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Turkey's Emergence as a 'Center Power' in Mid-East Is a Game-Changer

Posted: 06/06/10 07:16 PM ET

ISTANBUL -- From the confrontations with Israel over Gaza to the Iranian nuclear swap proposed recently with Brazil, Turkey has been in the global spotlight lately.

Because the ruling AK Party (Justice and Development Party) belongs to Turkey's Islamist tradition, many see the turn of events that has brought Turkey to the world's attention as the result of an ideological shift in Turkish foreign policy.

I would argue, however, that most of these incidents -- including the latest deadly flotilla incident that may have changed the nature of Turkish-Israeli relations forever -- stem from structural causes having to do with Turkey's new vision of itself as a "center power" in the broader Middle East.

Turkey and Israel today have such diverging visions for the Middle East that their policy preferences and approaches are increasingly irreconcilable. There is also a sense of competition. Under the rubric of model partnership, first raised by President Obama in his first visit to a majority Muslim country after his election, Ankara believes that it can forge a new relationship with the U.S. as its main partner in the region, in the process inevitably eroding Israel's most favored and protected status.

The key to fulfilling Turkey's vision is a Middle East order that is based on economic integration and political stability. Achieving peace between Israel and the Palestinians is the precondition for such an order, but Israel's current policies are blocking the path to that peace. Israel remains steadfastly against lifting the siege of Gaza, or seriously committing to a credible peace process. Turkey believes the siege must be ended and a way must be found to engage Hamas in the political process, an ambitious project to be sure.

At the same time Turkey continues to engage Iran, despite criticism that Tehran uses these efforts to buy time for further uranium enrichment. And it continues to raise the issue of Israel's nuclear arsenal in every available forum. On this score, Turkey's persistence seems to have paid off. The Non-Proliferation Treaty Review conference in New York recently passed a resolution, with US support, calling for Israel to open its nuclear program to international scrutiny.

In light of this larger context, the unnecessarily harsh and bloody Israeli raid on the Gaza aid flotilla was widely seen in Turkey as the result of a strategic decision by the Israelis to frustrate this new activism.

Even if there is a discernible Islamist ideological undertone to Turkey's current foreign policy when it comes to Israel, Turkey's increasing involvement in the broader Middle East is mainly interest driven and should be understood as such. Those who insist on an Islamist explanation of Turkey's new foreign policy conveniently ignore the openings to non-Muslim countries in the Balkans and the Caucasus not to mention Russia.

The most clearly elucidated vision of Turkey's new interest-driven activism comes from Ahmet DavutoÄŸlu, the current foreign minister. In his view, Turkey's location at the center of what he calls the Afro-Eurasian space -- where the great empires of history once reigned -- enables it to rise to the status of a center power of the whole region. By eliminating conflicts with its neighbors zero problems Turkey will be able to consolidate its regional leadership and play a key global role in the post-Cold War strategic environment.

According to DavutoÄŸlu, four principles guide relations with other regional actors: a) a secure neighborhood based on a common understanding of security; b) high level political dialogue with all; c) economic interdependence in regional relations, making borders irrelevant by creating free trade zones (Turkey and several of its neighbors lifted visa requirements for travelers and signed a multitude of trade, transportation and investment agreements); d) multicultural, multi-religious coexistence and harmony.

Turkey's emergence as an increasingly confident, perhaps overconfident, independent player will have important consequences for the shape of the geopolitical landscape in the decades ahead. Facing apparent rejection as an aspirant to EU membership, Turkish public opinion has more or less decided that it is better to go its own way. Ironically, as the disunity of the EU causes it to fade in global influence, Turkey will become even more important as a regional power.

Turkey's transatlantic ties will be increasingly defined by its bilateral relations with the United States instead of as part of Europe if EU-Turkey relations don t take a turn for the better soon. Iran on the one hand, and Israel on the other, could present serious obstacles to a new mode of cooperation between the US and Turkey or Turkey could be a key player in helping resolve both conflicts. In either case, the new relationship will stand on a more equal basis than at any time in modern history.

 
ISTANBUL -- From the confrontations with Israel over Gaza to the Iranian nuclear swap proposed recently with Brazil, Turkey has been in the global spotlight lately. Because the ruling AK Party (Justi...
ISTANBUL -- From the confrontations with Israel over Gaza to the Iranian nuclear swap proposed recently with Brazil, Turkey has been in the global spotlight lately. Because the ruling AK Party (Justi...
 
 
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11:32 PM on 06/24/2010
I love Turkey. Very cool place. Here is a rather interesting fact about Turkey and America. Which very few Americans know.

