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Simon Johnson

Simon Johnson

Posted: January 24, 2010 02:20 PM

Is the "Volcker Rule" More Than a Marketing Slogan?

What's Your Reaction:

At the broadest level, Thursday's announcement from the White House was encouraging -- for the first time, the president endorsed potential new constraints on the scale and scope of our largest banks, and said he was ready for "a fight." After a long, tough argument, Paul Volcker appeared to have finally persuaded President Obama that the unconditional bailouts of 2008-2009 planted the seeds for another major economic crisis.

But how deep does this conversion go? On the "deep" side is the signal implicit in the fact that Volcker stood behind the president while Tim Geithner was further from the podium than any Treasury Secretary in living memory. Where you stand at major White House announcements is never an accident.

Increasingly, however, there are very real indications that the conversion is either superficial (on the economic side of the White House) or entirely a marketing ploy (on the political side). Here are the five top reasons to worry.

  1. Secretary Geithner's spin on the Volcker Rule, Thursday night on the Lehrer NewsHour, is in direct contradiction to what the president said. At first, it seemed that Geithner was just off-message. Now it is more likely that he is (still) the message.
  2. The White House background briefing on Thursday morning gave listeners the strong impression that these new proposals would freeze the size of our largest banks "as is." Again, this is strongly at odds with what the president said and seemed -- at the time -- to indicate insufficient preparation and message drift. But who is really drifting now, the aides or the president?
  3. At the heart of the substance of the "Volcker Rule," if the idea is literally to freeze the banks at or close to their current size, this makes no sense at all. Why would anyone regard twenty years of reckless expansion, a massive global crisis, and the most generous bailout in recorded history as the recipe for creating "right" sized banks? There is absolutely no evidence, for example, that the increase in bank scale since the mid-1990s has brought anything other than huge social costs -- in terms of direct financial rescues, the fiscal stimulus needed to prevent another Great Depression, and millions of lost jobs. On reflection, perhaps the president really still doesn't get this.
  4. Since Thursday, the White House has gone all out for the reconfirmation of Ben Bernanke, whereas gently backing away from him -- or at least not being so enthusiastic - would have sent a clearer signal that the president is truly prepared to be tough on big banks and their supporters. Unless Bernanke unexpectedly changes his stripes, his reappointment at this time gives up a major hostage to fortune -- and to those Democrats and Republicans opposing serious financial reform.
  5. As the White House begins to campaign for the November midterms, how will they answer the question: What exactly did they "change" relative to what any other potential administration would have done in the face of a financial crisis? How will they counter anyone who claims, citing Rahm Emanuel, that: "The crisis is over, and we wasted it." No answer is yet in sight.

The Geithner strategy of being overly nice to the mega-banks was not good economics and has proven impossible to sell politically -- the popular hostility to his approach is just common sense prevailing over technical mumbo jumbo.

But selling incoherent mush with a mixed message and cross-eyed messengers could be even worse.

Cross-posted with The Baseline Scenario.

 
 
 
 
 
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TAIsabel
Suffer no fools.
07:58 AM on 01/26/2010
"A great empire and little minds go ill together" Edmund Burke

From day one, many of us saw the writing on the wall by bringing the Goldman Gang to the White House. At this stage of the game President Obama's credibility is in question which goes straight to the core. It is no longer a question of tactics or strategy, we are now questioning his core.

Unless the country sees a real move away from the Wall Street crowd, things will continue to deteriorate. Congress can confirm Bernanke, just for the sake of continuity (appearances) but, Obama still has a chance to prove his mettle by getting rid of Geithner and Summers. Just like the positioning of Volcker to his right sent a message, how about we bring him out of the background and into the forefront. Bernanke can be held in check with the right team.
03:01 AM on 01/26/2010
The jig is likely up. Our debt based money system can no longer grow with private debt so we have to rely on govt debt and this also is unsustainable. Total debt is now 57 trillion,over 370% of GDP. Without ever increasing debt, the system crashes. By propping up Wall Street, they hope to increase financial debt (leverage) enough to keep the system going although this does little for most people.

We need to take back the money power from private bankers. Eliminate compound interest as much as possible. It grows exponentially, economies do not so it is a mathematical certainty that the jig will be up at some point. That point is likely near. No other solution will work aside from a massive debt destruction like the great depression or destruction of the dollar or both.

