finding out if particular channels are watched in specific areas of the country at specific time periods."
The data has helped TWC identify dozens of distinct TV Tribes, such as:
- News: Whether it's local or national, news channels are the main story within this Tribe. These consumers' favorite channels are MSNBC, CNN and Fox News.
- Kids & Family: Families with young children tend to have a strong bias toward kids' programming, and channels like Cartoon Network and Disney XD.
- Tailgaters: Sports fans who live and breath all season long with their favorite teams. Channels like ESPN and the NBC Sports Network are "king" to this Tribe.
- True Stories: This Tribe prefers channels like A&E and WE TV, which air documentaries and real history shows about the past, present and future.
- Fast & Furious: This Tribe is obsessed with action programming, movies and fast-paced comedies on networks like Syfy, AMC and SPIKE TV.
Within each of these tribes, though, the data can be broken down even further. Marketers can see, for example, that only 3% of the market in Cleveland is made up of the Fast & Furious Tribe, while that number grows to 5.4% in Los Angeles or 7.1% in NYC. The data can also be broken down by income level, giving marketers an even better idea of exactly whom they're selling to.
I'm fascinated by the granularity and targeting capability that "TV Tribes" accomplishes using the "blunt force instrument" we call television. It makes me wonder about the quest to conquer big data (defined here as every bit of information generated by everything). Probabilistic data vs. deterministic data... is there a middle ground? Someplace between, to paraphrase Einstein, "...counting absolutely everything that can be counted and counting only what counts?"
Whether it's putting ad dollars to work, or striving to deliver the most relevant content, we are likely to need a human-understandable narrative, and context to augment our nascent automated pattern matching and machine learning tools. TV Tribes seem like a positive evolutionary step. Graunt would have liked them - seriously - check out some of his writing; he literally describes his version of "Tribes" in the book.
If you've read this far, and you know me, you are undoubtedly wondering when I'm going to start talking up the value of online and on-demand video - how well it can be measured and how easily targetable it is. All true. But. Just this week Nielsen announced that the average American still watched more than 141 hours of live television a month--more than four hours a day. How much online video do they watch? 11 hours a month--around 22 minutes a day. While it is undeniable that live television viewing is trending down and streaming video viewing is trending up, the best ROI will be a result of increasing the efficacy of the bigger number first.
By the way, if you needed to do all five years of Graunt's data wrangling, munging and analysis today, it would take you less time than you spent reading this article. Importantly, this would not make you a better demographer than John Graunt, only a faster one. See you at CES.
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
It's Another Trump-Biden Showdown — And We Need Your Help
The Future Of Democracy Is At Stake
Our 2024 Coverage Needs You
Your Loyalty Means The World To Us
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
The 2024 election is heating up, and women's rights, health care, voting rights, and the very future of democracy are all at stake. Donald Trump will face Joe Biden in the most consequential vote of our time. And HuffPost will be there, covering every twist and turn. America's future hangs in the balance. Would you consider contributing to support our journalism and keep it free for all during this critical season?
HuffPost believes news should be accessible to everyone, regardless of their ability to pay for it. We rely on readers like you to help fund our work. Any contribution you can make — even as little as $2 — goes directly toward supporting the impactful journalism that we will continue to produce this year. Thank you for being part of our story.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
It's official: Donald Trump will face Joe Biden this fall in the presidential election. As we face the most consequential presidential election of our time, HuffPost is committed to bringing you up-to-date, accurate news about the 2024 race. While other outlets have retreated behind paywalls, you can trust our news will stay free.
But we can't do it without your help. Reader funding is one of the key ways we support our newsroom. Would you consider making a donation to help fund our news during this critical time? Your contributions are vital to supporting a free press.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our journalism free and accessible to all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
As Americans head to the polls in 2024, the very future of our country is at stake. At HuffPost, we believe that a free press is critical to creating well-informed voters. That's why our journalism is free for everyone, even though other newsrooms retreat behind expensive paywalls.
Our journalists will continue to cover the twists and turns during this historic presidential election. With your help, we'll bring you hard-hitting investigations, well-researched analysis and timely takes you can't find elsewhere. Reporting in this current political climate is a responsibility we do not take lightly, and we thank you for your support.
Contribute as little as $2 to keep our news free for all.
Can't afford to donate? Support HuffPost by creating a free account and log in while you read.
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. Would you consider becoming a regular HuffPost contributor?
Dear HuffPost Reader
Thank you for your past contribution to HuffPost. We are sincerely grateful for readers like you who help us ensure that we can keep our journalism free for everyone.
The stakes are high this year, and our 2024 coverage could use continued support. If circumstances have changed since you last contributed, we hope you'll consider contributing to HuffPost once more.
Support HuffPostAlready contributed? Log in to hide these messages.