The Story of the Race So Far -- the Surprising Weakness of John McCain
First Newsweek showed Obama up 51-36. Now LATimes/Bloomberg has it 48-33. The two daily tracks Rasmussen and Gallup still have it 4-6 points. So where are we?
I believe deeply that the race for president wants to be a 10 point Obama victory. The underlining structure of the 2008 campaign has Democrats with 10 plus point advantages in all the major measures -- party ID, congressional and presidential generic ballot test. In 2006, the national vote for Congress broke about 53-46, and Tom Davis, the savvy GOP Congressman, says the environment is much worse this year. Democrats are showing incredible intensity, and have created a new model of politics that will allow them to involve millions of partisans to help the campaign as never before. As I wrote recently, Democratic leaning groups -- women, African-Americans, Hispanics and Millennials -- turned out in very high numbers in the Democratic primaries, offering what might be a very different electorate in 2008. McCain is by any historic measure, a weak and bumbling candidate, ill-suited for a presidential race, and is still struggling to bring his party together -- a party which has never liked him very much anyway.
The polling has been remarkably consistent in one regard. In almost every poll, Obama is in the high 40s, which would lead one to believe this is actually where he is now. What is changing is McCain's number, which is moving around in a range from the low 40s to mid-30s. 42, 42, 38, 36 and now 33.
The conclusion -- Obama is definitively ahead of John McCain at this point. Obama has unified his party and overcome problems he had with groups in the primary. He is already ahead in polls in enough states, including CO, FL, MI, NM and PA to see his path to electoral college victory. All rather remarkable for this bi-racial candidate with a funny name who few had heard of even a year ago. McCain, on the other hand, is clearly struggling to get even into the low 40s on a consistent basis. He is having a hard time bringing his party together, and his electoral college map looks problematic now. Even if Obama wins by 4-5 points, it is by presidential standards a landslide. Bush never won by that amount in either of his races. These new double digit polls also show that it is possible for this race to end up where it wants to be - which is Obama winning by 10 or more. Even the ambition of the Obama buy this week is as much about McCain's weakness as it about Obama's strength.
I always assumed that this race would be close until October and then would break open for Obama with him winning by 5-10 points. But the fact that we are seeing this degree of McCain weakness this early is surprising to me, and it is this weakness that is the story of the presidential race so far.
This was cross-posted on the NDN Blog.
Follow Simon Rosenberg on Twitter: www.twitter.com/ndn729
Loading comments…
Want to reply to a comment? Hint: Click "Reply" at the bottom of the comment; after being approved your comment will appear directly underneath the comment you replied to
McCaint is tepid. He makes Bob Dole seem like a youngster compared to McCaint. Look at the reception for him (excluding the protesters) compared to Barack. There will be a lot of nasty bigoted stuff out there about Barack, but that won't make up for the lack of enthusiasm for McCaint.
McCain is weak BECAUSE BUSH IS WEAK.
His "brain" belongs to his HANDLERS, not to himself.
McCain is ANOTHER "DUH" MAN.
He doesn't have the brains for the job.
I would use the proven pollisters Rasmussen, and Gallop, although it is too early to believe any poll wait until the conventions are over, those will be more accurate.
Actually Rasmussen and Gallop are less accurate every year and generally favor conservatives
Aren't people who answer unsolicited calls on their land lines generally older white people?
I suspect the communist China leaders would rather see Obama in over McCain. Don't be surprised if they help inflation pick up by increasing the value of the Yuan by 10 or 20 percent in the coming months. Higher inflation would hurt McCain's chances. It would also be a demonstration to the world of their power. They understand their perceived power over the US would motivate other countries to follow them at our detriment.
Its actually McCain they favor! Do you ever really listen to the news. They are concerned that Obama would try to reduce outsourcing/MFG and get our tarriffs inline with the high tarriffs they charge on American goods (22.5% vs our 2.5%).
Why would they want Obama when they can have for Free trade with McCain BUSH style which has us growing at 1%, amassing huge debts and trade deficits with them? BUSH is the best president they have ever had!
BUSH as been trying to get them to delink from the dollar so we are more competative with them for years... iunfortunately since our MFG is so gutted what different whould it make now (too late)... our number one export to them is SCRAP! While we import computers and high tech from them along with food and almost all of our clothing and appliances.
Many Asian/Mid east countries are having to de link from the dollar because of its 62% devaluation under BUSH in just the past 5 years.. to help reduce their inflation.
And yes when they delink, the low ,low prices at Wal-Mart will be over and the Amercian STD of living will drop another 25-35% thanks to BUSH's huge deficts and Trade deficits. You can add that 25% STD of living drop to Americnas losing half their networth under BUSH/Repugs.
The stock market in real constant dollars is now less than half what it was when BUSH took office.
Regards
AOL polls are of very doubtful reliability. I won't participate in them because I'm not sure that my opinions would be kept confidential. In the message boards they used to have, you had to be known by your email address. At least, AOL never made it clear how you could participate under a pseudonym. No way I'd give out my email address, considering all the whack jobs who are still fanatically loyal to Bush. Then too, the political climate has become so repressive, a lot of people might be reluctant to give out any opinion critical of a Bush/GOP policy or candidate. Obviously, the results of taking a poll under such conditions are going to be skewed.
