Thinking Afresh In Aspen

The Aspen Security Forum is one of many remarkable events held each summer with the aim of bringing people together to enjoy nature, culture and to discuss Big Ideas in what was, until the 1930s, a run-down former mining town 8,000 ft up in the Rocky Mountains.
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The Aspen Security Forum is one of many remarkable events held each summer with the aim of bringing people together to enjoy nature, culture and to discuss Big Ideas in what was, until the 1930s, a run-down former mining town 8,000 ft up in the Rocky Mountains slightly west of Denver.

The formula works well, partly because getting there is so inconvenient that the only people who show up are those who really want to be there - leaving aside the growing number who arrive in private jets.

All Forum sessions are on the record, which means that the natural inclination of contributors to speak freely in such inspiring surroundings can generate more headlines than they - but perhaps not the Aspen Institute - would like.

The upside is that exchanges at the Security Forum, or the Aspen Ideas Festival held a couple of weeks earlier, often make a real contribution to wider debate.

This year we had US Secretary of State John Kerry wondering whether there might be a second EU referendum in the UK (answer: No, but several million Brits had the same thought); we had the new head of US Central Command incurring the wrath of President Erdogan for suggesting that the detention of large numbers of Turkish generals following last month's failed coup was impeding military cooperation between Turkey and the US; and we had some clear indications that the US and perhaps other Western governments may soon have to call out those foreign governments which are launching increasingly brazen cyber attacks not only for commercial gain and espionage purposes but also to manipulate our democratic processes.

The hacking and deliberate leaking of the emails of the Democratic National Committee while the Forum was taking place were followed by signs that Hillary Clinton's campaign had also been targeted and, a day later, by headline coverage in the London Times of information warfare being conducted by Russian authorities in the UK with the aim of undermining public faith in our institutions (and in some cases undisputed history).

As valuable for Aspen participants as the public debates are the conversations that go on in the margins. This year I was struck by the widespread sense that the world is facing so many unexpected and intractable issues at the same time that we seem to be living either a perfect storm or a decade of disruption - choose your metaphor.

We clearly aren't witnessing Francis Fukuyama's end of history with the universal adoption of the liberal Western values which we thought had won the Cold War.

Instead, we have the rise, and growing popularity, of strong men who have little time for those values. Donald Trump expresses his admiration for Vladimir Putin. President Erdogan of Turkey has said democracy is like a streetcar to ride only as far as your chosen destination (perhaps the Turkish nation's unequivocal response to last month's coup will give him second thoughts). China says big powers can do as they please irrespective of their commitments under international agreements like the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.

In the Middle East and beyond, we have the Sunni jihadism of Da'esh descending to ever-greater depths of depravity as it seeks to boost recruitment, counter the evidence that it is losing, and provoke reactions from the tolerant societies and genuine followers of the Prophet it so despises.

Almost more surprising because so few of us saw it coming, there is the erosion of faith in Western political institutions, systems and leaders. Technological change, globalisation, growing economic inequality and a sense that politicians are more interested in tomorrow's headlines than in doing the right thing have all taken their toll.

Across the EU, and in the US where Donald Trump continues to defy the laws of political gravity, we have seen dramatic increases in public support for fringe parties and candidates of both left and right, with a common ability to tap into the fears, uncertainties and anger of voters who feel the establishment isn't listening to them.

In Britain as in America, there is a sense that for too long now hard working, tax-paying middle class people have had to watch their incomes decline while the financiers whose greed and irresponsibility caused the meltdown of 2008 (for which the rest of us are still footing the bill) get even richer.

All this contributed to the surprise outcome of the EU referendum on 23 June. There could have been similar results if In/Out referenda had been held in other member states - with the notable exception of Germany. Yet we still hear Commission officials claiming that Brexit is a wonderful opportunity to take forward the cause of integration unencumbered by British obstructionism. What are they smoking ?

None of the root causes of these problems is going to disappear overnight. But the crisis of confidence in our institutions is both serious and urgent. Theresa May's first speech as Prime Minister in front of 10 Downing Street on 16 July was bolder than most people expected in its analysis of how recent British governments had lost their way, and what needed to be done to address inequalities and corporate greed. Under pressure from her erstwhile rival for the Democratic nomination, Bernie Sanders, Hillary Clinton has moved in a similar direction.

Seeing off the dangerous populism of Left and Right will require bold action as well as fine words. It is needed for its own sake; perhaps even for the survival of parliamentary democracy and the capitalist system. The boys have had their turn. Perhaps Angela Merkel, Theresa May and Hillary Clinton, ably supported by Christine Lagarde, can together deliver a fresh perspective.

Sir Peter Westmacott was British Ambassador to the US until January 2016 and previously Ambassador to France and Turkey. He was also a resident fellow at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.

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