- fears are rising that the elections may not be held, following a secret deal between President Pervez Musharraf and one of the major political opposition parties,
- or that they will be heavily rigged to sustain his favorite Pakistan Muslim League (Q group),
- or that the opposition parties will score a huge anti-Musharraf win.
Take your pick!
Regardless of what happens, one thing seems certain, this will be Pakistan's Year of Tumult. The drumbeat of criticism and unsolicited advice for Pakistan and its leaders is rising. Meanwhile Musharraf, concerned about the growing negative commentary from the West, has taken upon himself the role of propagandist-in-chief. He may have convinced himself that he turned the tide after his recent tour of Europe, where he hectored those who asked difficult questions. His advisors will certainly tell him how wonderfully he parried the thrusts of his critics. But all is not well at home. Serious divisions persist and terror is on the rise, with deaths due to terrorist acts last year exceeding 3,350, five times 2005 and suicide bombings reaching close to 50, compared with only 2 in 2002. Now, the Pakistan army again has become the target of militant suicide attacks. PR is not the answer to Pakistan's ills.
This may be time for a different tack in Pakistani politics. Here are some suggestions for Pakistan's political leaders:
Forget the commentaries from overseas for now. Start with the premise that Pakistan's problems begin and end at home. Recognize too that Pakistanis are the worst critics of the country and all it stands for. Why not shift the focus from what is wrong with everyone else on Pakistan's political scene to what is right and could be strengthened? In short, it may be time for positive reinforcement.
Musharraf and the other major leaders need to recognize that the ultimate goal is to stabilize Pakistan's polity, beginning with civilized political discourse. This has been absent from the relatively low-key political campaigns that have been conducted under the fear of terrorist attacks. Rather than painting each other in extreme colors and demonizing the parties and institutions that do not agree with your views, why not stress what you can do to improve the lot of the poorest Pakistanis, and how you would strengthen the national identity?
There is a lot that provides hope for Pakistan's development as a nation. It has political parties that are attempting to form a transnational base for themselves, breaking out of their provincial redoubts. Allow that to happen. Why shouldn't the largely Sindh-based Muttahida Qaumi Mahaz of Altaf Hussain serve as the voice of the urban classes in the Punjab, North West Frontier Province, and Balochistan? By broadening its base, it may slough off its cultish and militant past. Why not recognize the positive political role of the Islamic parties in the discourse on the Islamic identity of Pakistan so they can deny space to the militant Islamists that have chosen terror as their weapon? Why not give credit to the Pakistan Muslim League (N) of Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif for starting the privatizing movement and beginning the national highway system that binds the country together in more ways than one? And the Pakistan Peoples Party of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto and his daughter Benazir Bhutto for representing the dispossessed and giving voice to the rural poor? Finally, recognize the Pakistan Muslim League (Q) for allowing an economic program to exist that gave businesses some stability for their growth in the past eight years and for building on the work of the other parties that preceded it in power. Despite its tie-in with the inflows after 9/11 and the widening income disparities, it gave Pakistani businesses a chance to grow.
Looking back into our history, recognize also the key role of a military dictator, Field Marshall M. Ayub Khan for setting Pakistan's economy on the path of planned development and starting an industrial base in the 1960s.
No matter that individual governments and parties may have succumbed to corruption and violence. Or that some policies produced negative unintended consequences. The politics of living in the past and vindictiveness and retribution have not worked in Pakistan's favor. Rather they have allowed provincialism and ethnic separation to rise.
If Pakistan is to break out of this cycle of mutual recrimination and craft a stable entity that will thrive and grow economically and politically, then Pakistan leaders, starting with President Musharraf, should begin stressing the positive and shun the negativity that seems to be guiding their words and deeds. He should recognize the strong role both of an independent judiciary that can provide swift and affordable justice to the people of Pakistan, and the emerging news media that can shed light on events so an informed electorate can make up its mind about issues of national import.
Meanwhile, Pakistan's foreign friends can use quiet diplomacy and moral suasion to steer us on to that path, following the example of its Chinese friends. Only thus will representative democracy work in Pakistan and the society benefit from its fledgling but energetic new media and a responsible but free judiciary. The February 18 elections should be seen as only one step toward these goals. Politics as usual will only produce further turmoil in 2008 and Musharraf may well end up inside the tiger he is now riding.
Shuja Nawaz is the author of Crossed Swords: Pakistan, its army, and the wars within for Oxford University Press, due April 2008. He regularly appears as a commentator on television, radio, and at think tanks.