The Avedis Zildjian Company is a cymbal manufacturer founded in Istanbul by an Armenian named Avedis Zildjian in the time of the Ottoman Empire. Currently located in the United States, it is the world's largest and #1 manufacturer of cymbals.[1] At nearly 400 years old, Zildjian is the oldest family-run business in America[2] and one of the 320 oldest companies in the world. They also sell drum-related accessories, such as drum sticks and cymbal bags.

I love how the oldest family business in America is actually Turkish.
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Ralph Boyd
Look, . . right behind you!
11:49 AM on 06/09/2010
We know from the Unifil forces in Lebanon that Israel intends to invade very soon. The question is will the Turkish Air Force and Navy intercede on Lebanon's behalf.
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Puller58
Man of Mystery
07:54 AM on 06/08/2010
Turkey may want to be a player in the region, but the region may have other ideas...
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tallen
panem et circenses
05:24 PM on 06/07/2010
When will Turkey be held up to an international investigation into their persistent and indiscriminate bombings of Kurdish civilians?
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10:42 AM on 06/07/2010
Is there something wrong with HuffPost cencors? I see the mostspiteful and hateful remarks here but everything I write gets labeled "pending approval". Is this no longer a non biased site? Do you have to display a certain side of an argument to get through unfettered?
11:10 AM on 06/07/2010
Do you find support for ending Turkish occupation of Cyprus, admitting Armenian genocide and stopping oppression of Kurds " spiteful"?
If yes, then I find your comment in extremely questionable taste.
Mildmannered
"Be excellent to each other"
02:41 PM on 06/07/2010
The PKK is a a militant Kurdish separatist group, a terrorist group which started as a a Marxist-Leninist organization in 1974.
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11:26 AM on 06/08/2010
No but I do find your lack of comprehension troubling. I did not point out any certain post or reference but you needed something as a lead-way into your tirade. Good try but idiotic or just plain stoopid.
11:39 AM on 06/07/2010
Look no further than the post before yours. "Turkey is just a thirld world hellhole run by fanatic bullies."
09:50 AM on 06/07/2010
If there is an Islamist ideological undertone to the AKP's policies, then why do Turkish citizens not have the right to wear headscarves in universities (should be considered a human right) and people are not permitted to pray at school/work/etc. Sounds more like an anti-Islamic authoritarian government.
09:42 AM on 06/07/2010
Breaking a blockade is an act of war and consequently, Turkey must be expelled from NATO.
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GandenT
03:51 PM on 06/07/2010
Establishing a blockade is an act of war; what's your point?
08:58 AM on 06/07/2010
You Turks don't know Israelis, there will be ruthless retaliations against Turkey behind the scene. Ask your Arabs and Iranians friends who tricked you about that.
10:19 AM on 06/07/2010
ah but you don't Turks and their history if you think you can scare them with threats.
10:25 AM on 06/07/2010
I know Turks and I know that you are big mouth and bullies with a small brain. Believe it or not but there will be painful retalations against Turkey to deter you from further agressions.

Turks are poor bargainers and are overselling what they have not. Moreover, they have been fooled by Syrians, Iranians and maybe Europeans.

You Turks are racists and believe that others are weak.
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sistersuperior
union made
01:14 PM on 06/07/2010
You look forward to "ruthless retaliation" against the Turks. You are unwavering in your belief that Israelis are so superior in intelligence that they must have some trick planned for the Turks. It's simply not possible, in your opinion, that Israel has been outplayed.

Do you think, maybe, that you should step back a bit and gain just a little objectivity.
01:29 PM on 06/07/2010
According to Debka, the Turkish intelligence fooled Israel by telling them that there will be no violence. That's why the soldiers has no sufficient equipment to fight an hostile mob.

But in the meantime, the Turkish government paid mercenaries to board this boat and start the fighting.
08:54 AM on 06/07/2010
The Erdogan move was ridiculous, he wanted to prove by his agressivity that Turkey is a power of the Middle East which is partially true but which totally false compared to Israel. Moreover, he is misreading Israel by thinking that Israel will to have good relationship with Turkey is weakness. Turkey is not that important that it deserves to be appeased.

The Cold War is over and Turkey is not anymore a shield against a Russian invasion. Consequently, the agressive game played by the Turks when they invaded Cyprus cannot work anymore.

If Erdogan is smart, he will work at building good relationships with Israel and will apologize for what he did. But he will not because he gone too far.