Quote: “The refusal of King George to allow the colonies to operate an honest money system, which freed the ordinary man from clutches of the money manipulators was probably the prime cause of the revolution” -Benjamin Franklin, Founding Father
04:49 PM on 01/25/2010
This just might be the beginning of the end. Voters can put the GOP back in charge but they don't have any ideas other than wave the flag, quote the bible and start another war. The whole rotten system must be replaced and that's not going to happen until things get real ugly and the sh*t hits the fan. Obama has been a huge disappointment. Other than Wall Street who is he trying to please. I bought into his BS and now I'm thoroughly disgusted. The Right is giddy with Obama's failure but they just don't get it. ALL the BLOODY politicians are scoundrels & liars sold to the highest corporate bidder. They may tell their base what the base wants to hear but they sold the people out a long time ago. I'm getting old so my time in this Idiocracy is limited but I fear for my children & grandchildren.
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HUFFPOST SUPER USER
TheIndependenceParty
Cranky yankee and a rehabilitated ex-Republican
04:18 PM on 01/25/2010
Obama seems increasingly out of touch with citizen sentiment in America.

It is the blatant cynicism, ... the disparity between words and deeds which caused the defeat of Coakley in MA last week. Not so much disparity in Coakley's campaign, ... there was none. She was so out of touch with the voters in the Bay State it is a miracle she was not trounced in an even greater margin.

No, ... it is the disparity in Obama's administration, and its lack of deeds which angers Americans most.

If the "Volcker Policy" is nothing but words, while Tim, Larry and Ben continue to cater to the every whim of Wall Street, the Fall Elections will truly be a political apocalypse for the Democratic Party.

I will continue to work on behalf of my select Senate candidate, Joe Sestak, ... simply because at this moment he has not acquiesced to this fraudulent misrepresentation of reality as practiced out of the White House and by the Democrats at large.

If you believe we forgot the election in MA already, or the blatant betrayal of our support for the president as he did nothing for our concerns on the economy, ... you Democratic leaders ignore the truth at your own peril.
03:39 PM on 01/25/2010
"Secretary Geithner's spin on the Volcker Rule, Thursday night on the Lehrer NewsHour, is in direct contradiction to what the president said. At first, it seemed that Geithner was just off-message. Now it is more likely that he is (still) the message."

Just like the Sec of State and the Defense Sec comments after the West Point Speech.

Don't pay any attention to what ANY WH adminstration says. No matter who's in office.
Watch what they do.
People will show you who they are.
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ugly american
"I drank what?"- Last words of Socrates
02:52 PM on 01/25/2010
Quite frankly, I had hopedin 2008 we were voting in our generation's Franklin Roosevelt. But what it appears we have is an updated version of Herbert Hoover complete with Andrew Mellon. Mellon wanted to keep money flowing to the banksters too. And that helped what started as a recession in 1929 turn into the Great Depression.

Obama brought advisers with him who know what happened last time. And promptly ditched them for these "experianced pros" Summers and Geitner and Bernake. Yeah they are experianced...at causing catastrophe.

Until Roosevelt started helping the people the banks had harmed, nothing got better. Things have not changed in eighty years, just the names of the people involved. We now are left to figure out who is in whose role.
02:23 PM on 01/25/2010
Sadly it appears the message is window dressing. The politicos from both parties get too much in the way of donations to really get serious with Wall Street and bank reform.
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Susan Cain
01:04 PM on 01/25/2010
Massive debt both privately and corporate. No real production, what we in the West consume is what has been manufactured off shore with cheaper overheads. You can not have a viable economy if you are not producing something. The auto sector as been downsized, steel, even clothing and toys. Almost everything we buy we can purchase offshore for far less than what we make here. To say that Buy America is the way? the consumer will buy whatever they can for the cheapest price plain and simple. We have had our glory days, public and private unions along with corporate and financial greed have pretty much killed the golden goose. What will occur is a very painful adjustments where wages and standard of living are going to realign worldwide. The haves are going to have much less, the have nots will see an increase in their household incomes. This adjustment will occur over time, there is no magic wand. People are going to loose their overmortgaged homes, 4 cars, 3 trips a year , private schools and manicures.
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silverstreet
All you need is love
01:19 PM on 01/25/2010
I wonder where you live. I travel across the country frequently. All I see are sad burned out towns and cities -- north, south, east, west. Pockets of affluence amid swaths of poverty. "4 cars, 3 trips a year, private schools and manicures" -- I wonder who these people are.
02:25 PM on 01/25/2010
"4 cars, 3 trips a year, private schools and manicures" silverstreet. These people are a big part of the population. I understand that you see the extremes where you are but I also see these people, I may even be considered one of these people, am I overleveraged? Absolutley, not to this extreme, but yes most people according to what I think the definition of overleveraged is would be. I agree with Susan that wages and statndard of living need to realign and will adjust overtime.
12:55 PM on 01/25/2010
If the "Volker Rule" were more than a marketing slogan, then Geithner, Summers, Bernanke, and Emanuel would be resigning their jobs to "spend more time with family."
02:12 PM on 01/25/2010
Sad but true.
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11:39 AM on 01/25/2010
These kind of people; Giethner, Summers, Emamuel, et al got to where they are not because they are intelligent, enlightened people. They got to where they are because they are adept at getting people smarter than them to do their bidding and then co-opting whatever ideas these smarter people come up with. It's called "Political Science." So in fact Giethner and Summers masquerade as learned men but they are simply shills for a corrupt system.

