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Simon Johnson

Simon Johnson

Posted: February 12, 2010 10:00 PM

Greece Derails: Is Europe Far Behind?

What's Your Reaction:

Already facing serious difficulties – both internal and with regard to its EU partners (see our longer essay in Saturday’s WSJ) – Greece’s predicament just became substantially worse.

Speaking on national television this evening, the Greek Prime Minister – George Papandreou – lashed out at the European Union (presumably meaning mostly Germany) for creating a “psychology of looming collapse which could be self-fulfilling.” He also implied that Greece was being treated, in some senses, like a “lab animal.”

Without doubt, EU engagement with Greece over the past week or three has not be well-managed – and the pseudo-announcement of support after the summit on Thursday was a complete amateur hour.

But Greece has real problems that need to be confronted and it will go much easier for everyone if there is external assistance. You cannot overspend in the Greek fashion without eventually facing a reckoning.

The Greek government is implicitly suggesting collapse – with the possibility of contagion to Portugal and Spain (and thence to the banking system of Latin America, etc). But this is a very dangerous game. Greece is not Goldman Sachs – it cannot credibly threaten to bring down the world’s entire financial system.

Less well-run countries default on their debts with some regularity. To be sure, it is awkward for a eurozone member to be forced into the arms of the IMF – but several European Union members are there already (e.g., Latvia, Romania.) Korea had to borrow from the Fund in 1997, despite having recently become a member of the OECD – which stamp previously was considered to connote respectability and stability.

Greece is well down the path to becoming regarded more like Argentina – a country that struggles over many decades (and whose leaders frequently rail against the world) and for which episodes of reasonable prosperity and new economic models are punctuated by gut-wrenching crises, most of which do not shake the world.

Will the EU save Greece? Much will depend on how bad the situation could become in other “related” (in the eyes of the financial markets) places.

But destabilizing actions or inflammatory statements by Greece make an orderly rescue less likely and put another major international economic crisis firmly on the table.

 
 
 
Already facing serious difficulties – both internal and with regard to its EU partners (see our longer essay in Saturday’s WSJ) – Greece’s predicament just became substantially...
Already facing serious difficulties – both internal and with regard to its EU partners (see our longer essay in Saturday’s WSJ) – Greece’s predicament just became substantially...
 
 
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Linda from Deerfield
Paying attention
08:13 PM on 02/15/2010
Why doesn't anyone explore the impact of Greece's devastating fires? Is compassion so out of fashion?
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
Ergon
Man From Atlan
11:28 AM on 02/19/2010
Good point, but do examine the corruption of its previous administration as well.
02:16 PM on 02/15/2010
New Prime Minister George Papandreou was left with a huge mess by former PM Karamanlis; it will take a bit of time to fix Karamanlis's massive screw-ups and outright corruption. Papandreou and President Obama have a lot in common, just on different scales.
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directfitz
12:43 PM on 02/15/2010
It sounded in your original post like you were making a blanket statement about all private vs government employees. I don't know much about the prison guards union. I can tell they are powerful. And I've worked in prisons in my career. I have to say it's the worst job on Earth. So I'm really not sure if they are asking for anything that is not appropriate.
12:32 PM on 02/15/2010
what about the role played by goldman sachs??????????????? I suspect there are more debts incurrred by more countries who are under the EU euro umbrella that have been involved with goldman sachs . . . italy is another one . . . will berlesqueoni . . . bail italy out using his own resources? doubt it . .
01:54 PM on 02/14/2010
2005- Secretary of Treasury Hank Paulson stated the only EXPORT AMERICA had was FINANCIAL SERVICES!

NO ONE has questioned this- EVER!

Bloomberg-WSJ-Financial TIMES- CNBC - blah blah blah

Hank was in DAVOS-- see Archives at CSPAN!
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HUFFPOST COMMUNITY MODERATOR
utd
It would be funny if weren't so serious.
01:01 PM on 02/14/2010
Greece is nothing but a scapegoat for other countries in Europe to blame their impending failures on. They could pay all their debts back or not and it won't make a difference.
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Ergon
Man From Atlan
12:48 PM on 02/14/2010
Personally I'd like the Greeks to cancel, not default on their debt obligations, kick out the bankers, and solve their own problems. Which can be done.
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mickthebiologist
Field ecologist
10:49 AM on 02/19/2010
Absolutely.

The us of a decided, on a scale that dwarfs Greece, to print fake money charged to its citizens to reward criminal behavior that has devastated many millions.

Greece, via its citizenry, who are not at fault in this fiasco of private coruption, with major fault lying at the feet of the derivatives fakery in the us of a, can simply write off the debt now, sequester their government's financial system sans the international banking and mortgage system, federalize all large private enterprise into non-profit, publically-held organizations, re-value the assets just seized with the personal bank accounts of the philanderers, and pay off the debt via asset redistribution.