I think the national polls showing Obama ahead of McCain are false, period. I just looked at an AOL poll that showed McCain up by 15 points.
Everyday, I am bombarded with Republican emails about Obama---------many are racist slurrs, many are just plain ridiculous---------but the onslaught against Obama has not even begun yet. He will never win.
I hear McCain will pull out of the race at the last minute because of health reasons and the Republicans will put a new face on the race.
It's far from over.
I wish Hillary was still on the ticket.
You're looking at AOL which is run by Time Warner, the biggest of all the MSM corp's. they are so slanted right it's not funny. AOL viewers think Cindy McSame is wonderful! So there ya' go! Not hard to be a happy camper when you inherit $100 million dollars. Her world is very different and seriously more privileged than anyone I know.
Unless you make more than $2.8 million a year, there is no reason to vote GOP, if you do, you're voting against your own best interests.
But then, you're so smart your angry every one won't go along with the okey doke any longer, and we're actually complaining about the way this country is being run, HOW DARE WE SAY WE ARE MISERABLE!
I for one have had it! NO MCSAME, NO MCBUSH!
You can't take anything an AOL instant "poll" (or CNN or FOX or any website for that matter) seriously - they're not at all scientific. First, any AOL "poll" is self selected - only people who use AOL (an ever declining number AND an aging demographic) will participate. Already your way off in terms of real polling. Put that on top of the fact that you can "vote" as often as you want, usually (just log off and on again) and you're into numbers that a meaningless.
While I don't pay too much attention to polls early out - the trends are undeniable. Obama is rising and McCain is floundering. Of course, it's early and anything could happen. But, as far as the "replace McCain" rumor - I've heard it myself. My question is - how does the party get McCain to agree? It makes very little sense when one reasons it through.
I'm sorry, I didn't realize anyone still used AOL!!!
Boy, talk about conspiracy theories. mc Cain would try to run if he was dead.
Regards
HuffPost I have to admit the picture of McCain clenching his teeth in the pop section is rather funny. All I can say is WHAT AN ANGRY OLD MAN!
I had dinner last night with a friend that suffers for PTSD from the Vietiam War and he brought up that the thing that scares him about McCain is that he obviously has PTSD to anyone who knows what it looks like. He further went on to say that Cindy McClain also displays classic spouse of a PSTD victim behavior.
It distrubed me enough to contact another Vietiam vet with PTSD and he said it was a topic of discussion with his friends at the marine corp reunion last week in Washington, DC. They generally believed it is true.
I don't see this being talked about, but while I respect his being a war hero, not all experience is good. It particularly isn't if it bad experience.
This morning I went on the internet and searched PTSD John McCain and found the following article along with others.
http://harryallen.info/?p=349
I think everyone ought to read it and then look at the photo. Is this a man in control? Do we want him in control of nuclear weapons and making decisions to start World War III? Or in control of our environment, economy or anything else.
Finally, we have John calling his wife a C**t , their basically live apart with him in Washington and her in AZ, her unfortunate history of drug abuse and I think we should all be afraid, very afraid of this man.
unless mcsame's not going to be the candidate after the convention. a new, fresh face in september/october? might just work. i've known rove for a long, long time.
For Obama to win the election by just two or three points he's going to have to go into the election with at least a ten point lead. Remember what happened to Mayor Bradley in the California gubernatorial election? He was way ahead in the polls and lost. In a recent poll 30% of the respondents stated that race will be a major factor in their decision. That ain't good news.
What sunk Tom Bradley in CA wasn't as much race as it was certain ballot initiatives that brought Republicans out to vote. Certainly race was a factor--it always is in America--but I believe it was those propositions that did the dirty work against Tom Bradley.
My dea, sacred cows are always weak. That is why they must be sacred cows. I have spent my life watching America's sacred cows. America always has something to have brain siezures about. When i was a child, someone would call the person with a better argument a "communist" and that was that. End of argument. Right now that sacred cow is military service. It is the military industrial complex that is the huge sacred cow now.
Many ordinary Americans can not imagine a world in which we do not kick innocent ass. ( And really, where are there any other jobs for a "real" American man?) They have circled the wagons around John McCain's military service and suffering. It is a sacred cow. Do not question why we should follow a man who was in a hole for five plus years. Like that's a good thing. Do not question why this man has never admitted his imprisonment was the result of a wrong-headed, unjust war. Do not look behind the curtain, Dorothy.
Love it. (You sound southern.)
If you cannot see how living in a hole and eating bugs for five years prepares a man to be the leader of the free world, then I pity you, good sir.
Good day.
I hope thats sarcasim
Regards
What can be done? Give up? How do we change our nation? Can we change a nation which will pour a trillion dollars into wars of aggression in order to secure Oil fields for multinational behemoth corporations making 10-15 $billion profit per quarter? And how quickly you forget how utterly unanimous the call for this strategy was from both sides of the aisle in late 2001 early 2002.
Almost without exception the bloggers on this site see America as a nation where the future depends on which political party is in power. Then they posit that we must have Barack Obama because "he's our only chance" and conveniently your a Democrat.
