Leadership in Peril: Iranians Won't Wait Out Recount

Do the clerics really think that the Iranian public will sit back and quietly wait out the next 9 days as they deliberate on the recount?

Maybe the clerics should look out their windows to the streets below.

Either the clerics are so out of touch with what is happening in the hearts and minds of most Iranians (including the many who are too apprehensive to risk participating in the demonstrations), or they have situated themselves in such a tight spot that they're trying to buy time to repair the gaping hole in their judgment.

Make no mistake, the massive demonstrations in Iran, both in the run up to election day and since, have been simmering for years and are founded in one thing more than any other: significant, across-the-board dissatisfaction with a system of government that has shown little regard for the people of Iran.

The demonstrators are ostensibly fighting for Mousavi, but what's essentially happening is a continuation of what happened in the days ahead of the election when the Iranian public was allowed the opportunity to pour into the streets in a cathartic mass movement for change. The people were suddenly freed from years of a maddening grip of abeyance and it won't be so easy to force them back into their shells.

The government was wary of the repercussions of allowing mass rallies. They announced on the Wednesday before the Friday election that no more mass rallies would be allowed without a permit. Thursday was supposed to be quiet -- but there were scattered rallies even then.

There was never any doubt that the election results would lead to mass demonstrations -- the losing side was not going to take well to the loss of an election that had reached unprecedented heights of public interest and passion.

Now that protesters have been killed (reports indicate there may be at least 12 deaths nationwide), there is no question that the streets will continue filling up with so many Iranians who have so little to lose in this battle. Unemployment is at troubling heights, so is inflation and the cost of day-to-day living. Everyday, people are harassed for ridiculous things like the clothes they are wearing, the people they are hanging out with, and the materials they are reading and listening to.

No jobs, no prospects, no assets, no liberties -- a lot of Iranians have nothing left to give and everything to gain from protesting. If little else, it no doubt feels incredibly satisfying to be able to publicly display discontent and opposition against a government that for many has made a prison of their lives.

It is no wonder many of them say they are willing to risk all just to protest.

Behind the scenes, the Islamic Republic's recent years of growing factionalism have come to a head. The conservative divide that resulted in the so-called Reformist movement of the late 1990's has further splintered into a third category of "moderate principlists" (as opposed to the "hardline principlists" who are more conservative about their adherence to the principles of the Islamic Republic), led by such powerful men as former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani and former top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani who is reported to have condemned an attack on Tehran University dorms.

Rafsanjani's friction with Ahmadinejad was center stage exactly four years ago when he lost to Ahmadinejad in the second round of the presidential election. This year, he again took a public stance against Ahmadinejad. In the week before election day, Rafsanjani asked to debate Ahmadinejad on television -- even though he wasn't even a presidential candidate. He wrote an open letter to the Supreme Leader urging a fair election and safeguarding of the "sacred Islamic system". In one last attempt, Rafsanjani held a 3-hour meeting with Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on the day before the election.

Considering that Rafsanjani is head of the Assembly of Experts -- the body which is designated with the power to elect and remove the Supreme Leader -- there is no doubt that the top leadership is at risk like never before. Even the 87 year old Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, formerly Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeni's top choice as successor to the Supreme Leadership before they had a falling out in 1989 - has reappeared on the public stage after years of relative obscurity, stating the election results cannot be believed.

No wonder the government is trying to quell the so-far steady outpouring of demonstrators.

It doesn't help that Mousavi is no longer asking demonstrators to stay at home: his official website today announced that "silent" (more banners, less chanters) rallies would be held on Thursday in honor of the killed protesters, which he called shahid's (martyrs), and their families. There is also talk of Friday prayer rallies.

Thanks to these demonstrations, Mousavi is now firmly coming into his own as the leader of the opposition, and unless Supreme Leader Khamenei acts fast, Ahmadinejad may not be the only one who has to step aside.

Comments

[Scent]

If here Bush had had a lead of 2% no one would have demanded a recount even though we KNEW the counting was rigged. But if Ahmadinajad leads by 33% - by the way the same 33% even american polls gave him BEFORE the voting - we blabber about Iran being not democratic. That is ridiculous.

I tell You what IS undemocratic though:

To start a civil war only because the one with the less votes that You like did not win.

But if there is anything we americans are about it is letting people die for our goals, right? Who cares about people in the streets if there is a HUGE market to be won. We did it by making european companies pul out of Iran while we ourselves sent our companies to fill the holes over there - yes, even with the ban in place WE DID BUSINESS with iran and used the ban only to get rid of competition.

And now we want a billionaire in power there so we have someone interested in what is the only thing that makes us to anything - profit.

And again we will watch people die in the streets to get what our richest want. And again we will see terrorism rise because people are not THAT stupid. - Except here where we believe that massacres of 2 million Iraquis has nothing to do with them hating our guts.