The challenge is to bring in people into the political system who have scruples and principles, and aren't corrupted by Wall Street. Switching back and forth and forth and back between democrats and republicans simply reinforces the old saying that was so aptly sung by The Who in "Won't Get Fooled Again."

Meet the new boss. Same as the old boss.
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mickthebiologist
Field ecologist
03:49 AM on 01/26/2010
The concepts 'clever' and 'cunning' come to mind. There are many styles of so-called intelligence. The practice of usury is quite cunning, especially when there is no implicit ethical or explicit moral paradigm to bother with.

The simpler the strategy, the greater chance for success. The complexity comes in the details, and thus, the amount and severity of 'collateral damage' grows exponentially.

The only sure way to derail a runaway train is to move the track, just one length on one side. The Ridicupublicans are a classic example of this strategy. They see the world through rose-colored blinders with both hands grabbing their buttocks. Just kill the government, a simple strategy.

Ethics and compassion are subtleties of enormous complexity, which is why truly intelligent people grasp them, and refer to their exercise as 'practice.'

This 'system' never was anything but propaganda. Smoke and mirrors. If you read the constitution carefully, and ask yourself HOW the citizenry actually has methodology to manage not only itself but its 'public servants,' you will quickly see that the document is a chimera dressed as a fuzzy lamb.
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BluestateGuyInTX
A Connecticut yankee in Emperor Bush's Town.
11:26 AM on 01/25/2010
I was thinking in terms of firing Geithner but I'm beginning to think we are going to have to fire Obama via a primary challenge. He's just not working out.
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libwingoflibwing
Leftist, Christian, Non-Violent Revolutionary
12:48 PM on 01/25/2010
Who could be our Ted Kennedy in 2012?
04:52 PM on 01/25/2010
Kunich, Grayson? Maybe there's an outsider. But something's got to give.

I wish that Candidate Obama who was running in 2008 was around. I liked him.
10:49 AM on 01/25/2010
In response to your other article, Obama will not appoint Paul Krugman to head up the Fed or Treasury for the same reason he didn't appoint Howard Dean to be Health & Human Services Secretary. Because Rahm Emanuel will oppose it. I seriously believe the best thing Obama can do for this economy is fire Rahm, Geithner, and Summers along with NOT support Bernanke.
11:37 AM on 01/25/2010
Maybe he should fire himself too. We didn't elect Rahm, Geithner, or Summers in 2008 to do JACK! The mere fact that he could be paralyzed to act in opposition to the wishes of his own appointees is clear evidence that he is not up to the job. I am staunchly anti-republican and was a strong supporter of the Obama candidacy. But, one has to admit one's mistakes (if we want to aspire to more than Dubbya). A year into this, he is very apparently not up to the immense challenges our we face after the debacle of an 8 year GWB presidency.
11:47 AM on 01/25/2010
I'm inclined to agree.
10:19 AM on 01/25/2010
GOOD MORNING!!! MY FELLOW HOMO SAPIENS WHICH MEANS THE SPECIES WHO IS WISE.
QUESTION: How many Americans believe that the U.S. Senate will pass worthwhile regulations of the Bank/Investment Corporations while the U.S. Senate is still owned and operated by these very corporations they SAY???!!! they want to regulate???!!!
This is a question a 7 year old can answer, hopefully the American people can figure it out and the truth is the last thing those swindling global corporations want is a Consumer Protection Agency that will be holding these corrupt corporations accountable and would be prosecuting any and all criminal activities since the SEC, the Department of Obstruction of Justice and other regulatory agencies have become totally useless because they have been corrupted by the Robber Barons.
It is almost impossible today to find anyone in the Federal Government who is on the side of the American people which is another good reason why the people of this country no longer have a republic. PURR (PATRIOTS UNITED FOR THE RETURN OF THE REPUBLIC)
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pjwrites
09:57 AM on 01/25/2010
Mr. Volcker is part of the problem. Why the sudden turn-around in his beliefs?
He is the guy who wants to control the "free" market, not let it work on its own.
Any man who encourages manipulation and obfuscation over truth and transparency is not on our side, people.

Get them all out. Every face we see in Washington, familiar or not familiar, is there for a reason and that reason is that they have been placed there.

Don't fall for the new faces. They hide the old faces.

It's time to fight back.
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11:17 AM on 01/25/2010
The "Free Market" is a myth. Even Adam Smith acknowledged that.
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sixchair
Always left, usually right
11:27 AM on 01/25/2010
I think we're seeing how the "free" market has worked so far. Free for some, expensive for others.
09:33 AM on 01/25/2010
People are very sceptical of his motives as he has lost the trust the people had in him at the beginning of his mandate. By surrounding himself with people like Emanuel, Geithner, Summers and Bernanke he obviously decided early on not to change the way things have always been done this is just not good enough.