Will this be yet another example of the few enslaving the many through their own conscious misdeeds? Or will Argentinian-style revolt prevail, without the petty bourgeoisie continually vying for a spot on 'let's make a deal'?

How far does the hand of Rothschild extend? Best bet is: pretty far.
09:48 AM on 02/14/2010
Add up the salaries of the top two hundred executives, plus what share holders and insurance companies have skimmed off the top.

I think you'll find it makes all the difference.
12:40 PM on 02/15/2010
Greece's deficit (or debt) is only 40 billion dollars. This could easily be found under the cushions of either Greece's wealthy inhabitants or that of Europe. There is no crisis, except that the poor people are finally refusing to play the rich's parlor games.
09:29 AM on 02/14/2010
Nader
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JBS
Part time misanthrope & full time curmudgeon
02:09 AM on 02/16/2010
Just another crooked politician.
08:30 AM on 02/14/2010
Greedy bankers, ignorant Republicans who will filibuster anything regarding consumer protection, a president who is more Republican than Democrat, Tea-Party loonies, Glen Beck, and Sarah Palin.

Wow, if this doesn't make you want to be a recluse in cabin somewhere in the Rocky Mountains, nothing will.

Elizabeth Warren for President, 2012.
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bigfro
07:10 AM on 02/14/2010
well big surprise. Obama didn't fix anything. No one was arrested. No new regulations were put in play. The banks are still betting with toxic mortgages and the bailout money is running out. Shame on you Obama. You continue Bush's policies to the ruin of us all.

Howard dean 2012
05:47 AM on 02/14/2010
It appears the same ones who brought down Wall St and the banking industry got into bed with the financial greedy idiots all over the world and raped and pillaged them as well. It doesn't take a financial genius to see the domino effect here--Greece, Italy, Portugal, etc. may go down and take everyone else with them as that occurs. Look what happened to Iceland. The UK is still staggering. That has already happened here by Obama bailing out the banks and Wall St even as they keeping taking outrageous bonuses. It isn't over, or even halted here. It has been prolonged and the tsunami wave coming is going to be devastating on all of us. Fools are in charge and no one is listening to the realists and doing what really needs to be done to turn this destruction around.
04:05 AM on 02/14/2010
Let's see... Over spending may cause Greece to collapse.

Sound familiar?

As a citizen of this country, tell the Democrats to stop spending money like it's going out of style (which it is).
08:36 AM on 02/14/2010
I'm sure you were wanting to tell the Republicans to stop spending money like it's going out of style during the 8 years of the Bush administration. Remember that time? Two wars not paid for? Does that ring a bell. Tax cuts 2001 and 2003 for the richest in America? Deficits every year! How pathetic the double standard is.
12:41 PM on 02/14/2010
Hey PROUDLIBERAL2 - Do you know Goldwawa? If not, you have no idea what he/she felt during the last administration. I hate to stereotype, but typical liberal: if someone speaks out against a government gone awry you immediately assume we're simply bashing Obama/Dems. Get a clue! Its POLITICIANS in GENERAL! Bush spent like a drunken sailor. For that reason alone he was a poor President. Obama grabbed the executive pen and has been showering EVERYTHING with "free" money ever since. For that reason alone he IS a poor President. Two wrongs do not make a right, i'm sure you are intelligent enough to figure that out. How pathetic YOUR DOUBLE STANDARD IS!
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PhilipTaylor
Legalized Bribery is an Oxymoron - must END
03:20 AM on 02/14/2010
YES FOR G0LDMAN CLIENTS ARE VICTIMS ARE CLIENTS!

How G0LDMAN Helped Greece to Mask its True Debt
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/0,1518,676634,00.html

G0LDMAN helped Greek government hide its deficit using Derivatives Deal to circumvented EU deficit rules. G0LDMAN charged a massive FEE (Like JPM was found guilty of doing) for the deal and sold the swaps on to a Greek bank in 2005.

Like G0LDMAN always does to its clients, it then placed massive NEGATIVE bets against the Client so G0LDMAN profits BIG on their Client’s (the Greek Bank’s) downfall!

Creative “ENR0N” accounting took priority! G0LDMAN devised a special kind of swap with fictional exchange rates to enabled Greece to receive a far higher sum and that also helped justify the massive FEES.
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01:53 AM on 02/14/2010
There's a few billion dollars they p!ssed down the Athens Olympics toilet that I'm sure the greeks would like a Mulligan on. From here in Vancouver, that's a frightening thought.
01:17 AM on 02/16/2010
Thank you, I was waiting to see if anybody would point that out.