[cezare]

Leadership in Peril? Are you kidding me? Stop dreaming, the Islamic Republics long arms reach vast and deep in to this theocracy. Do you notice the tens of thousands being bused to the supreme leaders address? If there was fraud it was perpetrated at the local level and if that is true, it will never be traced back to the supreme leaders office. Never! Iranians are doomed forever under this theocracy and if you want reasons; that's another discussion. Remember 80% if not more of Iranians are brainwashed by Islam, poor and illiterate. How does one fight this great tide? You cannot ;only God can if you believe in God. And again that is another subject. I believe the almighty is directly involved with the elections in Iran to fulfill his end times prophecy.

[speakingtruth2power]

This is the most outside of reality post I've seen today.

[baramba]

RE-CEZARE
I think you smoking too much opiom.go out side and talk to the people,i am writing this from Iran.
I am here and i saw it with my two eyes.you are a moran,nothing els.go get real job.
Perhaps you are getting payed for what you writing.

[lydia]

It reads to me like a class struggle. The-haves and the-have-not. Rafsanjani and his huge financial empires, foreign trade, land holdings and numerous private universities is using his wealth to support Mousavi. Amadinejad has had some serious confrontation with Rafsanjani so perhaps Rafsanjani is using his wealth to overthrow Ahamadinejad, but Amadinejad has the support of the poor as well as the support of the Ayatollah, the Ministry of Intelligence, the IRGC and the Basij militias.

Perhaps it boils down to Rafsanjani's man, Mousavi against the Ayatollah Khamenei's man, Ahmadinejad. There is no denying that he like Hamas and Hezbollah has shaped Iran into a force to be reckoned with.

Maybe the Ayatollah got some of Bush's diebold electronic voting machines or Ahmadinejad won but the Ayatollah used his power to shut down the run off and outsmarted Rajsanjani, anyway it is not our business and taking into account that the Basij militias alone numbers in the tens of millions the whole debacle is set to end badly if the protester continues, and there will be even more blood in the streets.

[Khirad]

Thanks Shirin for a concise summation of the mood. I would love to hear your, or another HuffPo blogger's thoughts on Mousavi's intentions. We know about his past, how he was selected by the Guardian Council, and how he started adjusting his rhetoric to his supporters' concerns and yearnings increasingly in the couple weeks prior to the election. What I am wondering as a novice is, is this just an internal war in which he is loyal to the end to the IRI, or is he (as outlandish as it might sound - and I bite my tongue suggesting this - I find it too absurd to believe myself) an ambitious leader who can see which way the winds might be blowing? For lack of a better historical analogy, is this a possible Yeltsin? Or is this all about replacing Khamenei, Ahmedinejad and stemming the growing influence of the IRG? What's his endgame? Is he malleable to the fluidity of events which may occur? I get sick of people not seeing that this whole uprising has so much more to it than Mousavi, but how could we be sure he wouldn't just return to his old ways if he does somehow get his expressed demands? - or so goes the argument for régime change. I guess anything would be an improvement to the ways things have been backsliding since Khatami's first term though...

[Hanzi Lai]

Sounds like a temporary deadlock is happening. Khamenei cannot back down from his endorsement of the vote unless someone is made a scapegoat. Rafsanjani, Moussavi will likely continue to put on the pressure bcos they know they are on the right side of the argument. Their problem is can they muster enough support from the clerics and the army over to their side. Khamenei and Ahmadinejad likely controls the army and revolutionary guard but their hands are tied for fear of a possibility of civil war. Will Khamenei find a scapegoat to blame and relent to a re-election demanded by Moussavi to save face and his own skin ? Perhaps but not likely. Will Moussavi blink first and make a deal with Khamenei on some kind of post-election compromise ? Possible but only if he's assured that there will be no revenge purging. Or Khamenei and Ahmadinejad risking everything to eliminate the opposition ? Also extremely difficult now with the genie out of the bottle. I can't stand it, what will happen next ?

[andycan]

LET'S WATCH THE IRANIAN ARMY

Mussavi is cunning-he knows the language of Shiite martydom, calling the victims shahids-martyrs:he is stealing this vocabulary from the Khamenei thugs.

It will be interesting to watch how the religious mafia deals with this pure product of their milieu.

The riots may turn into a civil war with the army and police divided and fighting an opposing faction.

By the way, before the US feels any sense of superiority, the American army isa also divided into religious and secular factions.

[Khirad]

I've been thinking a lot about the national army too. I've been waiting for someone to write about military factions: national army/police vs. IRG/Basij. Are these false divisions? Is there any animosity between the two? If I were a professional soldier, I might hold a little disdain for the IRG. Globalsecurity isn't cutting it and when HuffPo refers to special forces, who are they talking about, Quds, Takavar, or another? Does it matter?