Turks are losers.
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10:39 AM on 06/07/2010
You seem to want everyone to bow down to Israel. You are Israeli or have deep Israeli sympathies. Israel is not a super power that can keep sticking its finger in the eye of the rest of the world up to and including its allies.
10:50 AM on 06/07/2010
Cut your propaganda, Turks are on the verge of war with Israel after their military agression. Turks bullies are the one who believe that everybody must bow down to them because they are Muslim supremacists.
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Puller58
Man of Mystery
07:53 AM on 06/08/2010
Erdogan's intelligence is going to be proved or disproved by how he deals with Israel. He has his own country to run and needs to address it's needs rather than concern himself with Israeli demands.
08:06 AM on 06/07/2010
It will be better economically for turkey to align themselves with the Middle East to form an economic bloc but they understand it is unsustainable in the long run. Having a pact with Russia does not change anything to EU and West. Russia and EU have also many economic pact alongside many other nations in the East. EU have seen it and they know there is nothing to worry about economically,,infact its vice versa..as they fear the influx of turkish immigrants..Turkey have per capita income of around $5000-$7000 against Western EU of average $30000..and they have still huge social and weathy gap e.t.c At the end of the day Capitalism will still last..thats cold fact..Turkey needs to put its house in order..and lots of improvements..About US-Turkey-Israel..its all about interests and US will "utilise" Turkey with its interests in place..soon it would pull out of Iraq(key area for Turkey co-operation)..use azbeirjan e.t.c as military launchpad in Afghanistan..and role of turkey would be used as only middle east partner not much..For Israel they would still remain Heartbeat of US not because of AIIPAC but conservatives americans(democrats partly and majority GOP)would still support Israel irrespective of any administration..liberals are part and dont have enough numbers to change anything in US in the Long Run..Its also a cold fact...
07:50 AM on 06/07/2010
How will EU regret rejecting Turkey? Economical or cultural? If its economical there are more than 10 member countries in the Eastern Europe pleading to Join EU and they have the potential of numbers and economic potential too. Europe will lose nothing in the long time as they will integrate more members from Eastern Europe. European citizens are definitely afraid of Islamic culture in their society maybe its true or not but they are already experiencing it loads of Turkish legal/illegal immigrants in German, France and others EU nations who do not integrate well and its not a secret it would be tough to integrate islamic culture and western liberalization like in EU. For this reason of cultural threat from islamic perspectives it would be hard to integrate the two blocs(EU and Islamic Turkey). So cultural Europe would be better off having some eastern european countries than Turkey.
Economic loss?? I doubt there would be any economic loss in the Long term. Turkey need to improve its socio-politico structures first, it has weak structures and along it PKK , e.t.c and itself has an inner conflict of conservatives(Islamist) who wish to drive the country to the right and liberals who feel its a wrong direction.At the end of the end the islamist will tend to loose
07:17 AM on 06/07/2010
Turkey's military is the one faction that has been a road block in the Islamization of Turkey, but the Islamists are working on it.
2/2010
"ISTANBUL (Hurriyet)–Turkish police have detained 17 former generals, 4 active duty admirals, 27 officers and 1 petty officer. The interior minister said they are fullfilling the requests of the judiciary. Meanwhile Gen. Ilker Basbug has delayed a planned visit to Egypt because of the developments."

/asbarez.com/77749/dozens-of-turkish-generals-officers-arrested-on-ergenekon-suspicions/

also the terrorists who bombed the Russian subways trained in Turkey and Turkey has taken no action against these training camps.

Someone is whispering " caliphate" in Turkey's ear
06:04 AM on 06/07/2010
Turkey is a big country, lots of resources, lots of tourism, and a long history going for it--it'll be fine, sans EU. I think, in the end, the West will look at this time of rejecting Turkey as a mistake.
06:42 AM on 06/07/2010
I agree 100%. Turkey is emerging as a key figure internationally. Russia has smartened up and is extended warm hands towards Turkey. America's failure to stand behind such a key ally will one day come back to bite America in the ass as Turkey has proven that the country is not a lapdog.
In the Arab world. the flotilla attack has cemented Erdagon's position as a leader, the Arabs were quite accustomed to seeing Pan-Arab leaderships fail. The Turks should not be under-estimated.
Mildmannered
"Be excellent to each other"
02:10 PM on 06/07/2010
good posting
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chlai88
Change is the only constant
05:20 AM on 06/07/2010
Israel's neocons obviously did not foresee pushing Turkey into the forefront as an important player in their botched commando attempt. It could very well be what Turkey wanted. Now Tel Aviv have a real challenger in Ankara to contend with unlike other Mid-East lame ducks including Egypt, Syria, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, etc.
05:56 AM on 06/07/2010
Yep. Moreover, it was their only reliable partner in the region--weird strategy, Israel.
05:14 AM on 06/07/2010
I wouldn´t be surprised if events in Turkey turned to worse before the end of July. Some "Kurdish" extremist group (incited by a foreign country) will attack Turkish interrests. This would be the best way to shift focus in Turkey away from Israel.

It´s simple math, just wait and see.
05:46 AM on 06/07/2010
But that foreign country will be doomed, Don't underestimate Turkey.