Musharraf Loses a "Referendum"; Pakistan Wins Big

Early results from the Pakistan elections indicate a routing of the leadership of the Pakistan Muslim League (Q Group) that supported President Pervez Musharraf for the past five years and allowed him free reign effectively to convert Pakistan from a parliamentary to a presidential system. It appears that the Pakistani voter saw this election as a referendum on Musharraf. If so, he lost big.

Now what?

There is a possibility of a grand alliance at the center, involving former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and his Pakistan Muslim League (N), the Pakistan Peoples Party, and the mainstream Awami National Party of the North West Frontier Province, with even the urban Muttahida Qaumi Mahaz of Sindh joining in. This kind of government would provide a useful counterweight to the power that resided in the presidency for the past eight years plus. Former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto must be smiling in heaven: democracy indeed is the best revenge!

If Musharraf learns to co-habit with this new dispensation at the center, then he may be able to salvage his place in history. One hopes he resists the temptation to resort to political engineering which brought a previous president to his fall at the hands of an army chief who felt the impending chaos was not in Pakistan's interest. Indeed, the new army chief, General Ashfaq Parvez Kayani, must be credited with having helped prepare the ground for the people to exercise their franchise with confidence that the army would not be party to rigging. He and the army can now move back to the military part of the war on terrorists inside Pakistan.

The new government in Pakistan should now see the insurgency inside Pakistan and in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) as Pakistan's own war and not that of the US alone. And it needs to employ military tactics as part of an overall strategy that envelopes economic, social, and political approaches. The US should not have to push Pakistan into doing what is in its own interest on that front. Senator Joseph Biden must be pleased that the US can now have an alliance with the people of Pakistan and not with an autocrat, no matter how personally liberal he might be. And one hopes and prays that the new leadership in parliament will not wish to pander to the religious right, as the PML- Q did. Cutting deals with the Pakistani Taliban falls in that category. It never worked and never will.

An important part of the political puzzle now will be control of the critically huge province of the Punjab. If it is in concert with the government in Islamabad then Pakistan have a chance of stability that will allow it to regain its political footing and restore the teetering economy.

Stay tuned!

Shuja Nawaz is the author of Crossed Swords: Pakistan, its Army, and the Wars Within for Oxford University Press, April 2008. He writes and speaks on political issues for newspapers, radio, and television and at think tanks. He can be found at www.shujanawaz.com.

Comments

[ibsteve2u]

Now we just wait and see what happens should Dick Cheney visit Pakistan again.

[deminmo]

Most important is who minds the nukes!

[Flynnstone73]

There is an old Chinese proverb that is very appropriate here. It's the punch line used by an old man whose fortunes seem to change daily. So it goes that every time someone offers him congratulations or condolences he looks up at them and says.

"Good news bad news nobody knows."

[Troubledgoodangel]

Congratulations to Pakistan! I hope no one thinks of squandering this chance to restore peace and prosperity! The country will need international oversight for some time, to insure that its institutions do not fall in disrepair. The army should cease the self-defeating antagonism with the West. The Taliban should be asked to join the government and to disarm. It is not wise to fight them to the last man. Their beards will keep growing back regardless how many times they are cut off! Better idea is to gradually "reeducate" them in like fashion as the Sunnis in Iraq. I know it's sound futile, but there must be wise men in Pakistan to make this happen! I would ask Shariff what he thinks.

[Chavez08]

DAMN!!! They voted in a FAIR election?? People can actually enact CHANGE in their country???

How do we get this "Democracy" stuff here in America???

[MagisterLudi]

How do we get this "Democracy" stuff here in America???
1.VOTE,
2. Give money to local candidates you support.
3. Participate in street demonstrations.
4. Don't whine: act.

[bobpomeroy]

I don't know much about Pakistani politics, but in light of the obvious asassination tactic and the shadowy relationship with us (I note that the Bushies bombed Pakistan w/out consulting Mushy yesterday) anything which bodes his removal sounds real good. I'm sick of the imperialism being carried out in my name. Thank you Pakistan. I hope this marks a clean sweep for your country and restoration of it's sovereignty. Now if you guys can stop your mutual nuclear sabre rattling w/ India you can both enjoy greater stability, integrity and prosperity by allocating resources toward more productive ends.

[Bob Egan]

Now it might be possible for some of the money we send them will actually be used for the purpose intended!

[crimson]

1) Mush has already parted ways to PML(Q) when he started down the road with PPP. So let's not paint this as a referendum against Mush.

2) Try to give credit where credit is due. Mush and the caretaker government should be lauded for having a largely safe, transparent and fair election despite the tense circumstances in the region.