You see when the perpetrators are left to police themselves they never solve the case.
My point? You have no vehicle for change in government. They operate totally independent of the voter. Witness the recent telecom immunity decision. They know it''s wrong. You know it's wrong. But boy oh boy those telecoms sure can contribute alot of dough can't they?
The big money controls this country buddy. They don't listen to you. Or Barack Obama. They simply purchase power. And right or wrong has nothing to do with it.
Democrats should not get cocky, and should focus also on downticket races, esp. the House and Senate. Hopefully, if they have a strong-enough majority in '09, they'll find their backbone.
McCain is the goldwater of 08. Without the honestyh.
Barry Goldwater is rolling over in his grave at this comparison to McCain. As conservative as he was, it was nothing compared with the '08 version of McCain, and the rest of the far right, which it turns out, is way farther right than it used to be.
The right is now so far to the right that it is almost left! They've come around full circle BACK to the point of the original republicans, only they've also brought with them the WORST of the actual right, and added in big brother to boot!
John McCain like Hillary Clinton represents everything that is wrong with our government today.
Pontificating, preening rock star phonies who do absolutely NOTHING about ANYTHING.
Notice I'm including the democrats here. It's a good cop bad cop system. The Dems are getting ready for their star turn as good cop. Mark my words. All your going to get is more of the same gridlock.
Lot's of flowery speechifying. Lots of talk about energy independence. Lots of baloney about healthcare. Much grandstanding regarding how deeply they feel about kids education. Pipe dream hopes and dreams of "someday" leaving the Middle East.
America is deeply screwed up. The Grand Experiment is failing badly folks. The greedy bastards have actually busted out the country and the damage frankly is too great to overcome .
We are too close to the situation to realize we jumped the shark long ago and we have been going straight downhill for decades now. You don't just snap your fingers and change these things. Sorry.
No, you do not just "snap your fingers and change these things." It is going to take time. However, Senator Obama is the best chance we have to change the status quo. He is not God, but he is the best candidate to come along since JFK. Have a little faith.
I agree with Chillfactor. We need a guy to start the healing and get our respect back around the world, A guy not screwed in with the big oil, big military industrial complex (reminder Ike's warning/), multinational corporate profiteers, etc.OB is the best for America I've seen since JFK.
So what do you suggest? Give up?
Sorry that the sky is falling for you Chicken Little. I for one am proud that my life isn't tied to politics as most people in America. I can still live happily and with a positive outlook even though we have the worst president leading our country. Politics don't own me. They don't tell me how I should run my life or tell me how I feel. I decide that on my own.
And another thing, I happy that I live in America where freedom to choose a leader is unique and democratic. You don't have that freedom in North Korea, China, Nigeria and even in those middle east countries. No one puts a gun in your back and tells you to support someone or else. We can even criticize our leaders and tell them that they are no good for nothing. You do that in North Korea or China and they will shot you.
So take it for what its worth. Our country isn't perfect. But its democratic and values our freedom more than anything else. But there is no better place to live right now than in the United States.
Dear Brighterside, France. France is a better place to live. (Look up "Jingoism".) Holland. Holland is a better place to live. Don't you wonder why rich Americans proudly vacation in Europe? It's because it's NICE. In almost every way nicer than here. Hello? Read a book. None of this makes me any less proud to be a citizen of the United States of America, btw, just better informed and happy for it.
Just to let you know, All of Europe has been holding elections for a few years now.
We have not been unique in that for quit some time.
If you tell George Europe is not democratic, watch out he will invade the ones with oil.
Regards
After the last eight years the Republicans don't want to win the Presidency.
McCain is a throwaway candidate running a throwaway campaign. He knows he wil lose.
Just like Bob Dole was.....
I think you're right - the Republican kingmakers do not want to have to clean up the Augean stables Bush has made of the Nation. BUT - the Atwater - Rove lie machine is going to be operating full blast; dozens of 527's are going to be spending fortunes "Swift-boating" Obama, and the disenfranchisers and vote stealers are going to be out in full force, so McCain may accidentally win - (God Forbid!) Then what? Then all the sane Americans crawl in a hole and pull it in after themselves, because the Country is dead.
Exactly what I've been saying, but they have to make it look good... can't go down with the first punch or the crowd will spot the fix and get mad at the promoters. Got to run it a good 12 rounds or so.
Has anyone considered the possibility that this presidential race, like the last two, may be "fixed?" I have wondered why John McCain, who was considered such a "maverick" by the Republicons (no misspelling) has made such a turnaround on everything he believed just a couple of years ago. Is it possible that the Roveicans have promised him, "Do as we say, and we will make you king--well, president."?
Bush & Co. stole the last two elections. Why does everyone seem to think that will stop now?
All this I keep seeing day after day would be fine if the election was next week.
As things stand, the story of the hare and the tortoise spinges to mind.
http://www.boggartblog.wordpress.com/
McCain was written ff in August. Let's not forget that. We still haven't driven the silver spike into the vampire's heart.
Obama still needs a garlic necklace!
You must be logged in to comment. Log in or connect with