I don't know about 'shahid' though. It's common in Islamic and even Sikh regions to style tragic deaths thusly, or name your child (i.e. Shahid Kapoor). That he is using the syntax of Revolutionary memes brilliantly is true though, of course. I in America can never properly understand all the symbolism, but several things have struck me as being not premeditated, but spontaneously purposeful remanifestations of 1979 -- fitting their cultural milieu, as it was put.

[stuporman]

all wars are economic in nature; the iranians are tired of living in poverty while their wealth goes to support hamas & hezbollah just like americans are tired of watching their wealth go to the masters of the universe and republican contractors.

[PiscesPrincess]

Democracy is not possible when mixed with Theocracy.
and if you really want a true democracy a country has to shed itself of the idea of a Republic.
(when there are regions such as states with rights above and beyond)
Now,
the other aspect of democracy that many people fail to take into consideration is education.
Education is an essential ingredient for a successful democracy/republic type of government.
Freedom of religion and separation of church/religion from the affairs of government are the other ingredients.
We have had a strong movement in this country for a couple of decades attempting to break through the last two ingredients. We discovered, to our horror in the last 8 years just how close we came to both theocracy and possible oligarcy. such as you see in IRAN. nuf said.

[nightwind928]

We are,as we are most of the time lately, spectators in the audience.We have no abiliy (nor should we have) to affect the players on the world stage. Iranian politics are the sole property of the people of Iran. If history has taught us nothing else, it has taught us that interfering in Irans politics (as well as the rest of the middle east) has cause us nothing but problems. I hope the people get a fair shake in Iran but if they don't it's THEIR PROBLEM. I don't think that either way it goes will have a major impact on Irans policy tword the west. They will eventually end up with a political system that they can embrace and it will probably not resemble anything we, as Americans, would find acceptable. It dosen't mean that it's wrong, just different,... not for us as a western society. Even Lenin understood that change comes from the barrel of a gun. That's the history of Americas revolution too. The wheels of political change are greased by blood and sometimes those wheels need a bit of lubrication. This is one of those time in Iran. What that blood will bring forth is simply tomorrows news for us in the west and we must patiently sit idly by and read it. We do more only at our own peril.

[Bartolomeu]

President "Obama’s deep concerns on Iranian election"

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sDzkf6VOHf4

For any farseeing citizen committed to promoting international order of justice and peace, and who would like to see the United States' international standing fascinate again, President Obama's prevailing position (link above) is the appropriate way to act with regard to Iran and its people nowadays. Let's remember that Mr. Barack Obama was elected President of the United States of America because of his claims for "Change". In other words, he was elected to save the United States from utilitarianism, which is in sharp contrast with democracy. President Obama is actually managing to restore the radiance of the United States by means of impartiality in assessing world problems, and acting or reacting.

The United States’ flagrant and lethal unfairness toward the Humanity is testified by its three decades’ reluctance to help end Angola’s war against the United Nations ideal of universal peace in Cabinda. The following link helps understand this revolting reality:

http://cabindas.files.wordpress.com/2009/05/2008-05-19-us-angola-strategic-relations.pdf

Since criticism and debate turn out to be the principle that characterizes scholars and democracy, what is required of the United States now is a new era of responsibility by means of an authentic self-criticism. Here is another helpful link:

http://encarta.msn.com/encnet/refpages/RefArticle.aspx?refid=761578969

May God continue to utilize President Obama to free the United States and the world from unfairness and utilitarianism. Sincerely

[LiberalForever]

Thanks for this wonderful post. I think we all hope the Iranians can effect positive change in their government.

[GreatNews27]

Dateline June 21, 2009 Tehran

Tens of thousands of protestors were gunned down by Reveloutionary Guard forces in the streets of Tehran today. Without warning, gunships and helicopters swooped down on the crowds and began firing. 50 caliber machine guns spurted flame as they fired relentlessly into the paniced crowd. Blood and dead bodies were everywhere. After the crowds were dispersed, the army patrolled the streets shooting wounded protestors in the head and killing anything else that moved. It is estimated by some that over 5,000 Iranians were killed.

In other world news, Jon and Kate appear to have...........

[WilliamL]

It is a sincere hope that the Iranian people are able to move their political process foward and gain the changes they want to see in their gov't, lives, and country. Another term of Ahmadinejad does not seem to be in the best interest of any in the region, world.

It pleases me to see these people in the streets while recognizing their actions, as we have scene, may have deadly consequences. A lot of American activists might like to remind themselves of the luxuries of protesting in the states.

It is tough to believe much of anything from anyone regarding the ctry and region and post like this are def. helpful.

Thank you

[outnow]

If American had stood against the appointment of Bush we would not have had the financial meltdown and a few wars- maybe. 9-11 might not have happened. History proves that the people who appease dictators pay a greater price down the road in many cases. Iran has been full of dictators. Just because there is religion does not make it any better; in fact, it makes it worse because the power is used even more irrationally.

Separation of church and state is the first move to free people from dogma and ideologues.