3) Don't know the currently slate of PPP and PML(N) candidates. But hopefully the same corrupt cronies from the '88-'99 era have faded into the wind.

4) Hopefully Mr A "10%" Zardari doesn't beocme Mr "100%" Zardari. Does PPP have guts to dump him?

[Steamboater]

Democracy? Be careful what you wish for.

[MagisterLudi]

"The new government in Pakistan should now see the insurgency inside Pakistan and in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) as Pakistan's own war and not that of the US alone. And it needs to employ military tactics as part of an overall strategy that envelopes economic, social, and political approaches."

The most intelligent comment on P-stani strategy for stability I've heard to date.

Thank you.

[abluevoice]

True an intelligent comment, but probably way too late to work as a political strategy. Pakistan's military and intelligence agencies are corrupted with Taliban and Al Qeada supporters, funded and fueled, by Bush's incompetent policies, support of Mush and war on the wrong battle field,in Iraq.
We have been blindly funding since 9/11 the Mush protected re-surgance of the Taliban and Al Qeada in Pakistan tribal areas and now we are seeing the effects of this in their resurgance in Afghanistan out of their Mush negotiated, safe havens in tribal areas of Pakistan.
Added to this, radical Islam in the form of Taliban and Al Qeada tryanny has positioned itself as a alternative to the US and Mush policies in Pakistan.
If these radical Muslim despots gain majority contol of the Mush-less military and intelligence agencies, a weak coalition government, no matter how progressive or Democratic will not have the means to stand up to the increased suicide bombing tactics of the Taliban and Al Qeada.
And Pakistan has real weapons of mass destructio­n....Nukes­! But nobody holds Bush accountable in this country.

[MagisterLudi]

"a weak coalition government, no matter how progressive or Democratic will not have the means to stand up to the increased suicide bombing tactics of the Taliban and Al Qeada."

True. Also it would be nice if the civilian government does not begin looting Pakistani treasury in the mode of Bhutto family.

Otherwise, P-stan will follow Weimar Republic and Gaza down the drain.

[pakspectator]

PAKISTAN HAS SPOKEN. Just few hours ago, head honcho of PML-Quashed, Chaudhary Shujaat declared that they will clean sweep the Punjab and will form government in Sindh and Balochistan with MQM and BNP respectively. Chaudhary Pervaiz Elahi left no words to flaunt his inevitable victory. They were disgustingly rejected by the voters of Pakistan. Same was the case with other turncoats but big names like Shiekh Rashid, Sher Afgun, Rao Sikander, Hamid Nasir Chatta, Ishaq Khakwani, Naseer Khan. All the ministers of former governments were just brushed away like dust by the voters.

Pakistan People’s Party, PPP, is all set to emerge as the single largest party with around 110 seats in National Assembly, with clear majority in Sindh Province and a heavy presence in Quetta and Balochistan. Sympathy vote plus the seething anger against PML-Q is the factor behind this monumental win for this party of assassinated Benazir Bhutto.

Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz, PML-N, is set to gain somewhere around 90 seats in the national assembly becoming the second largest party in Pakistan, with clear majority in Punjab province, and marginal presence in NWFP, and almost no presence in Balochistan.

Awami National Party, ANP, the Pashtun party, which is socialist in nature has received a rousing support from the voters of NWFP.

So in the center, a coalition government between PPP and PML-N is emerging. Sindh goes to PPP, MQM also could join PPP in Sindh. Punjab goes to PML-N, and PPP could also join it there. Balochistan will again have a loose coalition government between PPP, BNP, and independents. PML-Q could also form a government in Balochistan by joining hands with JUI-F and independents.

The Pakistani Spectator

[abluevoice]

So how will any of this stop the suicide bombings and resurgance of the Taliban and Al Qeada tyranny seeking chaos in Pakistan? Especially since they have much support within the Pakistan Military and intelligence agencies.
Iran is not the US's biggest threat it is Pakistan. And it has happened under the guidance of our fool of a President who has turned a blind eye to our real enemies the Taliban and Al Qeada and their 6 years of re-grouping in a US funded safe haven in the tribal areas of Pakistan.
Bush let this happen under his watch while wasting billions of dollars and accepting unnecessary loss of lives trying to justify a mistake he lied the US into in Iraq. And now McCain wants more of the same. Yet nobody in the media or the Congress is holding Bush and crew accountable for this dangerous and seemingly unsolvable mess they have created.

[raptor]

Senator Biden: "I wonder why I was the first person in our family not to notice an opposition in Pakistan".

[HowardRoarke]

Congratulations, Pakistan!